Vice Index Watch the China Trade Economic indicators
THE MONEYBALL TRADER
The Moneyball Trader is a weekly advisory providing traders and investors with full research and analysis of the top companies to buy or sell on a weekly time horizon. The advisory’s approach is based on comprehensive data analysis.
ANDREW ZATLIN
Andrew began his career as a trained economist, eventually focusing on consumer trends as a Research Fellow at the Kyoto University Economic Research Institute. Wanting more hands-on experience in the business world, he went to the Haas School of Berkeley for his MBA in 1992.
Andrew’s next stop was Silicon Valley at the onset of the digital revolution. The timing couldn’t have been better.
As a 20-year veteran of the semiconductor and networking world, Andrew has participated in the emergence of the new global economy, one based on the unique characteristics of the digital world and a changing global supply chain.
The first-hand experience with the 21st century economy and what makes it so different has enabled Andrew to outperform Wall Street experts. His macroeconomic forecasts consistently rank at the top of Bloomberg polls. Even better, he has harnessed the deep understanding of the way modern companies operate to find the key data points that predict which companies are likely to beat or miss their earnings.
Andrew Zatlin is a leading forecaster of key economic benchmarks. His forecasts are published on Bloomberg and for the year to date, he has been named:
Matt, and I met a few years back when we were starting to invest in apartments. Having the right network is critical and its important to grow with people. Make no mistake this type of investing is high risk high reward but it’s a whole lot of fun. When I build my base of cashflowing Class B and C apartments I will look to trophy assets like these.
You can invest as a partner in on all kinds of things… even Broadway shows!
Capitulation budget to produce the show (staff costs, set costs, etc)
$8-$10 million for a lower budget but this can go up to $20 million.
Recoupment schedule (assumptions on ticket prices and demand) – Hoping to get back money in 6 months and hoping to tour for a few years.
500-800k costs per week.
Leverage is low in comparison to real estate investing but this is a high risk!
4/5 shows don’t make it past initial run
Do it for fun and because you love the art!
But…
If a show is very popular you could be involved in the tour. Think of it of a phase 3 portion of some past assisted living and RV Park developments.
http://mjppg.com/about-us/
Erica Lynn Schwartz
Erica Lynn Schwartz is a Tony-nominated performing arts professional with a wide
variety of theatrical development and production experience.
Erica has over 15 years of experience in Live Entertainment including producing
Broadway shows. Her Broadway producing debut was Neil LaBute’s Reasons To Be
Pretty (TONY, Drama Desk & Outer Critics Circle Nominations for Best Play) and she
is currently a co-Producer on Moulin Rouge! The Musical. Erica has invested in several
shows including the smash-hit Hamilton and an international tour of Wicked.
Erica has worked on several Broadway shows including Wicked, The 25th Annual
Putnam County Spelling Bee, I Love You, You're Perfect, Now Change, Movin'
Out, Doubt, and Hairspray. She ran the licensing, booking and touring division of
Daryl Roth Theatrical Licensing, lead a $25.5 million capital campaign for MCC
Theater's newest complex and managed the reopening of Lincoln Center’s Alice Tully
Hall.
Erica is a graduate of Northwestern University where she holds the honor of being named
a Distinguished Alumnus in 2008. She is currently the General Manager for the Emerson
Colonial Theatre in Boston, Massachusetts, where she resides with her husband and their
two daughters.
For more information about Erica and Avalon Road Productions, please visit
www.avalonroad.net
Matt Picheny, PMP
Matt Picheny is the Managing Partner at MJP Property Group, a real estate investment
company. He has been involved in single family, multifamily & vacation rentals for over
13 years.
Matt has experience in property valuation, acquisition, new construction, rehab projects,
property leasing, management, financing and is a Fannie Mae approved buyer. With an
investment portfolio of over 1,350 units, he is primarily focused on acquiring and
repositioning multifamily communities.
As a PMI certified Project Management Professional, Matt has a proven track record of
delivering projects on budget, on schedule and at the highest quality standards. He is a
marketing veteran whose 20-year New York City career spanned several of the world’s
largest advertising agencies, producing award-winning projects for Fortune 500 clients
including Verizon, IBM, and Coca-Cola.
For more information about Matt and MJP Property Group, please visit www.mjppg.com
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Buying a brand new car can be incredibly annoying with all the haggling.
Here are some steps to follow when trying to get the best price:
1. Use the Internet to do your research on which car you want and exactly what level you want (color, features, and packages). Check out edmunds.com and many other car forums.
2. Go to the car dealership and test drive Don’t negotiate with them. Walk out and tell them you are not interested. Go to cars.com and search for the exact New Model of your car. You will know the cheapest price they are currently selling for. This is good information but the price will be dictated by the amount of demand and how you position yourself in negotiation.
3. I personally always lease because as investors you want to put the lease amount of cash down so you can put into your next turnkey rental or syndication deal.
4. Look up all the car dealerships around your zip code within a 500 miles radius to find the dealerships with the largest volume. You might need to build a list of 20 dealerships and
find out the person responsible for Internet or fleet sales along with their email addresses.
5. Come up with a concise email explaining exactly what you want to “BCC everyone.” If you can time it do it the end of the month or quarter when dealers are most desperate to sell.
Here is an example email:
Hi,
I am very interested in purchasing the car below: 2010 Mercedes C Class, Exterior – Black Sapphire Metallic, Navigation, and Sport Package.
I can be a little flexible with the exterior color.
I’m a SERIOUS BUYER and will be paying fully in CASH. My zip code is 12345 for pricing calculations.
I need you to provide me with an out the door (tax and title fee) quote by tomorrow the latest since I’m looking to get this car by the end of the week.
I will need your phone number to contact you. For your information, I’m request pricing from many of your competitors so be sure to provide me with the lowest quote possible. Be sure the out of the door price is approved by the Manager. I’m ready to buy and I do not wish to waste anyone’s time.
Thank you for your time, Hustler
7. Once the offers start to pour in, take some time to think it over. Don’t make a fast commitment and wait for all the offers to come in. Pick some of the top offers and time to negotiate further. Give them a call and get them to lower the price some more. Some dealers will try to not get into a bidding war or require you to come into the facility.
Should I lease or buy?
Short answer: If you are an investor about to generate more than 12% a year ROI then you want more capital in your pocket to invest in more assets, therefore you should lease a car. If you are not an investor and especially if you can’t seem to accumulate any savings you should buy because it is a forced savings account. Same concept about buying or renting a home.
Long answer….
Pros of Leasing a Car
First off who wants to drive a crappy car?!?
Life is too short and for those of use who work hard and invest right find time more valuable than money… and time spent in a crappy car is wasted time on this earth.
Putting out the Safety Card – newer cars have rear view cameras, more airbags, and lane assistance technologies, mine even drives and parks its self… it could even prevent you from being injured or killed. I know some of you SPC Nation are cheapos and I myself was them as I rode my dangerous 50cc moped in the Seattle rain so I would not have to pay $4 per gallon in 2010.
Leasing a car, in many cases, is cheaper than buying a car on payments that extra cashflow along with a large downpayment can go to investing in cashflowing assets that grow your portfolio 20-30%.
Its simple math: Figure out what the opportunity cost would be if you used the money for a downpayment on a car instead of investing the downpayment into a downpayment on a turnkey rental or syndication.
Did I mention that you don’t have to worry about fixing anything on the car. And you can drive it like a rental!!! Cause it is.
Sure the rental property will have its issues come up but you really should not buy a property that cashflows in the first place.
Either way you are going to buy a car which is a depreciating asset. At least buy an asset that appreciated and better yet produces income too.
While it may be more financially prudent to buy an older more inexpensive car, leasing a newer car might end up costing you less in medical bills down the road.
THE PROS OF BUYING A CAR
It you want to fit in with everyone else who does not want debt and things this is the way to go as a means to justify an old car then so be it.
Look cars are not everything and it might not be your spurge but the numbers say you should rent UNLESS this is you:
You like to install a lift kit, upgrade the stereo, tint the windows, or do that strange inclined wheel thing that is the first sign of me getting old. In this case your car is “ratchet” and you are likely broke anyway.
Quantitate easing (QE) is scheduled to start tapering which means that the inflated stock market might be coming back down to real life Price/Earning rations.
Many of us who have been in our Hui community prior to 2020 knows that when the government says one thing that it takes awhile for it to actually happen. But that is just my educated speculation that tapering QE will be here in some for for several years to come.
That said what we have not seen yet is the eventual wave of inflation which happens when you pump trillions of dollars of fake money into the system.
People who use debt effectively will come out ahead as the tides rise. Where those who are unable to get into inflation hedging assets (boats – figuratively speaking) will have what little wealth they have eroded away.
Specifically… if you are paying down debt – more than the minimums….
Student loans, home loans, car loans.
You are doing exactly what the system/bank wants you to do.
We are not telling you to have your debts to go into arrears. Instead we are saying to pay off the minimums on your loans and focus other cashflow to buying more income producing assets such as real estate.
From 2009-2013, as I was buying rentals on my own I definitely made my share of mistakes. One of these was to paying down my mortgage (debt). Here is one of those checks where I paid down my debt. Little did I know that sophisticated investors don’t do this.
Debt is something that is generally regarded as a bad thing. On the surface, it makes sense. Personal finance teachers are very against debt. They offer advice like freezing your credit cards in a block of ice, paying down your mortgage as quickly as possible and never splurging on a $5 latte as ways to avoid or eliminate debt.
But debt is a tool, just like a hammer is a tool. A hammer can do a lot of damage, especially if you hit yourself over the head with one. The same principle applies to debt.
That’s why you’ll observe smart real estate investors, those people growing legacy wealth, excited about accumulating more debt to acquire properties. There is a difference between “good” debt and “bad” debt.
“Bad” debt is used to purchase things that do not produce more money. “Good” debt makes money by being invested in assets that produce income and capital gains.
I have been asked a lot about whether certain assets or liabilities are good debt or bad debt. There is no rule that a certain interest rate is the split between good debt or bad debt. Although most consumer debt (credit cards, personal loans, etc.) falls into the latter category, it’s not particularly because they generally come with interest rates over 20% — but because they create little to no income.
For example, a 4% student loan that allows Junior to get a college degree that doesn’t help advance his career would be one instance of bad debt. In contrast, good debt could be a 12% interest rate on a bridge loan to acquire an apartment building that produces 15-25% a year profit. As a bonus, when the funds required for the interest payments plus principal payments come from the investment itself (i.e., the tenant pays the mortgage for you) the loan is essentially free and creates cash flow.
There is a large misconception out there that all debt is bad and there is no difference between good debt and bad debt. The misinformed investor looks only at debt amount and interest rate. But the sophisticated investor looks at cash flow and the impact on net worth. Cash flow is the figurative oxygen that keeps you financially alive, and the impact on net worth is monitored by the percentage of return of equity.
Think of it this way: If you had to wait till you had all the money to purchase a rental property or home in hand, you might never acquire any asset that had the potential to create cash flow above the interest rate payments.
Semi-sophisticated investors may try to not leverage themselves to the max by taking a loan-to-value ratio of less than 80%, considering this to be “safer.” However, putting up a larger down payment may drain your cash reserves. The savviest investors know that security lies in the monthly cash flow, which builds up a large cash reserve account. On the flip side, taking out a smaller loan for a smaller asset will yield less cash flow.
Investing without debt is like cooking without gasoline: Of course, gasoline can be dangerous, but if we learn to use it properly, we can see better results. Investors who utilize debt can transcend the current money paradigm that most people live by. Numbers people see it as a simple argument of interest/return rate arbitrage where they pair a lower interest rate with a higher rate of return. It’s a game of arbitrage and it is at the core of the banking industry. Is Your Debt Good Or Bad?
To evaluate your investments and create an action plan, write all your debts and assets out in a list.
Write down the description, balance amount, interest rate per year and what income it is producing as a percentage per year from the initial cost it took to acquire that asset. Identify which assets are producing the least amount of money after paying off the debt service (interest). Some of these may be negative. Consider selling or liquidating some of those in order to acquire assets that produce positive income.
Real estate is a time-tested asset that produces income and is a commodity where the demand is not going away. However, it’s advised to also consider other assets that produce income.
It will take some time but if you prudently leverage your holdings with more and more good debt, you will be able to reap the rewards of a guilt-free, bad-debt splurge such as your dream car, vacation home or private-school education for Junior, because it will be paid off by the cash flow from the other good debt investments. In those situations, you will find a new level of ownership of that purchase because you truly earned it.
Saying a loan to value (LTV) is too high on a deal is a blanket statement. Much like saying a steak takes 9 minutes on medium-high heat… BBQ aficionados will give you some formula based on weight, thickness, and then a core temperature. We are real estate aficionados! You can learn to be one here.
Most of our group these days are Accredited investors with a net worth over 1M and/or make over $250k a year. That said you might be well on your way with a net worth over 250k and/or make $100k a year. If you are any of the above join our club and invest alongside us in real assets. If you are to either of those levels yet you might want to clean up your finances and use this debt elimination system. Plus ask for our free Basic Financial eCourse.
Daniel Goodenoughis the author of the recently released book of fiction, The Caravan of Remembering, A Roadmap for Experiencing the Awakening of Your Life’s Mission. He has been a professional musician, research scientist, and graphic designer. In the past 30 years, he has taught thousands of students through The Way of the Heart program to discover their authentic life’s path, and to walk that path in the world. Recently, he has beenconsulting with companies to help them do business differently, responding to the today’s changing business environment with mindfulness, integrity, and heart.
Trapped in his life as a designer in Chicago that is both meaningless and safe, David hears a call he can’t resist to enter Caravan, a timeless, mystical world where he travels with mentors and other seekers to find his life’s meaning. Tools for the journey, including journaling and immersion in life’s story, are embedded in this rich tale, grounded in the author’s 30 years of working with life mission seekers. A series of questions in the back of the book helps readers apply what they’ve learned to their own lives.
The Caravan of Remembering: A Roadmap for Experiencing the Awakening of Your Life’s Mission.
www.caravanofremembering.com
www.thewayoftheheart.com
Topics discussed:
What is life’s mission, and why is it important in our lives?
How can we can discover our authentic life’s mission?
How can we answer the questions: “What did I come here to do, embody, and serve? Why am I here? Who am I called to become?”
How can becoming aware of our life’s mission help us to make better choices in today’s changing work environment, where young people may have up to 16 different careers during their lifetime?
How can we conduct business differently, with mindfulness, purpose, and respect for each other and the environment?
How can new ways of doing business actually lead to greater financial success? (Daniel has examples of this.)
[First in a series of 2019 Hui Club member interviews and live coaching sessions. No more interviews of the same old people, these are real people just like you].
Article Link: Text “simple” to 314-665-1767 to download the Hui Google Drive files and the 2018 Rental Property Analyzer
For a free electronic version of my bestselling book in 12+ categories text the word “ebook” to 587-317-6099.
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Pardon the grammar – I’m an Engeneer, Enginere, Engenere… I’m good with math!
________Here are the Show Notes________
[First in a series of 2019 Hui Club member interviews and live coaching sessions. No more interviews of the same old people, these are real people just like you]
Karl is a police officer who is currently making about 35k in passive income from his properties, which consists of 18 houses and 24 apartment units and are spread across small multifamily units.
He started purchasing these properties in 2009.
He then moved into wholesaling and just basically putting his money to work through private lendings and house flipping.
He still keeps his day job as a police officer and continues to serve his community and help other people.
The high demand for a better and affordable housing in their city drove Carl to try and enter the real estate business.
Karl talks about his experiences on being a landlord and an investor. He also shares his experiences in house flipping as well as his future plans after retirement.
Please submit to me a signed and scanned, Letter of Intent with your Highest and Best Offer. And the name of your property inspector so we can coordinate a showing.
I don’t really have an asking price cause I’m too busy to figure it out. Go ahead an put in your offer assuming items are in stabilized order. If there are any glaring issues we can deduct it and get the deal done. The 5th ave, I just put in 15K of work this past month… it can be sold retail or you can turn it into a turnkey. You are basically buying it from a source (me) where I’m not trying to screw you on the deal and I try to manage issues that come up with the property as efficiently as possible.
And sorry I will not divulge how much leverage I have on this property because it is respectfully, none of your business. Also, I will not be doing seller financing (There were a couple of you who asked). Maybe you asked because it is a past joke of which you tell people “between the lines” to go screw off when someone has a ridiculous price and you inquire about seller financing. Sort of like when you don’t get selected for a job and they tell you they will “put your resume in the file.” Anyway it made me chuckle 😁
I am taking the equity that I built up and is now lazy – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/roe
After selling 7 out of 11 of my turnkeys in 2018 and blowing up my AGI… I am looking to sell the last four in 2019!
Two of my Turnkeys in Alabama are good pickups for you turnkey buyers.
I’m not desperate to sell (so don’t give me anything 10% off fair price)… that’s just annoying and wasting everyone’s time. I think I try to be transparent with everyone that these are solid properties with nothing hidden issues. The neat thing about buying from me is that you know that they are proven assets with a decreased change of buying a dud. Plus you can use my team in place so it would be very turnkey.
I’m hoping we can do a direct sale and save on the commission costs.
1) 509 20th Ave, Birmingham, Alabama – my most solid rental of all. Still with a renter in there since 2016. Rents are $875 a month.
The average price per square foot is 78.26 you home has 1,008+/- square footage so $78,886.08 for retail sale. But this is a freshly rehabbed. Our plan is to wait till spring February to sell to buyer.
I would encourage you to get your own inspector ($300) and we can split the lawyer fees to sell with title warranty and do the paperwork.
DonorsChoose.org was a little slow (and ~$200 of fees) the goodies arrived!
My students need supplies to support our Choose Love movement, a social emotional program that teaches children how to choose love in all different situations. We need clipboards, pillows, answer buzzers and much more.
My Students
My students are active, fun loving and excited to learn. They love hands on activities that allows them to engage in building and teamwork with one another. They come to class ready to learn and are eager to share their ideas with each other.
We continue to work together to build a community within our classroom that encourages each other to grow and learn from one another.
Its important that all students have a voice and that we as educators understand all of our students needs. We promote a learning environment that builds a culture within the classroom of love and understanding through learning. Every year I am blessed to have a loving and engaging group of students that encourage me to keep learning along side of them.
My Project
Our school is focusing on our Choose Love Movement this year. This social emotional program is encouraging students to choose love in all different types of situations. The program focuses on 4 components, courage, gratitude, forgiveness, and compassion. With the materials from this project, I am creating a Choose Love corner for my students to use as a space to express themselves honestly with no judgement or fear.
This Choose Love Corner is helping to “cultivate optimism, resilience, and personal responsibility” in all students.
I really want to encourage my students from an early age, a healthy way to express their emotions. A main focus of the corner will be the rug where students can take their Choose Love journals and share about anything they are feeling both at home and at school. The emphasis of the rug is also about different traits that I am hoping to instill in my students as well. Many of the items will be used by the students to make them feel comfortable sharing things in their journal that they may not feel comfortable talking about.
I am hoping that if we can teach students from an early stage and provide them with the life skills of coping with situations, it will continue to encourage a happier and stronger learning environment for all students.