Dec 2020 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/a1jxul2pPZw

All right. let’s get going here. so starting off with a few teaching points and I diving into the news to wrap out 2020.

So the teaching bike here is now, this is the time to invest is what this chart is showing because as investors we invest off of the spread between the interest rates. And the cap rates. So the cap rates is the light blue. The interest rates are the dark blue right now. The interest rates are so low. The cap rates have come down a little bit, but the interest rates have come way down as of the last couple orders and you know what everybody’s afraid and everything I’m like, this is the time to invest right now.

The spread between the interest rates and the cap rates is larger than what it normally is. see this kind of moving up and down, when it’s like this, when the spread is smaller, that’s when ideally you don’t want to be investing as investors. We make money off of the Delta between cap rates and interest rates.

And of course we apply a, usually a four to one, five to one leverage, and that’s how you make money as investors.

who are our renters? John Barnes broke it down and we’ll charge here. Most of which are 25 to 34 years old, broke down their house. So income over 50 and under 50 K I rent, I think it’s a good idea, especially if you live in a high priced area like California, Hawaii, Washington, New York.

Maybe, I don’t think it makes sense to buy. Of course the caveat is most, I guess most people fall into this caveat, like mostly bar irresponsible with their money. They can’t seem to save it effectively. So houses have forced savings account. but if you’re listening to this podcast, YouTube channel, you’re probably a little bit better than the average cat would saving their money.

These conscious of it. That’s why it’s a, just take the money and invest.

No, this is just a little diagram of which States are the most restrictive on the COVID

constraints. Not making any political statements here. But, Hawaii is down there. One of the most restrictive and on the other side is how much, is it working, right? , currently hospitalized per a hundred thousand? So if you want to see your state, you see where they fall.

so starting off with the news here, this is something that’s going to be slowly developing in 2021, but the library , which is what a lot of interest rates are governed offered. you might get a commercial loan based on, quarter point higher than lie bore, but they’re going to be changing it to Sofer, I think is what they’re called.

S O F R. And that transition is going to be happening throughout the year. The reason why they’re changing it is because , I think it has something to do with the library being so low or things are already so low. They need to fix it to something else. That’s a little lower. and supposedly the library is a little bit more erratic, but I don’t think it makes that much of a difference.

It is what it is. And it’s changing guys. That’s the takeaway, John Malone, reported by CNBC is, buying hard assets like housing to bet on currency, devaluation, or inflation, which is coming. yeah, this is why buy real estate. It’s fixed art assets like housing, and it’s a commodity.

We need more of it. And he sees substantial interest in multifamily housing. We’ll get into that a little bit here in this Alna article, where through the first 10 months of 2020, the only price class to lose ground in average occupancy among stabilized properties were class a. So those are the luxury type of properties that we stay away from.

these are like the build 19 or. Probably built after 2005, 2010, in my opinion, it’s hard to save by date, but that’s probably the best numerical differentiator of class. A, with a 1.3% decline to 92%, average occupancy. This is not an alarming little figure, but it is a few percentage points below the other three pricing classes, B, C and D, which all finished between 94% and 95%.

Class C actually went, improve. So a lot of the culprit was negative demand or, new properties coming online that Warren white absorbed, which makes sense. people are staying put through the first half of the year and even plead a second. So takeaways stick the class VC.

Out. This is, development that’s, the state of California, which you may or may not care, but I think it’s, sets precedence to what’s coming down the pipeline to California had these two big statutes, prop five and prop 19. The presidential race. Wasn’t the only thing here. It was like B that they had to, the state was split on

so California proposition 15 , which would raise taxes for commercial real estate failed. So top 15 would put further downward pressure in real estate during an already difficult time for real estate in that state. Contrary though prop 19 would allow former 55 and older, disabled or victims of natural disasters to transfer a portion of their property tax base when they sell their home and buy a new one.

And that looks like that will probably be passing at 51%. So very close, proposition would offset. By closing other people’s specifically, it eliminates unfair tax beholds used by East coast, investors, celebrities, wealthy non-California residents and trust fund hairs. yeah, I think it’s, it shows like what’s coming down the pipeline in there.

You just can’t inherit the lower tax spaces. a lot of people in California that have inherited houses in their family, the one to sell and yeah, they’re getting killed on taxes, but they might be sitting on a one to $5 million estate and a real estate, and they just don’t want to give up that good tax.

So prop 19. kind of gives up that incentive in a way. if anything’s, it takes a while for the California’s to go through it and then, think of like marijuana, right? So the rest of the country gets impacted by this, or we see it in our backyard, but it’s, coming down the pipeline.

Star Wars would read by $645 million of affordable housing. They are getting into the affordable housing workforce space and I think to get into alarm, but, I watch what the big guys are doing. Like the Blackstone’s. And I follow them closely. So 950 units in Jacksonville, Florida, and 28 communities with a total of 3,600 units, primarily in Virginia and North Carolina.

And they’re buying this stuff because it’s stable, occupancy and rents didn’t change too much of all things to a pandemic. John Burns came up with the chart, a us single family rent index. So they modeled and you can see the recession periods where it went through in 2007, eight, nine in the trough.

It’s peaked. but demand is still very strong for single family home rents based on this chart. Again, if you guys are checking this out on the YouTube or on the podcast channel, you can take it on the YouTube and all the nice graphs and graphics. Read this stuff for yourself that I put on the screen.

commercial property, executive reports that the pandemic accelerates rather than starts commercial real estate trends.

so one of the big trends is this live work play concept one question that came in, is there going to be a recession in 2021? I don’t think so. Madly, chillax, they’ve been S people say that every single six months doesn’t mean crazy

I think that you got to be careful people saying that because likely they’re trying to sell you both collect their commissions on that and you offer the gold salesman. It’s easier to sell doom and gloom than to prudently, be buying cashflow that’s for sure. so what are the trends live?

Work, play concept were, people want to be able to live in less central areas, more of the suburban areas. there’s a urban suburban divide , mostly gateway cities, high costs. Areas like New York, San Francisco, Chicago, any of these people have lost occupants during the pandemic, the evolution of cities.

So the inner ring suburbs have also grown a bit by the desire for people to work and live in places with city like features, but not in the urban core district. maybe like 20, 40 minutes outside of the downtown area. So the pandemic didn’t really start in trends, but just accelerated all of these trends, commercial property, executive reports that, construction has launched on a Houston Hyatt hotel that is associated with the Houston’s Texas medical center.

So it’s their first hospitality brand. Very interesting that a hospital that was getting involved with this type of housing, but I guess they’re seeing it as a lot of the people that come for their care, like cancer, Shimon, or whatnot, need to stay in a place. So why not, double dip.

Some trends that are coming, that I think are cool or a Chipotle like plans, their first digital restaurant, their online sales tripled in the third quarter. So they’re some of the are winners as reported by shopping center business. some of the losers are just the general shopping balls.

So while owners see VL and associates falls for chapter 11, bankruptcy, does it mean that those. Shopping malls are going anywhere. Although I do think shopping malls are not as popular, especially like the not high-end ones or the middle range ones as popular multi-housing news reports at senior housing, occupancy drops, inventory increases.

So a lot of people, they all get excited and new investors get excited by like trends like the silver Wade, people are going. Need places to live when they’re gold. I want to invest in the city living developments. All right, buddy. I’ll tell you, I haven’t found a one really good reliable operator quite yet.

even though all the trends point that way, I wouldn’t be messing as a passive and I sure as heck, wouldn’t be investing as an operator in assisted living. That’s where you get these doctors or nurses. They think that they know medical stuff. Assisted living. It’s not really medical stuff. You just hire a doctor to do that stuff for you.

It’s more of a facility management and a marketing and sales thing than a technical medical thing.

so we take a break here. The Easter egg this month is. Check out the newly branded family office, Ohana mastermind. So this is the group with the, a credit investors in, or if you would like to be a credit investor, this is the way to get around. A lot of you guys are asking, how do I find syndication deals?

How do I find like good people to work with? you got to build your network with the right people. If you’re tired of screwing around at the local Rhea. Or going to the free Facebook groups or the other free forums out there with just a bunch of folks under a quarter million dollars net worth all day long.

now’s the time to step up, see what we have to offer simple passive castro.com/journey. And we are about ending our first incubator group, which is the little mini group coaching group, where we help people get their first remote investment. that one should be wrapping up this next couple of months.

And, we’ll be looking to do another one early in 2021. So if you guys are interested in that, please let me know. But, yeah, transitioning to some of my personal stuff that I’ve been working on. if you guys have any ideas, some things you’re working on. Let me know. My email isLane@civilpassivecashflow.com, but, first is growth.

So we changed the mastermind to a more of a virtual mastermind. last year we did it in Hawaii for a few days, but with everything that’s going on, I’m moving this virtually. So we’re calling this the bubble. If you going to get more details of this, go to simple, pass a castle.com/bubble, and it’s gonna be awesome.

it’s going to be primarily networking with other participants instead of just death by PowerPoint or death buys, random sweepers pitching their product. Yeah, trust me. If you’re not happy, I’ll refund your money. I’m super confident with this. Like I got some tricks up my sleeves. You guys will see those.

You guys do attend over the weekend. It’s going to be a half day on a Saturday and Sunday. Martin Luther King weekend in January of 2021, contribution, yeah, rebranding the family office , mastermind to be more of a collaborative thing. We’ve got some new initiatives there to keep older investors around.

they might’ve learned everything, but they just want to meet new people, grow their network with new high quality working professionals. and then this I added just a little while ago about. having some success for the shade line hackers. If you guys haven’t tried this, I’ve got a simple pass, a castle.com/ straight-line.

But yeah, we had an investor that tried it out since, began in may 15, 20, 20 great thing to do when you’re stuck at home, you get your credit cards together and start renting out authorized user slots. He made. $1,800 and just over a few months, and he’s got $750 left in pending commissions.

So it’s coming back to him. Awesome. significance, it makes me more proud of, what we’re doing as a group is that we are not letting fear get in a way, and we’re seeing the data for what it is. And this is what it is. I started at the talk with the teaching point. Of the same slide investors make their money on the Delta between the interest rates and the Tapper.

It’s simple as that. Of course there’s outliers, right? You want to pick up properties that are already under market that exceed the cap rate here and have multiple opportunities for value add. But yeah, if you’re picking up existing cashflow and even in tough times, you still cashflow. a lot of the deals, the stabilized assets, you can stay above 50, 60% occupancy are still in the black, a lot of the assets that we had through the pandemic for 200 units.

we’re still making money on all of those. none of them came down to the red level, out of probably like 25 projects, maybe one or two of them kinda got close, but. I think that’s pretty good. All things considered being a pandemic. some things I’m dealing with in terms of uncertainty because in search needs not necessarily a bad thing, but, yeah, just investing when everyone is waiting for COVID or the election to be over.

I get it from one perspective, but you got to keep moving forward at the tenants are cash flows, the cash flows, and you can do your sensitivity analysis, still cash flows through tough times then just to keep buying cashflow dollar cost average. and then a lot of the uncertainty is what’s going to happen next year.

I’m seeing it as I want to get traveling. I want to have some fun. when’s Pfizer going to come up with their vaccine, is it they’re saying it’s here, it’s 90% effective. Of course this is from the fires or websites that you can’t really believe, but they, it says, but, yeah, , hopefully this thing works right.

So we can get back out there. Let’s get stuck in our homes all day long. how did I, my creating certainty in my life while I’m creating another infinite banking policy for myself. I probably had four or five deals, went full circle and cashing out, and I’m going to take some of those profits, put it into an internet banking policy and pull it right on and start investing next year.

I like this because it adds life insurance, but that’s not the reason why I’m getting it, but it makes a nice little yield four or 5% tax-free because it’s life insurance and. Because it’s life insurance, it’s often table creditors or litigators. So that makes me feel a little bit better from an asset protection perspective.

if you guys, haven’t learned about this, go to simple, passive castle.com/banking and, on the last 10 years, love and connection, you know what things slowing down here in December and, things will definitely pick up in January. I, got an invitation out to your folks.

If we haven’t connected, let’s get on the phone. let’s do your onboarding call to the week club, put it simple past castro.com/gift. And for those of you guys who I have connected with and our current investors or of, in our deals, if you haven’t connected in the last year, let’s get on the phone.

let’s talk star, let’s see what’s going on and see how I can help, see what’s coming on the horizon. some of the resistance and verus distraction noise that I’ve been working with is pushing out larger projects in time. I got the syndication eCourse coming out soon. Hopefully it’ll be out during Christmas time.

I was trying to get you guys some kind of cool like promotion for black Friday instead. I didn’t get it done. So I think the, probably the next couple of weeks we’ll see the eCourse for the syndication and it’s going to be amazing. I’m still confident in this one, again, that. I got that money back guarantee on it.

the fun stuff here. So do dads, I bought two dishwashers cause I want to take all this stuff out of one. And when I make dirty dishes, I’ve put in the other, so they never have to put my dishes away. these things are big and they’re a little annoying, but that’s just an idea.

You guys to create your lifestyle. That’s it simple, passive cashflow is all about. Now. Let’s go to these questions. interest rates for the next two years at interest rates have popped up a little bit. I would say maybe a 10th of a point, but. I’ll ask the question to you.

Like, why do you care? what does it really matter if the cap rates are going to come back up and interest rates will go back up and again, as an investor, you’re just making money on the Delta work difference doesn’t matter. but, and I don’t know what interest rates are going to go, but if you were asking me everything I’m reading and everything I’m hearing, I think interest rates are going to be probably both for the next couple years.

It might come up. No slightly border point half a point during that time. But I don’t think they’re going to see interest rates on commercial debt in the five, 6% range for quite a while. But I do think inflation is coming. how else I’m going to pay for all this trillions of dollars stimulus and then the last stimulus plan is definitely coming.

Okay. It’s for sure. It’s coming. We need it. And I think for sure. It’s coming. Just like how you joke about the government shut down. I guess it’s not a joke that the government did shut down, but we all know it’s a joke because they’ll just create some kind of bill that extends the obligation.

Isn’t often rolling again. It’s just like the stimulus plan. it’ll come. and then when it is. Also as investors are going to be the ones who benefit the most on it. I guess what I’m seeing, I was reading an article yesterday about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the commercial side for the large non-recourse the agency loans that we get.

They’re creating their quotas for next year and it looks good, man. they didn’t hit their quarters this year, obviously because volumes of sales transactions were down, which is why they did a lot of refinances. The refinances were awesome. They’re being very lenient on refinances. because they needed to have that quote, but yeah, next year is when things start to open up.

it’s probably going to, because a lot of that ending is it’s very free and flowing. when is a good time to buy REITs, never, it’s a good time to buy, reach beats, or retail investments you didn’t killed. And something I learned recently. we did a , three hour webinars and there was like the one tidbit in it that I learned was like REITs.

, they have a timeline where they have to crystallize, so return and exit and everybody else. So they don’t make good decisions. They don’t make long-term decisions and they have to pay 90% of their revenue or their income to investors, which sounds good. Wait, what if it wasn’t, it made more sense to put the money back into the assets so that the acid is more secure and so you can bump rents and do that type of stuff.

And that’s just the one way, like the reeds are confined there and read such as retail investments. You’ve got good stealing because the only and middlemen they’re not touching her, she feeds I’m not a retail investor. that’s for the average Joe out there by investments. All about share market performance.

I don’t understand that. Or shouldn’t be tied to that. any promising markets if 2021 when compared to 2020 and not really. there’s some places in Tennessee, like Chad and Duka the Carolinas always keep coming up. Florida, Jacksonville, but, I’m a little scared that I think Huntsville is finally coming on the map.

A lot of people are finding out about Alabama. but yeah, mostly it’s the stain big storylines, Texas. Everybody’s getting the heck out of California, Chicago, New York, all these high price, postal markets going to places that make more sense. this was always happening and again, had the pendant.

I did not create new trends that accelerated trends such as people getting the heck out of those overprice areas and into more like the secondary tertiary markets. but that’s, doesn’t mean that you can’t find a deal in Jackson, Mississippi. I don’t want to, not Jackson knows if he’s not a good bike and I don’t think it is, but that doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t invest there and deal with that undervalued breakfast is what I’m saying.

If you invest at Jackson, Mississippi, I’m sorry. , last question here. Can we expect a foreclosure due to vendor random thinks of anything silly? I’m sure. I just personally don’t buy. Unstabilized assets. So if a property is going through foreclosure apartment, then I wouldn’t be buying it in the first place.

So I don’t care. I’m sure it is, but it’s at one point it’s just Biden’s going to kill people. That’s making over $400,000 taxes, but I don’t care because I don’t, I’m not going to make my HCI that high. I’m going to put away lower. so it’s a moot point to me. I don’t care. that makes sense.

I don’t care if there’s foreclosures coming. I don’t really, I wouldn’t buy those properties. I don’t buy problem properties. I buy properties with sellers, we have problems. and maybe a foreclosure does expedite that, but yeah, the occupancy would probably did and I wouldn’t buy it, but if you’re a single family home investor, Number one.

And what the heck? Why are you doing that? yeah, if your net worth is under half a million, that’s fine. But you got to build your net worth and putting your sweat equity to doing that. But if you’re a credit investor, like most of us in our group, that’s just not a good use of your time, in my opinion.

but for some of the younger kids that are listening, yeah, I’m sure there’s going to be a lot of single family home foreclosures coming out. I’m sure. just. As there always is nothing new. I don’t think they’re sending any new, and like some kind of housing crisis. I think that’s just like people like celebrities trying to sell you two views and stuff like that.

I just don’t really see it happening. again, there’s always people trying to sell, like on fear, like the world is coming to the ad, these human forms, or, what’s worse is the people on Facebook. They always just relayed this. Long, like texts about the world is coming to an end. then you look back at that was from like 2012 or 2016, or whenever it had never happens.

I just buy for cash though, and just . Don’t get ahead of your skis and they’ll be all right. That makes sense. but yeah, if you’re house flipping, I don’t do that, but I would be afraid potentially. I don’t know. But hope that helps. thanks for, questions and, we will see you guys next time and check out the mastermind bubble@simplepassivecashflow.com slash bubble.

And thanks everybody. Bye.

Nov 2020 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/M9-A0vG5F1w

All right folks. It is November, 2020 monthly market update. Today’s Easter egg. He would like to download is the full, who he shared jive with. Pretty much all the goodies in their investor files and spreadsheets plus free access to the first three bottles in the e-course. Go to simple passive cashflow.com/club and join in there.

But if you haven’t met me, my name is Lane Kawaoka. I am the creator of simple passive cashflow, all about the stealing, the secrets of the wealthy, but on today, we are going to be recapping some of the news that has been happening this last month. We’ll get into the election a little bit right now. It’s still a little bit of a up, it looks like Biden is probably going to come out ahead.

But what’s teaching points that I’ve been working with some folks on lately. So a lot of people have been taking advantage of the cares act, getting a hundred thousand dollars out of their retirement accounts as we call it. Jailbreaking one tactic that is being used is safe. Investor has a big salary.

So they’re, they’re making over two, $300,000 a year. And they have a lot of money in their retirement account, but when they take money out of their retirement account, they slide it out as ordinary income. So if you’re making over two, $300,000, you’re in the highest tax bracket, it may make sense for you to put it into what’s called a QRP.

Instead, there’s more information at school, passive cashflow.com/prp. It’s another two out there, right? Every situation is a little bit different and the QRP is not the right situation for everybody. But in certain cases, it is, I think what’s another investor in our group, which you guys can join on Facebook.

Just shoot me a message. We’ll get you access to bear. But folks are using, you don’t get any tax benefits. Unfortunately, when you invest via a QRP. So it’s great for investing in Bitcoin or all these things that don’t give you the tax advantages of real estate, or if you’re just a private money lender or a debt investor, which I don’t really see why you would want it to do that in the first place.

But if you that’s what you do, or maybe you do life settlements. Two, that’s a great use for the QRP for my video window. There it is another teaching point here we’ve been using a lot of lately because we are able to be a little more liberal with the deductions. Some of the things that we had, we can do, or by calling, we don’t do full offices.

That’s a bad word. Call them administrative offices. And we do this Augusta rural. A lot of this is in my taxGuy@simplepassivecashflow.com slash tax. I’m not a CPA. I’m not a tax attorney. It’s not giving you any legal advice. This is just to get the juices flowing so that you can also go to your tax professional and pay less taxes.

That’s what it’s all about because you guys are the ones putting money into the economy and investing in. Oh, I had a thought here. It looks like this is probably going to happen. If Democrats would win just an idea. Maybe we should convert more of a retirement accounts. Or maybe take up any of your career pap.

I have one to cash. I’m thinking taxes will likely be going up generally, but understand it is mostly for the higher tax bracket folks. They’re trying to hurt the guys that are $400,000 EGI and above. But if you guys are smart, your AGI isn’t that high and you’re able to bring in a lot lower. So I don’t really want to get into the election or anything like that, but I, frankly, I don’t care who wins.

Because all the tax stuff, I personally fly under the radar and that’s really what the full sibling, passive cashflow gravy train is all about. Investing in deals, getting passive losses, loitering your ordinary income with real estate professional status. It’s all a game to game, paying less taxes equally, all the, all these rules you don’t really apply to you.

So it doesn’t really matter. Who’s in office and Oh, by the way, it’s really more depends. Who’s in the Senate because they really make the laws. My opinion, the presidents come up more of a figurehead us, especially when it comes to taxes and those types of things. But I’m probably going to be having Toby on the podcast next week, discussing implications on taxes based on who wants to be figure out who is actually the winner, but yeah, getting into the monthly news.

President Trump got COVID-19 and I think it got swept under the rug after he got it. And everybody heard the story get closed out, but shock the financial markets. And I’m just like, what the heck does the president getting COVID have anything to do with the market’s going up or down? It’s either that or newscasters are just fishing for news.

Again, the other thing big that’s still at play. We’re still waiting for that second really big, similar plan that. It’s taken a really long time to come through. Democrats want it a lot higher than Republicans and it’s in a stalemate or probably get pushed through here in the next month as selections happen.

We’ll have those talks, but either way, I think a lot of real estate investors tend to be more on the right more libertarian, if anything. But I don’t really care. One bit simple. Passive cash is not about being pulled at and go one bit, but understanding which way things move and reacting the best way as an independent investor.

But typically the Republicans are better for the economy, but if the Democrats win, they’re pretty more liberal with. Pumping fake money into the system. So that can be, I think of it as hell heads. I win tails. I win type of a scenario. That’s really where you should. You guys should get to at some point to figure out where the puck is going and skate to it as the other great ones said, but overall bright outlook for housing, the demand for housing is very strong and the confidence required for individuals to purchase a foam cannot be understated because of the bowl mortgage rates.

And right now it’s pushing up prices in a lot of areas is the low supply. So people aren’t putting their homes on the market. I don’t know if demand is higher or lower than normal. The prices are dictated by supply demand right now, supply we know as well. So that is why I says are going. So I would like the New York times.

So they came up with this article, whereas the model, the temporary laid off right after. Cool. If it happened. And I really bulged out in April and then may, and then has been tracking down in June, July, August, really visualizes how big the temporary layoffs were. And on the right side, here are the Kermit late layoffs throughout the months.

Those of you guys listening in the podcast for miles puts this on the YouTube channel. You can check it out. At simple passive cashflow.com/investor letter, where all these monthly reports will be held in case you ever miss these, we are invested in Biloxi, Mississippi, or Gulf port, and maybe you’ve seen some of the hard rock t-shirts I know that’s the first time I saw Biloxi, but I went and stayed down here on it’s like a casino role on the boardwalk there, but we have a couple of smaller apartments.

Couple of hundred units sizes there, but we chose not to do a cost segregation because in cost segregations, the crossover point to do one and spend five to $10,000 to do one to extract that bonus. Depreciation only makes sense if you’re going to hold onto the property longer than three years. And you’re just not too bullish on Biloxi in general, in a really long long-term thing.

So something it’s a great market, but we opted not to do that cost segregation because once we rehab those units and we’re going to probably just be out, but. This new story popped up. So universally music and Diane Chi U ventures is putting a 1.2 billion entertainment destination in Biloxi is eclipsing the 750 million who refridge resort and casino that the rate Steve, when developed back in 1999, I’m not saying that this one project.

It’s going to sway my thinking on my exit strategy and those a couple of deals, but that’s a lot of money. $1.2 billion, a lot of money to go in on a small town like that. So I’ll be watching this and these are the stories to be on the lookout for just like in Nashville. So Southwest value partners opens a 591 roam brand Hyatt Porto within Nashville.

Now not saying that you’re investing in full tails or anything, but hotels are a great indicator of progress. And Nashville is another market that I watch. In that’s still cash flows and it is a little bit of a buzz around the town of Nashville. Haven’t found anything yet, but always looking like I said, but Nashville is another market to be on the lookout for this is reported by Ari business online, a pretty nice building.

So news out of California and Florida for the Mickey mouse fans out there, Disney to lay off 28,000 employees at the part of, so that ain’t good or they’re closed now. No one’s going to this stuff. So this kind of makes sense. I’ll show these things will bounce right back once the pandemic fades away next year.

Moving to Texas. So business now reports that Texas central Reeses fed approval to move ahead with the Houston Dallas bullet train. So this thing is supposed to go 200 miles per hour and traveled between Dallas and Houston and less than 90 miles. I don’t know when this thing is going to be coming online.

But that’s going to be pretty cool. Texas is amazing. That’s probably why it being more democratic because everybody else, California is running to get the heck out of California. That’s part of it. I think that is why Arizona’s as long as a state to vote Democrat, because heck a lot of people are Californians for X Californians moving over there.

But again, not to get political or anything, but that’s just people moving away and you got to follow where the people are. Texas is on fire still. And something like this, even you can’t build something like this, this will get there a lot quicker, I think, than the Sacramento to California. I used to build railroad as my first career as a project engineer and track engineer.

And I’ll tell you it’s. To build this track. All it takes like moving mountains to get all the land and that ain’t going to happen in a place like California, but Texas is the one place that you’d get nice long linear pieces of land. John Burns reports. They put that together. These meat infographics.

Again, if you guys check out. The investor letters@simplepassivecashflow.com slash investor letter, you can see these right. I’ll usually pull these to Instagram channel or the Facebook page, but they want to compare. What’s a better place to invest Florida or the Southeast three categories here. As far as the housing market, they think Florida has the advantage there.

The rental market, they see it as a tie. And as far as economy, they’re giving the nod to the general South. Benefiting from biotech banking, manufacturing, industrial sectors. The reason they nudged it over Florida was because of Florida service oriented, economic. Like the Orlando was what they’re probably talking about, but Florida Southeast great places to invest, especially if you’re looking for cashflow.

All right. So we’re looking at a chart from Arbor. Ranking the top markets. So Seattle, Phoenix, Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, Portland, Baltimore, Denver of Indianapolis Columbia. This is a list of, this is like, what they see is the new opportunities CEO’s of the top. I don’t really quite buy that. I think sales a great market, just doesn’t cash flow.

So I’m out, but Phoenix, Austin, San Antonio, Dallas. Our next Phoenix and Austin follow closely behind Seattle bending from resilient labor markets. Texas met shows led by Dallas and Houston. Continue to capture an outsize share of large multi-family investment. So little sub-note here. I always recommend reading the whole article.

Maturing millennial households have a growing desire for mixing the amendments of class a multi-family will also enjoy the space of the suburbs. So this is that push for what’s. Being called the term suburban won’t they family. So not really in the CBD for business district, not the marijuana CBD, but that other CBD, but more on the outskirts and suburbs, maybe 20 minutes an hour outside the city center is what they’re talking about.

These suburbs they founded before. That’s what I like to invest in because there’s a nice push towards that. A couple more graphs from Arbor. They’re showing on the left here. Large multi-family lending is going out to Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta than DC, New York, Denver, Philadelphia, Orlando sentence only is.

So for those markets, I like a lot. Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and plans on top for large multi-family lending to round out the other chart, which is they’re ranking at percent share of low count Dallas, Houston v-necks Atlanta and New York. Washington Orlando, Philadelphia, San Antonio. And then, so the biggest and the last chart for Arbor here, they’re trying to show the large multi-family lending.

Now, where is the lending volume per capita happening? So the tops are Orlando, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Jacksonville, Florida, San Antonio, Austin, Charlotte, Nashville, Dallas. I don’t know all this typically means, but it’s just showing you where the action is happening. Where’s the activity happening a little bit sad.

You guys know a black Panther chatter Bozeman died last month. There was a story here that unfortunately the guy didn’t have a will. So the wife files probate case. So that’s unfortunate that when you don’t have a, will you actually, when you, even, when you do have a will, all your stuff means public out there, would you really want to have in interest?

So that’s like one of those. I think that’s a shitty thing that lawyers do. They shouldn’t make you a will because by making a well, they did sure they get, they get the probate or when you die, really, they want to do it. They should be making you get a trust. So make sure you guys get a trust this year, especially if you have kids.

Friends. Don’t let friends have wills joint center for housing studies from Harvard university must be legit. It’s Harvard says that most whole water’s started do it yourself projects during the pandemic. So normally they’re hovering around the 60% and it went up to even as high as 78% in may of people starting a duet Bureau.

Cell full maintenance project. So this is probably why my lumber prices skyrocketed right before we’re going to sign a contract. Like we love her prices have come back down and it’s probably the same phenomenon. Why you guys can’t buy flour at the grocery store? Cause everybody’s. Bacon sourdough bread or whatnot.

Another thing that I watch every year is this price, water, Cooper. Accounting firm comes up with this. They team up with the urban land Institute to have this conference every year that they call your emerging trends and they come up with this really core board. It’s a nice read. It may not be super actionable.

But they released the top 10 emerging markets that are as follows Raleigh, North Carolina, Austin, Texas, Nashville, Tennessee there’s Nashville. Like I said, Dallas Fort worth. We would talk about Dallas all the time. Charlotte, North Carolina, Tampa, Florida, salt Lake city, Washington, DC, Boston, and long Island, New York, those top 10 merging markets.

From the urban land Institute and price, water merchants in trends. I read this report. I always keep in the back of my hand that they’re capturing a lot of the luxury markets. So in this list, I probably throw out Washington DC, Boston, New York, because they don’t cash flow. So I, as an investor am not hitting that niche national real estate investor.

Reports San Francisco, apartment rents, creator of the 31%. And yet most people are getting the heck out of San Francisco. A lot of the employers are telling their people to work from home because a lot of them are tech jobs and tech guys can work wherever they want for the most part. And if you have to stay at home and shelter in place and can’t go out, why would you want to be in the hustle bustle in the city where there’s in this time?

No social activities. So, this is why people aren’t getting the heck out of San Francisco. A lot of them are moving over to the Bay or Oakland or spreading out elsewhere. It is the view hall report time. Listen, I’m getting, I always get excited every year that you call report gets for these. Here are the winners and losers, California, Seattle, Portland, just get a bomb.

That’s sort of getting people are getting the hell out of town there and they are going to yep. You guessed it, Texas. The Southeast Jacksonville’s labeled all here, Austin and yep. You’re getting the heck out of the Northeast, New York, Boston, all those types of places. And if you haven’t heard it, you need to get out of Chicago.

Cause that’s that’s state is going underwater fast. I’m hoping a lot of people get into turnkeys in Gary, Indiana, which is just on the other side of the border. So they’re getting their beneficiary of a lot of people are trying to get out of the state. Gary Indiana’s to Chicago, Illinois is like people living in Vancouver, Washington, but working in Portland, Uber reports that Las Vegas, top the U S rise of apartment tenants, not paying rent.

Those Las Vegas people, 10.6% of Vegas tenants have missed a rent payment of two, 4.1% year earlier. I don’t know these last, I don’t want to say anything bad, but add, I think like gamblers there, but yeah, this is why I like to invest in more, uh, red States, especially in the South Southeast, it seems to be typical of the, of the California type of, or West coast type of mindset or blame it on somebody else.

If you can’t pay your rent, you never had your savings accounts, but yeah, maybe it’s near side of me. I love these guys. They just can’t work. So when you’re a tourist based economy and the hotels aren’t open, you don’t have very many options, but I don’t know. That’s just me. I think if you can’t page until your landlord and move out.

So if you guys are struggling building your network, we always say building your network network is all about building your net worth. It’s all about surrounding yourself with the right people, going to the local media and the free online forums out. There are some of the worst places to go for passive investors.

Because everybody’s broke, right? They’re all into house flipping and being more active. A lot of people in our tribe are more passive investors that are pretty good with their money. They save them money prudently. So we’ve got a couple options for folks. If you guys are new, trying to build your net worth up to over at least.

Quarter million dollars. And your prescription for that is buying a single family home or renter, especially if you live in a high price area or blue state, I check out the remote investor can keep ADR. And of course that’s at simple passive castle.com session can keep it, or we’ll be starting the next class probably in January, February.

And if you guys are accredited investors and looking, you’d take your way to the next level. One third of our scope is to analyze syndication deals become a sophisticated investor, and at very least. Not go onto those sucker deals. The Daisy chain deals up there. You guys can check that out@simplepassivecashflow.com slash journey.

And this is where we teach and we put our, all our heads together on how you can do the simple passive cashflow gravy train, which is all about paying little to no taxes via getting the passive losses. Um, these larger syndication deals and using that to pair with a real estate professional status tax strategy, a lot of ways you can do this raw, but every situation is different.

This is where we are me with information to take it to your tax professionals, to set this stuff up for you. But we are probably rebranding this as the family office, Ohana, trying to make it more of a community of high net worth investors. And it’s going to be more of a collaborative environment. Now this is the time or I switch gears and I talk a little bit about what I’m up to personally.

Hopefully I’ll give you some ideas and things to work on in December or January, but this always goes and follows the framework of Tony Robbins, six eats, but first is. How do I find growth? What was I working on as a lot of you guys know, I work with a coach and I don’t know my business, but I see it more as like accountability.

I paid people to keep me accountable because I don’t help . It is. And how much time I waste and how much leverage I can get when somebody has helped do that. But we really work. This month. That’s a big, super basic that I wanted to share with you guys. It’s called the RPM tactic, but it’s all about figuring out the first thing.

What the heck do I want? What do I want? Like if you were for spouse giving you a hard time, yelling at you, what do you want? What is your end goal, right? Or you’re not happy and you want to change something. What do you want? And then from there, once you define what you want, then you can figure out what specific actions.

That you wanted to happen and then, but to really make it stick, you need to do what purpose? What do you really, why do you want this? You have to root it in, right? It’s for example, what do you want? I want a six back on washboard. Abs. I want to flex and beach. All right. What specific actions do you have that make it happen better, blah, blah, blah, blah.

Exercise. A lot of people forget, what is my purpose? Why do I really want to do this? Because if it’s simply for vanity reasons, I guess that’s a pretty good motivator. Or maybe you just don’t want to look like you’re lazy at the beach. That can be a big motivator on nothing wrong with that, but maybe you really want to live a long life to see your kids.

But when you’re older, but that’s really important to root that. Why are doing it? How do I find contribution? I recently interviewed the now mayor of Hawaii. Bland GRD is interesting talking to him, getting into him and then talking offline with him a little bit. And this guy’s turn at burden. And that, that older age, I think he’s like in his seventies, pretty amazing watching him go.

But I pissed them off. I told them I didn’t really care about politics and you gotta get all upset with me. And I’m like, I was like, dude, like I do. All right, push your values on me grow. But yeah, I see where he’s coming from, but that’s why he’s putting his time and energy and his passion, his politics.

And I think I saw it right through and I think that it’s. That he’s the guy you want for mayor. You don’t want me, I have more thinking about myself and I’ve just quietly want to grow my empire, not at this point where I want to become there at this point. Call it six. Flustering significance will be closed.

A couple of deals this month. I think it was yesterday. Actually we closed with spring Oaks on Git 40 unit in Conroe, Texas light value. Add stabilize apartments. 140 out of 140 units are already rehabbed the already proving the business plan on the higher rents, great property. And I was there about a month ago.

I felt really confident on that one. And then a couple of weeks ago, it closed on a little 27 unit in Tempe, Arizona suburb of Phoenix, a great debt on both of these properties, both Fannie Mae. Long 12 to 15 year terms, 3.06 on the with spring Oaks deal. And that’s my strategy. These days, you can get it for such a low interest rate, like at 3%, your cash line day one.

Really your downside is pretty low. Really. The only risk is if you can keep the property occupied more than 50 or 60%, it’s usually the breakeven point and you guys have checked out the Huntsville three pack. This was the biggest year to date, but 407 unit. It was three properties. One of the properties took a really long time to close.

He find it close it much earlier than this months, but that kind of wraps up that portfolio. So the first two properties are going awesome. Higher performer rents. Those sedan often move in. I think he was a great year to toot. My horn is always to have a fulfilling life and get a little uncertainty in it.

We had some hurricanes there. Hurricane Delta messed up some of the mobile home parks in Southern Alabama uncle force. We, I forgot what the first hurricane was. I think it was like Sally, but we got through that one with a little bit damage, but Delta, these are some pictures of Delta, but right. Not just working through the insurance and that’s why you have insurance.

So the problem there is you have to put up your own working capital. That’s why you have cash reserves in your budget. So you can pay, you can overlay these types of repairs before the invoices come in, you pay your invoices. And then you get reimbursed by the insurance company. That’s the kind of painful thing, but that’s all we have commercial insurance to cover us for this type of stuff, a certainty.

He was really nice to finally pay out the first. We always tell investors that we restabilize the asset in a couple of quarters and we did, we were able to do this on Huntsville deals. Yeah. 51 grand went out for the first quarter distributions to investors. And some people like to show a bunch of checks.

We don’t do checks direct and positive. It’s 2020. So here’s a screenshot of that. Going out to me makes me feel good. Cash money going out to investors. That’s what right about making money and also celebrating a little bit too. I was in Cleveland, Ohio. We did a little investor reception to celebrate the closing of the Rockefeller.

We rented out a little space in the rock and roll hall of fame. Got to check that out. Cause I’ve talked to some investors and I sell some of you guys. In Houston in early October, too. I had a loyal investor, picnic and boy also, but I want to also announce we are not going to be doing the in-person retreat in Hawaii due to everything that’s going on, but we are going to be taking the virtual and is going to be like nothing you’ve ever done before.

It is not going to be a bunch of lame speakers giving you. They’re saying warm presentation. They give 20 other places. It’s going to be me. I’m going to be distilling the information of all of these little tactics and tricks that we’ve gathered over the past few years. The simple passive cashflow gravy train using passive losses.

The bonus integration. Yeah. We’re going to talk about that. Why you don’t want to use 10 30 ones, the hot air balloon analogy. Yeah, we’re going to talk about that, but we’re also going to implement in a lot of networking. So I’m going to teach these concepts, but I’m going to break you guys up into little mini groups.

And you’re going to be able to teach each other, the concepts and actually talk about specific strategy. Everybody’s going to be vetted coming in here. It’s all going to be pure passive investors, and everyone’s got to apply to get in, and I’m still creating the agenda and be on the lookout for that this next month.

But it is going to be amazing. I’m so excited, but new podcasts and articles that I released. This month, it’s been nice having some help creating these videos, helping me get this content out to you guys. But if any folks have any questions on any of these specific topics, let me know or ask the question in our Facebook group.

Well, we can all chime in or resistance and barriers. I need an intern. If anybody has any type of kid that is willing to do a little bit of prep work and need a little bit of a mentorship, I’d like doing that. So I want to grow this a little bigger. So I bought some decaf coffee, some channels. Stop drinking as much caffeine and I’m trying to grow like the lawn a little bit better.

And so I bought this air rater. It’s like you step on it. And there’s two pins in there. And just even if you do it several hundred times, and this thing is one of the most therapeutic things that you will ever do in your life day, you recommend it. It’s good for your lawn too. And it’s good exercise. It should listen to podcasts.

Or whatnot, but that’s something that I’m working on the side. We’ll see you guys next month, dr. Claire bye.

This website offers very general information concerning real estate for investment purposes. Every investor situation is unique. Always seek the services of licensed third party appraisers inspectors, to verify the value and condition of any property you intend to purchase. Use the services of professional title and escrow companies and licensed tax investment and or legal advisor before relying on any information contained here in information is not guarantee as in every investment there is risk.

The content found here is just my opinion and things change. Right. I reserve the right to change my mind above all else. Do your own analysis and think for yourself because in the end. You are the only person who is going to look out for your best interests.

August 2020 Market Update Investor – Investor Letter #16

 

All right, everybody, this is the August 2021 fi market update. I’m your host Lane Kawaoka. But before we get started the free easter egg giveaway, and we are going to be giving away a buy and hold analyzer for rentals. This is you can use it in Google and Excel for explanation of all expenses for you to make your own performance and vet your own rental properties. For check performance given to you performer means means toilet paper, French, just get rid of it, analyze it yourself, run your numbers yourself and allows you to perform some sensitivity analysis on your own You can get access to that by going to a group putting in the numbers on the Facebook posts, or you can shoot me an email at Lane at simple passive cash flow calm. And, you know, I’ll send it over to you. If you guys want to check out more content on our Facebook group and listen to my podcasts, which has been going on since 2016. found on Google music, Spotify, e to YouTube channel is getting pretty big and robust now. We’re also on iTunes and iHeartRadio. Alright, so first things first, a little bit of teaching points for everybody had demick proof investing. How do you invest in stuff that won’t get destroyed in a pandemic? Well, things that are probably going to remain strong, as we’ve seen through the last few months, do my 3500 units that I own workforce housing. These guys still PE so Class C and maybe try and stay away from class C stuff but definitely the class VNA tenants, their paint, garden style apartments so a garden style apartments are these are the two story or 123 story apartments where it’s sort of think of it like a motel where you drive up to, it is not a high rise apartment. It is sort of medium to light density. And for those people who are unable to afford a house, everybody says they want to you know, get away from other people and have their own house but very little people in America can afford houses to live in. garden style apartments are the best of all worlds you have your space. It’s pretty affordable for them and this is why I choose to invest in these type of card itself apartments and other medium dead suburban locations that would be not in the urban sprawl, urban area, the downtown area but mostly in the suburbs. Areas maybe right near the loop track you know 20 to 30 minutes outside the city center things that I stay away from our elevators you just can’t socially distance in an elevator that’s urban areas of things with no cash flow right because they think you’ve seen an epidemic that things that aren’t producing income to pay his expenses are going to get hurt a lower end tenants and this is where I said you know, maybe stay away from class C tenants definitely Class D and worse. That’s always been a fundamental that we followed a short term rentals are getting killed. Although I hear a little bit of resurgence and some of the some areas of Florida as people there’s some pent up demand coming back online but you know, if you live in Hawaii, you’re getting killed with these short term rentals and and that’s why I told you not to do them in the first place. Pro tenant states. So these are like the California these other places love blue states where there’s more tutorials on no evictions offered A space you know, a lot of tech workers and a lot of them are just told that they may not even come back to the BDM next year if if ever, a lot of people have just told their employees just to work remotely from now on San Francisco Bay Area’s getting killed. Again, this is why we chose not to invest in these type of primary markets. JOHN burns came up with a report and the question is, are you or do you know anybody else living with their parents? Well, they came up with this little stat that for those adults ages 23 to 30 living at home what’s your mom and dad has drastic be bingo going up 30,000 people in March, and then in April a million people and then may another million 1.1 folks moved in with the parents so that is on the rise. And that leads us to a read cafe article or the takeaway here was a quarter of renters now say they will never buy a home. So if you’re looking at This in the YouTube channel you’re seeing and that cool little chart where they surveyed about 7000 renters in May, you know a lot of people just don’t plan to buy a house, you know, I don’t, I don’t buy a house to live in. And if you’re living in a rent to value ratio under 1%, I would urge you to do not buy a place to live in, but instead, invest that money. Check out my article, simple passive cash flow, calm slash home talking all about this very controversial topic, but look at it this way, right? You don’t spend money on a big down payment, and you go out and invest that money and you make cash flow. And it’s basically an arbitrage and I know everybody teaches you otherwise. And I would say for most people, it makes sense because most people aren’t finance financially responsible. So home is sort of a forced savings account for them because if they didn’t put the money into a mortgage that got locked up, they probably spend it but you know, those of us who kind of follow our group are of our tribe, simple passive cash flow, folks, and we’re pretty responsible for our money. We don’t spend our money frivolously. So for those of us it probably makes sense to rent our primary residence, use that equity to go and buy assets and then you know, we don’t have that big mortgage payment, and then we can go out and buy more properties or syndications quicker. You can also probably live in a nicer place to the whole thing of homeownership, I think is a little overrated, but just to just hear giving ideas right, full map of estimated net worth of everybody who every person, each state who is the richest person, so Mark Zuckerberg is at 1 million billion dollars in California. Washington have just Jeff Bezos hundred 17 billion boy is pero dahmer. I don’t even know who that is. A Alice Walton 51 billion. We have a lot of Texas people. Some no We have with some people in Maryland in DC, Ted Lerner family. Ray Dalio is up there in Connecticut at 18 billion. Yeah, a lot of us in our group are California, Oregon and a lot of people in Oregon Phil Knight, and family 40 billion other folks on the west coast. It’s kind of a fun, a fun article. They’re most and least affordable cities from home ownership. It’s kind of a no brainer here but in graphical representation from NAR realty data, the West Coast is probably some of the most unaffordable areas but in there The worst is San Jose, California. And one of the better areas is Spokane, Washington. And I think we have actually a participant from the area of Spokane Washington, shout out to FM is listening. So we like to invest in the south and south east. Phoenix is one of the least affordable places in the south south Phoenix is actually pretty good market, in my opinion, and it’s not too expensive. A lot of people from California move out there. But in terms of the South, it’s one of the more expensive places. Amarillo, Texas is one of the most affordable ones. Kind of a nice little, little fun map to see where’s the nice places to live. And I took a screenshot of some of the chatter that’s been happening in our private Facebook group, or I’m seeing people move out of San Francisco Bay Area lower cost areas in Campbell, California since COVID has enabled them to work remotely. Real Estate seems to be picking up in those areas of Sacramento or El Dorado County, is you don’t get much more for your money while still being you get a little bit more for your money while still being relatively close to the epicenter that is San Francisco and San Jose. Another person commented rents on average in San Francisco are down 12% Because as much as 20% in some areas now, that’s just one person from the UI. But to be honest, I go, I use my network a lot. I mean, a lot of you folks are my eyes and ears out there. And hearing stuff like that is a lot more reliable than what you can find in the news a lot of times and you know, nothing beats going into Facebook marketplace and seeing what the rents are doing, especially for someone who’s been following up on it, and kind of watching it watching the needle. Like a lot of you guys have this data that we read from these news article, there’s quite a bit of lag, typically, where saving for a down payment is the slowest, Hawaii, District of Columbia and California. These are three places where the median home values in DC and Hawaii are a little over $700,000 That sounds about right. I mean, you can’t pick up a house here, away. I mean, yeah, you could pick up a house but it’s gonna be kind of crummy for 600 grand Hello. Foreigners just under $600,000 median home value, if you working with a down payment of 20% time to save for a down payment is 9.1 years for Hawaii, 8.7 years in DC and 7.8 years in California. So if you can save up enough money to buy a house, well, there’s only 3030 or 20 more years you have to work more than likely. So I asked the question why buy in these kind of places to be honest, this invests, but I’ve been told I need to be a little bit more less controversial. You know, if you can’t save your money, then please buy. If you can invest, I think I think you’re going to end up better off than the most. Both day housing news reports such senior housing occupancy slips to an all time low. Now a lot of you guys have mentioned to me that, you know, you see senior housing, the trends, they call it the silver wave. I totally agree with you guys. So, senior housing is going to be in a huge demand assisted living. But I don’t think the silver wave is quite here yet. And it’s a very hard operational asset class. And to me, it shouldn’t really be in the real estate category. I mean, it’s an operational business to me, definitely not for mom and pop investor to operate in a mom and pop operator could possibly invest in apartments and be okay, but definitely not senior housing. The occupancy fell 2.8 percentage points in the second quarter dropping to 87% to 84%. So yeah, this I mean, this is some of the fallout from Colvin, senior housing, I wouldn’t want the liability of that right now. Commercial Property executive reports that the top five secondary markets for self storage default, I’ve been looking into Self Storage lately. I haven’t jumped in quite yet. I originally, you know, one of my things I don’t quite like about self storage is to have You can develop this stuff so quickly and typically you don’t compete directly with what you’re doing. Yeah, there’s not really any class B or C till storage out there like how you buy Class B and C apartments and then when a Class A apartment or a house, a self storage company comes online, it’ll compete directly with you whereas like, you know, we’re buying Class B apartments and in a class A apartment gets split across the street. Well kind of competes with us but not really we’re you know, you’re in a different category for customers. But on this some of the top five secondary markets for self storage development, Augusta, Providence, Knoxville, Rochester, Rochester, Springville, self storage, I think the appeal there is you have no tenants in you know, they have no right it’s just stuff that you’re not going to have any it’s going to take a lot for there to be some laws against no evictions or kicking you out on the street for that. So that’s, that’s why it’s very in favor of the landlord or the operator. Not all markets have come down a little bit since COVID kind of cooled off the market and temporarily, co stars reporting the Huntsville apartment market rising remains resilient and dynamic. But little graph of the same store asking rent just keeps going up through what was called Mr. March in March. That went up from 93 cents to 95 cents or in that market. So I can fully attest to that, because it just keeps going up in the stronger markets. I think part of that is just job growth. On the contrary, Jacksonville found the multifamily Market Report is seeing a little bit of a slide 30 basis points in rents in the last three months. Well, some people you know, some of my peers that have deals in Jacksonville saying that their deals or aren’t seen this, but you know, this is just big data, right? We’re trying to share On a market, commercial property executive also reports construction costs decreased for the first time in a decade, the covid 19 pandemic, and increased competition among contractors are key factors behind the client. So you know, as, as a lot of operators are, are on contractors or developers builders are kind of taking their foot off the gas pedal in terms of future deals, they might also slow down into existing ones too, and, you know, less competition coming online and generally kind of slows down the pace of construction and that ultimately impacts the contractors I think you would have asked this about six months ago you know, one of another reasons why I don’t like doing that silly first strategy, which is too much effort at too much risk is because much of the last few years has been a contractors market, right contractors, any if you’re not a contractor and you’re not working, something’s wrong with you. It’s hard to find contractors up to this point because everybody to work in. It’s really hard for unsophisticated new investor, especially when you’re trying to do it remotely, to find people good people to work with. You know, you got a question, why is this person not working and want to work with me? Well, maybe you’re paying a stupid price to that could be another thing that’s very typical revolt. Investors. Now, now, it’s kind of a good news, right, generally, you know, things are kind of cooling off less competition. So now’s the time to go and build right. I think a lot of newer investors are scared, right? This is the time where you can go in and you can do get this work done a lot cheaper. You know, overall, unemployment is higher. Now these construction guys, the jobs have been absorbed. yardie came up with a report on multifamily and I’m just going to read some of the key findings here. The US multifamily rents decrease by $2 in June, you know, not that much falling to an average of four 1300 $57 and this is all inclusive of you know, ABC class average rents just continuing the four month trend of declines which makes a lot of sense right? I mean went to dang pandemic, you’re expected you know rents to retrace a little bit. Average us rents declined by point 8% in the first half of 2020. And then point 4% in the second quarter. This is a stark contrast from 2.6% rent growth in the first half of 2009 and 1.2. A most people will argue that on average 3% is annual rent increase per year. That’s kind of just follows a pace of inflation. If a market is super hot, like how Dallas was in 2013 and 14 or how Phoenix has been lately, you can see a big pop you know, a market you know, Mark get more of like a MSC, of like a spectral Five to 7% a year. So to see a rec growth of almost zero, that makes sense when this is going to happen from time to time. And this is why on those annual rent escalators, you don’t want to see something too high. I don’t be underwrite more than 2%. Typically when I’m looking at deals, you know, I’m assuming it’s going to go up a little bit, but I want to under pace inflation, which is typically thought of as 3%, where the losers will, it’s the West Coast and tech home markets, as we were saying, hit the hardest in the first half of 2020. That’s the beginning of the year, rents are down 4.6% in San Jose and 3.8%. In San Francisco. Our business online reports that us multifamily originations to decline 20 to 41% in 2020, says Freddie Mac, so all this is is less people are doing deals and yeah, I mean, the last three, four months haven’t really seen that. Very much come through the inbox, probably I would say, unscientifically, I would say maybe a 10th or, you know, 20% of what kind of volume of syndicated deals I see has been coming through. Part of that are that they think most, most investors are just freaked out and scared and people can’t raise the money for it. Part of another part is that, you know, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and they kind of lead a lot of lenders. They’ve kind of restricted a lot of the exemptions they will give that makes these loans extra extra sweet for syndicators and investors. We are at all time, interest rate lows. If you haven’t been seeing this, probably been living under a rock. But yeah, we’re seeing in the multifamily space like 2.9% interest rate is obscene. It almost makes sense for people to buy lukewarm deals, right. I mean, Think about it like this, it’s not going to be a sub 3% forever. If your cash flying like you want to lock up all this good debt now, I mean, there’s all signs point to inflation, how else are you going to pay for this three, four or five $7 trillion of stimulus that’s coming. If you have a primary residence, you might be looking at refinancing your home, but I would be careful, right? Because these lenders are really tricky. They love to get these origination fees typically 1%. So they’re always trying to trick you guys into refinancing. I’d say be careful, right? If you already have a low percent mortgage under 4%, I mean, it may not make sense. Remember, like if you had a 30 year mortgage and you know a few years went by you have 27 years left by them refinancing you again, they put you into a new mortgage. So what you really want to do to compare apples to apples is to say, hey, run my run my numbers, I want to put it as a 27 year mortgage. So I can Compare it to the monthly payments, and I want you to make it a no Fee Loan. Now you these guys can play around with the points and fees. And a lot of times they’ll make it a no Fee Loan sitting. So yeah, see it’s no fees, but then what they’re doing is they’re increasing the percentage slightly. So if the base would be was like three and a half percent, they might increase it to 3.75 to make it to take out their fees there so they could get paid. These buggers are tricky. So do the math for yourself. And if you can’t do the math, find a network and you know, we talked about this stuff in our mastermind all the time. I would say if you’re looking to stay in your home for a long time, more than five or 10 years it might be make sense to refinance it but yeah, if you’re not make sense to just sell the asset now if it’s not a good rental property or and get the equity out now, or just let the mortgage ride for the time being and and I’m avoid pain those friction costs which are those loan origination fees

been investing with hp since 2017. By distressed mortgages and discounts to offer struggling families sustainable solutions to stay in their homes or homes were vacant. HP recognized that lenders frequently struggled as they tried to limit their losses. That’s why owner George Dewberry founded pre aureo, a platform that gets these vacant properties into the hands of local investors like us during the foreclosure process, which mitigates losses to lenders and accelerates returns for investors. Winwin I’m very excited about this platform that connects local investors with board appointed receivers in their area to cost effectively repair, lease and maintain and rent vacant homes during the foreclosure process and ultimately make a profit. I’ve been checking out local properties here in Hawaii and I think it’s a great way finally pick up my home to live in. Even though I think home’s the buyer on all the best you can live with About pre Rio by going to simple passive cash flow calm slash v. Rio.

Sam Zell, this is a smart guy. If you haven’t heard of him, you should probably Google him. But he’s kind of like a czar of investing. He’s less known than Warren Buffett. But he’s, he probably invests in more like more trends. So I think he’s one that a lot of people like to follow. But he’s kind of predicting a U shaped recovery likely beginning in the fall, saying we basically improve someone I think that we’re going to have some kind of slow period improving toward the end of the year. That’s very different from a radical Vshape. Again, he’s he’s kind of thing it’s going to be more of a U shape. So Sam cells, you know, he’s invested in I think he was one of the first guys to jump on the mobile home park bandwagon. But yeah, smart guy and a good person to kind of follow see what he’s doing. And, you know, I think a lot of people will say, Well, yeah, Sam’s They’ll says in the fall, start investing in the fall or shortly after like, no, that’s not, you can’t do that, like you kind of miss out on some of the best bull market. And that’s all I got to say about that. This take a little break here for another giveaway. The other second easter egg here is amortized mortgages suck. You want to use your key lock, if you’re looking to pay off your mortgage a fraction of the time do you want access to this shoemoney McClendon simple passive cash flow after joining the club, if you have not a part of our investor club, go and join that simple passive cash flow calm slash club, but this is the mortgage rate arbitration game where you’re using your healer and you’re paying, you’re paying down your amortized loan with simple interest. And trust me this works. You would say I read a little process here. You can probably read this on the YouTube channel or on the video version, but If you guys are listening in the podcast form, just go ahead and shoot me an email Lane at simple passive cash flow. I can give you all the tutorials and videos on this, but it works. You, you pay off your he lock, you replenish it with your cash flow, and then you magically your mortgages gone in like five to seven years. Sounds cool. But I would caution a lot of people like the strategy is not for everyone. And it is nothing compared to actually investing in good hard assets that pay cash flow. And I think this is where a lot of people get confused, right? They’re like, well, I want to pay off my debt. Well, paying off your debt is not aligned with financial freedom. In many respects, debt is the best part of this whole thing. Like I said earlier, inflation is going to be going up because we have all this free created money, especially in the last few months. What the government is going to do is just inflate the money supply to make their deaths. smaller portion. So what you want to be doing is grabbing as much hard assets that have good debt associated with them. So you can pay it off with future money, whether that is buying a rental property or going into a large syndicated deal at 2.9%. I mean, it’s a no brainer. Don’t take your money. Well, I’m not saying don’t. But if you want to be smart about it, and you want to do the best strategy, in my opinion, don’t take your money that you have in a HELOC and put it to pay off your debt. Again, the debt is is you want that you want to lock up but you don’t want to go pay it off. Instead, take that keylock money and go buy rental properties or go into leverage deals with that. I talk a lot about this in the tutorial. It’s somewhere on my YouTube channel. But if you guys can google it on there too. And a lot of people just don’t understand it. The thing they want to be debt free, which is you know, I guess that’s that’s One thing I think they’re getting it confused with consumer debt, right? Like, you definitely don’t want to be leveraged on your credit cards at 20%. But when you have to read a 5% interest rate on assets that produce income that’s you want to load up on that stuff as much as you can get. I wrote an article on Forbes on this, you can check out at simple passive cash flow calm slash debt. So it’s a very big paradigm shift. Of course, if you haven’t checked out we created a new spin off group for new investors looking to pick up their first few rental properties or remote rentals. turnkeys. We are starting that on August 15. Two if you want to join, go to simple passive cash flow.com slash incubator. If you’ve got any friends who’ve been bugging you, about how you’ve been investing in real estate, and tired of bugging you, and you just want them to work under our umbrella with the people that we’ve worked with in the past, they don’t have to go around and blind date a whole bunch of providers. brokers, this is the group for you. But if you’re more of an accredited investor looking to get associated with our, our close knit inner circle, check out the simple passive cash flow, passive investor etc and master mastermind simple passive cash flow calm slash journey to learn more about that we’re transitioning over into my personal section of the monthly report. And for those of you guys have are on watching, if you guys have any questions, feel free to type it into the question answer box and we’ll kind of get to at the end. But these are the six tenants that I kind of rolled through every month. First one is growth. I’ll be honest, I hadn’t really done much part of this month was me stuck at home because I had gone to Birmingham, Cleveland and Dallas. And boy still has this two week quarantine rule where they actually did text me to see if I was at home. So I got this basketball that’s connected I don’t know how it’s done as some kind of electrode in it, but it’s connected to this app. So I’m trying to get better at dribbling the basketball. sounds silly, but trying to play out these things. It’s fun to me trying to get some hobbies. How did I get a little bit of contribution to my life? Well, if you missed it last Saturday, I spent six and a half hours and I drank two coffees to educate a lot of investors who are looking to pick up their first few rental properties. Who is a no BS, no frills, all education, training. If you guys would like to get access that shoot me an email, I might package it up into the E course. Or actually we’ll go into the E course for remote investors. So if you guys want access to that, go to simple passive cash flow.com slash incubator two, you can just buy the course right there, or we’ll probably do as a package up these videos hopefully in a smaller product. Yeah, probably sell it for like 20 bucks or 50 bucks just enough for you guys to not just think it’s worth nothing and it’s free. Significant. So we closed 179 unit deal. Yeah, the second one this year not too many deals this year with all that’s going to be going on but we got 3.1% Freddie Mac non recourse debt. Amazing, amazing 3.1% this deal was more of a yield deal. Not too much value add, but in a great area of Irving, Texas. I mean you can’t go wrong with this thing. I mean, you know, again, it’s a yield play. So your plays are not a heavy value add. It’s just, it’s cash flying day one. And you know, it’s 97% occupied. Yet To me, this is kind of like blue chip stock in your stock portfolio, except I have no stock. So for me with my 100% alternative asset portfolio, this is some of my very conservative side of my portfolio. How did I create it? uncertainty in my life. Well, I don’t know, if we’re going to be doing a 2021 we mastermind in Hawaii. I still think we’re going to do it. But you know, with the whole second wave going on and everything, you know, we don’t know I’ll probably decide here in the next couple months. But uh, yeah, I mean, check out the video we did on the last year’s one simple passive cash flow calm slash, who we three if you guys have any feedback, you guys really want to have it? Let me know. Maybe we might even do like a smaller one. Maybe that’s a safer way of doing things. Just keep it small hundred I have searched at my life will workforce housing works. It works. I gotta admit, through April and May I was a little worried that people weren’t going to pay the rent, but Dang it, they paid they paid and now I’m even more like confident in this overall strategy of investing in workforce housing. What is workforce housing? Well, that’s Most of America, right? Dang it like doesn’t that makes total sense to invest in something where the majority of people in America need that product. So yeah, workforce housing, we’re pretty confident that and i’m actually going after more higher risk projects these days, because I’m pretty confident in the backbone of my portfolio. Again, I’ve talked a lot about this, you know, these days, you can either be in a more cash flow play and maybe see an equity multiple, two times your money in five to six years with cash flow with, you know, cash flow is great, but you know, it’s, it’s kind of slower, right? Cash Flow is cool, especially when you have a day job to leave your day job. But, you know, legacy wealth is created with no more risks for exponentially more return. Right? So that’s the, that’s where you take nothing, a raw piece of land, and you put a building on it, and you rent it up. These development plays and you know, this is where I’m learning that these accredited families. This is where they live. This is this is where they create that legacy wealth. They don’t need the cash flow, they could care less if they invest 50 or $100,000. And they got a couple grand every quarter. They don’t care, don’t care. In fact, it’s kind of a burden for them. They’re coming in wondering like, what’s this? So my direct deposit statement? And I think the reason why they like development deals is because it’s a shorter time horizon to they get sort of instant feedback, good or bad. Right, and then they can move the money into the next project very quickly. But yeah, I mean, as investors, you have choices, and you have to set a line with your investment philosophy, but me personally, I’ll probably still do a majority of my stuff in cash flowing plays workforce housing again, but trying to go after some nice home runs here and there. How do I get a little love and connection in my life? Well, last weekend we celebrated here in Hawaii. We did a little get together with a few of us here in Hawaii and celebrated the closing of the last deal. At some wine has Some food it’s nice to get around real people not that hang out with my wife every night wasn’t getting boring, but it’s nice to get some different players in the mix. People is all what makes a difference. And relationships is the currency of the rich, I would argue have the right people write some new podcasts and articles that I released this month we talked with mythic markets.com who allows you to invest in geek stuff like Spider Man comics magic cards. I’m waiting for Thor’s hammer to come out. Actually, I mean, like look like a lot of people say that when I bring out something on the podcast. I’m immediately vouching for them. I am not doing that. Just because I bring someone on the process does not mean i think that they are safe to work with. HP is different, right? HMP is a sponsor of the podcast and they brought out number two right here. The person reo service. I definitely believe in hp. You know, personally knowing the owner George Newbery there, if you guys want to, you haven’t got a copy of his book, let me know. I think you guys can get that. It’s simple passive cash flow, calm slash hp. And you can also learn about pre reo there at simple passive cash flow.com slash pre reo, but p o is kind of a cool thing I’ve been looking at there every month or so see what’s around my local area here in Hawaii that I can pick up pre reo, REO properties, if you don’t know our properties that someone has run in tough times and are in foreclosure. The pre reo are the properties that are owned on the bank that are typically in judicial states where it’s harder to collect in general. So the bank is just like Screw it, we’ll just sell it pre reo. So by going through the service, you’re able to jump over a lot of mom and pop investors and they have like a nice little feel There. So check it out, you know might not be for you, you might be a passive that actually you might be a passive investor. But this might be appealing because you wouldn’t buy something that you don’t live near that you can’t check that you don’t have a competitive advantage. So I would say it’s a great way to find a primary residence, political prop bets. predicted.org did a little review on that. This is a cool website. It’s kind of for fun, you can bet on the election. And I think you can only bet up to 1000 bucks. So it’s kind of play money. But I use this as a means to figure out who’s actually winning in the polls. Because the people it’s a very small sample size, but the people who are voting on you know, who they think is going to win is actually putting up money so it’s not like, you know, most office bets or opinions where Yeah, people have an opinion, but very few people put their money behind that. Check out the website, not saying that it’s safe or anything like that, but it’s a cool place to To see, you know, different election how things are tracking in one place. Number four here investing in fine wine so very much like the mythic markets.com company these guys invest in real lots of wine. Actually, this one’s more appealing to me. I think, to me, that’s kind of cool. Owning a winery or investing in fine wine. And it seems more cool to me. You think? I mean, whatever floats your boat, right? So people, it’s like sports cards that has been kind of on the uptick this past year, especially with the land stance and everybody’s stuck at home. I also wrote a article on due diligence again, you can get that at simple passive cash flow, calm due diligence, which is just a sample what’s in the passive investor accelerator. And we’re also putting together a lp guide syndication course. So we’ve collected all the notes over the past couple years, I’ve taught people and putting it all into Nice ecourse so if you’ve checked out the new remote investor ecourse that we launched last month, this is going to be in the very similar format. We also had a live coaching call with another credit investor lawyer. So if you’re a lawyer or you’re another credit investor, check that out. People like those. If you go to the YouTube channel, there’s a section there with all the past live webinars, a live coaching calls, that you can vicariously live through other investors in Hawaii, and self directed IRAs to invest your retirement funds. We kind of talked about, you know, when is it not good to use an IRA or a QR p? I’m not a big fan of retirement funds. I don’t have any. I work with clients that we kind of strategically withdraw to retirement accounts so that we’re keep one eye on our AGI level. So we don’t pay too much taxes because when you take out the money out of your retirement accounts, you it comes up as a active income generating They’re some of the issues I’ve been running into is not enough reading time. I’d like to read more books. Some cool doodads I’ve been buying I bought this like stream deck is a total geek item. But if you’re at your computer for more than six hours a day, you might want to think about getting this. So what it is you can it’s it goes next to your keyboard and it’s a hotkey pad. So you can program each of these buttons and each of these buttons is not just like I thought it was like a little sticker you put on there but it’s like an LED screen and each of these buttons you can program it based on what program you’re and and it’s pretty amazing. It’s pretty cool. Like I mean mines is super basic. I just have cut paste copy, reply to email, archive email, TV, email, close the window, trash this thing go to this website, play my music, undo but you know, time is money and this is really cool. This this got created by a bunch of like gamers if you guys haven’t heard of Twitch and the eSports revolution This is a byproduct of that. Some of the lessons learned here I be very careful not to offend anybody here. I don’t mean to but you know, with all this pandemic going on you were mastered, do not do when the country right, it’s very left versus right. And one thing one truth I understand is if you’re on the left, you can’t see the right if you’re on the right you can’t see the left. It’s It’s It’s amazing as I travel throughout the country as I go and travel and in Huntsville, and Cleveland, how different people are in places like California or the East Coast or Hawaii. It’s It’s amazing. People think that America is one united country, we are a country of 50 individual states, some states are very divided amongst themselves. And you know, I think we all see a little bit of like schools opening what do you do, right, I think I think this is the time where we all need to have a little bit more compassion towards everybody. I mean, nobody’s gone through a pandemic. I mean, we’re all trying our best. And you know, there’s no reason to get all emotional on each other. You know, it is what it is trying to be safe and don’t take things too personal. Join our book club, simple passive cash flow calm slash lien hack we are reading what would the Rockefellers do, which is an application on how to use infinite banking? If you haven’t heard of infinite banking go to simple passive cash flow, calm slash banking, but if anybody doesn’t have any questions into the channel, you guys can type it in. So someone asked here on the YouTube How do you invest in these apartments? Well, it’s just like buying a single family home rental, but add another couple zeros on to it. But a lot of these apartments are very big right inaccessible, most investors so popular method for purchasing apartments is a syndication model. So the analogy I like to use is an airplane. So in the airplane, you have a cockpit of general partners to operate or sponsors were these are the guys who find the apartment, they find the lending, they put the lending in their name, they operate the deal, they make distributions, they kind of do everything. And so passive investors are able to board the airplane, invest in the deal as a passive investor, LP investor, and typically just invest a small sum of money of anywhere from $25,000 to $100,000. As the minimum investment and buy in as a fractional share of this airplane or apartment building, of course, when that happens, securities laws are triggered. So it’s important to have a good lawyer to create documents so that passive investors are protected and general partners are protected to know as soon as you bring on a passive investor, you’ve triggered these securities laws, because why is the is the federal government involved in sec well You’re essentially taking an asset and you’re breaking it up into fractional shares at that point. It’s not like, you know, you have a property and then you know, you partner with a buddy. And you know, both of you guys have collateral. In this case, you’re handing out fractional percentages ownership of an LLC that owns a building. So in the other case, where it might be okay, because you have title to the property, when you do a syndication, passive investors, they don’t have title to the property. They own a fractional share of business, again, an LLC, in a lot of cases. So it triggers securities laws. So passive investors are able to invest, you know, typically around $50,000 and invest in a couple few dozen, you know, firstly stuff a few, but then they grow it to a few dozen properties and assets. And this is something that I learned a while back after I had 11 rental properties, you know, I realized that rental properties just aren’t scalable. You’re going to have a lot evictions, you’re gonna have a lot of things that happen, even if you have property management to deal with all your issues. So that this is where I joined different mastermind groups got around higher level and accredited investors. And I realized that this is how the wealthy invest as private equity investors. So they’re close. They’re, they’re aligned with the operator. They’re not just, you know, investing in retail investments. I think that’s the main thing, getting away from all these like mutual funds and other options that have huge, huge hidden fees involved and getting more closer and cutting out the middleman. And that’s what this is all about. But there’s no more questions. We’ll see you guys next month. And you guys can access all these paths, monthly updates at simple passive cash flow calm slash investor letter, and we’ll see you guys next time. Bye.

This website offers very general information concerning real estate for investment purposes every investor situation is unique. Always seek the services of licensed third party appraisers and inspectors to verify the value and condition of any property you intend to purchase. Use the services of professional title and escrow companies and licensed tax investment and or legal advisor before relying on any information contained here. Information is not guaranteed as an every investment there is risk. The content found here is just my opinion and things change and I reserve the right to change my mind. Above all else, do your own analysis and think for yourself because in the end, you’re the only person who is going to look out for your best interest

May 2020 Market Update Investor – Investor Letter #13

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Costco there was a little flyer in the lunchroom saying that the last day for complimentary food and drinks at the food court will be Friday me. Which kind of is a sign of the times is like we’re getting back to swing of things. The pity party is over and we’re getting back to work. This is a story about a dude named Lane he moved to the mainland and bought one place to stay. And then one day he went try to rent them out. And then he became one real investor. All right, welcome, everybody. This is the May 2020 monthly market update. You guys can access a lot of past my update everybody at simple passive cash flow calm slash investor letter, but we’ll get going here. Obviously a lot of this this month will be surrounding the COVID-19 demick in news

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affecting our real estate investments

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from there, if you guys haven’t heard about me My name is Lane Kawaoka a professional engineer or ex engineer, I’m still have the P. I have a podcast called Simple passive cash flow found on iTunes, Google Play I Heart Radio and also have a pretty robust YouTube channel and if you would like to join our tribe, we have a free Facebook group for to get to know folks in our group a little bit better. So I’m going to run through there’s quite a bit of articles this month. If you guys know my style run through it pretty quickly, but here we go. The shopping center business reports that gap Macy’s koehlers bowls and to furlough most employees as stores remain closed or and COVID-19 and demmick are up Business Online reports that Under Armour to furlough 6600 workers beginning April 12. And I’m going to go a little bit chronologically here to kind of recap the month of April. So I put it this way, because hopefully it puts things a little bit more context for everybody to see how the story unfolded. Of course, March was the first last month march was the first month that COVID-19 kind of took effect. In my opinion, that second third week of March is when things emotionally turn towards kind of the fear base. And what we’re going to kind of see is how the story kind of unfolded here with a lot of big businesses furloughing and people having to stay at home. Commercial Property executive reported beginning of April that us braces for more job losses. Economies expect this week’s unemployment claim number to jump well beyond the record three people 3 million filed last week. And then later on, they reported unemployment ployment claims top 6.6 million. And I do believe later on the month, you know, these numbers and estimates have increased. So with people unable to go out a lot of restaurants and other industries just not able to make money.

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Unemployment, skyrocketed.

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Also in the beginning of month, April 3, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway sells part of their Delta Southwest Airlines steaks, sold about 18% of his Delta Airlines and 4% of their Southwest Airlines. So this is right after I’d say a lot of the big Fallout, the initial fallout of the stock market. A lot of this is you know, kind of duh, obviously this stuff happened. GDP fell at 400 Point 8% annual rate the first quarterly drops since 2014. Worst dropped since 2008. Consumer spending plunged 7.6% the most since 1980. It accounts for 70% of the GDP. Services drop the most on record driven mostly by one industry, health care and demick require providers to pull back on most often drivers like electronic procedures and routine visits. I know in our who invested group, like a lot of the dentists really got hurt bad and a lot of the non emergency doctors wouldn’t take in and do their procedures. So it’s really unusual how this pandemic impacted some people very greatly. And others they were relatively unimpacted next quarter economists are projecting at least a 30% annual decline or a business online Line reports that US economy loses 700,000 jobs in March due to efforts to contain spread of Corona virus. And you can see if you guys are tuning in on the YouTube channel when we do this live you can see sort of the comparison

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on on a graph of how

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the monthly change in job gains normally were hovering around 100 to 200 jobs have created 200,000 100 to 200,000 jobs created July, August, September, October, November, December, January, February, then in March and negative 700,000 per week in review them. I have a couple of these reports in here. This came out in the beginning of the the month. So again, kind of showing how things progressed. Some of the you guys can read it. On the screen here, those of you guys are on the YouTube but I will read some of the highlights here. So they’re commenting and appearing to be past the peak of infections but the US US GDP is expected to contract severely in quarter two, before giving up to stronger growth starting in quarter three supported by government stimulus and pent up demand. They’re calling calling for a second half of the year recovery. Certainly going into 2021 things are looking strong from this and a variety of other sources and this, this is reported by CBR ri. Some of the other highlights here Dallas Fort Worth Houston, Atlanta are hopeful markets to watch as their economies begin to open in phases and these are a lot of the early adopters of those trying to get out there

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quicker than others I do believe in.

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In Texas, a lot of the restaurants are kind of open at this point. I’m glad Her talking to some other partners, frontline workers get access to 3 million hotel guest rooms. And this is one of those, you know, kind of warm and fuzzy articles, where despite the suffering of massive pandemic business loss, the lodging industry is pulling together to provide temporary housing for workers on the front lines. Part of this is probably got to be some kind of trade in the background with the government and the hotel industry. But it’s the right thing to do. I think these are some, you know, some nice, people aren’t staying in hotels, right? hotels are hurting really bad. We’ll kind of get into some of the data that supports that here in a little bit later. The question that’s on everybody’s mind and honestly, what made me a little anxious this month and last month, is are people going to pay their rent? Wall Street Journal’s tried to scare everybody by releasing this article. That headline, nearly a third of us apartment renters didn’t pay for rent. And I don’t know where the heck they’re getting their data from. But this was entirely not true from my point of view, and, hey, maybe they’re just, they’re just taking their survey from a lot of more primary markets, like California, where people got it in their head and they don’t need to pay rent this month. I don’t know where the heck they get that numbers from Instagram. But this is an example of fake news, in my opinion, I mean, Wall Street Journal wrong, but depends how they sampled their data. I like to use these more industry publications multi housing news, reported that the majority of residents paid April rents reported that nearly 70% of rental households across the nation paid their rent this month and then that that was the first week of April. And then the they reported later on the month that rent payments hit 89%. And this is pretty typical what we saw across our portfolio, you know, anywhere from a normal normally collections are in the 95% range, you know, you’re gonna have people not pay period any month. But the impact that Coronavirus and the pandemic had to that number was we saw in the month of April and a little bit for that was a maybe a few point decrease from there. And that’s what is kind of shown across the multi housing news. Another source commented that the rent payment rate at 93% of prior month so it’s, I think this is to be expected. This is what sort of what I personally inspected across my portfolio. You know, there were some slight decline in collections but it is wasn’t a big deal. And those who were going through some trouble we were able to make individual plans with and they eventually caught up later, at the end of the month. Thus far, it is the first week of May. This is not not good data, but thus far it looks like collections are tracking maybe a little bit less than what it was in May. But still overall, I’m, I’m pretty, pretty relieved from what I’m seeing.

10:36
We’re going to kind of dig into some of the individual asset classes and see how they’re, they’re faring. But multi housing news is has an article will student housing be impacted? And Heck, Yeah, it is. A lot of kids had to get pulled out of colleges couldn’t finish up the year and a lot of parents, here’s the deal. A lot of parents are the ones who make the financial decisions and a lot of parents are a little apprehensive is their kid going to go back to his or kids school is going to open a time. So a quote that I pulled from here is, it was common that I think the reality is in a fairly likely scenario that some of the pre leasing will be backloaded until parents and students feel comfortable with the university’s fall semester will open. That’s a wait and see. And this is this is why in my box, I don’t really focus on student housing because very impacted by times like these office leasing now commercial property executive had an article and they quote, tenants and landlords are all trying to work together on understanding the respective needs for one another. I’d even go as far as say lenders are doing the same thing. Everybody is trying to play nicely in that sandbox. And we can all understand that right now. People are not going into the office. They are taught to work from home for the most part, and that this is dropping the demand for housing or for office space. And maybe it might lead to a longer term trend that people don’t need to go into the office. We didn’t need all these good meetings to get things done we’re good with work working virtually I know I am. Short term rentals. I think these are the ones getting killed the most there was a great article. You guys can check out CB lab COMM But was entitled can Airbnb survive Coronavirus, air DNA which is a great source for data for you guys who do do short term lease lease rentals. They said that there was a dropping 80% compared to the previous week in the beginning of March. bookings in New York City, San Francisco and Seattle had dropped more than 50% compared to the week beginning January, and drops over 35% in Washington, DC and Chicago. Again, this is another reason why I don’t invest in short term rentals. And you guys, there’s an article I wrote about the cons of short term rentals at simple passive cash flow calm, slash STL. For short term rental or str. Slash str is that URL. Another image of some of the Airbnb bees from air DNA showing on a graph. All much of a decline from the beginning of March to the end of April. In terms of bookings contracted, I think a lot of like, you know, here in Hawaii, and I’m sure this is across the nation. There was a lot of government regulation over they wanted to shut down down these short term rentals and people who had short term rentals, they’re desperate they need to pay their mortgage because they weren’t getting any, any type of tenants to come through. So they’re being very strategic or tricky on when they would list it so they would hide it away from their the government regulators. Again, which I don’t really condone doing that type of stuff. I don’t stick to a normal investment like workforce housing, something that that everybody needs. So here’s a graph that retreat advisors put together where they just put all the asset classes on a graph and show which ones get impacted the most. Some of the more sensitive to a pandemic short term rentals sniffs which are assisted living developments senior house Students housing, gaming, lodging I think these are like a lot of the hospitality think Las Vegas. And then strip malls and malls are impacted some of the things that aren’t the bottom of the list of you know, little impact or short term rentals, apartments, industrial storage.

15:34
And that that leads to the, you know, what should you invest best value in a downturn might be workforce housing says multi housing news. They came up with this white paper, assessing the impact of a recession related to COVID-19 crisis might have on apartment properties. So they came up with this analysis on Which they created this category of vulnerable industries, which is comprised of those who work in hospitality and food. So you know, thinking restaurants or people like that. And, and like hotels or casinos, that type of stuff. They took those type of people who are getting hit the hardest. And they tried to figure out where did these people live right like if you if you are a landlord, you have one of these people working or paying your rent. So they realize that 52% of these guys are living in houses, they’re renting houses.

16:45
Another 28% are in single family home.

16:50
And if it sorry, the 52% was houses that they own themselves 28% our rent, they’re renting single family homes and just 18% of these guys are In apartments while they found the rentals. So, again, the conclusion of this article was that a vulnerable industries hospitality and food, only 18% of these guys are an apartment and therefore the single family home landlord is going to get hit harder. things to think about right because you know, you try and bulletproof your portfolio to whatever can happen. And pandemic is just one of those things that we have just added to the list. So CB re came up with this executive summary in the beginning of April. Some of the highlights here are, you know, all this will lead to increased multifamily vacancy and declining rents over the next two months. And they expect the multifamily market to bottom out in quarter three and begin a recovery in 2020. For. So they’re seeing us kind of popping right out of this overall vacancy expected to rise at 2.7 percentage points to 6.3 in quarter three and fully recover in 2021. The Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates near zero until full employment returns and inflation exceed so so that’s something to keep in mind for those of you guys who are always constantly monitoring those, those rates and wanting to refinance or or pull money out.

18:39
CNBC reports that JP Morgan Chase to re raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook Garcons. So, people are saying, well, like there’s gonna be a lot of distress inventory of this COVID-19 thing which I don’t really quite buy. I mean, if it was if it gets that issue I probably wouldn’t buy it. But the problem is with this theory is like, what’s happening is the lending market is getting more difficult. So if your deal gets better, which I’ll argue that may or may not be true and your lending gets worse, then is it really a better deal, I mean on lending as part of this whole equation. So, from from, you know, middle of April, customers applying for a new mortgage will need a credit score of at least 700 and will be required to make a down payment equal to 20% of the home value. So that credit score need is coming up. So the change highlights how banks are quickly shifting gears to respond to the darkening US economic outlook. So what does that mean? Well, more apartment renters and people renting because they can’t meet the qualifications to buy a house. And I think this also means Lower condo prices, because they’ll be less demand for condos. Because a lot of the guys who are on the bubble with lending are the guys who don’t have much money at all. So they’re trying to get into condos as opposed to you know that that second or for lifetime house, the bigger house. Other developments and this is more affecting us on our our multifamily apartments or bigger commercial deals, people are always asking, you know, how does it impact us? So, fannie and freddie mac backed agency that is now requiring six to 18 months of payments in reserve. And this just means that we essentially we can kind of borrow less less proceeds, which slightly lowers returns, not much but it you know, this is all just kind of moving the needle very slightly. It depends on the debt service coverage ratio of the deal. But this can have a negative impact on whether a deal works or not. There have been also some changes in forbearance based on some of the agency debt and ultimately I think this flows down to the single family home mom and Paul landlord. See some of the the guidances and the policy that the Fannie Mae Freddie Mac, the big guys rolling up to the bigger operators in syndication deals, top 15 fastest growing mega cities on on here. First one is Gonzo. I don’t know if I’m saying that right. Cairo, Jakarta, Indonesia Tokyo at 33 million New Delhi but the point of putting this up The discussion that was happening in this article is, with this whole pandemic, thing may potentially being a part of our lives in the future. Perhaps these mega cities are less of a option people is going to be, you know, people are going to want more space, they’re going to want to move to the suburbs. The United States biggest city, which is New York has 15 million people, which is only 15 on this list. So that’s the question, right? Are these bigger cities? Are people going to want to live downtown? Are they are they going to want to move out to the suburbs and have more space? I think these are some of the more the macro trends. If you’re an investor and you’re buying an individual deal, that makes sense. I think it’s sort of it’s sort of this doesn’t matter to you. I mean, I think this type of data is for the guys who are investing Like 10s of millions of dollars, and they’re buying it on an institutional level, but you as a mom and pop investor should always be buying the outlier deal that doesn’t matter if it’s in the deep in the heart of the city or out in a tertiary market. I think that the biggest things are are you buying at a discount? Are the rents undervalued and his ability to pump rents? We talked a little bit about which asset classes are hurting the most and which ones are more resilient. This is a slide on which sectors

23:38
and mainly what markets are to be on the lookout for.

23:44
As I mentioned earlier, some of the biggest impacted

23:50
sectors are leisure and hospitality employment. And those ones that the top some of the top 10 are Las Vegas. Orlando for Mickey Mouse the Florida coast Orange County and then San Antonio, San Diego, Miami, Austin Charlotte Los Angeles. So not saying that there will be a you know, these are at risk thing not to say that there’ll be another pandemic in the future, right? Who knows, but this is just another thing to kind of keep on your radar. Add your add on to your laundry list of other things tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, locusts and append them. Which industries did better this past month? Well, grocery stores went up 26% and the losers were closing clothing. I’ll be closure of all the malls and people just aren’t the only way to impress anybody. You don’t need to buy clothes again. Your times had a cool article. I like how they have you know, their interactive graphs. You know, people are spending more money on groceries, less on travel. shopping and transportation, who are the winners, shops, supermarkets, General merchants and e commerce. Home Improvement saw an increase. I don’t know how they became essential stay at home or so they’re able to stay open. But I went to Home Depot to buy some seeds to plant in my garden because I was bored and then the line was like going outside. And some of the losers were airlines cruises fitness. A lot of gyms are hurting. movie theaters lodging and apparel. Alcohol sells well. I’m just another way of you know, movie theaters. I’m sure some of the losers movie theaters, events and attractions, toys, entertainment, book retailers arts and crafts, music sporting goods were some of the big losers. Some of the winners were gaming and video streaming and music streaming. So a lot of people playing at home playing video games, passing the time. Again, I I bought one of the Echelon bikes that you work out and there was like a one month backlog. And I also bought a better webcam to come to you guys at 4k and that thing is still on backorder last month we reported that Cheesecake Factory was going bankrupt. Well, the RV business online reports that Rona capital invest $200 million to keep them alive. So you guys can continue to have your cake. At least that’s the ticker symbol for Cheesecake Factory or a business online officer reports at Amelie buys multifamily development site on South Broadway in Denver. Now for those you guys know who Amelie is Emily is a developer that focuses on residential Class A. So these are pretty hip places to live a lot of like, I would say like the yuppies will live in Emily’s they’ll have a movie theater inside the amenity someone might even have bars. I would call them Class A rentals more than luxury type. But you know they’ll they’ll build in a lot of the big sick primary markets and big institutional player but when the way I read this type of article is like, I’m kind of seeing that all Mali, their their institutional player, they’re going to do the research, but maybe when they go on ups, maybe when I think that a, by the time they actually build the thing, the market has maybe got an overheated, starting to pull down. So you guys can interpret this type of news however you guys want, but that’s just my two cents. Commercial cmbs late payments starting to mushroom. So this is another kind of stress tests on different asset classes on some of the late payments. delinquency is starting to happen and well, below you’ll see a lot of these hotel retail multifamily industrial office all had sub 3% delinquency, and hotel jumped all the way up to 20%. One every five hotels are behind on their payments. One on every 10 retail 10% are behind on their payments and multifamily industrial and office are all around 5% or less so they are less impacted by this bill. Again, you know, this is a data hotel and retail are getting killed out there. One of the biggest

28:40
hot topics that’s been happening in our Facebook group is people are complaining that they can’t evict people. And so here is a map put together by Marcus and Milla job, outlining which states have moratoriums on eviction.

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Most of them do at this point.

29:04
Some of the ones obviously a lot of the blue states will have this. Some of the states with no programs are Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia, South Dakota. Well, no one who lives in South Dakota and nobody cares about that. states that suspended court eviction proceedings, not necessarily had an eviction moratorium where New Mexico Wyoming, Idaho, North Dakota,

29:37
Maine, Vermont,

29:39
and

29:42
I don’t know what that is. I don’t investor near Kentucky, and Virginia. Hey, simple, passive casual listeners. I’m wearing my sleeve shirt here because we make our money in our sleep. One of those things that I’ve been playing around with is tradeline hacking, and if you haven’t heard of that, it’s a great way to make Make some side cash hundred a bunch of books off each credit card every month. To learn more go to simple passive cash flow calm slash tradelines and check out our E course to learn all about this cool way to make some money on the side. We’re going to get into a little bit of actionable things you guys can do and I’ve been, I have been keeping a list and a running note sheet of all the COVID-19 cares act. developments at simple passive cash flow calm slash COVID-19. serve a living guide. Always consult your CPA attorney and do your own due diligence but here Here are some of the developments that happened this past month. So you guys should have received your your share of the 16 million checks the most checks through direct deposit, may 4 Iris will start the seven paper stimulus checks. And I’m pretty impressed how much how quickly they actually moved in and actually got the eight out to where it’s needed most. One of the biggest perks of the cares act is that you’re able to take $100,000 out of your retirement funds and what I call jailbreaking getting it out of those property mutual funds and into real investments. So the cares Act allows each person so you can you can take 100 grand and your spouse can take 100 grand penalty free normally there’s a 10% early withdrawal penalty, but with the care under the cares act, as long as you’re impacted by the COVID-19 thing, which in my opinion, are to consult your own professional or get a new professional. We are all impacted. So you might, you might be able to take that out and pay the taxes back in three years, I think is the what the guidance to say. If you don’t want to withdraw, maybe you want to, now’s the time you’ve been mulling it over at home, you want to do a rollover. Here’s a nice rollover chart. Whether going from Roth traditional simple IRA, SEP IRA, 457 403, B or any design Roth account, a lot of the retirement information is located on my GOP site at simple passive cash flow calm slash q RP, which is short for a qualified retirement plan. So here is a map of the United States showing which states small businesses were able to get the payroll protection aid. A lot of during the first 10 days of the federal government small business rescue program. It was crazy guys. I mean, the money was just going out and One of the headlines was that the bigger companies who were asking for more got help first because the lazy banker just want to get it out. And it’s easier when you disapprove the top five guys and instead of the bottom 5050 something guys, I guess you don’t blame them when the goal is to get the money out. Again, a lot of more COVID-19 developments we have a great webinar that we did on April 15 with my CPA, again that that video is hosted at simple passive cash flow calm slash COVID-19. So if you guys haven’t been keeping up in March, beginning of March, the Fed drop the funds wait rate to zero percent. And the analogy I like to use is we gave up all our dry powder at that point and I was actually kind of surprised they they dropped it so quickly. Normally they’re dropping the rate, maybe a quarter point more half a point but they dropped to think like a full point or more just in a matter of a few weeks. So no more dry powder, which is a little scary, but then they came through later on and signed the cares Act, which is 2 trillion or minus would be a gazillion dollars. In my opinion, you got to pay that back probably with higher taxes in the future. Some of the provisions of the COVID-19 cares act enacted on March 27, was a five year carry back on net operating losses. And I would consult your CPA on on a lot of these things. On one of our deals, we had submitted the K ones back to the CPA

34:43
to take advantage of some of this stuff. Here’s some markets likely to experience a longer post COVID-19 recovery, Florida because of the high population of visitors and 19 percent of their population is over 65 and older, New York mostly because of the density. They might have a lot of people moving out is what they do they say and off 63 million tourists per year so a lot of visitors there. And Illinois because of everybody knows Illinois everybody wants out of Illinois. One of the reasons the high corporate taxes, they have a 45% increase in January 2020. High property taxes. People are just leaving that city that poor city of Chicago source on this a CL and Associates a markets likely to exceed a long recovery. Again, more California. They locked out 40 million people for many weeks is economic, devastating high gas taxes, unfunded pension liabilities and they ranked Number 48 of all US states and overall economic freedom. Well, that’s why they call it the Socialist Republic of California. Nevada is another one that’s going to see it hard. 56 million tourists 50 million are in Las Vegas. Just going to be those casinos and hotels are going to be hit the hardest. airline hub cities like Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago, New York, Denver, Orlando, Washington, DC, la Seattle, Charlotte, Houston, Seattle, are among the top airports for passenger traffic. And then oil dependent markets because you know, behind this COVID-19 there was just another big headline of all the crude oil dropping prices. A lot of these are like Houston, real estate sectors likely to experience and how enhance building operation regulations, which is typically not good for the mom, Pon vesser. Sometimes the institutions can actually benefit from this. But these are lodging facilities or apartment communities, retail centers, gaming facilities, health care, office buildings, commercial conference facilities, entertainment centers, outdoor assembly venues, I’m sure they’re going to tell everybody to wipe surfaces like five times a day or do whatnot. It’s just going to make business harder in these sectors impact on COVID-19 on development. You could see incorporating more hands free amenities like motion, active doors, restroom faucets, tissue dispensers, parking gate, doors and building designs. You know, more point of sale stuff come out. I mean, like when I would go pick up my food it just kind of befuddled me how you saw that like sign the credit card thing and put the credit card and I guess or like press the screen I’m like, can’t they like just call it good and as soon as it touches touches, utilization of new building materials, inclusion of pandemic in forced mature clauses in construction contracts. I know on our syndication documents I think that word got like thrown in in like future feature versions, which is just added to the laundry list of things that can go wrong. upgrades to h fac systems regarding air quality and circulation and regular on site health inspections during construction before certificate occupancy is cut. But it’s not all doom and gloom why real estate will remain a preferred investment class. Post COVID-19 is still in a low interest rate environment. Americans need a place to live like apartments they need a place to shop like grocery anchored retail and produce distribute goods in warehouse and distributed facilities.

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Continue strong demographics, population still going up and favorable tax treatments with all the goodies in there like the 1031 carried interest, capital gains opportunity zones, cost segregations etc. So I’ve been watching a lot of other informational videos with my time and one of these is some content done by Richard Duncan economists. Um, you can see some of his past work and podcasts at simple passive cash flow calm slash Duncan, but I subscribed to his newsletter, it’s a paid program. So it sounds like some free stuff. But you know, he he kind of outlined some demand shocks as inflationary demand shocks that will increase demand and push prices higher. And that’s what happens in a war and the deflationary demand shock that increases demand and pushes prices lower like however in a Coronavirus example Like this. So that’s how a situation where a war, inflationary demand is and a deflation in demand like how we’re at now. It’s just interesting that like, kind of hear from more academic viewpoint of what what’s happening here. Some of the supply shocks were decrease supply push prices higher was the oil shocks in the 1970s and other deflationary supply shocks increase supply and push prices lower, which can be a event like the general globalization. There was a big controversial headline that came out where California was forcing landlords to reduce rents by 25%. Even if a tenant cannot demonstrate their hardship or need, allowing judges and the court system to set rents and change the rental agreements already in place. I’m not going to read the other two books. point, but you guys are probably getting upset. But hopefully this does not go through in California. But this is another reason why you don’t invest in California or if we state that stuff kind of happens. More than a third of the population lives in states that are partially reopened or will soon This might be obsolete by now. I think the things to watch out for are Texas and and George are are some of the front runners in this and see how they react. I think most people who are kind of, you know riding that the fear train, are scared of that second wave. Will it happen? Will it won’t? I mean, it probably will. But yeah, there’s there’s two kind of voices out there. One that you know, says you know, enough is enough. We need to get out there when you get the economy going. And of course the other one is, you know, we need to kind of protect human life. One of the best models I’ve seen of this Is this thing right here, that kind of predicting that we got to the peak? Now we’re gonna see the second third wave. And then how does the vaccine fall into all this? I’ve been following a lot of the vaccine happenings at stack news.com. But everybody’s, you know, thinking that it’s either going to be later on this year or, you know, some people are like, well, three years from now. It’s been affecting the stock market every day. And that’s why I don’t invest in the stock market, so emotional. Whereas I think, you know, where we’re tracking with collections and May, and how we’re already kind of getting back to work. I think the impact is very little. I don’t want to say that too soon, because I don’t feel like we’re out of the woods. But you know, that’s why you invest in real estate and especially cash flow for these situations like this. All different ways that people are kind of viewing this pandemic and how we’re coming out is going to be at Nike swish is going to be a V is the beginning of the end or, you know, some people are even optimistic. One quick reminder that that, you know, some of the older HIV AIDS SARS MERS Ebola measles Zika virus, you know, the six months after show, sometimes a quite a big, big of a gain. After SARS, things bounce 14 and a half percent. Stock market returns are going to go up and down.

43:40
But I think you know if that’s why, again, you invest in real estate, this was a model that I made last month, which kind of showed Well, at what point does my real estate book down in value? Well, the first step here was the Black Swan event happened which is the Coronavirus then fear set in I will say this was probably in the beginning. till March 15. And then when the stakeholders began, business income definitely decreased. Companies cut jobs as as outlined early in April. But I don’t think we got to a point where the tenants couldn’t pay the rent. And again, I don’t want to jinx thanks for myself. But um, based on where collections are, I’d say the books kind of stuck between us tenants can pay rents, and we didn’t really see market vacancies go up. Hopefully this this, the trend doesn’t continue. But there were a few other stock gaps to happen before our prices go down, which is decrease market rents, which impacts lower operating income, which means less income for properties. And then that impacts the macro market to be higher cap rates, which equates to lower property values. And this is why we invest in real estate. I think after all, this is all said and done. People are Gonna be just dumbfounded. How much was $2.3 trillion was spent to basically have people stay at home and not just stop the economy. How are we going to pay for this? I don’t know. But it’s probably going to be higher taxes in the future or finding some ways to get at the retirement funds of everybody. Investors are kind of cheering in their homes because when you own rental properties, you own commodities, you want houses and as things inflation starts to happen to pay off all these debts, I’m pretty much riding on the right side of the wave of this thing is your properties kind of go up as inflation starts to happen. The kind of wrap things up the with the news, you know, to take a page out of Edward de Bono’s philosophy yellow hat which is the optimistic hat to counteract all the fear mongering out there. Here’s some of the good things that’s been happening you know, appreciation for stay at home spouses. I don’t think people realize how much work that was to, to watch the kiddos, people getting outside and walking around and embracing physical fitness. I look outside in the evenings it looks like Halloween out there with all the people walking around, although they’re not wearing any costume. Virtual Learning being accepted. And I think in our corporate settings, less streaking meetings. Amen to that. We’re actually getting things done and we don’t have to see each other face to face. People. I think what’s nice is people are questioning the news and media. There’s so much information out there and people have their smartphones and their computers and trying to figure out you know, the nobody knows what’s really the fact out there. There’s some reports and some real like, like videos of like hospitals. being filmed and yet there’s other things that are being recorded. Number five here appreciation for teachers who watch our kids. I think this week is Teacher Appreciation Week.

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So if you have a teacher, I would encourage you to get them something nice even though there’s not going to be that last day of school for them on number six time with our smaller family units. And let’s face it, if you’re kind of listening to this economic report, you’re probably in the upper half of the economic scale and you may be doing the white collar warranty. Nothing wrong with that. It’s just, you know, I think we can all be fortunate that we are able to just call grubhub and get takeout and, you know, we we have our jobs and we’ll continue to bring in our salary and income. And at the end of the day, this is just a time where we We just work closer to our immediate nuclear family. And another cool thing or the creation of virtual wine tastings and zoom cocktail parties. We had a couple of these, these with our simple passive cash flow group and our mastermind recently, a lot of fun. And it’s a thing now for wine tastings, check it out. More VOD, some other trends online shopping more effective through Amazon and visa remote base environments, outsource it. contactless transactions coming. I think you’re going to see about a lot more and more telemedicine for medical and veterinary clinics. So that kind of wraps up the the monthly report. Um, the next few slides are about what’s going on with me personally, as I kind of make my way through this world. I’m always trying to find ways to grow and This month what I put together was I created a completed my trade line course, which I’ve been working on in 2019 to guinea pig for you guys. So I made $10,000 putting authorized users onto my credit cards and in my spare time and so I put a resource out there for you guys to check out simple passive cash flow comm slash trade lines. There is also a company force along with that if you guys want to dig into it and actually do the hobby make up the six five figures I guess I guess you could make six figures you have enough credit cards. Next on my list is I’m I’m trying to help out people getting started with this real estate thing and I’m trying to work on the turnkey remote rental course already have a couple modules in my ecourse and simple passive cash flow calm slash course but I think then the feedback I’m getting from a lot of people appreciate the feedback from a lot of you guys that said, it’s just a lot of stuff. So I’m trying to break them out into more individual shorter courses for you guys. How I get contributed to this world this month? Well, we a lot of the K ones come back and we gave our passive investors a lot of great losses on their taxes. Here’s an example k one from one of our investors who put in $100,000, they got back $98,000 of passive losses on line two, they’re also way I tried to communicate, contribute to the community was I gave away my ecourse access for the quarantine time because I figure a lot of people are busy or not doing anything at home, they got a little more time on their hands. And look, these are interesting times uncertain times, whatever you want to call it. And I just feel like people needed a break. So I just figured I’d give it away for free. For the time being, it’s normally 800 bucks. Hopefully, if you guys like it, you guys will pay for it. So we can try and find and use the money to improve the program for the next guy coming through. But for just the rest of this month, that coupon code is cool. Okay, oh, you have access to that expires at the end of this month. However, other ways that I got significant this month, my stocks did not go down 30% in value, so I felt very special about that. I didn’t have stocks, I don’t invest in that stuff. And it didn’t go employed. There’s always a you always have to try and create uncertainty in your life, um, and there was a lot of uncertainty in my life. staying at home just watching I would watch a lot more news than normal.

51:53
And there’s always a little low level of anxiety that is my tans going to pay rent and as of today, With me looking Okay, with a little bit easier, one month at a time, and I think we’re kind of coming out of it, but I’m not going to jinx myself. Some things I achieve certainty. So we lock, the lending market kind of froze up there March. But we have our lenders locked up for our next project. And things are looking good there. So it’s always nice to have some certainty in your life that you can kind of move forward and kind of tackle the next project. I think it’s hard to find love and connection in our lives these days. But you know, virtual cocktail parties was one way of doing it. But soon we’ll be able to get out there and hang out with each other. Once again. Some new articles and podcasts I like to highlight again, the trade line article, learn how to make I made $110,000 in 2019. And I’ll continue to do so simple passive cash flow calm Straight lines and the cares act guide, double pass a casual comm slash COVID-19 to see how you can get some of your whether it’s the PPP, Hero protection, or the idol grants, or some of those. Some distractions I had to deal with is, you know, being at home and kind of a lot of the world slowing down a little bit, I have no excuses not to get anything done. And there is time to do, what, what I need to do. It’s just of all a matter of priorities. And this is why I encourage all of you guys to get a coach, my coach really helped me define what I needed to get done and what are the barriers and also man, like I said earlier, like my coaches effectively just calls me on my Bs and keeps me moving. And some people aren’t willing to pay a little bit money for that, like Well, that’s cool. But um, all people in my peer group who do Real Estate and you know, entrepreneurs will swear by it their their coach, which is kind of a glorified accountability partner but um you know some people believe one thing somebody the other All I know is I want to be like one subset and seven to follow what they do some fun things I bought this month we call them doodads because they don’t put money in our pocket, but let’s just acknowledge the fact that we’re just blowing some cash on that. I bought that Echelon mirror. actually haven’t used it yet. But I got it working all over report next time on how it’s been working. And I really like popcorn. So I found this thing on Amazon where it’s like a 10 pack variety set. I didn’t know there was 10 varieties of popcorn. But you can you can see which one you like the best. I like that mushroom one out on the left side but they give you like 10 bags 10 different varieties of popcorn kind of cool. Some of the lessons learned I had this month was the pay consultants navigate that PPP of idle grants and loans. Um, this is something I’d really like to spend my time on. You know, I have the COVID-19 guide that you guys can pick through and to see if it’s appealing. But, you know, I’m kind of changing the way I do business where I stopped trying to be cheap, easy and free. Because normally I get hurt, hurt doing that. So weighing back to see what I get from the PPP and idle grants. And as a group, we have a book club, you can join that at simple passive cash flow calm slash lien hack. And the title that we are reading by Mark Manson is everything is theft. I thought it would be a cool book about

55:52
with everything uncertain in the world.

55:57
It’s a book about hope, and I like Mark Manson. He’s kind of got a more of a stoic viewpoint on the world. And

56:04
it’s a good book on philosophy.

56:09
And again, if you guys are interested in joining the passive investor accelerator mastermind we do a couple calls on Mondays every month, you get the course for free, we have 50 plus numbers in there now most of which are accredited. So if you guys are tired of kicking tires with the other people at the local Ria, who don’t have money, or the other trolls on the online, free online forums out there, and you want to actually build real relationships with real people who are sort of filtered and coming into this community, go to simple passive, casual comm slash journey, we just got a membership coordinator to help facilitate some of the networking because it’s all about getting people to connect within our group and to extract the most value we can for each member and they kept things off Here’s a little thing I found on Reddit I guess at Costco there was a little flyer in the lunchroom saying that the last day for complimentary food and drinks at the food court will be Friday me, which kind of is a sign of the times is like we’re getting back to swing of things. The pity party is over, and we’re getting back to work. So again, a lot of this stuff here. Consult your own legal professionals. This is information is presented for informational purposes only. But unless we have any questions we’ll see you guys next month. Oh Ha.

57:44
This website offers very general information concerning real estate for investment purposes every investor situation is unique. Always seek the services of licensed third party appraisers inspectors to verify the value and condition of any property you intend to purchase. Use the services of professional title and as companies and licensed tax investment and or legal advisor before relying on any information contained here and information is not guaranteed as an every investment there is risk. The content found here is just my opinion and things change and I reserve the right to change my mind. Above all else, do your own analysis and think for yourself because in the end, you’re the only person who is going to look out for your best interests.

#12 – 2020.04 – The SPC Greensheet

Dear investor,

Our country has been in crisis this past month with two black swans: 1) Covid19 economic shutdown and 2) Oil price wars.

Let’s review the facts and keep things in prospective.

This is the time when we need to rely on our online community for support. Please join our Hui group.

 

Turnkey $10,000 grant & loan setup from the 2020 CARES ACT services (or pay nothing) – Sign up here

 

Links to the PDF slide-deck.

Video format of this Month’s investor letter:

  1. How to Fill Out the New W4 Tax Form in 2020 & Should you extend?
  2. Can I Get a Home Loan if I am Self Employed?
  3. Do Commercial Loans Count Towards the Fannie Mae Loan Limit?
  4. How to Pick the Right Coach for You
  5. Save Money on Taxes – eQRP Changes for 2020 – Extended contribution period
  6. Save Money on Taxes with this Trick
  7. How Much Downpayment Should You do on an Investment Rental Property
  8. SDIRA/401K Retirement Account Killer the QRP
  9. SPECIAL CALL (20.03.23) – Covid19 Investor Action Plan
  10. COVID19 Greensheet

 

  1. Implications for Commercial Real Estate (March 3, 2020) from CBRECommercial real estate fundamentals entered this crisis in an extremely strong position. Moreover, labor markets are very tight, and companies likely will maintain their employment levels through the crisis. Nevertheless, property markets will reflect the broader economy, which is expected to see a short-term slowdown. Should the spread of the virus prove to be only seasonal, impacts will lessen as the weather warms, allowing for stronger growth in the second half of the year. Capital markets transactions likely will slow for the time being, but capital values should be resilient. Additionally, there may be some impact on leasing, as decisions on new space are deferred until later in the year. With the 10-year Treasury trading at historically low levels—below 1% for the first time—low interest rates will be a positive factor for property markets. Hotels: There has been a reduction in business and leisure travel, both globally and domestically. Using the SARS pandemic of 2003 as an example, the hotel industry could be severely impacted for up to six months. Retail: Near-term impacts will occur due to reductions in travel, particularly for food & beverage establishments, entertainment venues and fashion retailers. Omnichannel retailers could see some near-term upside as consumers avoid stores and shopping malls, but consumer sentiment may weigh on the sector over a longer period. Industrial: Manufacturing and distribution facilities may be impacted by lack of inventory as supply chains are disrupted. Broader economic impacts could further weigh on the industrial sector as reductions in both supply and demand ripple across the economy. Conversely, if the virus prompts more people to shop for goods and food online, this would bolster demand for last-mile distribution space. Office and Multifamily: Impacts on fundamentals in these sectors likely will be secondary and more closely associated with overall economic activity.

    Construction: Building material supply chains are being affected with significant backlogs at Chinese ports. Imports from other parts of Asia are also being impacted. Multifamily construction likely will feel the most acute effects due the importance of Asian-sourced materials for residential construction.

  2. See covid19 cheatsheet here
  3. The rise of remote real estate investingHousing Wire
  4. Public Housing Is Part of the Housing Crisis – MHN – [I think public housing developments like Trump Village in NY is the only killer to Value Class C and B housing] 
  5. FROM CBRE – Oil
    • Oil prices plummeted by more than 30% on Monday, the largest drop since 1991, putting financial markets on edge
    • The U.S. 10-year Treasury fell to a record low of 0.32%, down by 80 basis points (bps) in one week, and the S&P 500 fell by 7.6%—its largest decline since December 2008
    • Energy markets were roiled over the weekend by the failure of OPEC and Russia to agree on production cuts, which was followed by unilateral price cuts by Saudi Arabia
    • A rare dynamic of increasing supply amid lower demand is responsible for the rapid drop in crude prices.
  6. From CBRE – Interest Rate – March 16, 2020
  7. Interest rates cut to zero: The Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by 100 basis points (bps) yesterday to a target range of 0% to 0.25%.
  8. Quantitative easing to keep the cost of credit down: The Fed announced asset purchases of $500 billion in Treasury securities and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities starting today.
  9. Domestic liquidity support to keep credit flowing: The Fed cut the discount rate that it charges banks for short-term loans during times of strain by 150 bps to 0.25%. Bank reserve requirements were cut to zero.
  10. Fed Slashes Rates Again as Coronavirus Pressure Mounts – CPE
  11. The federal income tax filing deadline is still April 15th, 2020. The federal income tax payment deadline moved to July 15th, 2020 for all tax balances less than $1MM. This means you still need to file or do an extension, by April 15th but you’ll have until July 15th to make your payment if you have a balance due. 

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Transcript:

0:01
This is a story about a dude named Lane he moved to the mainland and bought one place to stay. And then one day he went try to rent them out, and then he became one real investor May. Alright, thanks for joining us. This is the April 2020 edition of the monthly market update. You guys can find links to this as simple passive cash flow calm slash cream 12. Obviously, we all know what we’re talking about here today. And that’s the COVID-19 pandemic that we’re gonna be taking up most of the hour.

0:43
If you guys haven’t yet, please join our Facebook group.

0:47
The hooey is that we call it

0:49
and check out my podcasts. You can find it on Spotify, Google Play iTunes, I Heart Radio stitcher and also subscribe to our YouTube Channel, a bunch of other videos I post there that aren’t on the podcasts. And if you guys are in Hawaii join our Meetup group and like I said, the Facebook group here there. So let’s start off at the top of kind of created these in chronological order since the beginning of the month taking us to the end and some action items here. And some ways that I’m things that I’m doing some things my counterparts are doing and some things I suggest passive investors to start doing. So if we recall earlier this month, there was quite a bit of downfall in the market. Down Jones fell, the whole market pretty much fell a third of what it was worth, and that now just remind everybody, this is too big black swans that happen and black and black swans are known as events that just come up out of the blue. You know, most swans are white. And,

1:57
you know, you don’t see black swans, they’re pretty rare.

2:00
And we just happened to get whacked by two of them. One was the Coronavirus COVID-19. And the other one was the Saudis and Russians started to wage this price war against the small oil and gas producers in America. Now all the Exxon Mobil’s the Chevron’s, I think they’ll be all right. But it’s all the smaller

2:25
frackers

2:27
that I think they’re kind of they’re kind of going after and just went into one of those deals in December. So not the best thing. But you know, I’m not too concerned, it’s not like we’re really going to be sucking oil out of that thing for next six months at least. So I’m pretty sure that this stuff will at least restabilizing me not get up to 30 $40 a barrel quite yet, but definitely rebound off this bottom. So there’s a little bit of the timeline. I think the unusual thing that happened was the Fed drop rates very quickly and for those of you guys who’ve been fed Following the previous webinars that we do every month here, you hear me use the same of interest rates are sort of like dry powder. When times are good, what you want to do is increase the interest rate so that in times a bad like now you can lower the Fed funds rate. And you could kind of stimulate the economy that way. But in my opinion, the Fed kind of blew their their whole load early in March. And now we’re pretty much zero percent. And we’ll talk a little bit later about the cares act and some other stimulus that’s coming down. Down the pipeline. I think it’s some of the these are some of the preliminary the first round of the stimulus, but oil prices plummeted more than 30% on around the first week of March 10. year Treasury fell to record low point three 2% down 80 basis points from the previous week. And First week, SMP fell 7.6%. And I think that fall, it’s I haven’t seen volatility this high. I mean, it seems like every day it’s going up 800 to 1500 points, or 15,000 point 1500 points in the Dow, like I said, so here’s what basically is happening as the Russians and Saudis are sort of colluding with each other to, which is price war to get the small oil producers in United States out. It’s, they just kind of, I think they picked the wrong, just a bad time. To do this. It’s a very rare dynamic,

4:38
says CBR E.

4:40
This is a update from CBR. E early in the month, and I’ll say this probably multiple times, but you can see how the story changes from the beginning a month to where we are now. Now an April, how sediment has kind of changed and, you know, we’re kind of reaching At that point of, you know, things are seem really, really bad. Whereas, probably the beginning of the month, you know, most people were sort of still, you know, downplaying this whole event. So CBR it says here that they said this spread of the virus poof. They think it’s only going to be seasonal, and impacts will lessen as the warm weather comes along, along for stronger growth in the second half of the year. Obviously, none of us are thinking that, you know, I think we’ll be lucky. If the growth comes back in the second half year. I’m still optimistic for fourth quarter 2020 and hotels. There comment on hotels early in March using the SARS pandemic of 2003. As an example, the hotel industry could be severely impacted for up to six months. I think today a few weeks just a few weeks later, we’re thinking hotels are absolutely destroyed. Hit. And there’s another layer on top of this. The retail particularly in food and beverage establishments, and now now with a lot of these food and beverage establishments and restaurants out for a few weeks at the very least, a lot of them are going to come back. And it’s a little sad. office space is is impacted, obviously because people aren’t at work and the demand is down. Everyone’s working from home. I’m the one nice thing about this whole thing is construction sort of been labeled as a necessity. necessity. Therefore they haven’t really been impacted. cvra says that supply chains haven’t been impacted with significant backlogs at Chinese ports. imports from other parts of Asia are also being impacted and a lot of multifamily construction is in impacted by Asian source materials for residential construction. So Mind you, this is in the beginning of the month. So we follow along in the story and as the month progress more of the same and here was like a 2300 point decline in the Dow, middle of March, interest rates were cut to zero, and basically went into another round of quantitative easing to keep the cost of credit down. The Fed announced the asset purchases of 500 billion in Treasury securities and 200 billion in mortgage backed securities. So the what the feds doing is they’re trying to cut the discount rate that charges banks for short term loans during times of strange by 150 basis points to 0.25%. And then they’re eventually cut to zero. So we closed on a rate locked on a deal on March 6, and that was absolutely the best time to close alone. The next week later the Fed struck the rates and you would think that the rates would go lower. But it went absolutely the opposite for the first time, I think since forever, the 10 year Treasury and the which is what the interest rates are, what we pay our lenders and the federate decoupled. I don’t entirely know what what caused this phenomenon. There was a podcast, I listened to it. But that’s where my understanding ends there. I honestly don’t really care. It is what it is. So a little bit of a history lesson here, just for some context in December 2007. The Treasury rate was at 4.2%. And that was a good time in and that 4.2 can be representative of how much dry powder there was in the banking system. And in December 2019, the Treasury was at one Point 761. So that was sort of at the pre.

9:03
Last week, it was at 0.75, if you kind of calculate it, and you kind of normalize it for what it was in 2007. So just a little bit context, fed slashes rates again as crona pressure mounts says, crucial property executive as the month moved on. The tax filing deadline got moved back. tax filing deadline is still April 15. However, the Fed income tax payment deadline move to July 15 2020. For all tax benefits, less than $1 million. So this means that you still need to file or do an extension by April 15. But you have until July 15 to make payment if you’re have a balance do me personally, I always just file an October I don’t know anybody does it in in April.

9:57
I mean, that’s what most people do out there, but I don’t understand.

9:59
I mean, as we’ll talk a little bit once, you know, the cares act got approved this past week, and there’s some pretty nifty things you can do by going back to old tax returns in this tax return. If you follow that already, you would have to pay the filing fee. So it really to me, it makes no sense why you would file early. It’s, of course, these are all my interpretations. And I’ve got the disclaimer at the end, but there’s the link irs. gov. You guys can read this all by yourself and make your own interpretations. More news headlines here Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive 70 billion quantitative easing program. Interesting that they they did that the markets still responded negatively. And the Dow futures pointed to a drop of 900 points. So that’s scary when they say they’re going to print money, and the stock market still acts negatively about this middle of the month. Especially in the blue states, cities and counties start to halt evictions and miss the corona virus pandemic. And here are some smaller stories that I picked out. These These are some sort of newer stuff developments in the past in the second half of March that scare me a little bit first Marriott to furlough two thirds of domestic international corporate staff. So Marriott is pretty much indicative of the hotel and travel industry Cheesecake Factory. I know a lot of folks love them out there, but they notified their landlord that they will not be making payments to their rent this month. Kind of scary gap. Macy’s and Kohl’s have announced separately that they’re planning to furlough a majority of employees at their stores and some distribution centers. So I think we’re starting to see, you know, I think America can survive like something like this for a week, but we’re starting to get a little bit deeper into this. You know, Zero production quarantine stage and starting to see the first signs of the destruction. Some of this can be reversed. But you know, the more we more we stay into this, the harder it’s going to be to come out of it. Multi housing news says Coronavirus release package awaits final approval and this is on March 25. And we all know now that it did get approved $2 trillion stimulus. If you write that out in numbers, like I had to Google a trillion that’s bigger than billing is it was a lot of zeros. It’s just an unfathomable amount of money. And we’ll break down the cares act in the end but just to keep up with the chronological order of the sequence. Probably about the middle of the month is when I got together with my mastermind. You know, people were freaked out. We paid $25,000 each to be in this group. So it’s a it’s a group of highly active investors. They only outlet in like the top, a couple people in each metropolitan area. Essentially you got to flip 100 houses per year to get in or syndicate deals and apartment deals so some of their action items and mind you this doesn’t really apply to passive investors but I just wanted to put this in here just so you guys see get a mindset of what a more active investor who’s really you know got their ear on the ground so what they are trying to do is they’re filling vacancies as soon as possible even though they need to reduce the rents five to 15% call their property managers are a lot of these guys are actual property managers and what they’re trying to do is they’re trying to fill the units within one week even on a six month lease and even if you’re having to offer a large reduction in rent, the whole thing is get people in beds and get them in there lock up month to month leases if you have to. And you know, work with your tenants, whatever they want six 912 month lease, now’s not the time they get picky. Normally, you know we’re trying not to have leases ends in the fourth quarter of the holidays. season was a tough time

14:00
when not many people are moving around. But,

14:03
you know, with this pandemic, this is the, you know, you’ve gotta gotta do it. It takes a lot of these guys were using credit card lines and just prepaying their vendors and monetizing those lines, get turning it into cash and just holding it hoarding cash is the term a lot of these guys will do direct marketing. So I’m sure a lot of you guys who own rental properties, get these really annoying postcards, you know, these are the guys these guys send out 5000 to a quarter million dollars of direct marketing a month, you know, just for one person. So they cut that back, but they kept doing their TV ads and their pay per click online ads because we’re all at home, scrolling on our social media feeds and watching TV. And what a lot of these guys did was cut staff cut overhead, which obviously you don’t really like to do as a business owner. Me personally I’ve kind of ramped up my hiring and you know, whenever you He’s firing I want to kind of hire and I’ve been trying to increase my hours for my guys, part two here on the slide. These highly active investors are getting he locks monetizing those key locks, getting it into cash, get quotes and refinance properties with mortgages of 5% interest or hire in getting that debt equity out to cash, because cash is sort of like oxygen cash will help you write out a few months of tough times. These guys are recruiting their insurance rates to help lower your expenses. And I’ve got a couple, two or three insurance guys, if you guys need a referral to shoot me an email Lane at simple passive cash flow, you guys can do that. While you guys are stuck at home. But yeah, find ways it’s 2008 2009. Again, find ways to cut costs. So here’s one of the new programs with the cares act. This is you guys can go to sba.gov slash funding dash programs. So these apply If you’re a gig worker, gig economy, 299 worker, a one person business independent contractor, you for hire self employed. Essentially, you’re eligible for a payroll protection loan as long as you have a business with less than 500 employees. So you might be a W two working professional and have a real estate portfolio and I think you still might

16:25
apply this might apply to you.

16:28
I’m working with some consultants who’s gonna pretty much do all the paperwork for you guys. And make sure they do it right and if you guys don’t get paid your $10,000 grant, which is penalty free, tax free interest free, they won’t charge you anything. So if you guys are interested in that, you may not like that simple passive cash flow. But if not, you should be able to go to this website sba.gov and apply there don’t know if you’ll get approved, right? I mean, that’s the nice thing. That’s why I’m just gonna pay my 25 grand or 20 $500 have some have a pro to do. Cuz I’ll be honest, I probably wouldn’t have done it. Anyway, kind of lazy like that. So here’s some qualifications. Again, the biggest one is fewer than 500 employees operates sole proprietor is cool. And an independent contractor, basically, if you’ve been impacted by the COVID-19, which is should be everybody here. So the intention of this SBA loans is for this money to go out to business owners to stimulate the economy. So when they do this, you know, lenders and the SBA guys, they’re pretty lenient on, you know, really helping you trying to get at this money. So there’s a lot of, you know, nuances suits these things, I would just go to sba.gov. Or, you know, again, if you want to do it, the simple, passive and lazy way. Shuman, email, we’ll have the consultant work with you guys. There’s a lot of equations and how much not the loans are different thing. There’s a With the grants and then you know, that’s the one with the money back guarantee. But the loans is another one that the consultants can help you on, on, I mean, you can get up to a million dollars of loans at like 3.23% to 5% on these things, I think this is really where the consultant really comes into play. And you can get some really nice long term money I believe, you know, these are backed by the government and I believe I don’t know if it’s non recourse or recourse but it’s pretty sweet debt. A lot of times that, you know, the reason why they’re giving you this is that you’re not firing your employees or laying them off. Of course, you know, you you, you might have an employee that you don’t want to have and this is a great time to get rid of them. Of course, follow your all your human resource practices to do that so you don’t get sued. But this is not an all or nothing type of thing. So here is what we are doing. going at our properties, I’m a general partner and 3500 units, first week of April here, we still don’t know if we’re going to be impacted very much. And in terms of this COVID-19 thing, a lot of investors have been a little excited. But, you know, this is the exact reason why you invest in workforce housing. You know, hard assets, it the value just doesn’t disappear overnight, like the stock market. And to me, I call those fake it’s all fake money. I mean, a lot of people are saying, well, it’s down. I’m gonna go go in now as it bounces, but I’m like, whatever man, like, you know, you must be smarter than I am. I’m a dummy. I’m just going to invest in these hard assets that produce rents. So what we are doing you know, what we’re, we’re obviously doing all the you know, the legalities in terms of committing cating to tenants. Yes, COVID-19 is Real and Steph is upgrading sanitation processes. We are following the stay at home for guidance of the CDC government agencies. We are addressing work orders but becoming more of a remote work arrangement for the property management staff where possible, and we’re getting a little selective on what maintenance items we are doing because we don’t know how this is going to play out as the quarantine goes in. And we all know at some point people run out of cash reserves

20:32
and they have trouble paying the rent.

20:35
new prospects are being directed to websites and some self guided tours with property proper ID and some of you guys are looking to sell properties or buy properties you know, you can do it virtually. But definitely a lot of the air has gone out of the man for buying properties, especially in California. Where the that was worth The Coronavirus sort of hit first and one thing we are doing is we are constantly reinforcing that the rent is still due but we’re being pretty tactful not to draw too much attention to it. Because, you know, if we draw too much attention to it now our tenants will start to think that they are entitled to not paying, like how a lot of people in the blue states are thinking, um, a lot of the properties that we have tenants in are in the red states and they haven’t officially cut off evictions, like a lot of the blue states. But we just don’t want to give them any ideas. Right I mean, it’s still business as usual. You live there, you got to pay rap. Simple. Here’s a list from wallet hub of the most over leveraged cities and the least over leveraged cities, and I just pulled this because I just want to sort of see of, you know, where the hotbeds for the people who are going to have the most trouble Now that the tide is sort of going out a little bit this Coronavirus, some of the notables are the most over leveraged places are a lot of California places. I think we can all know which ones they are Beverly Hills, Santa Monica. couple places on Hawaii of a beach in Hawaii. And then the lease over leveraged cities. So this is the list you want to be on. A bunch of places in Ohio, Ohio. A lot of the smaller towns you guys have probably never heard of, I think the most Decatur, Georgia, Naples, Florida. You know, a lot of the more blue collar towns, I think is on this list. tips for you guys. Now, lords. Listen to your tenants. You don’t have to make a deal with them right away. But just gather information and try to come to a win win. I mean, we’re all stuck in this together requests. You know, maybe requested offer from the tenant that’s negotiation one on one. Don’t Name your price. If they want an abatement, a rent concession or different deferment, hear them out what do they think that they can do? Maybe it might be less than what you’re willing to give them. Some news in the shopping center space, halting evictions for 90 days, avoiding rent increase for 90 days creating payment plans waiving late fees, identifying government and community resources to help secure food, financial assistance, healthcare and other services. You as a landlord can give resources maybe they don’t know how to apply for unemployment if they’ve been laid off. Helping them helps you in the long run. Here is a sample letter that one number in our hooey gave their tenants not saying that you should use it. I didn’t use it. Like I said, I’m taking the moral stance that we are. We’re not trying to draw too much attention. into it, or senses rent is still due but weren’t Yeah, we’re not gonna give people any ideas that it’s not. So it’s up to you if you want to give your tenants something like that. Some bigger changes that I’m doing for future future acquisitions. Overall I’m pretty bullish and wants to come after we get through this. This Coronavirus and oil crisis, the light at the end of tunnel we don’t see it yet. But I’m getting ready because you know, if you want to get on the next deal, you’re going to have to put it in contract 30 to 60 days, due diligence 3060 days and then ultimately, you know, these things drag out 36 days so you could be looking for a quarter or two before you actually get in have to put down money for a deal. But one thing I’m doing is I’m staying away from class C deals and especially smaller deals. And I’m only going to do a class CTF it’s in a super strong area. No like in Arcadia. Arizona Phoenix, Arizona, Arcadia is a sub market.

25:05
Number two underwriting deals with 4% interest rates and only to two years of interest only. Like I said on March 9, we close the deal at 3.23% 15 year term with a 30 year amortization and four years of interest only payments, that was phenomenal. We couldn’t have timed it any better, but not from here on out which use that 4% and two years of I’ll just be conservative, so we don’t get surprised. And we’re also increasing our assumed economic vacancy going forward just adds a little bit cushion to the model. If you’re listening as a passive investor some potential action plans is I would say first, figure out what your job status is. If you’re a government worker or you’re, you don’t really see yourself getting fired, you know, that’s step number one. Number two, if if you’re having issues with that cut costs, again You know, find ways to, you know, save money, redo insurance quotes, for example, you know, I’ve got, I’ve got folks for that and other things. Other people are then just trying to list out all their expenses and see what they can cut out. Um, number three monetize lines of credit. This is the same thing that the active guys are doing, you know those key locks you never know when they can be pulled away. harvested equity. And that’s the www dot mortgage news. daily.com had a great podcast on what exactly happened when the 10 year and the federate decoupled. Other notes here. What I’m seeing I did a survey with my investor group, and it’s a little sad but the non accredited investors are sort of dropping like flies, you know, they’re having to dip into savings. And they’re, they’re sort of gun shy but from the creative Investors side, the vast majority are kind of licking their chops at this point. We’re talking to a pretty experienced developer a couple weeks ago. And that guy was saying, Yeah, you know, Jimmy Carter years, you know, this is exactly what happened. I mean, he’s saying this is the textbook Black Swan event that we’re having right now. And that was when he made a ton of money when everybody was fearful. And that’s a Warren Buffett, quote, when people are fearful, that’s the time to be greedy. So we’re trying to get into better assets more B class a class just so we can distance ourselves from other groups, you know, who are trying to get in the game, you know, after getting those classy assets that do seem to have I’m in a couple classy deals and it’s just harder. The tenants are just they don’t have any resiliency you know, the the the can’t work at Burger King for a week and they can’t pay their rent. Second thing here I read this report The ITR report and it’s pretty unbiased In my opinion, they’re not trying to sell you on gold and trying to make you think that the world is going to end. And they’re still predicting big growth for 2021 and beyond. You know, guys like they come from bears like Peter Schiff, Chris martenson, they’re always trying to freak you out too. So you go and their newsletter subscriptions. That is their passive income, that’s their wealth strategy. If you guys want like to use that strategy, you guys can make your own podcasts and newsletters and sell it for people for 3999 or whatever it costs. And a lot of these guys, you know, everybody’s trying to predict the next recession, right? Like they want to put that that banner on their website. So what they do is they try and predict the, the last 12 of the last two recessions. I personally believe that it’s time to go back in but I’m gonna hold back on the fan till we see a light at the end of the tunnel on this crona virus and I’ll talk a little bit about, you know, my thoughts on you know, where as the Coronavirus is taking us, and will the quarantine, social distancing work? If you have to form entities try and do that sooner than later since a lot of the government offices and courthouse are deeming that non essential and be aware of the rent control and no eviction rules. And if you still own properties in the blue states, you know, why the heck are you doing that man like this is this should be a wake up call for you.

29:35
Economic Outlook moving forward, you know, we’re probably going to see, I mean, we already saw this knee jerk reaction by the Fed to go to zero percent. multiple rounds of stimulus going out to Americans $2 trillion already went out. And I think that’s the first round of stimulus. I think there’s going to be another one, especially if this corn is initial two to three quarantined doesn’t work. I mean, unofficially, Trump kind of put a line in the sand that he said everybody should be back out, you know, mingling come Easter, April 12. But he, he recently pushed that out to me. And I think every time that happens if that happens another time there’s probably going to be stimulus to on the works or cares to or whether they want to clever thing they want to come up with. At the end of the day, remember that this economy is doing very well before the Coronavirus and it is a true Black Swan event combined with the oil trade Black Swan event, you know currently 20 to $30 a barrel is crazy. If you’ve been following my journey, I’ve been selling my initial real property and transitioning into syndication deals lately for more purely passive investment strategy. One critical part of my portfolio is the American Home preservation fund, or what folks in we call HP for short, George Newberry. Once apartment owner operator and mentor to me is now sponsoring the podcast is private fun, which by the way also accepts non accredited investors cuts the middlemen out and allows you to invest directly with him to fight the mortgage crisis in America. join him by purchasing distressed mortgages while getting a double digit annual return paid monthly.

31:21
Find something else better out there. Well let me know

31:24
feel good knowing that you are helping families stay in their home after buying their underwater note at a huge discount invest as low as $100 by going to HP servicing comm slash investors and if you want the free burns on book please send me an email Lane at simple passive cash flow calm

31:45
Well, that’s a light bill.

31:53
So people want to know you know how is real estate doing these days and I’m just talking about rental real estate So I have this picture here of four chairs. I call this the great musical chairs game. So you can call each chair Class D, cb and a rentals. And there’s four people walking around right now. Well, maybe not yet. Maybe in the next week or week or month or so people will start to be displaced people who cannot afford where they are or being evicted or having to move out because they cannot work. Or they maybe they got laid off too, right? Maybe the guy making 200 $300,000 at their cushy, white collar, oil and gas job is fired. And you can’t even find a $60,000 job because it’s not in the oil gas field. Maybe they’re displace, but what you’re having is, you know, everybody’s dead. At some point, everyone’s gonna be dancing around and they’re gonna need a place to sit. But in the meantime, you’re gonna have things up in the air and sort of weightless and as landlords we need to survive that and that’s where nice cash reserves come into play and work. With tenants. Here’s a little table that I took from ITR. And this has a lot the past Black Swan events from the Russian crisis y2k 911 sovereign debt crisis of 2011 2015. Oil prices plummet. Number one, the oils went up to like, super high and then the recession started nine months prior to 2018 trade concerns. So what they said was, today’s Coronavirus is very similar to the 911 terrorist attacks attacked and where it was extremely sudden. The difference is that with all these type of Black Swan events, it never happened where the economy was sort of shut down. Like you weren’t had to stay at home. There’s never been something like that. So we don’t really have really good data but in a way Once we get the go out and mingle and hang out with your friends again order, we should go back there should be some pent pent up demand. And we can emotional we can. I think what you’re going to see is people are going to be it’s going to be night and day. It’s not going to be like 911 happens and people think that it’s a different world that we’re living in. Commercial Property executive reports that the Coronavirus will hit the hotel beats the hardest, and I’m just going you know, we’re all picking on the travel and hotel industry here. These guys are getting beat up really bad. So here’s a little table that I made for the steps to get to a point where the commercial properties and real estate property start to go down. So right now the Black Swan event which is the Coronavirus has happened fear has definitely set in which makes the stock market go down 10 to 20%. business income is decreasing, right i mean last month Things haven’t been open. And companies have started to cut jobs. I think that is very evident. And you’re seeing some very scary numbers from unemployment numbers coming in. We don’t know how much of that is just people, you know, thinking pent up demand or people thinking that there’s free handouts there because they see all on the news, the cares act, and they think they want to get theirs. But right now we’re at the stage of, you know, we don’t know if tenants can’t pay rent. And hopefully, you know, we don’t get to the very end of this, sort of like a, you have to kind of fill up the buckets to get there. The next thing that’s the domino ready to fall as the market vacancies go up, as people start to move around, and then decrease market rents. But remember, before we got into this, there was a housing shortage initially. So going back to the analogy of the great musical chair game, there’s four people and three chairs still. So we’ll see what happens and of course the last two dominoes have lower operating income, which means less income, which will then impact higher cap rates, which equates the lower property values.

36:12
Some good news.

36:14
The government is definitely stepping in here. unemployment benefits are for tenants to get to hopefully pay their rent. It’s tax time for most of our tenants who pay their taxes in April and a lot of them were getting a tax refund. I tell you guys, you don’t really want a tax refund because you gave the government a interest free loan, but that’s not how our tenants thing. Thus far red states have not been really restricting evictions. However courts are closing or limited. And we’re starting to see the government programs come and bail us out with everybody’s getting I guess the 1200 dollar check in deferment options and just last weekend, that was more 2829 Fannie and Freddie finally came up with the ferment options for our bigger deals on possible 90 day deferments on our mortgage payments, but the deal is we just can’t evict people. So dissect in the cares act here and we’re going to have a webinar on April 15. Probably the only webinar you’ll ever see on April 15, from a CPA, because normally it’s tax day, but we’re going to be talking about breaking down all these SBA loans the Care Act, what it means for us. And so you guys aren’t just hearing my interpretation or what I’m talking to my other people, you guys can hear it straight from a CPA tax attorney. So one of the big things that I’m reading is you can take $100,000 from withdrawal from your retirement. So a lot of you guys that I have calls with, you might have $500,000 a million dollars in your 401k or IRA. And the whole, most most people’s strategy is to take that out and start investing it, but you’re gonna have to turn it into income and pay. it’ll, it’ll make your adjusted gross income go up temporary that one year as you take it out. Now with the carousel, you can take up to $100,000 out of there penalty free. So gotta pay your taxes. But there’s some deferment on the taxes that you pay on that. I think it’s like three or six years. I think I got a slide in here later on that cash checks going out to everybody. Well, that is if you are in a certain income level. This chart that I found here is the best way of trying to calculate how much you’re able to get essentially for single filers 1200 dollars is going out. Married, married filing jointly, you’re going into double that. And then for each kid you essentially attack on 500 bucks. There’s a phase out after 70 $575,000 up to $100,000 for single filers and for couples. The phase out occurs from 150,000 and pretty quickly up to a little over $200,000. Some changes FMLA with additional leave some of your employers have given people extra week of vacation or or to stay at home. Well, it’s not because of them. It’s because the government’s giving that to give to you. Again, SBA loans, it confuses you like it confuses me. I mean, I’m just probably gonna pay a consultant to get all that stuff done for me and just pay him. Let me know if you guys are interested in that by emailing me. credits for retaining employees so they want you to not fire your Your employees, so there’s credits for that. And then this one was an interesting one that I don’t quite understand myself. It’s a qualified improvement property. So it provides 100% bonus depreciation for costs associated with the interior improvement of non residential property by changing the tax life from 39 years to 15 years. And here’s the important thing made retroactive for improvements after September 27 2017. So you can go back and possibly change or amend your tax returns and recover some some money there. And I know a lot of CPAs are probably just going to ignore this and hope their clients don’t ask them to do that because it’s probably not worth the fight. refiling fee that they charge their clients. And, you know, but that’s what uh, that’s, that’s what a lazy CPA does, right. And that’s why they stub a jlb breaking down the $2 trillion. Where did it all go on 250 billion went to unemployment, 300 billion went to direct payments. Those are the 1200 dollar checks to Americans 500 billion went to large businesses.

41:15
I don’t know if the the I heard there were airline bailouts included in there. I don’t, I’m guessing that that is included in that 500 billion. But for small businesses, the SBA loans that we’re talking about and the grants 300 billion is there. To cover payments for rent, mortgage, utilities and payroll, these even loans have been converted into grants at the end of the year, if used for intended purposes. So, you know, I think everybody should be able to get $10,000 if they do their application, right. So yeah, let me know if you guys want to get on, get that free money up for grabs, but once it’s gone, it’s gone. That’s how those grants work in the public sector under 50 billion is going to state And a few hundred billion dollars are going to some hospitals and some miscellaneous stuff. But, you know, like I said, when I quit the last slide, qualified improvement property, were you able to go back a couple years? You know, that’s just just as an example of you know exactly what this headline says in the New York Times The Bonanza for rich real estate investors tucked into the stimulus plan. The world, the United States needed a lot of help, you know, how are people when they can’t work at Burger King or can’t go work as a hotel cleaner at a casino? What happens while they need these checks, but in this $2 trillion stimulus package, a whole bunch of stuff got put in for real estate investors. And here’s how I think of it. You know, when you’re a kid and your parents, hopefully you had these good childhood memories, sorry, if you didn’t, but You know, if your parents said we can go by you and Nintendo and you’re at the checkout line, you want to throw in some extra game or two, or some gum or candy, you know, that’s essentially what’s happening here. I think the cares to is happening soon. So it might be extend that analogy might be throwing in some gift cards in there too.

43:24
We talked about the qualifying improvement property.

43:28
net operating losses can be carried back five years and excess business losses or temporary acts suspended. And the again the waiver of the 10% early withdrawal penalty for retirement accounts. And this kind of doesn’t really mean anything. It’s so negligible, but you can have a $300 above the line deduction on charitable donations. So take a break from the Coronavirus a little bit and the current crisis. I read this article from housing wire the rise of remote real estate investors. It’s a map it’s a heat map of where out of state buyers are coming from which are pretty much the California west coast of California. It’s heavy in Nevada for some reason. And where our out of state buyers are buying where’s the money, where the where the investors investing in a lot of it in?

44:23
Only 6% of it is going to California.

44:28
But most of the states, about 20 to 30% of it is, you know, coming not from originating from the state that pulled an article from multi housing news, which is the public housing is part of the housing crisis. The same public housing authorities across the country are struggling and federal programs aren’t always the answer. So what they’re talking about are sort of the class B developments that are Pretty quickly become classy housing projects like the Red Hook houses in Brooklyn, New York or the Trump village in New York. So, I put this in here because I think these public housing developments are the only killer to those investing in, you know, the value based Class C and B housing, on the workforce housing. And from this article, it’s saying that the, these government programs aren’t really working to have these types of housing. So what will likely happen is it’ll make more sense for the government to infuse capital into better loans, Fannie Mae Freddie Mac programs or HUD, HUD programs for syndicators investors to utilize. Here is a chart from costar probably one of the best sources of commercial real estate data, what they’re showing here Is the vacancy rate tracking? And this is what their forecast is based on the Coronavirus. And this is the what’s what I like how these guys put together is they they’ll put together a forecast of what they think is going to happen. And then what is severe downside. So I put the severe downside one up on the screen and this is basically the doom and gloom gloom. But you see how, you know middle of 2020 where we’re at now, they can see will sort of peak it’ll jump up from 6.5% up to 8% and then slowly go down after 2022. You’ll see how the net deliveries will come down, get cooled off, how absorption which is the inverse of vacancy will. We’ll go down later on the year but it’s Pick it right up back up in 2021. Green Street advisors released some estimates on how some reads are doing and I’m not a big fan of reads because read cert, you know, just essentially like mutual funds. And they suppose the whole real estate but there’s just a lot of, you know bloat in those funds, but just in relative, you know, relative to each other senior housing is getting killed. And so student housing, I think we all understand the reasons why they’re shopping. And then comes the apartments, single family homes and self storage, and the mobile home parks. other good things that I personally am happy about, about this, the outcome out of our cultural changing COVID-19 experience is maybe we will finally have less meetings. You know, we see all how effective zoom meetings are and that’s the platform that I’m using today. Maybe people that work with start to realize you don’t need to have all these freaking meetings anymore. Number two, everyone’s spending a little bit more time with family. There’s less sports, there’s no ESPN, there’s less distractions and more time to exercise. And later on in the month, we’ll have a do a workshop for who remembers you guys can join it simple passive cash flow calm slash club. There’ll be a live webinar, we’ll be going over the COVID-19 economic survival guide. You guys can get access to that right now. It’s simple passive cash flow calm slash COVID-19. However, it’s a work in progress at this point. So if you guys have any, any questions, feel free to type it into the question answer box, but I’m just going to give a little update on what I’ve been up to personally. So first category is growth. I’m trying to I urge everybody to do this guard your mind There’s a lot of BS out there on social media you know just a lot of negativity This is the analogy I like to use we’re in this big traffic jam nobody’s going anywhere. You know the big trucks, the small trucks, the nice luxury cars we’re all stuck in this together. I think everybody needs to live with a little bit more low Han and be a little bit more compassionate.

49:26
And yeah, so I mean if you guys are in the in the week club, I just announced that I was going to let you guys try out the ecourse for free while you guys are stuck at home. Sony available for a little bit little time on while you guys are stuck at home but I just try to find ways to you know give back to the simple passive cash flow community and I don’t know I mean, I try to do what I can to keep, you know, buying my takeout food and you know, keep paying my bills and keep paying my service. provider’s, you know, do it do what I can to keep them in business because it’s the right thing to do because I’m fortunate enough to not have to really worry about you know, having to go to a job that is now stopped. See, and also using the time to kind of protect my body and exercise. Luckily, I have a squat rack and pull up bar at home. But I know a lot of people are just the only thing they can do is walk around or or run that’s all they have. Things are difficult.

50:29
And things are changing, but that is to be expected.

50:33
So if you guys want to access that, go to simple passive cash flow calm slash ecourse. The coupon code is kokua kay Oh, you owe it scratch that k or k u A. That’s k o k ua. And you guys can get that free trial there. Some other things of significance that I’m working on. Um, you know, I mean, it’s, I think those of you guys who own Real Estate would agree that at this time where everybody is getting killed out in the stock market, you know, that’s why workforce works. Everybody needs the place to live. And there’s still a housing shortage, and I have no stock holdings. And I don’t worry really what the stock market is doing every day. I don’t care. I can focus on the one thing that I do best, which is sourcing deals. And as much as I think that the vanguard Energy Fund is something to be bought right now I try to I’m just sort of a spectator. I don’t really want to spend my, my mental bandwidth to kind of watch that thing or put money into it. That might be different for you guys, but that’s just me personally. We all need a little uncertainty in our life and we’re definitely getting it now. I’m just my son my short comments in the Coronavirus because I think you see a whole bunch of opinions out there, especially on social media by non doctors. Oh, you know, we don’t have any answers yet. Just guidance and direction here. So the question is Will a 14 day social isolation solution work or 28 day or 48 day we all understand this initiative of flattening the curve and the part of it is just so we don’t tax our healthcare system capacity. But is this just prolonging the inevitable? We can watch China Italy for examples, but you know, who trust anything that comes out of China, they said they they beat this thing, but who the heck knows. And Italy is not the same like America. Japan’s another example, but you know, their society tends to follow directions a lot better than the United States and be a little more orderly so it’s very differently. Um, we’re still waiting on the April collection. See how that’s coming in more updates on that next month, and how we are reacting to what’s going on, we’ll be sure to report. But, you know, most of the deals that we’re in, we’re seeing at 95% occupancy with adequate cash reserves. But we’re suspending distributions because we don’t know how things are going to play out these next couple months at least. At this point, with the whole Coronavirus situation, we’d have no light at the end of the tunnel. We haven’t seen the cases taper off. Some things of certainty here. So we pulled the hooey investor group, most of which are accredited investors who at least took the survey of 100 or so people I would say at least 60%. So the funny thing about this, these surveys I do with you guys is like you guys are a bunch of like world changers and independent thinkers that Can I give you guys the option to type in your own answer? And I get like a plethora of like, non categorize questions that definitely give me a little humor throughout the day of what you guys come up with but it’s hard to get really good solid data but I’m going to just assume here that it like at least two thirds of you guys believe that this is a black swan event. And you guys are going to be buying into this Kip. Those of you who don’t say about a bunch of you guys 7.7% are looking to move stocks into mutual funds or at least 7.7% I’d probably say about 10 to 20% of you guys are looking into this based on conversations I’ve had last couple weeks and if we haven’t had a chance to talk you know, let’s let’s connection and email plain and simple passive cash flow and let’s kind of connect them this time of social disconnection. stain most of these guys And I put myself in this category stay put for a couple months let’s just see a light at the end of the tunnel before we make any moves.

55:07
Um, the last thing that we all need is love and connection. And this Thursday we are doing a zoom webinar where a bunch of us are going to be doing 100 burpees so if you would like to join that please shoot me an email and I’ll shoot you the invite out to that. But yeah, keep your keep your mind right keep your body in shape is a part of this. Here are the new podcasts and articles you guys have any questions on this? type it into the chat box now we can kind of dissect any of these. But we had I have new YouTube videos on how to fill out your new w two form. Should you extend your tax returns? Can you get a home if you’re self employed, how many commercial loans count towards your Fannie Mae loan limit? How to pick the right coach for you. Saving taxes all about the pure EQ RP we had david on the podcast this week if you guys want more information about the GRP go to simple passive cash flow calm slash q RP get the free book there. How much should downpayment should you do on an investment rental property the and we had a call which is probably a little bit obsolete now but the the past COVID-19 investor action plan call that went out to who he investors and then the this COVID-19 green sheet that we’re doing today and then we are going to be doing a webinar on April 15. Some of the barriers and resistance that I faced this month is just staying away from the negativity on sometimes I find myself getting into that. But I did spend some money I bought some doodads here. On the on the one on the right side here the bed with the multiple screens that you never get out of bed with the junk food of the nightstand is kind of a joke. I didn’t buy that. But I just thought that was kind of cool. But I did buy that exercise bike that Echelon, because I need a my cardio sucks. And hopefully, that will help me in my endeavors and I’m stuck at home anyway. So the interesting about these bikes is like it’s on back order to me, because everybody is stuck at home and there’s a huge demand for him right now. Other lessons learned I read the go giver book, and that this is the book that we’re going to be talking about in our next book club on April 25. If you guys want to join our free online book club, go to simple passive cash flow calm slash lean hack, but it’s all about this book is all about giving out to others without really feeling any, any kind of necessity for anything coming back with a quid pro quo thing. I mean this maybe this is where the inspiration of just letting people on trial the course for free came about on the ecourse I think I sell it for like 800 or 900 bucks. At first I have to kind of like maybe I should not do this because then people won’t buy it later but I was like asked for it you know people are stuck at home. Times are tough we don’t need to make life harder for people. So enjoy that little perk while that lasts the rest of this month. passive investor accelerator mastermind is taking new applicants go to simple passive cash flow comm slash journey. We have over 50 members now we do a bi weekly conference call when we talk about this these things interactively. The last meeting we did this cool thing where we split everybody up in groups of four and that way the numbers got to really get to know each other a little bit better and work on an individual problem. And they went kind of round robin so we had like four or five different breakout rooms, each with four numbers and people thought that was pretty cool, but we do that from time to time and then we bring in guests. And it’s you know, it’s more than deal vetting, investing, right. You know, somebody who’s looking at a deal, we’ll take a look at it. You know, more than that we share the best practice for tax legal, infinite banking and legacy creation with a mostly accredited group. Some things that just for fun, it’s just to remind you guys that you know, although we’re stuck at home and maybe our mutual funds, portfolios tanked and we don’t know if our tenants are going to pay rent come in this first week of April. And just be thankful that there’s no bombs going off over our head. And here’s the legal disclaimer not giving any tax legal consult your own personal advisor there. And if there’s no questions in the question answer box. We will see you guys next time. Thanks for joining.

59:57
This website offers very general information concerning In real estate for investment purposes every investor situation is unique. Always seek the services of licensed third party appraisers inspectors to verify the value and condition of any property you intend to purchase. Use the services of professional title and escrow companies and licensed tax investment and or legal advisor before relying on any information contained here and information is not guaranteed as an every investment there is risk. The content found here is just my opinion and things change and I reserve the right to change my mind. Above all else, do your own analysis and think for yourself because in the end, you’re the only person who is going to look out for your best interests.

 

#11 – 2020.03 – The SPC Greensheet

Dear investor,

I had my head down in a couple of deals and especially during the HUI3 weekend (mastermind in Hawaii) which turned out to be amazing!!!

When I realized it the month of February was over and we were in the midst of the quickest 10% downward correction in the stock market ever. Supposedly due to the Coronavirus. I say supposedly because you can never really tell what is the reason for movements in stocks but this time it seems like it has really gotten people up in arms.

Links to the PDF slide-deck.

Video format of this Month’s investor letter:

  1. What is the Next Step in Asset Protection After LLCs
  2. Top Things Ignorant Investors Do
  3. Top Markets to Invest in 2020
  4. Stop Listening to Real Estate Gurus
  5. Mental Mistakes of Investors w Marco Santarelli
  6. How the Rich Use Land Conservation Easements for Tax Deductions
  7. What Interest Rate to Expect from Investing in Private Money Lending
  8. Don’t Invest in Short Term Rentals Until You Understand This
  9. Best Marketing Platform for Short Term Rentals
  10. How to Position Your Short-Term Rental
  11. How Much Money You Should Have to Do Private Money Lending
  12. How Politics and Rent Control Affect Where You Should Invest
  13. Big Changes to Your Retirement Account in 2020
  14. How the Secure Act Screwed over millions?
  15. Do I Need Asset Protection on my Retirement Accounts?
  16. Is it Safe to Transfer Money to Overseas Trusts?

  1. It took stocks only six days to fall into correction, the fastest drop in history – CNBC – “The S&P 500′s swift drop marked the quickest 10% decline from an all-time high in the index’s history. The speed of the decline over the past week even beats the Black Monday plunge in October 1987
  2.  Why the Coronavirus inverted the Yield Curve – Pensford – My initial thought was that the market is overreacting to the coronavirus news.  “Classic flight-to-safety-knee-jerk-overreaction, rates will rebound if we can get a grip on containment.But the traders I spoke with were legitimately concerned about the long-lasting effect.  Sure, the 35bps drop in the last few weeks was re-positioning to avoid getting steamrolled in the event the news got much worse.But longer term, the virus has the potential to pull the global economy into a recession.”  
  3. Specialty Grocer Earth Fare to Close All Stores and Liquidate Inventory, Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy – REBusiness – “Most of Earth Fare’s locations are near a Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, Sprouts and/or a Fresh Market,” says Beitz, whose firm operates an online platform called Planned Grocery. The app maps the real estate locations of all grocery stores in the planning, development and operating phases.
  4. Industrial Outlook for 2020-2021 Remains Strong – CPE – “Dallas is in growth mode due to many factors, such as strong population growth, a friendly business environment, low operating cost compared to other gateway markets and limited regional competitors,” local industrial broker Nathan Orbin, Cushman & Wakefield executive managing director. Net Lease
  5. Investors Still Value Dollar Stores – CPE – “Dollar General has announced 1,000 new stores in 2020, while Dollar Tree continues to focus on renovating hundreds of Family Dollar stores and growing in strategic markets.Currently, the average cap rate for dollar stores with 10 or more years of lease term remaining, that have been on the market 90 days or less is 6.16 percent. Logically, many of these current offerings are newly built stores, as they offer the majority of longer lease terms.”
  6. Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Low – Forbes – decrease was largely due to investor uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus, as well as trade-related and geopolitical concerns. mortgage rates
  7. Cleveland Multifamily Report – Winter 2020 – Boosted by the ongoing revival of the city core, the metro’s rental market wrapped up 2019 on a positive note. – CPE – “Most of the new development targets downtown Cleveland; the area ranks as the largest jobs hub in Ohio and is expected to see a population”
  8. Sherwin-Williams to Develop World Headquarters, R&D Center in Metro Cleveland for $600M – RE Business – The transition to the new facilities won’t occur until 2023 at the earliest, the company says. Sherwin-Williams previously launched a nationwide search for its new headquarters location before deciding to stay in Ohio, where it has been based since it was founded in 1866.
  9. MBA Forecasts U.S. Economy to Slow in 2020 as Job Market Weakens – RE Business – His forecast calls for U.S. GDP growth of 1.2 percent in 2020, down from 2.2 percent in 2019, and for job growth to dip from a monthly average of 175,000 last year to 150,000 this year. The unemployment rate, which currently stands at 3.6 percent and is near a 50-year low, is expected to reach 3.9 percent by year’s end.
  10. Newmark Knight Frank MFH Capital Market Report 4Q19 – 
  11. Arbor – Q4 2019 Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report 
  12. Trump’s 2021 budget proposal – Cut $5.6 billion from Department of Education funding—that’s a 7.8% decrease with changes to the ways we take out and pay back loans for higher education expenses. Positives:Eliminating subsidized Stafford Loans, which don’t accrue interest while you’re enrolled, Eliminating the Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant, which typically goes to independent students or those whose families make less than $30,000 per year, Cutting $630 million of funding to the Federal Work Study Program, Reducing income-driven loan repayment programs to one option. Instead of paying 10% of your income, you’d pay 12.5%. Payment plans would last 15 years instead of 20, with the remainder forgiven, but graduate students would have to make payments for 30 years under income-driven repayment, Eliminating the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. Positives:  Reinstating federal Pell Grant eligibility for short-term education programs and for some currently incarcerated students who are being released within five years, Increasing career and technical education funding by $900 million, Putting caps on graduate and parent loans with annual and lifetime limits. Parent PLUS loans for undergrads would be limited to $26,500. Graduate students would be capped at $50,000 annually and $100,000 total.
  13. The U.S. is experiencing its longest economic expansion on record, besting the period from 1991 to 2001. (CNBC
  14. The decade-long U.S. economic expansion has generated 20 million jobs. (New York Times
  15. 3.4% year-over-year wage growth is the strongest in more than a decade. (MarketWatch
  16. January 2020 had record job growth in the private sector: 291,000 new jobs, the largest monthly gain since March 2015. (Yahoo Finance
  17. The U.S. hit the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years in 2019. (Whitehouse.gov
  18. 2020’s Property Taxes by State – WalletHub – 
  19. Personal savings: A look at how Americans are saving – Deloitte – While the personal savings rate has been trending upward, average savings—calculated using the Consumer Expenditure Survey—has been on a broad declining trend since 2010–2012 for consumers across income levels and for key working-age groups.

 

Starting with a coach to keep me accountable and compress “lying to myself time”

A little work trying to work with someone at Donorschoose.com

Working with coach to find a bigger way to find an impact?

 

Don’t have any bigger plans for 2020? Any ideas?

 

Do HUI3 every year. Maybe MLK weekend 2021.

 

 

After leaving the day job I am realizing that there is (was always) just me as the barrier. We all get the same amount of hours a say to create something more meaningful. Its unfortunate at most people have to spend at least 40 hours a week feeding the time clock.

No exceptions

 

 

Complete #LaneHack list

Passive Investor Accelerator & Mastermind

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-27 modules of content in a closed membership site
-Bi-weekly Zoom Video calls (25+ on-demand recordings a year plus all library of past calls)
-Now with a membership coordinator check-in’s to help facilitate what you are doing and connect you with the right people in the group (if you are shy)

Learn more and apply – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/Journey

If can do me a favor… If you get a chance people review leave a review for the podcast on iTunes (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/simple-passive-cashflow/id1118795347) and email simplepassivecashflow.com to a friend.

 

 

 

Transcript:

0:00
Hello everybody is March 2020 and this is the monthly market update that I try and do every month for you guys a compiled ation of different news articles that I’ve come across this past month you guys can get all the show notes to this at simple passive cash flow calm slash green 11 podcast listeners can get access to the recording on the YouTube channel or go to simple passive cash flow comm slash investor letter if you’re checking this out later and you want to get all the past monthly updates there you haven’t heard of me before My name is Lane Kawaoka x engineer I have the simple passive cash flow podcasts on YouTube Spotify, iTunes I Heart Radio. This is a story about a dude named Lane he moved to the mainland and bought one place to stay and then one day he went try to rent them out. And then he became one really but still may.

0:59
So first headline here. And I think a lot of us have been on this roller coaster ride the past. That’s the past week I took this article a few days ago, it took stocks only six days to fall into correction, the fastest drop in history, though this was back on February 27. And it was the quickest 10% decline all time. And I believe it’s gone up a couple times and down once I mean, today, it went up 1000 points, just craziness. If you ask me, it’s all fake money, I don’t have any stocks. My stuff is all in things that I feel like I can control and cash flow, whether the stock goes up 5% or down percent, or 6% or 2%. The value is what it cash flows every month, but it’s been pretty cool watching this, the Fed dropped the rate by half a percent point you could probably say that’s partially due to the corona virus that’s out. I don’t really buy into the whole media thing. It’s not as debilitating as the flu is I believe that mortality rates on it’s like 2%, but I’m not a medical person, nor do I know what’s really happening out there, but as they know anything, the media typically throws it out of proportion. A little bit of hindsight on coronavirus. I have a couple charts in here showing what the SARS did a while ago. That was way back when in 2003. So pence furred said that the coronavirus inverted the yield curve and again my initial thought was that the market was overreacting to the corona virus news classic fight to safety knee jerk reaction quote here the traders I spoke to were legitimately concerned about the long lasting effect. Sure the 35 bps drop in the last few weeks was repositioning to avoid getting steamrolled in the event that news got much worse. And of course, this was only about a week or two weeks ago, but in the long term, the virus has the potential to pull the global economy into recession, just like any other black swan event that we’ve been talking about for the past few years China trade war Iran you name it the euro. So there’s a couple of charts here showing the decline of when SARS came into the picture with these charts are showing is that the SARS actually made an uptick after that it was short lived charts of SARS impact on the stock market was material but short lift so if history will repeat itself perhaps we’re going to look for a little bit of a bull market on the heels of this coronavirus endemic supposedly moving on specialty grocer Earth fair to close all stores and liquidate inventory files for chapter 11 bankruptcy. This is a health food store out on the east side of the country. This one’s showing one in North Carolina the most of their locations are near Whole Foods Trader Joe’s sprouts are fresh marks. So they’re kind of just getting gobbled up by their competition, but it’s showing how a lot of these other competition is pretty fierce out there even with something that’s traditionally been thought of as an emerging market which is healthy supermarkets. CPE says industry outlook for 2020 to 2021 remains strong Dallas is in growth mode due to many factors such as a strong population growth, a friendly business environment, low operating costs compared to other gateway markets and limited regional competitors. And I think if you’ve been listening and hearing to the market, you know, this is sort of Captain Obvious news. Dallas is obviously one of the frontrunners in terms of growth, but you dig a little bit deeper and if you’re actually trying to find deals there, it’s probably banging your head against the wall or pulling your hair out whatever you do to cope with things you know, everybody knows about it, right? So as an investor, you want to go where the action is at yet you want to stay away from where all the frenzy is, too. So the interest rates have been coming down. As we all know, Forbes is saying the mortgage rates near three year low decrease was largely due to investor uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus as well as trade related and geopolitical concerns. As I said earlier, the Fed dropped The interest rate half a percent, which is pretty big movement, normally they’d like to move it in terms of quarter points. And I think when everybody hears the bad news, they automatically think that they should probably look at refinancing their mortgage. But that’s not always necessarily true. The feds rate it sort of is correlated with the Treasury, but it’s not always but this time when they did drop it half a point, it did drop a treasury, so that impacts the mortgage rates and I locked in a big deal today with him closing so I think we got kind of lucky there. We got like a 3.5% on a commercial loan to pretty awesome, but I think people get a little bit too excited. I mean, 3.5% 3.754% I mean, who really cares? I mean, it’s it really doesn’t make too much of a difference when you run the numbers and you run out of deal five, six years, but it sure helps. Nice. We get lucky.

5:53
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6:21
Check out my article about passive

6:22
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7:23
Well, that’s a like a report from CPE talking about cleaving here cleaving multifamily report boosted the ongoing revival of the city core. So this is an example of like, you have to look at it from a submarket viewpoint, I think a lot of people will look at places like Birmingham or Cleveland. And you know, one of the first things you should look at is the population growth or where’s the population going? And that’s one way of doing it, but you really got to look at it a little bit deeper, and you got to look at on a sub market. So in Cleveland, what’s happening is that the downtown area is getting most of the new development whereas the suburbs are kind I’m struggling a little bit. So CPE says here most of the new development targets downtown Cleveland, the area ranks as the largest job hubs in Ohio and is expected to see a population growth. And I followed that up with another Sherwin Williams to develop world headquarters in Cleveland. The transition to the new facilities won’t occur until 2023 at the earliest, and they previously launched a nationwide search for their new headquarters before deciding to stay right at home in Ohio, where it’s been based since 1866 news from Las Vegas we have several articles about some of the older hotels when I mean older Oh, what was it like Carnival one, the ones that are maybe a decade or two old but they’re finally going to make a what I would call Class A hotel. And the reason why I look at this stuff is you know, just I’m not interested in hotel investing, but it’s interesting to see another asset class how they cycle through assets and how and when I say it gets older, some other things Group buys it maybe it does a little bit value add and then they take it down and then these new properties come up so dream Hotel Group is opening a 450 room luxury hotel on the Las Vegas Strip This is dubbed dream Las Vegas the project is looking to open in 2023 course are gonna have a rooftop pool deck bar lounge, two restaurants, two additional bars, gaming floor, everything that you would probably want in a level hotel. You guys are probably asking where is it? It’s going to be located across the street from the Mandalay Bay Resort and will be one of the first hotels seen from the iconic Las Vegas site property will be situated two blocks away from the new Allegiant stadium the future home of the Las Vegas Raiders, maybe Tom Brady will go there. Who knows. So already business reports that NBA forecast the US economy to slow in 2020 as job market weakens, and I always just put these articles in here, you know, these are all commentary, and you’re just making wild guesses in the sky. And I like to try and put both good articles and bad articles. But they have a point sometimes. And sometimes these predictions never happen. But again, the media is trying to sell news articles. So for those of you guys who are looking on the screen, we are showing the trend from 2018 1920 and prediction 2021 2022 of GDP growth, which is dipping this year in 2020, which should come right back up in 2021 and 2022. Inflation is holding pretty steady at 1.8 to 2.2 2.4%. Across the five years unemployment again pretty steady at just under 4% Feds funds rate it’s expected to dip down this year but come back up to where it was in 2018. And the 10 year Treasury and the 30 year mortgage rates are sort of fix. They kind of follow the Fed funds rate they’re calling the 30 year mortgage to be 3.7% this year. And go up to 3.8% next year and then up to 4.1% 2022. And this is pretty consistent with what I’m thinking I think 2020 will be a little bit of a weakness or take a breath year pretty sure Trump is going to win whether you like it or not, I don’t care personally, and then we might be in for another few years of a nice Bull Run after this is kind of my prediction took this excerpt from the Newmark Knight Frank multi family housing capital report from their 2019 fourth quarter report. Usually these things are just a bunch of words and blah, blah, blah, blah. So I’ll go over the highlights here are the sales volume, they reported that investors gravitated towards markets with a strong combination of yield and growth prospects. Yes, not too insightful. There’s kind of like obvious right in terms of cap rates, national multifamily cap rates compressed eight basis points year over year, which is nothing although cap rates increased six basis points year over year in major markets a surge of investment activity in non major markets cause yields to fall 12 basis points the rest I’m not going to read because it’s not doesn’t seem like too much of a news you guys can check this out on the YouTube channel if you guys are so inclined to read into it Arbor who is a direct lender and we use arberg for our deals, you can go through any broker, but those brokers typically don’t add any value and it just makes more sense to go straight to the source which is our bro who deals the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac large commercial paper. So in their 2019 fourth quarter small multifamily investment trends report which are smaller multifamily apartments, I probably say and like the 20 to 100 unit ban. They’re saying that according to The Wall Street Journal’s October economic forecasting survey, only about 14% of economists expect the US to enter into recession in 2020. Compare that to when they tested in October 2019 when the share was roughly 48% sense. So what they’re saying here is the economists are sort of backpedaling, and the 48% of them call the 2019 recession. And when it didn’t happen, no, only 14% of them are calling it for 2020. And they put this on a graph what the survey was in 2019 and 2020, which, again, is horrible data, right? It’s just a survey Who the heck knows, right? But it gets these people are a little bit more insightful, I guess. But it’s still just opinion. But I think what you’re just seeing is everybody wants to look like the smartest guy and cause a recession. But when it doesn’t happen in the year just backs up to the next year. Now it’s in the next year. Oh, it’s in the next year. So I think that’s what you’re seeing in this article. Again, not too much news. But sometimes I’ll put some of these bad news articles in here just to pointed out again from arbour in that same report, they are graphing the spread between small multifamily cap rates and the 10 year Treasury yields through fourth quarter 2019. And this is why we do it folks. This is why we invest and use leverage because as investors, you’re making the difference between the spread between the cap rate and the your interest rate, which is basically the 10 year Treasury. So if you look back from 2009 to now it’s there’s always been about 300 to 500 points spread, it’s gone up a little bit, it’s gone down, but it stays pretty consistent. And I think this is one of those absolute truths in the world where this is the way the world works. And this is why I’m not too concerned where interest rates go, because if interest rates go up likely so well, the cap rates again, as an investor, I make my money off of a spread, which is typically a consistent 500 to 300 points spread, and then I apply leverage on that, too. If you’re thinking four to one, you multiply this by four. So I’m sure all of you have been keeping up with the proposed budgets from Mr. Trump, but if not, I took a little excerpt on the proposed budget which you can get online at OMB I don’t know why you would would unless you don’t have a day job and you don’t have anything better to do. But he is proposing a 5.6 billion cut from the department of education funding. What does that mean? That’s a 7.8% decrease. So I’ll go over the negatives and some of the positives here the negatives are eliminating subsidized Stafford loans. And those are the ones that don’t accrue interest while you’re enrolled. They’re going to eliminate this supplemental Education Opportunity Grant, which typically goes to independent students or families who make less than 30 grand a year, they’re cutting the 630 million of funding to the federal work study program, reducing income driven loan repayment programs to one option instead of paying 10% of your income you’d pay 12.5% payment plans would last 15 years instead of 20 with the remainder forgiven, but grad students would have to make payments for 30 years under income driven repayment and they’re eliminating the public service loan forgiveness program. Some of the positives are there reinstating the Federal Pell Grant eligibility for short term education programs. And for some currently incarcerated students who are being released within five years increasing career and technical education funding by 900 million in putting caps and graduate and parent loans with annual and lifetime limits Parent PLUS loans for undergrads will be limited to 26,500. graduate students would be capped at $50,000 annually and $100,000 total who knows how this legit plan will go and be changed. But that is the way that Trump’s kind of got his education budget lined up, should he get reelected wallet hub. These guys are really good at making these cool color graphs comparing state to state but this is actually very misleading. So what they did here is they took the 2020s properties taxes by state and I guess it’s kind of good because they have it a sort of an interactive table where you can click on the effective tax. Real estate tax rate here and number one lowest is Hawaii at 0.27%. Number two is Alabama at point four 2% effective tax rate on the real estate you know, you gotta use your brain here because obviously Hawaii’s average medium price is probably about three or four times that of Alabama. So you have to really look at what is the annual taxes on a median home that next column over the annual taxes on a $200,000 home. To me that column is meaningless because that’s a mansion in Alabama. And you frankly can’t find a 300 square foot house in Hawaii for that much state median home value, as you can see there $130,000 in Alabama to $587,000 in Hawaii, but for those of you in Hawaii, that’s the price of Paradise live where you want invest where the numbers make sense. I actually like the fourth column here annual taxes on home price at state medium value. I think that’s where you’re starting to see where the true month numbers are being shown because a lot of times like our Facebook group for example, someone will chime in and say well you know, Alabama has low taxes right and here the effective tax rate is the number two lowest in the country but you got to go on the based on the value so like another one is a famous one is like Chicago, Chicago has really high taxes and sort of high values so that can really skew your numbers. Again, I would just recommend if you’re looking at rental properties, just put into the analyzer and see how the numbers turn out and compare that number at the bottom of the spreadsheet which is anticipated cash flow on your Performa we kind of had a lot of bad news. I wanted to put in the side with some good news. And these are all five headlines of Hey, look on the brighter side guys, it’s not all doom and gloom. First one here by CNBC. The US is experiencing the longest economic expansion on record best seen the period from 1991 to 2001. Some guys probably like Whoa, what’s gonna end soon? Well, you should enjoy the good times right now. New York Times says the decade long us expansion has generated At 20 million jobs market watch says 3.4%. year over year, wage growth is the strongest in more than a decade. Yahoo Finance says January 2020 had a record job growth in the private sector largest monthly gains since March 2015. And the Whitehouse. gov was always trying to toot their horn does the US hit the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years in 2009. Of course, there’s a lot of questions whether how do you take the unemployment rate? Is it legit, but right now things are pretty good. I mean, people are working and I haven’t really seen any indicators saying that larger companies are laying people off decreasing their orders. And in my mastermind, I’m in somebody predicted the 2008 meltdown in there and that person was like a big time builder. And they were saying that they knew it was coming down when the foot traffic that we’re checking out those new bills just weren’t there. The demand just dried up and that was when they knew was the end and that’s why it’s been 25 thousand dollars to go to groups like that because they are closer to the action. And hopefully I can react better than the average bear out there by having that information. And I don’t want to just sit on the sidelines. I know I say this so many times, but it’s because I talked to so many new investors, you know, they’ll book every intro call with me, we’ll chat and a lot of investors will have this mindset of like, well, it’s the top of the market, I’m just gonna hold back. And I think that’s a huge mistake, especially if your net worth is under half a million dollars, you need to go out there and swing the bat and go into equity deals and grow your network. You might be hearing guys that are four or 510 million dollars and above sitting on their high horse saying they’re not doing anything right now. Well, guess what, they can do nothing. They can live off one 2% off that large portfolio and not do anything and I ultimately think is just newer investors just kind of shooting themselves in the foot. So Deloitte did a report on the personal savings rate of Americans. And they said while the personal savings rate has been trending upward average savings calculated using the consumer actions expenditure survey has been on a broad decline since 2010 2012. for consumers across income levels and for key working age groups. So we got a little graph here showing how different groups are saving their money, which ultimately, I think that’s the most important statistic to keep, you know, whenever I have a console with an investor, yeah, like to know how much you make and how much you spend, but I ultimately want to know how much you net at the end of the year again, most investors in our group, they’re able to save maybe about $30,000 a year and other ones that are a little better making able to see $50,000 a year that means they might be able to buy two rental properties a year not saying they would, right, but you’ll probably go crazy after you get five or 10 of those turnkey rentals, but they’re exponentially growing their portfolio. So this graph is kind of showing. One thing I pick up on is from 2008. You know, everybody got shell shocked and the recession brought people back to frugal ness. And I think there was a hashtag trend out there where he was cool to be frugal. Right, I read another book and they coined this term called the Great forgetting. And they say, people will normally forget how things were in like eight to 12 years. And I think that’s what’s going on here. Maybe people got really frugal 2008 to 2009 1011 12. But you’re seeing that the clients start to happen in 2013, especially in the top 20% of folks. And the other takeaway I have from this graph is it’s just a little bad that the top 20% have so much disposable income, and that’s why they you know, they go into the all these deals, and that’s great, right, but the people who are in the 8060 to 80 percentile 40 to 60 percentile 20 to 40%. percentile, like they just are not able to create any net at the end of the year. In fact that people that are below 40%, they are negative, they’re they’re like going into debt every single year. So some new podcasts that I have created this past month are up here we did some discussions with asset protection. If you guys think lol C’s are the end all be all well that’s just where it starts and then people that are 1,000,002 million dollar net worth and above should probably be looking into irrevocable trusts and potentially even international trusts. We had Marco Santorelli of nerado who talked about Top Things ignorant investors do and again one of those gonna shoot themselves in the foot not doing anything so in the top markets to invest in 2020 in all these are short YouTube clips that have created in the YouTube channel so if you guys want to go there and share it with friends, I’d appreciate it part of the Richie’s land conservation easements what interest rate to expect from private money lending don’t invest in short term rentals until you understand this, where’s the best marketing platform for short term rentals. Another big one is how is the politics and rent control affect where you should invest? I just stick to the red states simple passive cash flow right big changes to your retirement accounts. And if you didn’t hear what they did with the secure act better, go and check out that article on how the secure x screwed millions out of people’s retirements and do I need asset protection on my retirement accounts was answered in that short form but do you guys have any more questions go to simple passive cash flow calm slash question and type it in there if you leave your email we’ll try and get an answer back to you for a little bit of what I’ve been up to. And again, these all come from the Tony Robbins six needs versus growth so I started to employ a coach to keep me accountable and compress time for me and basically eliminate the time that I lie to myself continually I’ve been doing this for about a month and already it’s just been totally worth its money. I think consider a accountability partner for your selfish you can’t afford it. But yeah, I mean, at the price I pay for this thing pays for itself like four or five times over there, like the emotions that you have the thoughts you having is a sign it’s your job to turn that sign into action. And most times in the past I would just like ignore it right. But as I tell somebody coach who has skin in the game in me being successful, they kind of tease that out and they don’t let me just be okay with contribution. So I actually had a call, I’m trying to work out something where we can contribute to some kind of a charity. I think if the URL is like simple passive cash flow, calm slash charity, you can see the couple projects we’ve done in the past. But my problem is, like, I don’t have the time to find good causes to give to and I don’t want it to just go into oblivion, like a Red Cross thing. I’m not saying it’s a bad cause, but I’d rather be a little bit more. I mean, I’m totally acting like a spoiled rich person, but I want to have control over it. I want to designate where it goes. And one cool site that I found was donors choose so I had a consult with them today figuring out what we can do as a group to pull our money together and something where I can go in there maybe an hour a month and select individual projects. And what’s cool in there is like my wife’s a teacher. So we did this with her class. Last year, and quite frankly, she can’t spend all the money. I mean, there’s just there’s a lot of need on this other site, other teachers but it’s really cool because the teachers they give you feedback, the kids write you letters and they give you like a monthly report on what’s happening so you really feel like you’re making a difference but I want to go in there and pen select projects that are aligned with financial literacy education. Somebody wants to buy a seesaw or some kind of I think it was like a canoe or something. I’m like yeah, we’re not gonna do that and that’s where I’m going to get involved try and pick some of those projects but if you guys have something else or somebody else in our who wants to take the lead on being the point person for selecting these type of charities, let me know number three here significance again, I working with that coach and something that I’m realizing working with them is I need to try and find a way to make a bigger impact whether it’s for ego or what I feel that I need to help spread the word of financial freedom and investing the right way too many people are just misled By the wrong things like paying off debt, I mean, if you pay off debt, you’ll never buy assets that grow your net worth. That’s exactly what they want you to do if there wasn’t dead people would never own their houses not saying that buying a house to live in is a good idea. Number four, how did I create uncertainty in my life? Because sometimes you need to get out of your comfort zone. I don’t have any bigger plans for this year. So if you guys come up with ideas that will stuff for our group to do I don’t know I’m maybe I’m just a little tired. Since we had the QE three in Hawaii a few weeks ago. How did I create some certainty? The QE three was really cool. And I’ll put some pictures on it here. That was us. And that was how I fulfilled that last love and connection because people is what makes all the difference. But people came over for probably about four days, five days actually, if you count the first night, and it was a lot of fun. And it’s something I think that I’m just speaking for myself. Something I’ll probably remember forever. It’s not often you get a group of 30 to 55 year olds in a room are out hiking out on the beach for a sunrise. out to a luau out playing some pickleball and escape rooms where you can do something fun with first total strangers but really start to bond over some of the like mindedness of the financial freedom aspect. And you know, what do you do to build a legacy? So that was something that I want to do it more in the future. And I am thinking this slight mastermind thing might be a annual event ran more like a family reunion than a dozen other real estate events. So maybe Martin Luther King weekend might be a good time to do it. This time was a little weird with Valentine’s Day involved on the first day, I had to go to 90 degrees. So that kind of took a lot of energy. Yeah, maybe mark your calendar might be a little premature of Martin Luther King 2021. Let me see you guys in Hawaii, some of the resistance and barriers after leaving my day job. I’m realizing that it’s just me is the barrier and it always was and people always say well, you must have a lot of this extra time to do what you want. And I honestly say that I probably get almost the same amount done. The day as I did when I was working a full day job I might get like 10 20% more done without the day job but I think it’s there’s a lot less stress a lot better quality of life and it just brings perspective that people especially for the people who don’t like their day jobs most people have to spend at least 40 hours a week beating the time clock in for what right yeah, you make some good friends at work but if you didn’t have to go to the job would you still hang out with those people? Maybe Maybe not. So if there’s any way I can help anybody get out of financial freedom you know, that’s what I’m trying to wrap my head around how do I kind of help the most people get out of this a quick technology tip wrote a quick article on how do you create an instant note without opening up the lock feature on your iPhone every single time I just get so many ideas and I’m sure a lot of you guys get so many ideas and just trying to capture it is one of the most important things especially if you’ve read the whole GTD getting things done methods I finished up this willpower doesn’t work which actually thought was wasn’t a bad book. I thought like it was just had a lot of different strategies. there and I think you’ve just listened to it not at two x speed or three x speed, you just listen at one x speed that might incite some habit changes or new processes you can put into your daily life. So I just wrapped that up and I’m starting to read the go giver. Now, I think the premise is helping others get to where they want to be, and the rest should fall into place. And I’m starting the book club. So what we’re going to do here is every other month I’ll be the last Saturday of the month, every other month, we are going to do a webinar or a meeting and whoever wants to join on you know, you don’t have to be in the passive investor accelerator mastermind and just jump on and hopefully you read the book, but the goal here is to read five or six books a year and you guys can join there at simple passive cash flow calm slash lien hat and click the button register with zoom and you can join us on all the BI monthly calls we have on the books so if you guys go there, sign up and or you go you got two months, I think the next one, I’ll have it is April 25, which is Saturday where we’ll be going over the good giver. So you guys got two months to read it though, but it gets started now. And if you haven’t checked out the passive investor excetera mastermind, we are pretty much done with the first year of it in existence, some investors are phasing out of it. And that was my goal, right? Get them in, get you guys up to a point where you guys can analyze deals and be able to create your network and build some friendships. And if you guys want to get out, right, it’s not one of those things that you need to be in forever. Maybe you need to take a break. Maybe you can come back later. But yeah, we got some openings there. So if you guys want to check that out, go to simple passive cash flow, comm slash journey. So somebody asks, How do you find or choose your coach? So I just went through the Tony Robbins, folks, I can connect you with my guy, but yeah, I mean, supposedly you do the disc exam and this personality test and they fit you with somebody. I don’t know if that’s really how it is, but I Like as a speaking as an entrepreneur, everybody’s an entrepreneur these days, right? You don’t know who’s legit, who’s just faking it. So I just want to go to some brand that was sort of okay. And I’m sure Tony Robbins brand and or directory of coaches is sort of, okay, maybe even pretty good. Who knows, but I just didn’t have the bandwidth to go find a coach. And some people recommended one rule. If you want to really go and roll up your sleeves and go find your own coach, a recommendation that was given to me is you always go off for a referral. It’s just like, Oh, right, like that’s what we do with property managers, brokers, everybody, right, syndicators, it’s always offer all and then they said, well try it out. You can do a few sessions with somebody another session with somebody else and just try it out. See how it works, because that coach may not jive with you, or you may really resonate with them. And another question I had was, well, does this person need to run a podcast and be in real estate and do this stuff I do. And the conclusion that I came up with that you may or may not agree with is that No, they don’t. need to know anything about what you do, they don’t even need to know what a rental property is, or they don’t. Their role is to apply a framework of getting results with you and keeping you accountable and calling you out on your BS. And if they can do that, they probably do 80 to 90% of what you’re looking to do. So a thing that’s just my opinion is they don’t really be doing what you’re doing. I think if you’re looking for that type of person, you’re looking more for a specific business coach. Thank you for listening, and we’ll see you guys next month and be sure to tell your friends about the podcasts and have a good evening everybody like

33:41
this website offers very general information concerning real estate for investment purposes every investor situation is unique. Always seek the services of licensed third party appraisers inspectors to verify the value and condition of any property you intend to purchase. Use the services of professional title and escrow companies and licensed tax investment and or legal advisor before relying on any information contained here and information is not guaranteed as an every investment there is risk. The content found here is just my opinion and things change and I reserve the right to change my mind. Above all else, do your own analysis and think for yourself because in the end, you’re the only person who is going to look out for your best interests.

Transcribed by https://otter.ai

#10 – 2020.02 – The SPC Greensheet

Dear investor,

I hope you are not sick with the Corona-Virus unless you have a lime in it… Ok bad joke just trying to be funny cause everyone seems so sensitive about it. And I’m a little sad about Kobe dying too 🙁

So what would any other investor do who wears Kobe shoes to play basketball but buy into an oil deal. 🎥 Video

After watching the latest Richard Duncan recordings I am paying attention to the corporate debt story. But I don’t buy his line, “if China wins the AI race, as it has won the 5G race, then China will rule the world.”

Talking with other high level family offices it’s funny how they say crowdfunding websites is the place to dump deals you can’t get funded by fools on the internet.

Earlier this month there was some de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran but later the Coronavirus scare brought more volatility to the markets. Why I mention this I don’t know because I don’t really care cause I focus more on cashflow investing but you guys seems to be interested.

 

Links to past PDF slidedecks.

  1. Financial Freedom for Dentists – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/dentist/
  2. Private Money Lending Top Mistakes – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/lendmistakes/
  3. When is it time to Retire? Accredited Investor Live Coaching Call – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/when-is-it-time-to-retire-accredited-investor-live-coaching-call/
  4. Dec 2019 – Borrowing Standards – Rental Income – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/dec2019lending/
  5. Habits – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/habit/ 
  6. Wealth Management Tips from Centimillionaire Family Office Advisor Richard Wilson (184) – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/familyoffice/

  1. Top Multifamily Markets in 2020: Small Metros, Suburbs “As a result of slower economic growth, apartment demand is projected at 240,000 units in 2020, approximately 20 percent less than 2019’s estimated 300,000 units,” CBRE’s market outlook for 2020 shows.
  2. SECURE Act Summary
    • Expands the ability to run multiple employer plans for plan years beginning after December 31, 2020
    • Safe Harbor Rules Simplified for plan years beginning after December 31, 2019
    • Long Term Part-time Workers permitted to participate in 401(k) plans, which applies generally to plan years beginning after December 31, 2020 
    • 3 consecutive 12-month periods the employee has at least 500 hours of service
    • Repeal Maximum Age for Making IRA Contributions which applies to contributions made for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2019 
    • Increase Age for Required Minimum Distributions to 72
    • Applies to distributions required to be made after December 31, 2019, with respect to individuals who attain age 7012 after such date

    RMDs after Death under the Secure Act

    • H.R. 1865 – Sec. 401 Modification of Required Minimum Distribution Rules for Designated Beneficiaries
    • Basically, requires all IRAs and Qualified Plans to be distributed within 10 years of death
    • The Senate version had a 5 year limit

    RMDs after Death under the Secure Act

    Exception to 10-year rule for certain beneficiaries:

    • Surviving Spouse
    • Children under the age of majority (but only until reach age of majority, then 10-year rule)
    • Disabled
    • Chronically ill
    • Another individual who is not more than 10-years younger
  3. Tacked onto last law to keep the government toNo more stretch IRA (including rotes) – only have 10 years. So much money disappear from average Americans.Going after inheritance tax next? Back to Clinton days where it was 600k and over. Maybe do a roth conversion? Or get rid of all retirement funds like how I have been advocating for for a couple years now – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/qrpYou can contribute to qrp for last year until you file for next yearYou can now have annuities in retirement plans – #Lobbistroth conversions –Charitable retainer trust – asset income goes to kids then goes to charityNaming a charity as a beneficiaryLife insurance

    A few others

    Note: I personally don’t do retirement accounts because I want to take advantage if bonus depreciation

  4. U-Haul Migration Trends: Top Growth Cities of 2019
    1. Raleigh-Durham, N.C.
    2. Kissimmee, Fla. 
    3. Ocala, Fla.
    4. Round Rock-Pflugerville, Texas
    5. West Palm Beach, Fla.
    6. Port Saint Lucie, Fla. 
    7. Bradenton-Sarasota, Fla. 
    8. Coeur D’Alene, Idaho
    9. Manhattan, N.Y. 
    10. Harrisburg, Pa. 
    11. New Braunfels, Texas
    12. Auburn-Opelika, Ala.

    13.Huntsville, Ala.

    1. Spring-The Woodlands, Texas 
    2. Boca Raton, Fla.
    3. Henderson, Nev.
    4. McKinney, Texas 
    5. Temecula, Calif. 
    6. Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 
    7. St. George, Utah
  5. Rent Control Makes a Comeback as Housing Crisis Grows Three states passed new laws in 2019 limiting rent increases, others are considering their own measures and housing is set to be on the agenda in the 2020 presidential election. – [Why are you buying in Blue states]
  6. Markets with largest rent growth 😁Markets with largest rent decrease 🙁
  7. Amazon’s 1.4 MSF Florida Project – The e-commerce giant tapped Seefried Industrial Properties to construct a new fulfillment center, which marks the first major development at the new Portland Industrial Park in Deltona near Orlando. The company will create more than 500 new full-time positions at its new Deltona fulfillment center.
  8. Howard Hughes Spends $565M in Houston – The portfolio includes the former headquarters of Anadarko Petroleum and ConocoPhillips, plus a warehouse and developable land.
  9. Seattle Office Report – Fall 2019 – Strong market dynamics continue to support the metro’s rapid expansion, with a saturated tech sector extending and shaping the current real estate landscape.
  10.  
  11. Largest Employer by State
  12. Chinese Investment in U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Plunging – Chinese investors put 76 percent less money into U.S. CRE year-to-date through September than in 2018.
  13. US Monthly Volume and Pricing Trends by Sector – Ramping up activity in the U.S. apartment and industrial sectors over the last five years while moving away from the retail sector.
  14. The Impact of the Next Recession on the Multifamily Market 
  15. Macy’s Store Closings – Nearly 30 of the retailer’s 641 locations will shutter following a moderate decline in comparable sales through the holiday season. 
  16. 75 Million Ponzi Scheme – The Income Store
  17. Retail Property Taxes Likely To Rise – Pier 1 announced it would close up to 450 of its stores.
  18. Electronics Stores Join Brick-and-Mortar Exodus – Audio equipment giant Bose will close its remaining 119 retail stores in four markets including the U.S.
  19. Despite Missed Sales Projections, Discount Retailer Five Below Will Open 180 New Stores This Year
  20. The median age of homebuyers is now 47 
  21. Co-Showering & Multi-generational Houses?!?
  22. Hilton Launches New Lifestyle Brand – The hotel firm has already secured 30 commitments for its latest offering, Tempo by Hilton, which is designed to appeal to the ambitious modern traveler.
  23. Four Strategies for 2020 Success in Class B Multifamily Space – New markets, Tech, Employees, Regulations
  24. Housing market falling short by nearly 4 million homes as demand growsThe 5.9 million single family homes built between 2012 and 2019 do not offset the 9.8 million new households formed during that time, according to an analysis by realtor.comEven with an above average pace of construction, it would take builders between four and five years to get back to a balanced market.“Simply put, new home starts are not keeping pace with demand. Homebuilders have a mountain of opportunity, but a big hill to climb,” said Javier Vivas, director of economic research at realtor.com
  25. Millennials’ share of the U.S. housing market: Small and shrinking 

 

Getting to know my investors better. Tours and Hawaii mastermind – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/hui3

I don’t think I have not given anyone do did not book a call some type of referral or feedback.

Focus on being a family office for 1-10M net worth families

Wealth Planning

    1. Succession Planning 
    2. Estate Planning 

Wealth Management

Tax Planning

Trust & Corporate Services

Family Governance

Charity & Philanthropy

 

Doing the first multi day event in Hawaii.

 

Learning more about risk types in investment

 

Booking spring break. Minimum of four trips a year.

 

Wow January is OVER

No exceptions

 

 

Complete #LaneHack list

Passive Investor Accelerator & Mastermind

-Mostly Accredited high paid professionals to connect with personally and build your own network (currently 45 members)
-27 modules of content in a closed membership site
-Bi-weekly Zoom Video calls (25+ on-demand recordings a year plus all library of past calls)
-Now with a membership coordinator check-in’s to help facilitate what you are doing and connect you with the right people in the group (if you are shy)

Learn more and apply – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/Journey

If can do me a favor… If you get a chance people review leave a review for the podcast on iTunes (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/simple-passive-cashflow/id1118795347) and email simplepassivecashflow.com to a friend.

 

 

 

Transcript:

0:04
When I got smart and so my primary residence to start investing investments that actually made sense who I needed a place to diversify quickly as opposed some money market or some high reward checking account Let’s face it, turnkey rentals are cool and syndications are great but they don’t come around often I stumbled upon the American homeowner preservation fund the owner George new marry once apartments indicator to is now sponsoring the podcast is fun cuts the middleman out to crowd fund the solution to the mortgage crisis in America they empower you to fund the purchase of distressed mortgages and earn returns at smoke any other passive fun if you find something else better out there, let me know oh yeah, they work with families to keep them in their home after buying an underwater note at a huge discount. It’s an opportunity to make an impact on families and communities while earning returns. start investing with a zoals hundred bucks in invest in hp. com if you want the free burn zone book please send me an email at Lane at simple passive cash flow calm

1:03
This week we are going to be doing the 2020 February edition of the green sheet investor letter you guys can check out all these letters and past videos at simple passive cash flow calm slash investor letter. And make sure you check this out on the YouTube channel to make a bunch of slides. And if you’re listening to this on the podcast version, probably going to want to check out a lot of the graphs that are put in there to kind of brings another dimension to this. But however you guys want to consume this podcasts YouTube channel, it’s all fine with me. And those of you who are high net worth passive investors

1:36
still using a 401k or self

1:39
directed IRA, you’re doing it all wrong, man. I don’t have any retirement accounts because I would rather pay taxes on it today when my income is less than in the future. Just very counterintuitive. People will say that you’re going to make a lot less in the future, which as you know, we do things a little bit differently at simple passive cash flow, why I’d like to not use a timing plan or what we call requalified money is that I want to avoid the unify and you bit tax now the one way you can do this VA retirement con is called a QR p or qualified retirement plan you guys can check this out at simple passive cash flow calm slash qR P and also fill out the form there and you can get a free book sent your way to learn more about it and here is the show is

2:20
a story about a dude named Lane he moved to the mainland and bought one place to stay and then one day he went try to rent them out

2:28
and then he became one real investor.

2:33
It is February 2020. This is the monthly market update or I collect a bunch of news articles that I’ve sifted through. You guys can find the show notes on the sun at simple passive cash flow calm slash green 10 that’s with a one zero green one zero. And I do this every month recapping what I’ve been up to at the end and some of the biggest news headlines that I’ve been seeing that I think in pack macro and some Micro markets out there. Again, all these will be posted on the YouTube channels if you guys are missing out on the audio or the video version, guys just checking on this on the audio version, you guys can check out more there too. So if you guys don’t know who I am Lane Kawaoka, I still have my PE and you guys probably found me through the simple passive cash flow podcast. But if you guys haven’t already joined our Facebook community online, probably find it by going through simple passive cash flow. We is what we call ourselves. So biggest news that happened this month case you didn’t know it, but they signed the secure act which basically Rob millions of millions of dollars and millions of Americans without you guys even knowing. So let’s break this down. What is the secure act here? So you remember when the government was kind of going bankrupt and they needed to come up with some new laws to not have that happen while this is the byproduct of it. And what it is, is a way of generating income for the government, which is typically not very good for us. Americans is In a better way, kind of the deal for us got worse. So here’s a few bullet points it expanded the ability to run multiple employer plans for plan years beginning after December 31 2020. Had safe harbor rules apply for plan years beginning after December 31 2019. Long term part time workers permitted to participate in 401k plans which applies generally to plan years beginning after December 31 2023 consecutive 12 period the employer has at least 500 hours of service a repeal the maximum age from making IRA contributions which appeals to contributions made for taxable years beginning after December 31 2019. Increase the age for a minimum required minimum distributions which we call it rmds to 72 and applies to distributions required to be made after December 31 2019. With respect to individuals who attained age 70 and a half after such You guys are probably sleeping, you guys are probably just like any other Americans probably didn’t pick up anything, nothing really popped up there. But here is there were some good things in there. Frankly, I don’t really care because I don’t have any retirement plans myself, I rather invest my money and take all the depreciation today and live off that today. So they changed the rule with rmds after death. So before they got rid of stretch IRAs, you guys can go all that you want. But basically what you were able to do is say your parents died and they had an IRA, they could give it to you and they would keep going stretch, but now they have this little nasty rule a year that basically requires all IRAs and qualified plans to be distributed within 10 years of death. So you got a limit. So if your parents die and you have this money, you got to spend it in 10 years, so the red flag should be going up. Everybody got screwed out there. The Senate version had a five year limit by the way, but it turned out to be a 10 year time horizon. There is a next Up to the 10 year rule for surviving spouse. So if your wife or your husband dies, they have the IRA that 10 year rule doesn’t apply. Also exemptions children under the age of minority. So basically, if you’re a kid and once you become an adult, I believe that 10 year old clients at that point, it doesn’t apply if you’re disabled chronically ill, and another individual who is not more than 10 years younger. So look at it from this direction the government wants to wants to harvest returns from us, the citizen, they want us to pay taxes they want. They want to get the money out of these silly retirement accounts that they promised everybody that they would have tax free, but at some point, they’re going to tax these things. And the government’s just sliding all this revenue up quicker. That’s essentially what’s happening here. So it’s a big, big deal. This is just a good example of how these tax laws can change. Back in the clinton days they inherited tax with way less, it was like 600,000 today their inheritance taxes. Super, super high. You know, that’s why you have kind of read government at this point. But if somebody else gets in there, these rules might change. And one of the biggest things in here is under the RM DS. The biggest exemption is a surviving spouse, they may just choose to get rid of that whole surviving spouse exemption, which means if your spouse passes away other than all that the heartache and the sorrow you’re gonna have to pay taxes on their estate, which I think is unfair, but hey, that’s like a one of the coolest byproducts of this is if you guys are doing the QR PS you guys can contribute up to when you file your taxes. So if you’re like me and all the cool kids filing your taxes in September and October, you can contribute to your to your P for the previous year, all the way up to that point, just like how you’re able to do for your Roth IRAs or IRAs, same kind of rules apply. So the secure act kind of open that up and then now you can have annuities and your retirement plans. So that kind of opens up a whole new door for those of you You guys, you know playing around with life insurance, Internet Banking concepts there. If anybody has any questions on this, feel free to type it into the chat, but I’m going to move on to kind of more rapid fire headline title is top multifamily markets in 2020, or the small metals and the suburbs. And they’re seeing as a result of the slower economic growth apartment demand is projected at 240,000 units in 2020, which is approximately 20% less than that of 2019 estimated 300,000 units CBRE are he comments. rent control is sort of making a comeback. There was real laws passed in late 2019. Limiting and rent increases. If you read into it. It doesn’t seem as bad I guess depending which side of the table you’re standing on right politically, but sometimes they’ll put in restriction where it needs to be based on some higher number that they’re really never get, I think is sort of fair. But regardless, I mean, if you’re investing in California, I don’t know why you arguing that or even any other blue state for that matter probably not getting the rental value of the 1% rental value ratios for anything that’s not a war zone property or C class property or worse. So I don’t know why you would be doing that the U haul release their top 20 growth cities for 2019. And this is something I tracked closely This is the U haul is which used to move around with when you are broke and you didn’t have any money. So it’s it’s a good indicator for what the blue collar workforce housing folks are doing when they have to move. A lot of the influx of people are in the Florida State Raleigh Durham, North Carolina is number one, Ron Rock, Texas is number for a lot of Florida ones in here, Cortland, Idaho Manhattan, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Actually, I don’t know if this chart is incredibly useful. I mean, its top growth cities I’d rather see in the more regions and states that’d be how I would use the U haul Report.

9:58
I’m super excited about new program. I’m rolling That’s going to reinvent scammy Real Estate education programs. So excited like Marie Kondo cleaning stuff up excited. Announcing my new mastermind program which consists of a closed members site with 27 packed weeks of content, plus bi weekly group video conference calls to us whatever half of the calls will be centered around granular investing tactics, and the other half will be holistic wealth building strategies that I have learned from the wealthy.

10:25
That’s 25 plus hours of group coaching and masterminding and a secret Facebook group too. I know what you’re thinking none another flippin Facebook group. Well, this one’s going to be different, more intimate, exclusive, and no cheapskates or shady vendors in it. I’ve been coaching individual clients over the past couple years and I figured out what you guys need in a way to provide it in a cost effective way. learn more, go to simple passive cash flow.com backslash journey and join for the first cohort fills up, an introductory pricing goes away.

10:59
Update online conservation easements This is more for the accredited folks who make over two to $300,000 adjusted gross income per year but for everybody’s entertainment what our land conservation easements so land conservation easements are a tricky way of getting a tax write off by designating a piece of land a land conservation easement, it no development can go there in the future by doing this, it becomes sort of a taxable donation. So just like how you take a bag of old clothes out to the Salvation Army, and you arbitrarily call that $500 but what you’re doing here is you’re taking a piece of land that has some nice environmental value to it like they usually put it around like chump will do this around his golf courses, and they’ll designated a land conservation easement. But the tricky thing is that they’ll like they have the value of land but then they’ll mark up some kind of like fictitious development plan to be basically get an appraised value of when you are five to 10 times higher than what the land is actually worth. So what guys will do is though and invest or basically donate 50 grand and it goes on a taxable donation, but they get like a five to one pop on this stuff. So for every 50 grand they donate, they get 20 $50,000 of deductions, not credits, deductions, but for a guy and, you know, making more than $350,000 a year, that’s a lot of money at 50 cents of every dollar of tax savings. The news is recently a lot of this has been getting a lot of unpopular attention, and it is kind of fishy. So investors are kind of in a holding pattern, how they’re doing this. If they really need to get the tax deduction. What they’re probably doing is just chancing it and doing it but they’re not being overly aggressive and they’re sticking to a boost ratio of five to one or less. So it’s kind of one of those things where you don’t want to be greedy, was it pigs get slaughtered hogs get fat so he basically buying charitable donations at 16 cents on $1 couple of charts markets with the largest rent growth year over year from November to November 2008 22,019 and the with the markets with the largest rent decrease I have these charts flip flop but the list you don’t want to be on these are the losers number one Midland Odessa number two Honolulu number three bathroom rage before Scranton and number five, Lafayette Louisiana and the winners a top five markets are number one Pensacola which went up 8.3% Phoenix Arizona went up 7.9% number three Huntsville Alabama went up 7.1% for is Las Vegas 6.4% and number five, Portland, Maine which we went up 6.3% I’m aware of all these markets of Pensacola was kind of a weird one. I got surprised by that one someone told me it had to do with I guess there was like a hurricane there a while back ago and now this is part of the bounce back. Most markets will just kind of get keep pace with inflation, maybe two to 3% a year more of the hot markets will be five to 8%. So these are hot markets here. Amazon’s 1.4 million square foot Florida project near Orlando is taken off. But don’t be misled by another Amazon fulfillment center. This one’s only going to have 500 new full time positions. And when you’re looking at a tertiary market, for example, Huntsville, 500 jobs, it’s nice right but not that much. Usually a bigger announcement from a major employer might be more like on the 1000 magnitude or higher one the few thousand jobs that’s a big news but I think you see a lot of these new sources for real estate they’ll say a search an employer, but at the end of the day, you really have to see what kind of what’s the numbers how many people are going there. And also what is the multiplier effect for like a Boeing or like a car manufacturing on you have a lot of the ancillary other providers like bait build other pieces of the car the airplane. I don’t know how it is with these Amazon fulfillment centers maybe if somebody sells snacks at the 711 or something like that but I don’t think you have a big multiplier on on that but I could be wrong realtor.com came out with their 2020 housing forecast and they are take it for what it’s worth right a bunch of realtors then again they do like to spend money on a lot of things like probably a lot of number crunchers and data peoples but they’re saying mortgage rates by the end of the year will be going up a little bit to 3.8% average median home price will go up almost 1% existing home sales will go down 1.8% and I believe that talking more about volume than pricing and then homeownership rate 64.6% and single family home starts which are new builds will be going up to 6%. And another site but I found from our friends@realtor.com are is that millennials make up over 46% of the mortgage rates. donations up from 43% last year according to realtor.com. So maybe the millennials are finally moving out of mom and dad’s basement and getting into the game. It’s about time we have some more news on that later. Another news headline says us monthly volume and pricing trends by sector. This is post setup at simple passive cash flow calm slash investor letter, and then you can drill into the February report. From there Howard Hughes spends bottom half a billion dollars in Houston and his portfolio includes the former headquarters of a narco petroleum and chemical Philips plus a warehouse and developable land. A Seattle office report says that in Seattle, there’s strong market dynamics continue to support the metros rapid expansion with a saturated tech sector extending and shaping the current real estate landscape. So yeah, Seattle has a lot of tech jobs, the big white collar workforce apparently they Working in offices, right? Go figure that there’s a little chart there showing the growth of that more of that office space employment. So here was that us monthly volume and pricing trends by sector. So you have the office, industrial retail and apartment space shown. A lot of you guys are into technical analysis. I don’t know if you guys are any good at it. I was never but you have the price growth, which is the line but then you have the volume bars underneath it. And usually when you have a lot of volume and you have movement, then that’s a positive signal that you can really look at as a trend. And when you have movement on low volume, that’s typically a maybe a false positive trend, a little map here of the largest employer in every state. Some of the more popular ones where our community is mostly based out of Washington is bowling. Oregon is Providence health. California is the University of California. That’s a little weird, Nevada. MGM resorts, we don’t care too much about those other states. Hawaii is altered industrial and never heard of them. But pretty much everywhere south east of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, North Carolina. I think that’s Virginia. Everything south of there is Walmart or the biggest employer in the state. So a little bit of trivia there. So I was reading some articles on newer trends in apartments and some of this was more on the E Class side. Coffee calls the A plus side I mean, these these are like the 1500 dollar to 20 $500 one bedroom apartments. So they’re saying like, what are the new amenities that are going in and all of this has nothing to do with stuff I buy, which is the more workforce housing It is interesting to see what is going in there. So they’re saying like the peloton bikes, the ones that had the little computer screen that apparently people are going crazy over recently, they have gyms in the apartments they want the tenants to feel special. I don’t know what that means but more like white glove service. I know a lot of people have kind of been taking my advice and selling your primary residence because it doesn’t make you any money invest the money instead and a lot of people are really liking the apartment life. You got the pool, you got kids, you don’t have to worry about cleaning anything. They like the pool, you got a gym, there’s a pool, and it’s a lot cheaper to don’t believe that nonsense of renting is just throwing money down the drain. I mean, whoever said that’s probably stuck at the day job. You don’t want to listen to that guy. impact of the next recession on the multifamily market is the next on topic. This came from the US Census Bureau data. So in the green line, it’s showing that the vacancy rate, which typically is between six and 11%, obviously after the recession kind of spiked a little bit but over 10% but slowly but surely the past 10 years it’s been coming down to almost all time lows for About 7% or so. And homeowner vacancy is usually about 1% to 3%. I pulled a chart of the stock market here. I honestly don’t really follow the stock market stresses me out. But from time to time I like to know what’s happened just so I can kind of poke fun at people who like trade stocks and options and think they know what they’re doing. Yeah, I mean, pretty much at all time highs where we were in year 2000. Here market US market cap divided by GDP is what I’m looking at. So I don’t know if you guys have bosses that shop at Macy’s but they might be really sad because nearly 30 of the retailers 641 locations wash clothes following a decline in comparable sales through the holiday season. And we’ve been following this trend the last few months ago and listen to pass investor letters to get was forever 21. I can’t think of the other ones but a lot of these storefronts We’re kind of going out of business. It’s the whole click vs brick battle get it click on your Amazon versus anyway another article that I put up is the retail property taxes is likely to rise and Sapir one announced that it will close up to 450 stores the electronic store Bose A lot of you guys like to wear and be anti social as you go out in public will close the remaining 119 retail stores but it’s not all doom and gloom because if you shop at the discount retailer Five Below they will be opening 180 stores actually bought that place was like a frozen yogurt place at one time and then I went in there and I found that otherwise so Ponzi scheme alert $700 million from the income store. Now we did a podcast maybe about a couple months ago about buying websites sort of like how you buy a distressed house you buy distressed website that is suitable for me you make it a little bit better. So the income store I understand that This this model, right is is sort of like a trading you could you could buy and sell websites on there. I don’t know exactly what they were doing. But apparently they took everybody’s money and this kind of story came out, which is kind of a shame. You know, I’m all for getting these marketplaces open so entrepreneurs can get involved, but it’s times like this where like, it makes everybody gun shy where you get one back after that kind of spoil it for everyone. We were talking a little bit about the millennials possibly moving on and finally buying homes. So there was a study that came out by the Deutsche Bank research that the median age of homebuyers is now 47 years old. And that went up from 31 to 47. And there’s a little graph there. That shows, you know, way back when in 1980, the median home buyer age was 30 years old, and it’s just been going up year after year after year. A lot more since the financial crisis. I mean, I guess people are having kids lot later. Another graph millennial share of the US housing market small and shrinking. So this graph is showing the millennial home ownership, slum share of American real estate home by each generation by medium cohort age. So showing how the baby boomers are they love that homeownership stuff. And then the Generation X folks, they’re kind of hitting their Apex it looks like right now and then the millennials are kind of behind some new trends in apartments or in housing in general are bigger showers so you can cold shower, I don’t know maybe have two people in there. I don’t know what that’s all about. But it was interesting. Like we have a more of a nicer apartment more of a B plus asset. And what we’re having to do there is removed a lot of the bathtubs because people just don’t use it. They’d rather have a more fancy or tiled shower than have a bathtub. They’ll pay more for that. So I don’t know if they’re gonna fit two or more people in there but the showers a little bit more popular more modern these days maybe that has to do with people just being too busy. They just got to go in and out. They can’t put rose petals around their bathtub and drink wine around that time. I was just joking there. Some of you guys need to laugh a little bit later in the day here. And then multi generational housing is becoming more popular and Hilton’s launching this new brand called temple. So it’s supposed to cater towards ambitious modern traveler, whatever that means you’ll have iPhones or something like that for strategies for 2020 success in class, the multifamily space I’ve kind of moved on from classy properties, they’re really difficult they never pay I think it’s just better to be more in a B class type of asset unless you have a really really severely under market and you’re going to do heavy value add like more than five six grand per unit rehab per unit. But this article that there’s four strategies that they cited, first one was new markets. So looking markets that people aren’t looking in number two was employing tech. And I really understand this whole tech angle. They’re saying like, Oh, you have to use Alexa and all you know the little things, all that Amazon stuff, you don’t put that in class B and C properties that’ll grow legs and you’ll you won’t find it anymore. But maybe they’re talking more about the smart thermostats. It didn’t say 10 employees because in these type of areas, your employees are very important the leasing agent you pay them on salary in apartments and then regulations because like all the new rental control laws has been upon all that stuff. Very important recently went to a mastermind and a family office gentleman came in talk to us about a few trends that are happening said that in the year 2025, there’ll be more people turning 65 then babies born so that means there’s going to be a lot more older people soon but don’t go to simple passive cash flow calm slash elf and start to learn how to make your own assisted living facility like A lot of you guys will do that is a huge, huge undertaking and something I tried to do and I just backpedaled and plus the silver wave isn’t there yet, like a lot of the baby boomers are finally retiring, it’s going to be another decade or two until they really start to use that assisted living facilities. Another big trend that they cited was the race for 5g and I don’t know how to pronounce right, like who way but there’s this big, big thing versus them, the United States where they don’t want to use their technology because they think they’re going to steal from us. I don’t know if that’s true if they really gonna steal from us. But you know, being from America probably isn’t good if they win that race. And it’s sort of the modern day race to the moon. It’s riddled with backdoors. Lane two, don’t trust it. Don’t trust it. All right. Good thing. We’re still getting the G here in Hawaii. So it’ll be a while. Another thing that I found interesting from the presentation was, I think in the year 2026, there’s going to be more electric cars than gas cars. That’s sort of the inflection point. You know, a lot of these guys are family office money. And if you’ve never heard of these terms private equity family office and venture capital private equity is kind of the syndications people who are a million dollar to $5 million network. We’re family offices are more on the scale of 50 to 100 plus million dollars, big money housing market falling short by nearly 4 million homes as demand grows. So this is just more of a general article. That’s just reiterating. Look, guys, the country needs housing, and especially housing for folks who don’t make $100,000 or more. And we’re continuing to build new product, but the pace of population growth is increasing, and it’s not keeping up with the pace with demand. And that’s why I think why a lot of us fall back to real estate because it’s sort of a commodity and you’ll always need it. New podcasts and articles that I put together in the month of January 1 was the financial freedom for dentist so I have a lot of dentists in the mastermind program like almost seven or nine of them I realized so I got a bunch of their thoughts together and I remove the identities and zip codes and social security numbers and I put some of the the thoughts there and might be more of a dentist thing but it might also apply if you’re a doctor or any other high paid professional to another article I wrote was the private money lending top mistakes I put it at simple passive cash flow calm slash lend mistakes you can also check out the dentist article at simple passive cash flow calm slash dentists we had an accredited investor Come on the podcast and do a coaching call with me appreciate when you guys do that i a lot of you guys really like to watch vicariously you know for high paid professionals is really many different scenarios that I have a lot of these coaching calls in the YouTube channel. I have them in index and a section if you guys want to check out some of the past ones. Yeah, check those out. And see if they help you but just know that not all situations are like and the biggest part of this at the end of the day is deal flow What are you going to do right like you read that Rich Dad Poor Dad book and you’re like All right, we’re going to take over the world but what are you going to do? You don’t know right? He doesn’t say anything because that kind of changes all the time. Who do you work with December 2019 they changed some borrowing standards. Some of you guys are still buying those rental properties or turnkey rentals there was some changes and how they calculate think that to income you guys can check out there all these links are again on simple passive cash flow calm slash investor letter number five here habits you guys miss the goals webinar. I believe the webinar was simple passive cash flow, calm 2020 dash launch. Do you guys want to go and watch that webinar again, but I made a little sub article on habits and I had Richard Wilson on podcast 184. He is a family office guy who manages and millionaire families. You guys can check that Went out at simple passive cash flow calm slash family office catching up on that chat box here one person mentioned or they’re asking my opinion on the previous retail malls at least metropolitan areas possibly converting to food halls areas for experience halls I’m looking into like commercial commercial centers, these are the more ones with your haircut, place your food place grocery store, because I think you’re always going to have to go to those and that’s why Amazon had the insight to buy whole foods of brick and mortar at the end of the day. I mean, still the minority of transactions are done online. I think the problem is the more mulish you know, your cube malls not the big boxes like the Best Buy and those type of areas but going to the mall, that experiences going away. And yeah, I think you point out a good thing here like food halls, eateries and experience observe definitely coming online, right? We’re like the old 90s retail mall that’s obviously kept dying. But now people want more experiences or something family friendly or just a variety of food options. It’s kind of like a one stop place. I guess it just kind of reinvents the idea of what going to the mall is. I mean, I saw I was just wasting all the time couple weeks ago during the holidays watching this like these guys went into an abandoned mall and YouTube probably find them on Dandan mall videos but yeah, I mean people want more funding hop golf will have that stuff the whole Have you ever been to Vegas guys like to do that? Well, I know you guys are thinking something else at this point. But like the construction equipment, like you have construction equipment, you just, you know move dirt around that kind of stuff or like escape rooms I like escape

31:38
from things like drive a tank or

31:40
you know, various experiences coming unique. The can’t get a lot of places, right? I know that they call them D boxing to where they take a big space and they’ll chop it up into these little food halls too. That’s another term. I’m more of a spectator with this stuff. I kind of see it. I kind of watch it but I think as an investor, I try and stick to Certain things that I know, but eventually I think at some point multifamily apartments will just get so saturated by people who think that they can do it. Because I guess it’s kind of true, you can kind of just pick a property manager and you can get lucky. And it’s easy. And that’s why a lot of people do it. And that’s why a lot of the dumb money goes there. So eventually things will correct. And apartments won’t be as good cap rates as other things. But I’m going to move into more of what I’ve been doing other than spelling things wrong, like I normally do. But these are the six needs that Tony Robbins always talks about. So this is how I always break it up. We’re meeting growth, trying to get to know my investors better. I probably had about three four calls with investors every day for the past month. I think everybody wants to get on their 2020 goals and book a call, but we haven’t had a chance to connect trying to connect with everybody at least once. So go ahead and do that. And then I’m also planning the tour’s been high gain and do a luau in Hawaii and you guys can check that out symbol passes. Cash Flow calm slash week three, that’s February 714. To 17 way I’m trying to contribute back to others, you know, and those calls, I always try and make it a point to give some kind of referral or critical feedback to anybody because I didn’t really have that when I was building my portfolio. And I think a lot of people don’t realize like, I’m gonna bought my first rental in 2009. And I bought my next one in 2011, I think or 12. But for like about five years, it was like watching grass grow. And I wish somebody would have told me don’t buy 11 rental properties. They’re a pain in the butt. I wish somebody would have told me that number three significance. So I’ve kind of been turned on to this whole family office concept where you kind of work with a smaller number of clients. So I’ve been kind of focusing on maybe turning into a family office where I work with people who are one to $10 million net worth folks where I’m sort of the consultant I’m in the middle of the wheel, doing the wealth planning, estate planning, wealth management, tax planning, trust and Corporate Services, family, governments. And then you know, what is the meaning behind your existence like a charity philanthropy, you can’t just get a tax guy right on your team because the tax guy doesn’t talk to the deal guy who doesn’t talk to the wealth management guy, right? It’s good that you get specialists on your team and you should, but there’s a reason why there are specialists, they don’t have the big picture away. I’m getting uncertainty. And the reason why I put this there and I read all I’m really like certainty, and I know all we all do, we all like to stay in our comfort zone. But I’m going to try do the first multi day event in Hawaii. I’ve been trying to plan it this past week, which is getting to be pretty close up to the wire. That’s just how I do things, but it’s gonna be cool. It’s gonna be awesome. It’s gonna a lot of fun. I think we got probably about over 30 people coming. So it should be good. How am I getting certainty in my life? So we had a gentleman Microsoft come to our mastermind group to kind of talk about how do you grade different investments and he kind of says great idea of budget 1234 of investment grade versus speculative grade investments, and assuming that the performers are using good assumptions and not just bogus yeah you can kind of break it down what kind of investment philosophy do you have? Are you just want to go balls to the wall and just do a high growth or you just want to do cash flow stuff and should you do that if your net worth is under half a million dollars so you got to take on some risk right if your goals are bigger number six love and connection so I been consciously trying to book four trips a year now they don’t have a day job it’s hard because I go traveling all the time to check out deals and but I encourage everybody to plan vacations. I know that sounds really silly but most people don’t do it because if not you can just be Kobe Bryant and just disappear off the face of the ER was all for nothing. And what some of the resistance or distractions that I’ve been facing that I’m sure everybody else’s the heck it’s February right guys, you’re one fourth way through the year and you had all these goals, you probably forgot the damn things, you know. Just remember you’re gonna be like Janet is March going to be like January other than that no exceptions living a good life things are good some junk is buying your bought this like doorstop it’s kind of heavy it’s a Boolean to you guys can get the links on the website and I’ve been like trying to buy a lot of things that are automated. So I have these crazy automation with Alexa and trying to automate everything but I found these super simple you just press the button based on how long you want it to turn on. So the coffee pot I’ll just turn it on for an hour so doesn’t go on. And I’ve been reading this book willpower doesn’t work by Benjamin Hardy, so heavier ears if you like to read books, but here it is in one minute. As human beings we are terrible at executing we need to give ourselves every single chance that we can get to hit success and a lot of that is building systems around making us successful. So what time you’re waking up What do you how do you set the table for your day The next day, I just like reading the book and I would listen to subconsciously and they would mention certain examples and it would like trigger different things for me to change or new systems and put in place I can’t really think of any right now. I would recommend it it’s a pretty quick read no easter egg for you guys they know happy things. Here’s the legal disclaimer And that brings us to the end of the February report. That’s it. We’ll talk to you guys next time.

37:26
This website offers very general information concerning real estate for investment purposes every investor situation is unique always seek the services of licensed third party appraisers inspectors to verify the value and condition of any property you intend to purchase. Use the services of professional title and escrow companies and licensed tax investment and or legal advisor before relying on any information contained herein information is not guarantee as in every investment there is risk. The content found here is just my opinion and things change and I reserve the right to change my mind. Above all else, do your own analysis and think for yourself because in the end You’re the only person who is going to look out for your best interests.

 

#9 – 2020.01 – The SPC Greensheet

Dear investor,

It was a restful holiday season yet busy time as we transitioned ownership into the last few deal we closed in Q4 of 2019.

 

Links to past PDF slidedecks.

  1. Transitioning to Syndications & LP Tips Webinar
  2. Infinite Banking with Whole Life Insurance for 2020
  3. New investor portal with 3 free modules and past deal webinars
  4. 2020 Goals Launch

  1. Florida’s 1st LGBTQ Senior Housing Project Breaks Ground – MHN 19.10.25 – [Simply pointing out a trend in ALF]
  2. NAS Acquires 27,465 SF Flex Building in Springdale, Arkansas Leased to BNSF Logistics – REBusiness 19.12.02
  3. Redstone Arsenal growing to 50,000 workers by 2025 – Huntsville Real-Time News 19.12.04 -“Huntsville’s Redstone Arsenal will grow from 44,000 employees now to “over 50,000 by 2025,” its senior commander said today, and it plans $2 billion in infrastructure investments in the next five years to keep growing.”  Plus new $175M Plant
  4. Top markets for MF Rent Growth – MHN 19.11.29 – 
  5. Freddie Mac: Here’s what to expect from the housing market in 2020 and beyond – Housing Wire 19.11.27 -The GSE also expects home price growth to slow over the next few years, with annual growth rates of 3.2%, 2.9% and 2.1% in 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively.
  6. An end to Fannie, Freddie conservatorship by 2022? – Housing Wire 19.11.14 – “If all goes well, 2021, 2022 we will see very large public offerings from these companies. Fannie and Freddie could be looking at exiting government control by 2022 or 2023, according to Calabria.”
  7. On a year-over-year basis, the September starts of buildings with five or more units were 5.8 percent below September 2018. – MHN 19.11.18
  8. U.S. Job Gains Surprisingly Solid in October – Realpage 19.11.06
  9. Phoenix Multifamily Report – Fall 2019
    The metro’s sustained economic performance and demographic expansion continue to be reflected in its multifamily market. – CPE 19.11.22 – [Its a hot market but it also fell a lot in the recession]
  10. 19.12.28 Matrix Multifamily National Report-November 2019
  11. Airbnb is banning all “open-invite parties and events” – Newsweek 19.12.06 – “Hosts who attempt to circumvent this ban and allow guests to throw large parties will be subject to consequences”
  12. 5 Markets With the Greatest Rent Loss – MHN 19.12.12 
  13. Average New Apartment Size Shrinks in East and West Coast Cities – National RE Investor 19.12.19 -In buildings developed since 2010, apartments average roughly 940 sq. ft. in size, according to RealPage. That’s down from an average size of roughly 1,000 sq. ft. in buildings created before 2010. “Prior to 2010, properties were more likely to feature a more prominent mix of two- and three-bedroom floorplans as opposed to studios and one-bedrooms”
  14. Other trends: Boomers downsizing, pop up stores, rumors on accredited status

 

Plan for 2020.

First Multi-day Mastermind – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/hui3

Lead goals seminar. 2020 Goals Launch

Approach higher level guests and authors to have on podcast.

 

Trying out some new mastermind groups. Traveling to new places.

 

Traveled to Japan.. again

 

Scheduled meetings. SimplePassiveCashflow.com/talk

 

Holidays… I just seemed to not get much done until the evening.

I am paying 50%/10% marketing commissions on my eCourse and Mastermind. More info here – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/referral

Product pages:
https://simplepassivecashflow.com/ecourse/
https://simplepassivecashflow.com/journey/

Bought cold press juice subscription

David Goggins – Can’t Hurt Me (All book recommendations)

Complete #LaneHack list

Passive Investor Accelerator & Mastermind

-Mostly Accredited high paid professionals to connect with personally and build your own network (currently 45 members)
-27 modules of content in a closed membership site
-Bi-weekly Zoom Video calls (25+ on-demand recordings a year plus all library of past calls)
-Now with a membership coordinator check-in’s to help facilitate what you are doing and connect you with the right people in the group (if you are shy)

Learn more and apply before out max head count is reached and 2020 pricing takes effect – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/Journey

If can do me a favor… If you get a chance people review leave a review for the podcast on iTunes (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/simple-passive-cashflow/id1118795347) and email simplepassivecashflow.com to a friend.

 

 

Transcript:

0:03
What’s up simple passive cash flow listeners wanted to announce the first multi day we mastermind in Hawaii will be holding it on my island of Oahu, Honolulu is on President’s Day 2020. And that’s February 14 to the 17th. And a reminder, Valentine’s Day is the 14th. But we’ll keep that evening for you. families and couples want to come on down for that we’re actually encouraging spouses and families have come down, because that’s part of the whole experience. Getting to know other families and getting to know other community members is gonna be a big part of this. So what to expect structured networking and masterminding with existing CWI investors and other affluent investors. We’re going to create the time in the environment to build real relationships that you can take For forever and for you, a students out there will do even be doing a full day of networking and mastermind and education. So once again, bring your families we’re going to have optional excursions such as a luau, happy hours dinners and some other activities to be able to have fun in the sun. And, you know, space is extremely limited because my vision is to kind of create this as a more intimate environment where we’re all one big little ohana here. So come in and combined business and pleasure in a little tax write off hopefully you can get that right off in before the 2019 ends. Those signing up now we’ll be able to get a free one on one strategy session that if you want to stick around till Tuesday, we can knock that out or if you’re leaving early, we can try and get that done throughout the weekend. But Hope to see you out in Hawaii go to simple passive cash flow. dot com slash week three. And we’ll see you guys here.

2:26
Okay is January 2020. And this is the monthly market update. If you guys have not heard of me before, I have simple passive cash flow podcasts where it’s all about passive investing in real estate and potentially other non real estate items as we get deeper and deeper into the market cycle. So the first is a collection of different news articles that I’ve got it but I do this every year, those who aren’t familiar with what’s shown here. This is the Google keywords. You can look at keywords in Google and look up different trends and you can see how the world is what they’re searching for, throughout the different times. So I’ll go in here and I’ll screw around, I’ll put in the word recession, and obviously in the year 2008, everybody was searching for it. And it’s been nothing so far, except there was some kind of blurb here recently. I don’t know what that’s all about. But then, you know, you compare it to other words, like I put in in blue here, retirement investing and recession seems like people are starting to get back on the investing bandwagon after 2010. So, you know, a lot of you guys are looking for turnkey rentals or even single family homes in general, man, it’s just so competitive out there. retirements kind of been steady. I was in San Diego the other month and a guy from john burns gave a speech on market conditions. They’re like good slides in here. I just took this one to add in the presentation. Where do we expect the growth to be the strongest will it’s all the southern states and this is what I mentioned before. Peter likes little smiley face in United States. I think the further I had properties was Pennsylvania and Indianapolis. But I since sold those properties. Now my most northern property is up in the mines. And yeah, it’s a pain in the butt. You got all this pipes breaking and you know the trends are all everybody’s moving to the south. Maybe it has something to do with people getting older and they want to retire. But I believe it starts at markets. You’re looking at job growth in the southern states for a lot of blue collar jobs. And I think that’s what’s driving a lot of the Southern growth to certain markets. So a commercial headline here, Florida’s first LGBTQ senior housing breaks ground, kind of interesting, and I don’t want to get political or or get people upset or anything like here but so like you Like senior housing it is what it is. They say like seniors like to live in clusters with their own racial similarity people. So it’s just it’s interesting how these things develop like this, some Huntsville news here and some Arkansas news here, a couple secondary tertiary markets that are really starting to get on the radar. And I think Gone are the days where you can just wait for deals coming from Memphis, Kansas City, Indianapolis, you know all the perennial turnkey markets that have been pushed for almost a decade now. You’ve got to go you’ve got to go and uncover some higher hanging fruit these days. So Redstone Arsenal is in Huntsville are going to 50,000 workers by 2025 new plants new a class development there and spring for Arkansas. They just leased to BNSF logistics company that I’m very familiar with. The railroad company railroads are known to be leading indicators for the economy at least that’s how it was for when you were coming out of the recession in 2010 2012. They’re the ones who are are hauling a lot of the raw materials the lumber the chemicals to to industries to them process and make the final product top markets for multifamily rent growth from multi housing news look at that Huntsville Alabama and I’m a little upset because I don’t want anybody to know about little Huntsville This is probably the first month I’ve ever seen it on crack this list Las Vegas has been there but we all know kind of stay away from Las Vegas because it’s a very cyclical market. Pensacola was number one Phoenix was number two Huntsville was number three Las Vegas number number four and five was Portland, Maine, and that is 4% change year over year growth. The some news that we’ve been falling on the Fannie Mae Freddie Mac saga in past news, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, it becomes sort of public entities after the Great Recession of 2018 Kind of collapsed government stepped in and there’s there’s talks about them going back to private organizations, some articles here and we’ll have all this in if you guys go to simple passive cash flow calm slash investor letter, all these articles and links are found there if you would like to share that with other people, maybe you have a person who is not completely on board with investing. So Freddie Mac says here that they expect the housing market in 2020 and beyond the GSE also expects home prices growth to slow over the next few years with annual growth rates of 3.2% 2.9 and 2.1 respectively, from 2019 to 2021, respectively,

7:45
still growth but I think that

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everybody’s integrins that things are kind of slowing down but still moving forward. But definitely that Gone are the days of the four to 7% increases another article at the end offending me Freddie conservation ship by 2022 They’re saying that if all goes well 2021 2022 will see a very large public offering of these companies. What does that mean? Well, I think most investors will get freaked out because oh my god, I can’t find a Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac loan for my properties anymore. I wouldn’t worry about it. There’s always going to be some other way. And then this is the government. I’d be surprised if anything you mean happens by 2023. This is also happen. I think, earlier this year for our deals. We were talking to our direct Fanny lender, and they said this is in the summertime that they had hit their annual quarter or quota for 2019. And they weren’t gonna be lending anymore, but they had a meeting of the minds and then a couple weeks later, they get it all figured out and then they just move some things around and they they opened up the floodgates again, next article here on a year over year basis. The September starts of buildings with five or more units were 5.8% below September 2018. These two charts are showing the rents been pretty stable. Between a 2% to 4.3% rent increase and in relation to the CPI and then on the right side here is a chart of the multifamily starts and what that is, is new inventory coming online. Typically Class A builds are being built up ranging in 300,000 to 450,000. This last calendar year. Have you ever listened to a podcast or been in a seminar and too afraid to ask a slightly personal question, our mastermind will have an intimate feel where people are going through the program together and at their own pace if needed, in order to foster friendships. When I was learning and paying thousands of dollars for masterminds and mentorships the network however, hokey pokey as it sounds was a big part of it. What happens in the mastermind stays in the mastermind will use the BI weekly webinar sessions to the set concepts with real life examples here how someone else might implement something like infinite banking concept on a hotseat session. Our group will attract thought leaders to meet just with our exclusive group. We can get FaceTime and ask individual questions. Why? Because our group will be people who put their money where their mouth is and go out and make things happen as opposed to your local Rei Club, which is traditionally just a bunch of tire kickers and some sharks simple passive cash flow calm backslash journey to learn more.

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Us job gains surprisingly solid in October says real page and this comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So unemployment has gone down from almost 10% to now little under 4%. So almost like a straight line steadily going down. I mean, everybody’s working out there seems like monthly change in employment if they fluctuate, but I think the orange line shows the story right there all time. lows in unemployment now one of all time but been the lowest since about a decade, another Interesting market that I’ve been kind of looking at lately is Phoenix, Arizona. This article here Phoenix multifamily report is showing the metro sustain economic performance and demographic expansion continues to be reflected in the multifamily market. I’m watching it it’s a hot market and it typically is if you look back at the last correction and growth cycle it’s growing a lot now but i don’t know i mean, me personally, it’s very intriguing but yet it also fell a lot in the recession too, but I think I think it would work if you bought like a smaller multifamily in a higher price area like Arcadia submarket is super solid a class but if you push like a C class up to be of course that sounds good in theory, what sounds good in theory isn’t really found the ball out there. It’s very rare, but I think that would be a cool way to ride this wave. So the yardie matrix report is a pretty good news source for real estate and commercial real estate. Some of their takeaways is that the US economy is a glass half full glass half the The situation where the GDP growth in quarter three was okay at 1.9%. And we expect q4 to be a little lower us oil production is keeping inflation low below 2%. The yield curve, which has inverted been inverted for five months now, or we’re talking about is that people talk about the yield curve when the 10 year curve inverted and that was supposed to be marking the end of humanity and the markets as we know it, but we’re all still here saying it’s flattened following the September 18 and October 30. rate cuts the European and Chinese economies are still in poor shape. The US service sector labor market is extremely tight in wages continue to rise, manufacturing and farm sectors are struggling. There is a highly elevated risk of recession mid 2021, which that’s their opinion. I’m reading other news sources that are not free that don’t say that but I again, I think it’s good to go into deals with cash flow in mind. Just don’t get caught with your past. Down is kind of the same yardie continues to say here demographic and lifestyle changes are fueling strong demand for multifamily due to aging population increasing divorce rates and more younger people living at home contribute to smart demand. And overall housing production is unlikely to catch up with household formation. And this is what keeps putting upward pressure on rents and occupancy. And I think this is why you’re seeing pressure for rent control a lot of the California type of markets and it continues to talk about some more political risk more from yardie. They came out and it’s just another graph here of GDP growth. It’s been pretty much positive for a decade Consumer Confidence Index. I don’t know how they measure that, but right now it’s at all time highs for the last two decades and the Atlanta fed GDP q4 2019. forecast is 1.1. So they also brought up this interesting thought about inflation. Why is there no inflation and they’re saying the US oil is flooding the market now I only recently started to check oil I did an oil and gas deal by myself and the last year

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so now I’m actually know what the what the price of oil was before I didn’t really care. But now I’m kind of starting to pay attention to it. And that’s I think that’s indicative of like learning, right? Like if you wanted to learn Bitcoin go put in 500 bucks and you’ll start to pay attention to it. So I think what what they’re saying here is why isn’t inflation going up? Well, the US oil supply is kind of coming into the market and I think that’s what’s kind of I don’t know if I’m saying it right, but maybe it’s a cheaper support soil. For those of you guys doing Airbnb and short term rentals. I do have a simple passive casual Facebook group just for that but I’m not a big fan of doing the short term rental stuff and other bad news headline here Airbnb is banning all open invite parties and events says Newsweek hosts who attempt to circumvent this ban, and allow guests to throw large parties will be subject to consequences. Now I thought this was a great idea about 510 years ago right? If you’re pretty frugal and you want to downsize or have a small apartment you want to have friends over what do you do you get a cool big air b&b and you you trashed a place there or you have everybody come over there but apparently Airbnb dawns upon that five markets with the greatest rent loss so you don’t want to be on this list number one Midland Odessa they had a percent change of negative 4% number 200. Hawaii Gee, I wonder where that is. It’s it’s kind of funny because we don’t really have boy doesn’t really have seasons out here. Number three, Baton Rouge number four Scranton, number five Lafayette like Charles I’m in some fields and like Charles downs kind of alarming to me. So a lot of you guys sent me this article and I thought I’d put it in here because since you guys were interested in me, I didn’t really care. Number one, it still has to go through a lot of voting. But so the SEC is proposing to update accredited investor definition to increase access for investments to a minority portation what they’re doing is they’re adding this term sophisticated are accredited for accredited investors, you can sort of test your way into being accredited by doing like a series six or seven. They haven’t figured it out yet, nor have they approve this. But for those investors who are sophisticated, and maybe like half a million dollars net worth, you’re able to test to be a credit status. But again, I don’t know why this even matters because 97 to 90% of deals out there, if you go to the SEC website, you, you look, we actually spend the time and go look, the Egor database, 90 to 97% of those deals out there are 456 beat deals, which include non accredited investors, sophisticated investors, I don’t know why people always fight to get into five or six seed deals. In my opinion, the reason why they’re doing is they can’t raise the money from their list. That way, they have to go to some crowdfunding website and they have to kind of throw a hail mary for investors, but that’s just the way I look at it. crowdfunding websites just cost too much too. Obviously not for the investors but for the audience. Operator it just costs too much money to have money raised that way. I don’t know why any good operator would use that as a means of raising capital unless they’re desperate average new apartment size shrinks in the East and West Coast City says the national Ari investor in buildings developed since 2010. Apartments average roof size was 940 square feet that’s down from an average size of a roughly 1000 square feet in buildings created or before 2010 same prior to 2010 properties were more likely to feature a more prominent mix of two and three bedroom floor plans as opposed to studios in one bedrooms in this kind of goes hand in hand with like like in Hawaii, they there’s a lot of multi family households, a lot of people living under one roof. So if you guys have been keeping up with simple passive cash flow, calm content, I say that jokingly because it’s almost impossible to do it but these are the new articles that I created this month and the first one is transitioning to syndications and help Tips webinar that was a recent podcast and it’s also an a webinar video forum. So if you guys haven’t checked out this and passive cash flow YouTube channel, go ahead and search for that if you’re listening to this on the podcast just all be on video form for you to look at the cool pictures I spent all my time searching for you guys make it worthwhile for me check it on the YouTube channel. And so the next article here that I worked on was infinite banking with whole life insurance for 2020 when I have Chris miles as a guest, and he actually went through and showed a comparison of two policies, something that I know it’s never been done before, but I keep telling these guys like my podcast listeners, and my folks are super smart. Like you just can’t keep bringing the same old lame stuff. It’s boring. Number three here, new investor portal with three modules and the past deal webinars. So I launched the simple passive cash flow members portal, it is free, but you only get the first three modules of the course and you guys can do that by signing up for the newsletter. The investor club at simple passive cash flow calm slash club I also created this other 2020 goals lunch which after this meeting, we are going to stick around and we are going to go through this goals lunch exercise together and it looks like we have a good amount of people. So we can definitely do a lot of utilize these virtual breakout rooms to hair off and get some interaction within our tribe. So I’m kind of transitioning to my personal activities this past month, it gives my investors insight into my life and maybe gives you some ideas and some things you guys to work on. I break them up into six categories. And the first one is growth. So I spent a lot of December planning for 2020 I one of these ideas I had in my head was to finally do a multi day mastermind in Hawaii. And we’ve done one in Sonoma before and then last year we did one in would have been Phil Washington near Seattle but never in Hawaii because I had this living belief that nobody would fly out to Hawaii to see me but apparently a lot of people will these days or maybe it’s just Hawaii but you guys can check that out simple passive cash flow calm slash Hawaii three h UI three for details on that if you’d like to join us but personally I’ve implemented this new idea of profit first by Mike mccalla Wits he gave a keynote speech at our last mastermind and initially it’s kind of sounds kind of obvious almost elementary like yeah, obviously dummy like you pay yourself first right you put money aside first he brought this matrix here and I’m showing on the screen but it shows where you are in terms of how much money you bring in says real revenue range but that’s more of like

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instead of real revenue concert more profit. So let’s just say you’re bringing in zero to two quarter million dollars your profit you should put aside as pure profit is 5%. So you should put like, you know, out of 100 grand five grand into the bank or make Different bank account like me personally, I’m going to put that in my wife’s account and consider that gone. Hopefully that builds a little goodwill for me. So I can keep investing. The next category is owners pay. So this is where you pay yourself a salary for what you’re doing. And it’s different. It’s a little different from profit, but very similar. So they’re recommend in here 50% to set aside so your salary and these kind of go back to overview of this, like this is more for entrepreneurs, but I feel like all us real estate investors are sort of like entrepreneurs, where the trouble is like, when do you take profits off the table and actually start living instead of putting your nose to the grindstone and keep saving and putting more money into the next few in the next few in the next in the next year. This gave me a little bit more framework. The next category is taxes. So it’s 15% whether you make zero dollars or bazillion dollars, of course some investors making over $300,000 a year might say like what the heck, that’s 15% but I see it all the time. You know, that’s why you got to be investing. You got to get the deductions and then the bonus depreciation, that’s how you get down to that 15% number 2018, I paid 14%. And this past year, I paid 4% of taxes and all following the rules. So the IRS wants to automate, they can come and get it, you know, maybe they’ll learn a thing or two, when I figure or at least tell me how to do it the right way, operating expenses. Now, this is something that I took away like, and this is what I see as an investor as the, you know, putting back into your business or buying more properties. So they’re saying, the less you make, the less you should be putting back into your business or investing but for me, it was I was doing so many things by myself in terms of running the investment side and running the education company and then going to the gym every day and stuff like that, I realized that my overhead was super low. And I was working like 12 hour days. I mean, last night, I was up to like three o’clock in the morning doing some of this stuff, and that shouldn’t be the case and that’s going to probably going to lead to burnout. So going through this profit first exercise, I really lies that I need to allocate at least 30% to spending on things like I bought this drink this drink is like a fortune it’s like five or six bucks but as opposed to going to the store and buying all the vegetables a cold press it I just buy

23:13
it at some point time is more valuable than money. But if your net worth is under a quarter million dollars, I’m not talking to you, sir. You need to keep working and being a cheapskate In my opinion, second category or contribution I’m going to lead this goals seminar right after this. That’s kind of like give back to the community I do every year made it a lot better this year than last year. So there are some new things if you guys have done it in the past. So people like like to go through this exercise. It’s kind of a live experience. And we’ll be doing this also in Hawaii, but I’ve got a few other tricks up my sleeve to add to the content. But those of you guys who be sticking around the whole thing is playful out and I think you’ll get a lot out of it. third category is significance. So close couple of deals late last year, the hundred four unit and how Phil and then the 212 unit in reflections that I went and visited last time I was in Dallas last month and I played around with the golf cart. You guys saw me on social media playing around with that. Yeah, that’s that’s why I do what I do. Because I can play around with the quote unquote, other property is that what that is called approach on higher level guests and others and authors on the podcast. So what I’m looking to do, there’s find things that you guys are interested in. So if like, I’m having a more mindset person coming in, but not one of those fooful people, and I’m going to steer them in the right direction. But this is all simple passive cash flow. It shouldn’t take very long to do all this stuff. And I keep telling a lot of people in the mastermind, if you’re spending more than like, five, six hours a month, being a passive investor, you’re doing it the wrong way. You need to figure out how to do a lot more efficiently because you’re doing it wrong. And I get it like if it’s your first few months, you’re going to be consuming podcasts left and right, but there’s an easy way of doing it and then there’s a hard way of doing it. So if there’s any content out there that you want Want me to use the simple passive capital podcast to get certain guests to ask our questions and let me know. I’m always looking for feedback for the podcast to add more value out to you guys. category four is uncertainty. I’m trying to take some new mastermind groups and stop going to the normal real estate groupie ones out there which just usually has a bunch of newbies at it. And what’s been frustrating is I can’t tell who are like legit people because everybody is wearing their nicest suit and everywhere you go, it looks like the NBA Draft. So I’ve been trying some different mastermind groups outside of real estate and just traveling to new places meeting different people. I will be out to Huntsville earlier this month. If you guys want to come in, walk some properties with me out there, put that out to the mastermind group. I usually release my travel schedule a number five certainty to here because you always want to have certainty in your life. You can’t be all like get all your comfort zone nonsense all the time. So I went to Japan last week I was in Japan and just ate a bunch of food. It’s very comfortable. There. That’s, that’s what I did. My Christmas number six year love and connection schedule more meetings to this. I mean yesterday I talked to like eight people throughout the day but before the year gets moving and if we haven’t talked before let’s get on the phone and let’s connect simple passive cash flow calm slash talk before the year gets busy and I don’t have time for that anymore get signed up for that some resistance distraction barriers or noise that I’ve been dealing with, you know, with all the holidays, and I can’t seem to get anything done. Everybody just wants to have dinner things like the holidays are over. Also, you guys have any friends who are interested in simple passive cash flow getting that lifestyle and you’re tired of talking to them blue in the face, and they don’t listen to podcasts and things silly things like that recommend the e commerce and connect us via email and then I’ll pay out a referral fee. Let me do the hard work and educating and you can just have lunch with them 510 years from now when you’re both retired.

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other random things I bought I bought this cold pressed juice subscription. I guess that’s I don’t I guess that’s considered something where it’s super easy and maybe I should probably find something harder to do but that’s what I bought this month and it really buying myself any Christmas presents, unfortunately this year, but I’ve been reading this book, David Goggins a lot of people talk about this guy. So my good buddies, they listen to this podcast, he’s kind of crazy. He does ultra marathons and he went to buds like three times if you listen to like the first chapter, it’s all about his childhood how he’s abused and it’s actually kind of graphic and I listened to it on my audio book I don’t read it’s definitely shakes you up for sure. Here’s a link out to that and I’ve got all my other recommended books if you click this link in the show notes, which is at simple passive cash flow calm slash investor letter, and then the the easter egg here is that the passive investor axillary and mastermind is in your 2020 and if you guys are interested in that, please go to simple passive cash flow calm slash journey and if you just Interested in the E course, go to simple passive cash flow calm slash e course. But maybe we have time for a couple of questions. If you are any comments about some of the news we kind of went through earlier, we can do that now. Or we can go right into the goals seminar about the recession at the beginning, what could happen with a recession and the return on the syndication, say that the recession of three years and what will change in the expected return? Well, I mean, I don’t know specifically what deal you’re talking about. But every deal is different, right? And that’s why you can be investing in all types of things. For me, I go into investments that are producing cash flow today, so that there’s a little bit of buffer there, right. And I think a lot of people, they’ll have this mindset of I’m not going to invest because everybody’s saying it’s the top of the market cycle, right? But we don’t know it could go for another four years, Trump’s likely going to get reelected and this week could be on this part drunken party for another four years. You’re gonna miss out you’re missing out because you listen to somebody Random headline or some there’s a lot of fear base articles and new and new subscriptions out there and I wouldn’t get cash flow investing confused with fix and flipping real estate is all for it’s all considered real estate and I think that’s to me that’s hot that’s the difference that I see if it cash flows. That’s that’s a big indicator that I look for this website offers very general information concerning real estate for investment purposes every investor situation is unique. Always seek the services of licensed third party appraisers and inspectors to verify the value and condition of any property you intend to purchase. Use the services of professional title and escrow companies and licensed tax investment and or legal advisor before relying on any information contained herein information is not guaranteed as an everyday investment there is risk the content found here is just my opinion and things change and I reserve the right to change my mind. Above all else, do your own analysis and think for yourself because in the end, you’re the only person who is going to look out for your best interests.

Transcribed by https://otter.ai

#8 – 2019.12 – The SPC Greensheet

Dear investor,

It was a rather quiet month as we successfully closed two deals. It is a good season for taking it a little slower as we get ready for a busy 2020.

December Greensheet links

1) Web version
2) Video version

https://youtu.be/-pC0IK4Yp3E?sub_confirmation=1

  1. Legal Guide
  2. Talking with your Spouse
  3. My Last rental! – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/al4/
  4. Stop Being a Crazy Rich “Mom/Pop” Asian Investor w/ Elisa Zhang – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/ezmoney/
  5. Financial Freedom for Doctors – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/doctor/
  6. Mortgage lending questions for 2020 w/ Graham Parham – https://simplepassivecashflow.com/mortgage-lending-questions-for-2020-w-graham-parham/ 
  7. eCourse is now live – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/ecourse
  8. New investor portal with 3 free modules and past deal webinars

 

  1. Apple Commits $2.5B Toward California Housing Crisis – MHN 19.11.05 – “will commit $2.5 billion towards efforts to solve the severe lack of housing and affordable housing in the Golden State. Apple’s pledge follows similar announcements made recently by fellow big tech firms Facebook and Google.” – Microsoft kicked off the commitments in January, when it announced it would invest $500 million to affordable housing in the Seattle area. Five months later, Google doubled Microsoft’s pledge with a $1 billion investment in Bay Area housing and a plan to build 20,000 units. And just two weeks ago, Facebook announced it was committing $1 billion toward affordable housing efforts in California. – [Failure for markets and public policy to meet housing needs]
  2. 2019 Rent Growth – MHN 19.11.18 -“multifamily rent growth is back in the black, increasing $1 to an average of $1,476. Year-over-year rent growth remained at 3.2 percent and has been at least 3 percent for more than a year, according to a Yardi Matrix survey of 127 markets”
  3. Class B & C Investors Circling Secondary, Tertiary Markets – MHN 19.11.04 – “Fueled by strong employment and a growing group of renters by choice, investor exuberance for multifamily properties is spilling over into older properties as well as secondary and tertiary markets. Buyer older properties and renovating them, meanwhile, can offer better returns.”“Groups that would have been looking for the newest, shiniest Class A downtown asset now have modified their strategy to allow for Class B investments,” Pesant said.“I was talking to an investor the other day who bought an asset in Florence, S.C., because it was a 7 cap,” she said. “Everything is a 5 to 5.5 cap in secondary markets. They are going to tertiary markets to get yield and going down the quality curve.” – [Not a new trend for SPC investors but here is another viewpoint of the opposite. Lesson learned is know what you are investing in a specialize and operate well]
  4. 3Q19 UNITED STATES MULTIFAMILY CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT
  5. Jersey City Joins Push to Block Airbnb – MHN 19.11.08 – “The new rules in Jersey City bar renters from listing their apartments on the site as well as owners who don’t live on-site.” – [Another reason why I don’t like STRs and prefer blue collar rentals due to this demand]
  6. Multifamily Rents Rise as Vacancy Tightens – MHN 19.11.08 – ” Effective rents for institutional properties grew by 3.3 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, up 1.6 percent over the previous quarter, as low unemployment rates and ongoing job growth fueled healthy absorption.The vacancy rate declined by 20 basis points year-over-year to 5.8 percent, even as apartment stock continues to expand by 2 percent a year, according to a new report by the commercial real estate finance firm. More than 4,400 buildings providing 797,000 units are currently under construction” – [This is a big of general data on the whole US market which is not really useful but in the big picture the demand is there]
  7. China Trade deal update 19.11.11 – Home loans started higher but were “saved” midweek when reports came out suggesting a delay of a “phase one” trade deal signing. Bonds and home loan rates like bad news, so a disruption or delay of the trade signing was the reason for rates to improve off the worst levels midweek. Word that both the U.S. and China would roll back tariffs as a deal gets put together was very good news which pushed Stocks to all-time highs at the expense of Bonds and home loan rates. Loan on same level they were at back on July 31st when the Fed cut rates for the first time in 10 years.
  8. Co-working space
  9. More than half of the world’s richest investors see a big market drop in 2020, says UBS survey – CNBC 19.11.12 – “UBS surveyed more than 3,400 high net worth investors with at least $1 million in investable assets. Fifty-five percent of respondents expect a significant drop in the markets at some point in 2020. The super rich have increased their cash holding to 25% of their average assets, the survey showed.” – [You are not the rich if your net worth is under 1M… I found it interesting that they still had 75% of their money in the game despite this outlook. This also means not dead equity too.]
  10. us economy chart corporate and household debt
  11. Hillwood to Develop 1 MSF Amazon Fulfillment Center in North Mississippi – REBusiness Online 19.11.19 – “The facility will house picking, packing and shipping operations for larger customer orders and create 500 new full-time jobs. According to The Clarion-Ledger, the new facility will be located within Hillwood’s Legacy Park, a 266-acre business park in DeSoto County. The Class A industrial campus has proximity to U.S. Highway 78 and Tennessee Highway 385; the BNSF and Norfolk Southern intermodal terminals; Memphis International Airport; FedEx Air and Ground hubs; and a UPS sort hub.” – [You need to start getting creating and looking into tertiary markets]
  12. CRE Industry Preps for New EB-5 Regulations – CPE 19.11.20 – “The new minimums have been adjusted for years of inflation. The minimum investment in assets in a targeted employment area will increase by 80 percent, from $500,000 to 900,000, and the standard minimum investment will rise by the same percentage, going from $1 million to $1.8 million.”
  13. https://www.apartmentlist.com/rentonomics/2019-millennial-homeownership-report/

 

I made some revisions with new happiness study data.

 

Plan for 2020.

Start to make key hires to help group SPC.

 

https://simplepassivecashflow.com/spouse/

Tips to have this difficult conversations

$216M Real estate controlled, 3,000 units, $24M diverted from Wall Street, 226 LIVE investors

 

Stop going to REI events and start going to private entrepreneurial and coaching groups.

 

Taking a look at asset management systems for improvement.

 

Used a $100 gift card to nice restaurant

 

My coffee sucks I might consider an espresso machine once I use all 144 remaining K-Cup pods.

I don’t like to hear about other peoples jobs because most time its just complaining. If you don’t like it do something else.

I spent twenty dollars for this voice over.

Book Report – George Clason – Richest Man in Babylon

Complete #LaneHack list

Passive Investor Accelerator & Mastermind

-Mostly Accredited high paid professionals to connect with personally and build your own network (currently 45 members)
-27 modules of content in a closed membership site
-Bi-weekly Zoom Video calls (25+ on-demand recordings a year plus all library of past calls)
-Now with a membership coordinator check-in’s to help facilitate what you are doing and connect you with the right people in the group (if you are shy)

Learn more and apply before out max head count is reached and 2020 pricing takes effect – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/Journey

If can do me a favor… If you get a chance people review leave a review for the podcast on iTunes (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/simple-passive-cashflow/id1118795347) and email simplepassivecashflow.com to a friend.

 

 

Unknown Speaker 0:00
Are you busy professional overwhelmed and misled by the stock market dogma saving and work into your 70 I like to help you out and get to know you a little bit better with a quick 15 minute strategy call. Hurry as I’m only opening my schedule for a limited time as I take it easy the rest of the holiday season and get going for a busy New Year. But good call by going to simple passive

Unknown Speaker 0:20
cash flow calm slash talk.

Unknown Speaker 0:22
Hey guys, I’m traveling at the moment going down to the collective genius mastermind at San Diego then off the Huntsman Dallas. I’m really enjoying the real life of a professional investor without that day job. This week, you’re going to be listening to my monthly market update webinar, which you can join us live by joining our email list or check out the YouTube video online. And while you’re there, subscribe to our YouTube channel which we’re giving away free course subscription for YouTube subscribers. Also, if you want to check out the video form of this webinar, go to simple passive cash flow comm slash investing letter aloha Maybe we’ll try to rent them out. And then he became one real investor maybe you guys haven’t subscribed to the podcast simple passive cash flow comm check it out. And also check out the YouTube channel. I’ve been getting a lot better adding more videos there to you guys want a free version of my ebook, text ebook 25873176099 and join our Facebook community if you have not already. So our first article here is Apple committing 2.5 billion toward California housing crisis. So they’re saying that they will commit $2.5 billion towards efforts of solving the obvious affordable housing issue in Northern California. I used to work for a city and these are Always there’s always a negotiation to give permits. That’s the leverage a municipality has over big companies like this. And you know, these big companies, they would like to build infrastructure like sidewalks, curbs, and not have to do ridiculous the tension tanks under new construction and different stormwater. Anyway. The municipality has leverage over them. So this is a way that that the business of how it can kind of negotiate things for the community. And it seems like it’s a Oh, it’s a wonderful thing that Apple has done, but no, they probably it’s a deal deal between them and the municipality just like how Google did this. And Microsoft had first hand view on what Microsoft did in their city. And this is this kind of shows failures for markets and public policy to meet the housing needs. I wouldn’t want I live in Northern California, unless I had a huge tech salary. Yep, that’s a, it’s in the chat window cronyism. That’s what you’re talking about. Next article here 3019 rent growth chart here from mid November. This one they released pretty often multifamily rent growth is back and in the black, increasing $1 to an average of 1400 bucks about per month. The takeaway is that the rent growth are still happening. Class B and C investors are circling secondary, tertiary markets. And this is no secret to a lot of us simple passive capital investors targeting non primary markets for the cash flow and not having to compete with dumb money, to say the least. So there and I’m co here. It’s fueled by Strong employment and a growing group of renters by choice, investor exuberance for multifamily properties is spilling over into older properties as well as secondary and tertiary markets buyer older properties and renovating them, meanwhile, can offer better returns. I think we all know this. But you know, not everybody in the world thinks like this. there on the bottom, we had a chart that I took from the last apartment.

Unknown Speaker 4:30
You know, those are the typical class BNC rents that you’re going to see in a lot of the secondary and tertiary markets, anywhere from 550 a month, up to $800 a month. Definitely a culture shock to a lot of us that live in poverty markets where you’re used to seeing houses cost 300 $400,000 or more, and paying $2,000 a month rent for a little studio. For those of you who want to kind of come back to this presentation you guys can do this later, but this is the third quarter 2019, United States multifamily capital markets, they do a good job of just running down the high level of what’s kind of happening across the nation. And it’s interesting to track this, each quarter that each quarter no surprise yields are compressed nine basis points, which isn’t very much year over year. And that’s consistent with what I’m feeling, but it’s nothing like I think a lot of people are like, Oh, no, the sky is falling, and will never be able to get yield. There’s yield there. The gap is closing very slow, slowly, but it’s still there. But you’re not buying the average. You know, they come up with this number where they average probably million deals out there. You’re trying to find that one needle in the haystack and, you know, if you’re patient, you’ll find it rent growth. You know, just like the last publication I just mentioned, they’re saying that the rent growth increased 3.2% nationally. Which is up 60 basis points over last year article about those impacting those doing Airbnb and short term rentals. Jersey City joins the push the block Airbnb, where what they’re doing is they’re going to borrow renters from listing the apartments on the site as well as owners who don’t live on site. And this is another reason why I don’t like short term rentals at all. I prefer blue collar workforce housing, long term rentals, just boring stuff. article titles multifamily rents rise as a vacancy, Titans, effective rents for institutional properties and what they mean by institutional properties are like these are the big ones typically the a class because it’s easier for them to get data on this. They’re saying rents grew 3.3% which is, you know, mimics kind of what we very close to what the last news source mentioned. Up 1.6% over the previous quarter. So that’s almost half of the annual growth in the last quarter, which makes sense because right growth is pretty cyclical. When you get into these cold or slow months, you don’t have as much demand on people moving. So that makes total sense from a logical standpoint. vacancy rates declined by 20 basis points to 5.8%, even as the apartment stock continues to expand, so they’re building new units by 2% a year. More than 4400 buildings providing almost 800,000 units are currently under construction. But remember, this is Big Data comprised of the whole United States, which is insightful yet not really useful, because when you’re an investor, you’re trying to key in not only in a certain market but a sub market. You know, is it going To be West Irving as opposed to just the Irving Texas for example or the DFW market. I took a couple pictures here of you know, everybody loves these like the top 10 happiest city, which they said it was Miami, Florida, Oakland Austin send it to San Jose, Philadelphia, la Boston, Honolulu, Portland, San Diego. And America’s top 10 dynamic cities which is San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Aurora, Grand Prairie, Oklahoma, Fort Worth, San Jose, Atlanta, Georgia, Miami, Florida, where they get this data. I don’t have a clue. Me I don’t really need much into it. But people like these type of news articles and so that’s why I put it in here.

Unknown Speaker 8:51
Other than the 27 weeks of curated content for the passive investor, the new mastermind will offer bi weekly power calls with the following format. first week of every month we will dial in on being a direct investor for simple passive cash flow 1.0 I call it which is getting your first rental negotiating sourcing operation etc. second week of every month we will discuss holistic wealth building topics or what I call simple passive cash flow two point O plus, which is holistic Wealth Management syndications private placements, tax legal lifestyle design etc. Get a sense of this forum by checking out the guide to taxes video at simple passive cash flow calm backslash tax, I’ll be honest, some things I can’t see the general public because it’s too personal. And it’s not to say bad things about others. Unless you’re in the mastermind. One rule we have is what happens in the mastermind stays in the mastermind. To get in go to simple passive cash flow.com backslash journey.

Unknown Speaker 9:51
Don’t be left out and join the day. If you’ve

Unknown Speaker 9:54
been waiting on the sidelines. This is your moment and not to be taken by an institutionalized education

Unknown Speaker 9:59
program.

Unknown Speaker 10:01
update on the whole China trade deal as of November 11 2019. Now the home loan started higher. But we were kind of save middle of the month when the reports came out suggesting that a delay of a phase one trade deal was about to be signed. So it was a disruption to relay to the trade citing was the reason for the rates to improve off the worst levels mid week. There was worried that both the United States and China would roll back terrorists as a deal with push through. And this push stocks to all time highs as the expensive the bonds and the home loan rates low and on the same level. They were back on July 31. When the Fed cut their rates for the first time in 10 years. co working spaces a little bit if you haven’t been watching the news and heard about headlines About the company we work. But essentially, if you read between the lines and here’s my summary of the whole thing, we work along with many other tech companies, their venture capital, and they have a lot of money backing them, which can power a lot of marketing and make a company look good. But like in any business, if you don’t have organic marketing, to create new customers for you, your business will likely fail. It just matter depends on how much artificial capital you can burn up to keep this thing going. And just like any business, you have to kind of feed the beast until you kind of take off and go on your own. But we work they kind of got to a point where they realize that they weren’t making money doing this and then they had a another infusion of cash. Here of sort of the percentage of CO working spaces on a graph. I’m still less than 4% even in Manhattan, and where the mark the vacancy rates are. For those real estate usage, the trend line is showing the higher amount of vacancy. The lower amount of percent coworking. So New York, Manhattan, Brooklyn, they have a low vacancy rate, which means a high demand. And that’s why they have more percent of CO working space. But most of these, these cities follow the trend line. I’m not really too many outliers here. More than half of the world’s richest investors see a big market dip drop in 2020. So the UPS survey and this is from the good old CNBC news station, whether that’s good or bad or not. So they’re saying they surveyed 3400 high net worth investors How they got those people? And what the heck kind of high net worth investors are going to sit on the phone for four minutes and answer surveys My other question, but they said 55% of respondents expected a significant drop in the market at some point in 2020. And they also said that the super rich have increased their cash holdings to 25% of their average assets. Put this in here mainly to kind of show people a little measuring stick, like you have high net worth investors or people here, maybe. And they’re still not sitting on any more than a quarter of their net worth in cash. And here’s my message if you’re not rich, if your net worth is under $1 million, $1 million is really not that money. And oftentimes, I see those under $1 million net worth sitting on a large huge majority like almost 75% money in cash or stuck in lazy debt equity in their home or other rental properties paid off. I mean, you would think it’d be the opposite right high net worth investors should have more cash on hand because they have you know, they don’t need to get yield, they don’t need cash flow to eat, eat from that was my takeaway that 25% level for cash flow sitting on the sidelines from some random survey of of high net worth people. Me I’m kind of more like, I don’t know like 10% or something like I invest aggressively maybe part of that is because I feel like I have good deal flow. But I invest in majority cash flowing investments that are cash flowing today.

Unknown Speaker 14:50
So this next chart here is taken from Arbor who is a direct Fannie Mae Freddie Mac lender. Orange graph is showing the court debt which is going up. And the household debt which peaked in 2008 2009, obviously, is on the decline, which is, in my opinion a good thing. This is similar to the levels of two top 2000 were corporate debt was at 46% ish. And household debt was a little over 70% hill-wood to develop a 1 million square foot Amazon fulfillment center in North Mississippi, put this in here as just a you know a lot of people they look at all these headlines of this building going into Seattle or this building going in San Francisco, frankly don’t really care about any of this stuff I look at more of these type of articles here is like a class and choke campus going in. Next, the US Highway 78. More importantly next BNSF and Norfolk Southern Railroad lines. This is a similar play to people going into Memphis for the old FedEx and UPS, transit hubs. You know, these days you’re looking for yield you can’t really go to secondary markets your Kansas City’s your Memphis says because they’ve been picked over since 2012 2016. You’ve really got to kind of go into these more tertiary markets that nobody ever really is talking about. Not saying that this is a good market to invest in, but maybe look into some of these market like in northern Mississippi. Again, it is in DeSoto County CBR he industry preps for the new Eb five regulations. So those of you who aren’t aware of Eb five, this is the old way to if you’re International, you want to become a US citizen. Well, you can pay to play because we’ll take your money and we’ll give you citizenship so we can get money. You have to invest in an asset that My understanding is that it helps the United States economic or its benefits America, I see it as sort of like a donation in a way to get citizenship. But they used to be, they’re going to increase the target that you you’re supposed to put up from $500,000 to $900,000. And it’s supposed to pace inflation. And the standard minimum investment will rise by the same percentage going from 1 million to $1.8 million. So I’ve heard of a lot of people coming into the country this way. Again, a lot of the international money people coming in, they’re not the 1% of their country. They’re like the point 01 percent. So just plunking down a million dollars on something like that is think about it if you’re going to the airport, and you want the Fast Pass, but the Fast Pass is way better. But it was 10 times the price and money was no object to you, you do it. These charts are talking about millennial renters. They ask these millennials, why do you expect to always rent? And some of the excuses? I mean, some of the the reasons where I can’t afford to buy a house was 69%. The next one is I like the flexibility that renting provides. Third with 37% is I prefer to avoid maintenance and edit costs. And then last summer was buying a phone is financially risky. And then they asked millennials who plan to buy your house. Why are you waiting? What’s your excuse? And 70% said I can’t afford to buy right now. 33% said I’m not ready to settle down yet. 24% said I’m waiting to get married probably to share the costs and the Then there’s another chart that they put in here and they split up the different demographics. Not going to go into that you guys can check that out later by going to simple passive cash flow, comm slash investor letter. And you guys can download these slides there.

Unknown Speaker 19:17
Those are the news articles I dug up this month. Here are the new simple passive cash flow articles and podcasts that I created this month. The first one was a lot of my investors, they they might be totally on board with financial freedom and investing in alternative assets but they may have a reluctant spouse in an In fact, this is in most cases call this reluctant spouse syndrome. So I pinged and surveyed a few people in my tribe and put down some useful tips on how to get your spouse on board. possibly create some kind of Midway there, too. You guys can check out that article at simple passive cash flow comm slash spouse. I’m starting to build a legal guide just like the tax guide, tax guide you can find a simple passive cash flow calm slash tax. But this legal guide that I’ve been creating a simple passive cash flow comm slash legal. I’m not a tax attorney I’m not a CPA, I’m not a lawyer. But here are some notes that I’ve been keeping for myself that you guys can also review I have my last rental property on the market and I am showcasing what’s happening with that one at simple passive cash flow calm slash A l four l for because it’s in Alabama and it was my fourth rental in Alabama. I interviewed at least it’s on you guys can check out that interview there. Also I interviewed a doctor who is doing short term rentals. And if you’re a doctor, I would go to that simple passive cash flow. COMM slash doctor and there’s all other tidbits and thoughts for doctors and you know if you’re a new Doctor, what are some tips to for financial freedom there and and other mindsets even if you’re probably a higher paid profession I would recommend checking that out. For those of you who are still buying turnkeys we did a webinar last week where we talked about the mortgage lending requirements in 2020. And moving forward with Graham can check that out simple passive cash flow comm slash turnkey. The E course went live on Black Friday for those of you who took advantage of the that special launch pricing. It’s that simple passive cash flow calm slash e course. And if you guys buy that we can credit back to the price you paid if you choose to go into the mastermind, at any point, we currently have 55 members in there. We do bi weekly zoom calls, we do networking similar to how we kick this meeting off here. Great way to get around. accredited investors quick going to The local Ria or the free Facebook group. So the forums, you’re just going to find a bunch of book people there. And I launched the new investor portal for those of you who are in deals with me to access it, you have to create a login, then you can access to all the monthly updates there just in case you miss an email. Once we all get a lot of emails these days, and if you guys want to sign up, go to the website, and you create a join the deal club, you guys get access to the first three modules of the E course those of you who are not verified with me and haven’t set up a call with me yet. After you do that, you can get access to the past do webinars to review and further your learning. They’re just going to go over some updates that I’ve been doing personally. Man November was a quick month so I think put this down really quickly. I’ve had a little bit of downtime to plan for 2020 I’m starting to make key hires to help the group and simple passive cash flow, notably a membership director for the mastermind group. So what we’re doing now is we’re going through all the members and kind of building a little matrix and who’s doing what, who we can connect with who, and then we’re going to kind of forced the matchmaking to happen. contribution. I felt like the whole addressing this reluctant spouse syndrome was a big issue I needed to sort of help people with. The graphic I have on screen is what we’re all trying to avoid. This guy was wearing like one of those Apple watches and it just happened to be the day that he got fired. So about 10 o’clock, he got the news that he got laid off his beats per minute, went up spiked up 220 from a resting heart rate of 85. It kinda went down. He had a meeting with HR Little around two o’clock and it spiked to

Unknown Speaker 24:04
110. And then he left work at 530 went right back up as probably he went home because he didn’t want to tell a spouse, that his supposedly job that was keeping their family alive was no more. And then he went to bed at 110 beats per minute. So you don’t want that to happen. And that’s why you invest in alternative assets and you do something that everybody else doesn’t do. Not because it’s going to create the future one, but it’s going to avoid situations like this. And maybe that’s the pain that willingness pain will speak to you more than the financial rewards. Some cool things that I get to talk about here, my significant slide, I counted up the real estate control $216 million. Guess that’s almost a quarter billion 3000 units or so 24 million diverted from Wall Street from Other passive investors in the squee. So we are currently up to 226 live investors today.

Unknown Speaker 25:10
Thank you, for especially you guys have been waiting for quite a few deals. This next side is uncertainty because you’re always trying to find ways to make things a little bit a surprise in life as I’m planning 2020 for myself, I made it a goal not to go to real estate events where I know everybody and it’s like cheers and everybody knows my name. And I don’t have to get out my comfort zone. Because everybody already knows me. I’m going to go to start to go to more private entrepreneur type of events where nobody knows me and different coaching groups just do something a little bit different way I’m going to get certainty in my life. I’m starting to look at like doing asset management, taking that over from a third party and some of our deals and doing this in house. I don’t know why I didn’t do this in the past. Maybe because I didn’t like doing it as a job as a project manager, but I’m sick and tired of seeing these accountants or computer programmers or non professionals be project managers when this is exactly what I did at my job for 10 years. And maybe even though I didn’t like it, or I didn’t think I was that good, I can do a lot better than all these amateurs. What I did for relationships and connections and love, I took my wife out, and we use the hundred dollar gift card that somebody gave us. It took some time for that. So I’m always trying to identify what is the resistance in my business in my life, and try and eliminate those. And we had a webinar in our mastermind going over INTERNATIONAL TRUST. And if you think LLCs and two layers LLC are cool, this is going to blow your mind. It’s all about getting over charging order protection. This fraudulent conveyance much better Domestic trust. Again I have a lot of those notes and simple passive cash flow calm slash legal. You guys want to check it out and and part of this is like there’s no worse feeling than being in a lawsuit and even if it’s a stupid one, that somebody else can control your assets and do like a charging order, which is basically freeze your stuff and stop your ability to find future deals, or even getting a home loan for yourself or you maybe even getting a credit card. Creating complex events, legal entities is a way of getting some leverage in those situations. And for me, it’s money well spent. Other other frivolous things. I think my coffee sucks. I’m going to stop using that key cup after my lot of 144 remaining k cup pods are gone. Probably gonna get one of those $50 special machines and Thanksgiving is always tough for me because I don’t like to hear about people’s jobs because is most times is people complaining all the time. My attitude is if you don’t like your job then do something about it. Thanksgiving is over, thankfully. And Christmas is here and I bought myself some air pots. These are finally the good ones actually stay in New Year. And gunk doesn’t get stuck inside of them. Some lessons learned I’m reading. Well, I just finished this last night The Richest Man in Babylon. A lot of people have recommended this book to me in the past for the first couple of chapters, there was a big takeaway. It was like this really rich guy, he’s he’s teaching this this younger guy who’s not rich at all like a man How do I get rich and then the old guy tells them put aside 10% of your money and go and buy assets or go into deals that make you money. One of the first deals he goes into he goes to like the blacksmith who’s going to buy like spices from wherever. And then the old man is like, all right, well, that’s cool. Like Yeah, that can possibly make you money for why the hell are you investing with the blacksmith that doesn’t know anything about spices? And then you know, that’s the lesson learned the guy didn’t make any money. But eventually he moves and he goes into a better deal. And now he starts to see the this proven concept. And at that point, after I read like the first 10 minutes of this book, it’s written in Old English, sort of like the Bible, and it totally puts me to sleep, which is why I didn’t get anything out of the book, and I eventually gave up on it. But now I can say I read it now when people talk about it, because they get the gist of it. Well, thanks for joining. And we’ll see you guys next month on another monthly update right?

Unknown Speaker 30:01
This website offers very general information concerning real estate for investment purposes every investor situation is unique. Always seek the services of licensed third party appraisers and inspectors to verify the valuing condition of any property you intend to purchase. Use the services of professional title and escrow companies and licensed tax investment and or legal advisor before relying on any information contained herein information is not guaranteed as an every investment there is risk. The content found here is just my opinion and things change and I reserve the right to change my mind. Above all else, do your own analysis and think for yourself because in the end, you’re the only person who is going to look out for your best interests.

 

#7 – 2019.11 – The SPC Greensheet

 

Dear investor,

We wrapped up a couple of big deals recently!

I just got back from Maui where I gave this talk (video replay). And San Francisco where I gave this talk (video replay).



Something about going on a short retreat puts things in perspective…

This year was a great year with the following Hui Deal Pipeline Club deals:
1) 309-Unit, Class-C+ Apartment @El Paso, Texas
2) 207-Unit, 5 Mobile Home Parks @Gulf Shores, AL
3) 80-Unit, Class B Apartment @Gulfport, MS

4) 104-Unit, Class B Apartment @Huntsville, AL
5) 212-Unit, Class B+ Apartment @ Irving, TX

Thank you all for your support and joining me on this journey!

I will be “taking it easy” these next couple months.

If you have anyone that is looking to get out of volatile stock market which seems to get worse as Trump and the Fed battle behind the scenes… please connect us via email*.

A referral to a friend/family is the best compliment. It is my mission to get people to financial freedom.

As we have seen when I posted my 2018 taxes and paying 4%… its un unfair game.

Now some rest and relaxation.

November Greensheet links

1) PDF Version
2) Web version
3) Video version

  1. Untold Stories of being a W2 Lawyer (#169)
  2. $1,700 passive a month w/ 7 rentals w/ Realliferentals.com
  3. Cap Rates in Real Estate Explained (#171)
  4. SEC Advisory
  5. Legal Strategies for Real Estate Investors w/ Scott Smith #172
  6. Live Coaching call (Non-Accredited $300k net-worth) #173

 

  1. Update from Mr. Duncan – QE4 (inflation) has begun (From QT) – New round of asset purchases through $190B Repos
  2. 2019 Top US Markets Reports for Large Multifamily Report – Arbor – [I did not find this report one bit useful as I like secondary and tertiary markets that do better than these top tier markets… and cashflow]
  3. 2019 Metro-Level Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report – Arbor – [Good discussion on differences between caps on tier 1/2/3]
  4. Blackstone Bets $4.3B on Bellagio – CPE – 19.10.16 – “MGM Resorts International have entered into an agreement to acquire the Bellagio in Las Vegas… hotel and casino development has been limited since 2010. In another deal that emphasizes Las Vegas’ healthy market, MGM Resorts entered into an agreement to sell Circus Circus Las Vegas for $825 million to real estate mogul Phil Ruffian.” – [Illustrates what happens to assets as they age]
  5. ALN 2019 Q3 Review – [Good write ups on high level of each market. Again remember its more able submarkets than overall markets]
  6. Repurchase Agreement (Repo): form of short-term borrowing for dealers in government securities. In the case of a repo, the dealer sells government securities to investors, usually on an overnight basis, and buys them back the following day.Repo markets are generally used by banks and financial institutions to fund short term/ overnight liabilities using assets such as U.S. Treasuries, securities or other intangible property as collateral. It is where financial institutions go when they need short term cash, in exchange for some collateral, like Treasuries or mortgage securities, for a short-term loan. Rather than having to sell off assets to pay or fund liabilities, institutions can use these overnight markets to access liquidity. The Federal Reserve has provided liquidity through injections of funds ($200B) into the Repo markets in order to calm them.
  7. Vacancy Falls, Rents Rise for Manufactured Homes – MHN 19.10.10 – “steady cash flows, the potential for higher returns and the reduced management headaches compared to other property types. The scarcity of product means that large top-tier community that do hit the market will attract multiple offers from a range of buyers, driving sale prices higher. Marcus & Millichap finds that cap rates for these assets tend to fall in the 4 to 5 percent range but can be as low as 3 percent.Manufactured housing REITs are surging.” – [MHPs are an endangered specie. Dumb money is definitely going into multifamily apartments at this point and its smart to diversity to get away from the crowd]
  8. Escape Illinois – Mish Talk  19.10.05 – [There always was a lack of reliable turnkey providers in Chicago. Plus it also has bad landlord laws. Population is declining too] 
  9. Retailers Look to Capture the ‘Laptops and Lattes’ Crowd – REBusiness – 19.09.24 – [Interesting look at retailing trends, parking at 45 min gyms, food/fun/fitness/fashion]
  10. Worst states for taxes – Market Watch – 19.10.5 –  
  11. November 2019 Rent Report – Apartment List – 19.11.2 – “Our national rent index ticked up by 0.1 percent from September to October. Over the three month period from March to June rents increased by 1.3 percent, the fastest growth over any three month period since the summer of 2017. However, since June, rents have been essentially flat, representing an early end to the summer spike in rent prices.” – [Normal seasonality throughout year] 
  12. 5 Markets With the Greatest Occupancy Loss – MHN – 19.10.23 – [One of our projects is cashing out in Chattanooga and we did not see this down trend what so ever? Fake News!]
  13. Vacancy Falls, Rents Rise for Manufactured Homes – MHN News – 19.10.10 – “Vacancy in manufactured home communities is tightening across all regions of the U.S., as renters increasingly turn to low-cost housing options, according to a new national market report by Marcus & Millichap” – [Thats why we like MHPs – more info]
  14. Holiday Shoppers Plan to Spend 4 Percent More This Year, NRF Survey Shows – RE Business Online – 19.10.29 – [Lets wait and see what happens] 
  15. NOI vs. Capex Yield – CPE 19.11.2 – “Variables such as age, location and property type can influence how much capex is required to operate an asset”
  16. Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 25, 2019) 

I made some revisions with new happiness study data.

 

Two speaking engagements where I gave this talk (video replay).

And San Francisco where I gave this talk (video replay).

 

I am on a mission to give the secrets of the wealthy to everyone.

I recently used an S-Corp so I can start having 14 corporate meetings a year at my home.

Here is some of the work I put in to determine the fair market value of me renting out my home to my self per day.

  

 

Decided to hire some staff and take myself out of the business.

Simplepassivecashflow.com/jointeam if you have any impressionable family members who would like to start off on the right foot.

 

Decided to shut it down for 2019 and get ready for 2020!

 

Plan a vacation to Japan!

 

40-50 emails a day so I decided to filter ALL emails to be read later in the day so I only have to deal with a dozen must reply emails in my first hour of the day.

 

 

I broke down and bought Youtube Premium

Book Report – Gary Vaynerchuk – Crushing It

Complete #LaneHack list

Passive Investor Accelerator & Mastermind

-Mostly Accredited high paid professionals to connect with personally and build your own network (currently 45 members)
-27 modules of content in a closed membership site
-Bi-weekly Zoom Video calls (25+ on-demand recordings a year plus all library of past calls)

Learn more and apply before out max headcount is reached and 2020 pricing takes effect – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/Journey

If can do me a favor… If you get a chance people review leave a review for the podcast on iTunes (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/simple-passive-cashflow/id1118795347) and email simplepassivecashflow.com to a friend.