November 2021 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/pHJuJvksZU4

Hey, what’s up folks. We are live. This is the November 2021 monthly market update where I quickly go over what is going on is some of the news out there impacting investors, mostly real estate investors. If you guys want to get a hold of my new book coming out next month, I’ll go to simple, passive to cashflow.com/book.

And shoot me an email if you guys are able to help. Need some folks to help me out with the launch. Give me a review, I’ll buy you a book. We also have the the audio version there at simplepassivecashflow.com/book. So help out the cause get the good word out, we appreciate it guys.

 

And we’ll get started.

If you guys haven’t met before my name is Lane Kawaoka. Currently 6,500 rental units need to update this slide and used to be an engineer. And I show you guys how to escape the rat race, investing in alternative investments and stop doing stuff like buying a house to live in, paying off your debt. Instead buying real assets that produce cashflow and grow for you.

You guys haven’t yet checked out the free podcast, simple passive cashflow, passive real estate investing found on all the platforms. And if you’re tuning in on the YouTube version of this with the podcast version. You want to see the slides that we have check out the YouTube channel and also check out the podcast version.

But before we get going, if you guys have any comments or anything, please type it into the comment box below, we’ll try and answer it if it comes up. So the first thing here, you know what I see a lot of people doing and what I try to do as part of the simple passive cashflow. Just to get people from being victims of the consequences of their own action.

This little picture of this dog who got stuck under a picnic table and it restricted his movement because he went all over and it’s got the leash tangled under all the legs of the table and again, those things are buying a house to live in.

I think if you’re in credit card debt, you need a way to force savings account for your self. Yeah, buy a house because it’s a forced piggybank, but for most of you guys listening, you guys have good financial skills. You guys are the max out, your 401k crowd. Push your money to investments and not necessarily a house to live in.

I still rent today. Next thing is investing in your 401k and getting that company match thinking that’s all cool. And maybe the company matches okay. I guess it’s free money, you’re investing in my opinion, garbage retail investments turbo tax, you guys are just still turbo tax.

You got to get with it, spend some money other than free and, get some deductions in there. But if you don’t have any real estate, go through turbo tax because you’re not going to get any deductions in that thing anyway. And then doing a Roth IRA or any kind of IRA, I just don’t really see the point to if you’re investing in real estate because real estate gives you passive losses.

And that’s what you can use to effectively shelter your passive income. And why are we doing this? Why are we going into good assets? Will inflation is upon us. If you guys haven’t seen here, we’re looking at a little picture if you guys have seen how much a pound of coffee costs in Walmart and it’s not $6.79 anymore.

If you look again, it’s $8.49, the cost of inflation is around us. So here we go. Let’s get into some of the headlines here. Wallet hub released a couple of reports of some of the safest cities in America, and those are Columbia, Maryland, South Burlington, new Hampshire, Yonkers, New York, Madison, Wisconsin, Portland, Maine Warwick, Rhode Island, Raleigh, North Carolina, Burlington.

Think that’s for bond. Winston-Salem North Carolina. Now some of the unsafe cities in America, Lubbock, Texas, south St. Petersburg, Florida, Anchorage, Alaska, Birmingham, Alabama, Baton Rouge, Memphis, Tennessee, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, San Bernardino, California, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, Missouri.

Some of the people who aren’t sophisticated investors might say yeah, I don’t want to invest in these least safe cities, but I had four rentals in Birmingham. A lot of the investors still go there for rental properties. I have a couple of apartments in Oklahoma city.

I invest in the top 10 worst safest cities in America, and I think it all comes with part of the territory of investing in the right sub markets, even in these bad unsafe areas. You can just invest some generalities of these stupid top 10 list. That’s it, if you’re looking for the safest cities in America.

You’re probably ain’t gonna cash flow there and it’s probably not going to be a good investment. Partly I bring these types of figures up to call up the BS, right? Safest states in America, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Utah, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, Washington.

Now you’re not investing in a particular state. You’re investing in a MSA, a city and if you dive down even deeper into a certain MSA or sub market within the market. So for example like Seattle has maybe a couple dozen sub markets within the greater Seattle area. And even within one of those sub markets, you might have a good side or bad side or good block, bad block.

What we tell investors is get away from these stupid top 10 lists and really start to dive in and just know that some of these safest states, a lot of these just won’t cash flow. They’re not going to be good investments. Sure. They’re nice place to live in. And maybe it has a good school district or two, but is it going to be make good investment?

And that is where you separate the real investors to those people who just like to collect houses in random areas of the country, because they feel like it is safe for them. Some of the least safest states in America, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, Alabama, Montana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana.

If you went off this list, you wouldn’t invest in Texas, Alabama, Florida. I’d say three of the top eight states to invest in quite frankly, so bad data. Michael says he’s jumped St. Louis. It’s only bad in certain areas. So St. Louis and Kansas city, I don’t know what it is about those towns, but man, it isn’t really like block by block those certain areas.

And that’s just go to show you, even in the right sub market, you have to go look block by block.

Okay. Thanks for the comments, folks feel free to drop more comments in, and also if you guys are checking this out on replay, drop the comments below, I might get to it. If I happen to be playing around with social media, which I try not to, I think it feels to me it’s a waste of time. This next slide is some Arbor.

Arbor is one of the the few direct Fannie Mae Freddie Mac lenders that we’ll work with to get these large direct Fannie Freddie loans for apartments, not a good data and newsletters they come up with. So this is an article on affordability and some of the highlights here.

The pandemics economic effects combined with this year, surging rent prices have straightened low-income renters facing housing of 40 back in the spotlight. So as we know that the pandemic impacted a lot of the low end, the class C type of stuff, the class A stuff in a traditional recession, the class A people lose their jobs and move to the Bs and Bs to Cs

but in this particular COVID-19 pandemic slash recession, the A-class were pretty much unimpacted other than paying for a grub hub and not having to go to their college sports games or professional sports games and big, nice vacations. But other than that, they’re pretty good. Some of our class A apartments they ran into a rough month there when a lot of people were realized that

interest rates were low and they bought houses. And this is why it’s nice to invest in stuff that your tenants aren’t exactly economically mobile. Now that could be insensitive, but, Hey, when you’re in an investor, you don’t want too much turnover amongst your tenant.

Next point here reduced business income due to the pandemic and related downturn may decrease the value of tax credits and require affordable developers to seek alternative financing sources. So there’s a lot of developers out there that will develop these properties for the lower income, or it might have say 20% of the units designated to be 20% under the market.

I think it’s a good idea. It’s the government’s way of ensuring that you have ample supply of lower income because even in a good area, someone’s got to take out the trash or do those types of jobs. So it’d be cool if they live close to where it’s at. I think this is a hell of a lot better idea than making a bunch of projects and we’re a bunch of more people are living.

There’s just a lot of unsafe conditions and high crime areas where I think that the it called this the lurk different acronyms L I HTC is another program, but developers will take advantage of these government incentives to build and get either get credits or great loan.

But the give back is they need to have these rent restrictions on a certain amount of units. We’ve got a couple of apartments that have these exact same thing where 20% of the units are designated lower.

The share of the LIC HTC mortgages utilizing the 4% tax credit remain elevated at 40% through the second quarter 2021. Reflecting the continue to attract the of rehabbing versus ground up development. The housing choice voucher program. Another major affordable housing initiative is set to be expanded in the proposal of 2022 federal budget by 5.3 billion.

A 13.3 increased from the fiscal year, 2021 now 3.50 several trillion, still pennies amongst the big stimulus package. So it sounds like a lot of money, but just a drop in the bucket in my opinion.

Now, this article is a doozy here. We’re going to try and break this down. This is from the joint center of housing studies of Harvard university. And if you guys are ever looking to sound really cool and smart in front of your coworkers, friends about investing in rental properties. This is a great source to read about.

So what this article is, and I’m gonna summarize from a real high level here just so you guys have the major takeaways. This is discussing kind of the whole debate, whether you should have zoning restrictions on certain areas of your market, of your MSA or submarkets. Now, if you guys have been paying attention to the last investor letters, the last one we had.

I think it was one month or two months ago. You guys can access the old versions of this monthly newsletter at simplepassivecashflow.com/investor letter. But if you recall, California gotta love California. Probably the most progressive state in the union. They had a restriction on certain single family home zoned areas and due to some of the need for more housing due to high costs, they are starting to break up those traditionally single family home zoning and allow for some more densities and duplexes drop Webster claws or smaller apartments in those.

And a lot of affluent people get upset at this type of stuff. Because it’s not in my neighborhood, right? This is for the rich folks, leave us alone. I don’t know why I say it in that accent, but it’s the battle between the haves and have nots once again, and this has been going on since the beginning of time in the 19th century in America, cities started to itch institutes.

And the builders of homes are lightly regulated in the early 20th century. Progressive reform include the practice of land zoning from Germany in order to provide working class families with low density housing on the urban health score. If you guys are history majors or you love geeking out on this stuff, you guys can look at the 1917 Buchanan versus Warley Supreme court decision which prohibited zone by race.

And in 1926, the courts gave it blessing to zoning that segregated land uses and building types in Euclid versus Ambler. The court endorsed single family homes on the grounds that they excluded parasite apartment buildings that blighted neighborhoods and lower property values. I guess that’s a better term to call those types of the projects right?

Where they just, Hey, let’s just stuff, all the poor people into these really dense populated areas. And I think this is what you think of when you think of the slums of India. I think that’s what they do, generally. The idea and the movement today, at least with the current administration is to break that up, bring spread apart.

People into different areas, which means that the poor people will be amongst some more middle-class people. And then, also the high ends will be intermingled with the middle-class people, single family home at this greatest impact in the suburban boom took place decades after the world war two.

And this is where the FHA, the federal housing administration and the veterans administration. Got together and develop these areas called Greenfield, such as old farms, which generally took the form of single family houses on individual lots. As they say, a lot of the guys who came back from war they wanted to start all life.

And this is where the overwhelming choice to Americans will be to the suburbs developments, cater to this taste carefully Cabernet, calibrating the size of the lots and price point. For these different income levels what the encouragement and approved by FHA such developers, such as William Bevin, explicitly fought barred black Americans.

And in some cases, Jews from buying into these subdivisions. And that was where, we think of it as duh, that’s not right. Back not too long ago, stuff like that.

That Supreme court case Jones vs Mayer prohibited discrimination in real estate transactions. Fun fact, just a little while ago, I saw, I used to have a lot of properties of Birmingham, but Birmingham or the state of Alabama just got rid of a law that said that you could not teach yoga in public schools because they thought that it was the hokey-pokey or kind of mix of churches.

Type of stuff strange, right? This country is so diverse, so amazing, great to live here. So no matter what size of home and yard that possess some urban communities felt like they had a stake in maintaining the social or physical characteristics of their neighborhood to ensure that new development would serve only high income brackets, suburbs, commonly imposed, minimum, large minimum.

House lot size is often up to three acres, but sometimes up to 10 over time, many came to see any new development as a threat to their quality of life. The not in not in my neighborhood. When I was an industrial engineer, we would study things like, they would design like bridges on not really highways, but major thoroughfares to eliminate buses coming through cars.

Buses. So it was one of those like social engineering type of things to keep the poor people out.

Local officials responded by making it more difficult for home builders to obtain construction permits from the 1970s onwards, they implemented measures that impure or block new construction in the name of saving nature. A process that the late Bernard Ferdin a long-time professor at MIT. Describe as the environmental protection hustle, suburban cities and towns became composing outright limits and moratoria on new construction to slow or to scorch development.

In addition, building development, official city engineers, the fire marshals, each impose increasingly demand requirements on new residential development in the 21st century. No large municipalities Metropolitan’s continued to impose non zoning. Anti-growth measures these included, not wanting environments and building Coles, which was their sly way of living growth, but also requirements for project approval from two or more government entities, extracting fees for developers and formal design.

Such restriction, constrained development and thus could contributed to the rise in housing prices. I used to be a city engineer and city controls the permits they can designate who builds and who does it, and they can guide the growth of a city and who moves in and what kind of clientele that they serve.

It’s. So this, if you guys are living in fairytale land, where you believe that, you, anybody can live where they want, you may be mistaken,

but there’s been a movement to increase density and remove barriers to housing developments sometimes called yes. In my backyard has brought about the. Single family zoning fans, as well as new rules to apply accessory dwelling units in single-family houses in states and localities, most notably, Oregon, California, and Connecticut, but the efforts to get rid of single family districts have not addressed the plethora of obstacles to residential development on a scale that would affect housing prices.

Many places have a little. Have failed to increase the level, height or size of the building to allow for more density in Oregon zoning reforms allowed them to Sally’s to acquire large lot sizes, California and new laws allows local jurisdictions to impose more occupancy restrictions on subdivided, lots, these local zoning and design requirements in place and accept lands that have been deemed prime farmland, wetland, or part of conservation.

The new zoning rules usually allow building up to four units on a previous, the single family, a lot, a single number that will remain likely the most development that had been done on one lot at a time by homeowners and small skill builders. Overall, this is a small process. And if you want to grow your YouTube channel and you want to scare people to clicking on your video and watching your videos so you can collect ad revenue that way you scare the crap out of people.

And you tell them that the world is coming to an end, like California housing bubble is going to pop because a handful of inputs are now allowing some duplexes, triplex, or pods to be. As opposed to a traditionally single-family home neighborhood. I just don’t believe that impacts things too much.

That’s why do we need this? Because our country’s population is growing and we need more of this. Value-based. Type of housing to house the Lord middle-class because the shame, the middle-class are dying out. It’s endangered species and they’re becoming the lower middle class and they need, they don’t, they can’t afford these larger single family home lots and generally moving into multi-family apartments.

Last point here merely eliminated single family zoning histories just is light unlikely to increase housing stock. Significant, as I just said, To at least residential development will require peeling back layers of regulations that have accrued over the decades. This could mean reducing minimum, lot sizes, relaxing, overly stringent construction, and site requirements, easing design reviews, and rolling back some environmental controls.

Being certain provisions for wetlands and open space, the political efforts necessary to reverse such entrenched practices, how it will be formidable so that the recent laws against single-family zoning are, but the first steps in a large March. So what they’re saying is, yeah, sure. It can be open to single family home or duplex surplus applause, but good luck trying to get a permit.

Moving on. So the next slide here is taken from the Yardi matrix. A great data source. The image below is basically showing com the January of this year, as the vaccine started to roll out. Man rent increases have been pretty much skyrocketing asking rents nationwide, continue to break records.

Although there is some signs of deceleration, which, normally the rent increase go up two to 3% every year, which kind of goes up with the pace of inflation. You know what I mean? A lot of this growth for the first part of the year, until now, in my opinion, it just wasn’t sustainable. And it’s got to cool off at some point, but asking rents were up 11.4% year over year in September.

Monthly rent growth was 16%. He read a 1%, which is the last month he gained since the housing market began to accelerate in March. And you say, oh my God, we’re going back down. No rent increases kind of goal or a lot more smoother in terms of increase and decrease the fact that it went up 11.4% year over year.

It’s just phenomenal. That’s usually what the top market in the nation. Like the best out of the top hundred, 150 markets did. And that’s what the average is across the country. Just phenomenal. Sunbelt tech hubs are still leading the nation in rent growth as markets in the Southeast and the Southwest benefit from rapid domestic migration and job growth.

The migration story has been playing out for a number of years, but accelerated quickly during the day. Yeah. This is why I used to have apartment in Iowa or we build what best in Kansas city, Indianapolis. I just don’t really like those types of areas. Population growth might be, I might be going up.

I think of it as more stagnant. At the end of the day, the rents are not really increasing too much as it is. The Sunbelt states, your Arizona, your Texas, your Alabama is your George’s Florida. Is your care lines. Single family built to rent continued to grow at even faster paced and multifamily.

The nation rents are up 14.3% year of your occupancy keeps rising up 1.2% year over year. Andrew comments is the build to rent the next phase in your development or an offshoot. So the builds to rent to me is. I just don’t. The big institutions are getting into the space because we’re becoming more and more of a nation of renters.

I just feel there might be a good exit. What is hard to do is if you buy out 50 or you developed 50 houses, the loans don’t allow you to piece off sell a onesy twosy property here, there. So it makes your exit strategy pretty much impossible with that. I’ve looked in. But, with why do we like apartments?

We have one freaking roof, a lot of times, one major Shiller or individual HVACs. Whereas in the apartments, all we’ve got to worry about are the interior walls. We don’t have to worry about all these stupid roofs or all these, like backyard, all this, like landscaping. There’s just, there’s this double amount of things that can go wrong with a single family home.

Other reasons. I feel like single-family yeah. Tenants are a little bit more needy. They’re a little more entitled, right? They, they literally have a Fort to themselves where apartment dwellers, they know their role, they’re renting an apartment, a box within the box, and it’s just easier to keep open mind.

I dunno. I never say never, but I dunno. I just see the large institutions going into it and their property capitalize and they can do things that, the mom and pop investors can do, and they can do things that the private equity guys, folks like us can’t do. No. We don’t build, we don’t build little houses.

I, and I think that’s another thing, right? A lot of this is predicated on relationships. And who do you have in your Rolodex? There’s a lot of house builders out there, it’s just it’s a different type of business. The good.

Bill for. So John Burns reports, the build for rent story, the tenant preferences. So what’s mattering more is spending more money on some pet friendly home designs. So what matters less is don’t spend on head walking and services such as dog walk walking. So for us, we like pets. If it’s in like a.

The plus, or especially a because to me and this one, I’m just speaking in terms of generalities here. So give me a break. If somebody has a house, a dog or a cat, they’re typically a little bit more stable and they’re not going to move with what I’ve, that’s, what’s important to me as the investor.

Whereas you get into the class C housing. Animals are more like guard animals or they’ve you have cats. Now you’re talking about the cat lady at cat dude with 60 cats and they can be destructive. So I think that there’s a different, there’s a paradigm differential between the lower class, the higher class rentals that said.

That’s do cause damage. So it’s supported to collect more rent, which typically anywhere there’s a pet fee cleaning fee and then maybe a bump in rents, maybe about 10% plus every month for those pets, things that other people are looking for. Other high-quality finishes such as a fabulous kitchen.

And this is just, people have been in, locked up in their houses for two years and a lot of people are working from home. So it makes sense to spend a little bit more money than. Typical one-third that your budget kid budgeted, supposedly on your housing, some things that they’re skipping out on a spending less premium Florian, smart tech.

So the premium flooring and the real wood, I don’t know why people would want those. I like the luxury bile vinyl. It looks super cool. It looks sometimes even better than the hardwood and it’s indestructible. And when you get tired of it and if it happens to break, you can just fix it. I think that’s up to the game changer amenities so that people want more relax, relaxation areas and spend less on coordinating social activities.

So if you guys check out my last podcast on apartment life.org. We still feel like the social aspect is really the added value for residents to increase that community aspect of it. So we still like to do things to increase the community aspect or that’s wild seeing why people pay more or stay, they don’t move out because they have a community of friends.

The home office as suspending on a full office or den for single family renters with children, that having met nook is something that we’ve been designing into our new development for that, that dedicated work from home person. But they’re went, they’re seen as lot of people offer that extra bedroom for that.

People aren’t spending the money on. Not spending money on a full office for single and couple single founding renters merchandise, a bedroom for flexibility,

the national association of realtors and an article about renter demand shifts toward more affordable and suburban class B and C apartments. Go figure. They’re setting the apartment demand has surged during the pandemic, continued to soar to a decade high level as 2021 quarter three with a net absorption of nearly a billion units since 2020 quarter to absorption.

Just so you guys don’t know, absorption is new stuff coming online or vacant things be filled up with people or observed. Yearly quarter of a million units in the past 12 months as of 2023, the vacancy rate has fallen to a decade low 4.5%. And the asking rent has soared to a historical high of 10.5%.

So whenever you’re looking at, the demand or the hotness of the barn we look at a lot is not only it is where they asking rents are going. And obviously it’s been on a tear for this beginning part of the year, but what does that the vacancy rates too, can also be an early indicator of, or symptom of a better market or a worst market in the future.

So as vacancy starts to creep up, that’s how you know that there’s too much inventory coming online. And I think at that most cases, in my opinion, you’re going to see that the rent’s late. The vacancy tips. You guys are more graphical people. We have a lot of English in years. So the graph at the top, this coming from the highest 12 month net absorption declining vacancy rate in rapid rent growth as of October 13th, 2021.

So the top growth top graph is the absorption of units. As you’ve seen as of the last 20, 20 quarter three absorption has gone a way. Almost two to three times what it’s normally been. Vacancy rates have also come down. Typically we’re hovering anywhere from six to 10% vacancies. That seems to be the healthy about the vacancy across the board.

But now, Lowe’s are 4.6%, which is indicative of a good, hot, healthy. Asking rent year over year growth, obviously that has skyrocketed 11.4% since last year.

I will just comment, so when the 20, 20, 20 21 quarter one was the part of the pandemic, which you had, and I think my cursor is on at this point, I guess you guys can’t see my cursor. At that bottom of that low scenic rents cuff on a frozen, because what a lot of people, a lot of investors or operators we’re doing is just holding rents where they are.

It was seemed a little unfair with people not working, to bump up the rents. So that was appropriate at that time. At the same time, vacancy remained about the high, it didn’t spike due the pandemic. And that’s what we all thought it would. Maybe thought people were going to lose their jobs are not working, turned out that the pandemic actually froze everything, how it was, which is actually a good thing, right?

Heads and beds rents do collect your rent checks. That was the impact of the pit. That

now this is a breakdown of construction of apartment units by class in 2021 for. And the class is designated by class a, B and C. So eight glasses, your luxury stuff, B class it’s, they’re still pretty nice stuff, especially if you’re talking brand new, definitely not luxury stuff. Class C stuff is your lower income.

And this is why, like, why is there no class C stuff? The cost of that built the dang thing just doesn’t make any sense when you’re billing. Which is why barely any supply comes online. 1.3, 4% of new construction is class C what it is, it’s a split between class a and B, but there’s an interesting phenomenon happening here.

It’s so if you’re looking at the graph, this is probably a graph for a lot of you guys listening on the podcast to go and check out later in the year 2011. You have more class a and class B, but the spread was very thin from 2011 to 2016, they diverged. So the class a share of new construction greatly increased and the class B stuff declined.

That’s the same adverse relate relationship. Now here’s what I’m speculating around 2016, maybe there was just too much nice stuff. Which is why, which is typically what happens when the market gets a little bit overheated. The developers go a little bit too much have on building the class, a stuff that they can’t really get the breaths because there’s too much class, good class space.

So that’s why I think you’ve seen this backtrack and now you’re seeing the class a builds 56% class V builds 42%. They’re coming together against, so one would assume that this is a good sign for investors and the market that this is, will this kind of, this cyclical pattern will continue to have.

I don’t think you’re ever going to get it. It’s just, if I don’t, I never say impossible, but it’s just, it doesn’t, it’s not going to happen where there’s going to be a lot more class B than a, it’s just stupid to do that because you to, again, to build something brand new, it just makes sense that just build it a class.

So I w one would assume that that the just cyclical pattern where it squeezes and expanse will continue to happen over time. It should there be a recession? I, what I would think is the whole quantity would decline, but the percentages will remain the same. This is a graph from ALNF a L N price class averages of effective.

Everybody always says what’s the difference between a B and C D class. One of the big things is, the age of the property. If you want to generalize, I’d say 19, maybe the year 2000 and newer as class, a 1990s, 1980s is more class B 1960s, 1970s, his class C plus D is just kind of garbage.

That’s older than 67 a year. But this is a graph of kind of showing what is the effective rate rents, and you can see how they line up for the class. A slightly above $2,000. A unit class B is around 1700 class C is 1400 in class D is 1100. Of course these are a lot higher because we’re including high priced areas, such as New York, California, Hawaii, Seattle, because a lot of the class C properties that will.

We’re average rents will be around 800 bucks, usually about a little less than a dollar or two, a dollar, a square foot.

If you go by this graph, we’re certainly not buying class D most of the California pricing is a lot higher than this. This is again, we’re an investor needs that, take this all into account and understand this is just the whole United States clumped into one. As we all know, we are very diverse.

Culture political mindedness and also a wide range of housing options. You got a lot of different class, a pricing. Class a and California could mean 3,500, $5,000 a month. And in bourbon, Huntsville, we’re building this stuff. That’ll rent for 1400 to $1,600 for class a, if you guys see that little orange dot there, that is actually.

Percent change of the rents have been changing. And a lot of the increases has been happening in the a B class types of markets or types of assets.

Everybody’s been talking about the supply chains, sorta judges. This is why we like to go into stabilize assets because, and this only kind of impact. Development where you aren’t able to get in front of the problem where the shortages that in our world is 63% are the windows is that’s the primary, the issue getting those windows 17% is getting the lumber.

13% is the engineered wood products. And 8% is the concrete. So it’s. I don’t. I don’t think that this is taking into account appliances. Appliances are another issue too, but this is the building material causing contractor project deletes

overall rental. Market’s been skyrocketing. If you’re an investor being left out or I feel bad for you, jump on board and ride this inflation wave for the next several years. But are the top three challenges for the rental industry, putting out by the multi-housing news. First one recruitment and retention of staff, a lot of people, or if you guys have heard of the great resignation, I’m going to restrain myself from telling you my real thoughts about this whole thing.

People are burnt out. So people are like leaving their jobs. And a lot of it is like lower level staff. Although I’ve have talked to a few of you guys, who’ve booked calls with me. Some of you guys just done. You guys are all white collar workers or you guys are done with it, but most of the people partaking in the great resignation are the, the service workers, the people on the front lines.

And those are the people that typically will employ as the property management staff at these properties and the maintenance handyman staff. So that’s number one, number two. Finding high quality vendors representing the number one challenge, I guess I goes with number one, number two, loss rent, more severely impacting smaller companies.

And there are many positions in this industry that don’t require a college education. They are looking to create programs, promote the industry, to attract workers. There is a lot of churn in the industry as we need to see that labor pool open up. And one way to do that is to advertise industry and all the benefits it offers.

Reminds me of the whole teacher shortage. What anybody wants to teach a bunch of kids and not get paid too much sign up. It’s like property manager, right? Anybody wants to interact with tenants who. They only write two and one star reviews when they are on set, but when they’re happy, they don’t tell a single soar.

They say, thank you. They assume that they’re entitled for good shipments in their $800 apartment. It’s a thankless profession. It requires a lots of tact, lots of project management skills, lots of people’s skills and it’s a very key, critical position in my opinion.

If you guys haven’t checked out the family office, Ohana group, I think we’re getting up to actually, I got to change the site 80 members, or so the initial fee to join is going up next year. So please reach out before the end of the year to partake in 2021 pricing. Cause ain’t going to go down. If there’s one thing that is true in life, it is rents typically don’t go down and the family offers Ohana initiation fee don’t go down either.

Most people who join, should we save them or makeup four or five times that initial fee in their first year. So get on the inside and unless if you’re not tired of listening to the same old stuff, a podcast land, or just to give you just the tip to just get you confused enough to call the guest

and figure out what product and sales funnel you want to fall into. And lastly, help me out and check out my book simplepassivecashflow.com/book. Shoot me an email at lane@simplepassivecashflow.com. If you would like to help me out for a few minutes, giving me a review on Amazon so that my parents can be happy with me.

They don’t know what I do these days they’re upset, or I think they’re just confused I’m not an engineer but unless there’s any other questions, thanks for joining us folks. The legal disclaimer here, of course. Do your own due diligence and think for your guys selves.

 

August 2021 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/FFi-T4045aw

Hey everybody. This is the August, 2021 monthly market update. My name is lane Coca. I run civil passive cashflow.com owner of 6,000 units plus, and we are going to go and look at what’s been happening in the news lately. That’s going to be impacting investors. If you guys. Had a chance type of comment below, say hello.

And if we if you’ve got any questions, I’ll be trying to manage the comments and answer any questions you guys have, or if you guys have any fun comments, but you haven’t yet grabbed my remote investor e-course so this whole journey I’ve been on started in 2009. When I bought my first rental, then in 2012, I started to go invest remotely in Birmingham, Atlanta, and Indianapolis.

Created this e-course because everybody was asking how to do it. And it’s all the same questions over and over again. So I created this course and I want to give it away for free so you can pick it up by shooting me an email lane at civil, passive cashflow.com and put light in the subject line.

And I will get you access to that.

All right, here we go. What’s up, Jen hee. Hello, a numbness. Facebook. Yeah. How inflation impact you? It won’t, if you’re unaware of it, if not, it’ll just rub money in your sleep, right? Because if you own a million dollars, now that million dollars is probably going to be using fifth five to 10% of its value every year.

It’s ultimately your buying power. It doesn’t matter how much money you have. It’s matter how much the value that it buys. If you guys liked this you can check out the podcast that will passive cash. It’s all about real estate investing for passive real estate investors. And then it’s house flipping wholesaling burst stuff is more passive investing for folks with good jobs.

And it’s also on the YouTube channel for those of you guys are listening in the podcast, but here we go. We want to start off with a few teaching points that people have been asking the the last month and then we’ll get into the monthly market. Now, some people have been saying Hey, I found, some peoples pitching me this deal for 12 to 20% interest rate.

And if I’m lending money on a house flip and first question I asked is like, all right how much experience do these guys have? Because likely what you’re doing is like you’re buying crappy paper. If you guys are familiar with Moody’s S and P in. Credit ratings, they fail rate lenders, right?

And in the same way you could rate the the people you invest with or a house flipper. And a lot of times what’s happening is you’ve got super newbies who still work their day jobs and are doing this as a side gig who you could probably see as effort DP. And giving people really high rates, but, unsophisticated investor will just go rate chasing, but a smart investor will want a good rate, but more importantly, to be investing in a person who is experienced and good.

So maybe that’s an eight class paper in this respect where B paper. And, but that might be more of like a, five, 600. Interest rate that might come in. I got a lot of guys that I know in a mastermind used to be a part of that they can get 5% notes all day long from investors because they have a good long track record and a really reliable it’s the people who are brand new that have to pay 15, 20% plus and beyond the, where, there’s a lot of people that will like like white label and remark it a certificate.

To sell it to unsophisticated investors and create some kind of markup. So for example, what they’ll do is they’ll get some brand new house flipper who can’t get a loan because they don’t have any track record and nobody trusts them and then they’ll go and they’ll lend the money to them and they’ll flip it around and lend money to you.

And they’ll market it as like a B class type of, or B kind of a paper grade. And they. You’ll invest and get 12%, but then they’re charging the other guy 20% on the backend because it’s a really bad investment and they’re making that big spread. I think this is as an investor, you need to know who you’re investing with to make sure that this little don’t man thing put on, because at the end of the day, you’re investing with a complete newbie.

And that’s fine if that’s your investment strategy and you’re going after the, high-risk type of stuff. At least know what you’re investing with. And yeah, there’s a lot of these types of private money or capital groups doing this type of stuff. And this is all done in the household pig world, which I’m really a big fan of anyway, be on the lookout for that.

And then also, big thing that we do with a lot of clients are taxes, right? You can invest and that’s great. Maybe make 10, 20, 30% returns in real estate, which is backed by a heart attack. But for a lot of the high net worth clients, it’s really about, protecting your income make two, three, $500 million a year from your taxes.

If you guys want to check out my personal taxes, go to simple passive cashflow.com/tax, but it’s like the athletes they get really hammered here. Bron James target woods, Anthony Davis Floyd Mayweather. I hope they have, I don’t think they have good tax representation. But it’s the healthy guys who make a lot of income, but don’t pay too much tax.

Yeah. So beyond the smart, you may make under a hundred grand or you may make under $300,000, but hopefully you pay less than 10 or 20% tax

all right. So crypto investing here, if you guys don’t. I look, I watch a lot of Reddit blogs and stuff like that. And this guy is like this little lizard looking creatures called Anan. I think it’s supposed to be a representation of some random anonymous person, average Joe, it’s, this is very typical author to another thing to be on the lookout for is somebody who invests crypto.

And loses their a month of wages. And then now they considers itself a trader and an expert crypto. I don’t claim to know anything about crypto. I do think it’s a good thing, but I don’t know. I just stick to my own lane, which is investing in real, tangible assets. You guys can learn more about simple passive cash with.com/start.

Let’s get into the month. This was a cool graphic that I found it outlined the tax strategy or taxes that citizens paid on average in different countries. And the United States is sitting at 24.5%. By the way, if you guys pay more than that, you need to get on the passive investing Shane and get away from Borden income and find a way to do rep status is all I got to say.

But these other countries pay 30 to 40%. I guess the takeaway is the United States. We don’t pay too much taxes compared to other countries. Now, somebody in one of my groups said those other countries, they have a lot of entitlement programs. The United States is the only one in this group that doesn’t have.

Government subsidized healthcare or free healthcare, like how you having Canada, but maybe that’s probably coming at some point it’s right or wrong. I don’t care. It is what it is, but, I think that my takeaway is like, you’re not taxes probably going to go up. The rest of the world does it.

America could probably bump it up a little bit more and get away with it. It’s even more so to pay attention to your taxes. If you guys need to learn more about that, go to simple passive cashflow.com/tax. All right. So what’s happening in rents? Apartment lists came up with this graphic saying that, so we look at the dotted line was the NEC the national median rent pre pandemic trend, which is just a boring cyclical.

A trend that’s just going upward, with the whole pandemic, everybody got frozen and some rents pretty much just stayed statement. But now what you’re starting to see this first two quarters of this 2021 is rents are skyrocketing. Places in Texas are going up, high single digit.

In places like Phoenix, it used to be 6%, which is still pretty high for a year, but now it’s like getting over double digits there. Different news sources report differently, but rents are going up folks. If you haven’t, if you haven’t caught on to this, you’re two quarters behind the trend already.

And a part of it is pent up demand. But this is, I think it’s good to be alive. But to be a landlord.

John Burns consulting came up with this cool infographic talking the rise of sister cities. So what’s this, the cities are, is like the coma is to Seattle. Canton, Ohio is to Cleveland. Stockton is to the east bay like Oakland. Bakersville is to Los Angeles. Tucson is to Phoenix, Colorado Springs as the Denver Fort worth is today.

Port St. Lucy is the Palm beach. Greensboro is to Durham and Philadelphia is to New York. And there’s a, just to name a few, but I guess the takeaway from here is this is another trend that’s going on the rise of the great MSA. NSA’s where you have mega cities. So I’m not to the, quite the point where Portland and Seattle or combining all in one.

But, like in Seattle and Tacoma, sure. It’s separated by 20, 30 miles depending how you get the ruler out, but it’s becoming one giant MSA and, people are clumping together in these metropolitan areas. And I guess what just thinking from an investor perspective is, like typically you can’t cash flow.

In the private markets and you typically can’t cashflow in the main headliner city, but where you find cash flow is that sister city. And I’m not saying any of these sister cities are good, but it’s just a trend to be on the lookout for, especially if you live near one of these cities and you’re just unwilling to go outside your local area, or you don’t have enough money.

So there’s really not, no, no sense to diversify yet, most accredited investors, they. Wake up to the fact that you want to be a remote investor investing in the top five markets across the country, as opposed to just staying in your regional area or where you can drive to hello, real page reports that DFW Dallas Fort worth leads.

Sean Mitchell, the man performance now, including gateway markets too. So what that means is Dallas Fort worth. Needs quarter two apartment demand, which is net increase in occupied units. So I’m just going to read this from top to the bottom. From the most to the, the bottom of the top 10 lists are Dallas Fort worth Los Angeles, orange county, Houston, Chicago, south Florida, Washington DC bay area, New York, Seattle, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Austin, Texas.

What again, what this is a report of is strong Metro level demand performance now, including gateway markets too. So one, one important thing to note here, and these are larger markets. I guess Austin is small, but I don’t know if they’re including the tertiary markets, which are those smaller markets anywhere from a quarter million to a million population.

And, Los Angeles is number two on here, but I wouldn’t invest there. There’s no cash flow. So depends on what your investment strategy is. It’s

Joint center for housing studies of Harvard university. If you guys like graphs and data and you need to follow, what’s hard, we’re doing these days. They come up with great articles. Really thought provoking. In my opinion, they got a lot of like racial stuff on a bad way, but it’s just interesting to review what the stuff that they come up with.

And so in this article or this graphic, what they’re showing is the leading indicator, free modeling activity. Second quarter of 2021. What you’re seeing here is remodeling activity coming up from the beginning of the pandemic double. Where we are today, where we were, and this rate of change has been steady over time, which makes a lot of sense.

A lot of people are remodeling like second home, make the place that you are a little bit nicer, makes sense, Adam. These guys follow a lot of lender data and. Porting here’s us properties with foreclosure filings in the first six months of 2021 hit an all time low of 65,000. I guess this makes sense because the rent moratoriums, which just got extended, by the way, I think it’s went up to September, October, and just continuing to kick the can down the road, which I think they’ll probably kick the can maybe another month or two beyond that.

But what’s good for real estate investors. Is that it steady, right? They , just like how they said, oh, we’re going to raise rates. All right. It took them like three to six years to finally do it. And it was very slow and gradual at the time. And that’s, I think that’s good for long-term prudent investors.

Again, joint center for housing studies of hard review university reports on inventories for homes for sale fell to a record low in early 2020. I, I said the Harvard guys come up with really good surveys. I just happened to pick our really obvious one. Yes. Supply is at an all time low or at an all time low, but it’s really a low, which is why residential prices are hot and everywhere.

Constant crunchy is hot. If your market is not hot, your market has a huge problem going up more than likely, but, What makes up prices is not only supply, but demand. I don’t know where demand is. We know supply is low, but it’s a question mark on demand. So what I mean by that is, is demand higher or lower than what it was now.

People with money right now, you’re white colored folks have a lot of pent up savings, or are going good for a lot of people because they can’t smell. I guess they’re starting to spend it by going on vacations and that type of stuff. A lot of the data says a lot of families on the higher end middle class and above have a lot of money.

And which makes sense why they’re buying houses due to the also the low interest rates. But I don’t know, it’s hard to measure demand. Supply is easy to measure because that’s just, days on market and how many houses are on.

So this is a graph of existing supply of homes. Again, the supply which we showed on the previous graph is going down, but this is a graph of overlaid on top of it is year over year changes in crisis, which definitely shut up starting last year, right now they’re showing it over 12%.

Yeah, which is really crazy normal historical price increases, just goes up with the pace of inflation. And typically they teach you in grade school where you’re supposed to nod your head and just accept everything that’s in. The book is supposed to be 3%, but a lot of us that are listening right now and know that’s a bunch of nonsense and it’s probably a lot higher than that because a lot of the money that’s in the stock market or pumped into the system is finding their way into the stock market, which is why prices.

I think artificially inflated and why I don’t invest in stocks, but as Facebook user says here, how inflation will impact us? It’s just going to devalue the amount of money that you have, that people who have a lot of debt, especially good debt are going to be the beneficiaries of this and eat. They think this is why a big motivation of what I do is what I do is because so many people have this completely wrong, right?

They want to pay off their debt in their mortgage and have it all paid. Which I think is silly. Like if a lot of people have maybe a million dollars of equity in their house, by the time they reached the golden years, if they took that money and put it into something like HP making eight to 10% a year, they’d be able to pay for two or three kids.

Grandchildren’s college like that, a hundred thousand dollars passive income. But they choose to just keep it locked up in their house.

yeah. Apartment list.com slash research slash category. Headless cool infographic that I have up on the screen now, or essentially rents are rising quickly. Everybody signal captain obvious. Once again, that’s the second point for cap. Th the way that I invest is primarily on the big drivers, which is economic growth and population growth.

And here is the population growth of, from a state level, of course, you always wanted to dive in on the MSA and then dive in another layer of the sub-market, but, from a high level, state level, in the big movers, in terms of populations, Are a lot of it is Texas plus 16% Utah plus 18% Colorado plus 15% Nevada plus 15% Idaho, Washington, Oregon, all double digits, North Dakota.

I understood that out. Nobody wants to live in North Dakota and there was only like 10 people living there anyway. So that went up to 60%. So there’s 12 people there. Now that’s a joke, but. Like a lot of these places like Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, multiple double digit population growth, where a lot of these are have been like low single digits, especially up in the Northeast.

I don’t know what’s going on there. The places that have remained the same or no growth is Mississippi at 0% Illinois, 0%. I think everybody knows about the struggles that Illinois.

Y I was sorry, I just had a kid a couple of months ago. I thought that was Wyoming, but I knew that Wyoming wasn’t there. That is West Virginia actually went up 3% down there. Hawaii has gone up by seven. But yeah, this is just one way of looking at your investments, investing on the trends where the population is growing up, because that’s what drives housing values and the demand for rents.

If you guys liked this, check out our accredited investor group that found that office on a mastermind currently about 75 plus members. Credit only pure passive investors. Only if you’re broke, don’t join us. If you’re interested in learning more about syndication deals, who to invest with more important, who to stay away from taxes, legal and getting to know other people on a personal level, because a lot of us are on this move from a million to $10 million net worth.

So know getting the simple passive cashflow is easy that whole time. But it’s all about, who you take the journey with and getting the best practices for more of the soft skills and the soft tactics on how do you build your family system and, surround yourself with the right people.

If you guys are not accredit investors, but I would recommend checking out the incubator, simple, passive cashflow.com/incubator. Pick up your first remote rental. But now if we’re to the end, if you guys have any questions, please pop it into the show notes,

but I’m going to go into my personal side of the story where I just talk a little bit, what I’ve been doing personally themed through 20 Robins, six personal six human needs.

The first one is growth. This has been my life last month. I just changed a lot of diapers and I don’t get much sleep. Now I totally understand why only a third of the investors or under the age of say 30, right? These are the guys who make $150,000 straight from college in their engineering jobs.

And, or, they’re the max out your 401k guys, but most of the people are older than the age of 36, 40 years, old million million, and a half dollars a net. And they have kids that are maybe five to six years or greater people who have kids from zero to six. That is what I knew before is the Bermuda triangle for anything in terms of even passive investing level active investing.

Now I know why it’s. Sucks. Yeah, it’s rewarding too at the same time, but yeah, it definitely is a time suck and energy suck and it’s hard, definitely hard to spend the time to read anything., if you guys are, that are younger than the age of kids, get your passive income now and get that stuff set up.

I was lucky by getting this all set up because I don’t know how I could do it now.

And enjoy your time out.

The second thing is how does a contribution back to society and the community? There’s a lot of people out there and you guys follow the 40, 40, 40 plan, which has worked 40 hours per week. Do that 40 years retire on 40% of what you’re struggling. All of your life with, and that’s a, the job just over broke or juggling our bills or jail operating business in mild pain and your life doesn’t really start until you stop trading your time for dollars.

So put screen around putting your money to your passive investments so you can get out of that nine to five date. Sure you might like it, but probably would want to do it a lot less. So jump on the simple passive cashflow bandwagon, and let’s have some fun, a little bit of significance here. I’m actually wrote a book folks and this isn’t going to come out until a couple of months later, I think because the one thing that is slowing me down here is I have to read it right now.

I’m doing, I have it right here. I am reading it and I’m going through it very slowly because they don’t have very much time these days and making the audio book because all you guys are too busy to read anything. who reads things these days who actually has time, unless you’re on vacation or something like that, which rarely when does that happen?

But if you guys want to get a copy of my book electronically and you want to give me a, help me out with a referral. I’ll buy you guys a book when it does come out. But I appreciate that, she meant emailLane@simplepassivecashflow.com. You guys can read it with me before everybody else gets a chance.

Some things that, everybody needs a little uncertainty and they’re highly, if not all right now, I like this kind of searching. And then we do the same thing every day. Because I have an eight year old and I’m not allowed to leave my house. If not, I’ll catch COVID or some other element and killed my daughter and I don’t want that to happen.

I am very aware that uncertainty is the spice of life. And without it, you don’t need too much of it, but it helps counteract certainty in your life. So one of the ways I’ve gotten a little uncertainty is we had a fire on one of our developers. You can’t see it too much, but on the bottom left here, supposedly the story that we’re going with too is that there was a lightning strike and it started a fire and it burnt down that whole building.

Good thing. We have insurance and $2,500 deductible. We’ll get it wrapped up. We’re actually ahead of schedule. So it won’t be too big of a deal. That’s why you have insurance, but no, that’s. Got me a little excited on a Sunday afternoon, a little bit, but overall certainty, right?

Things are being built. The value is there. If you see on the upper left hand corner, that’s a big beat we’re competing against, you’re going to kick their butt in terms of schedule. They actually started, I think half a year earlier than us, and we’re already eating them right now in terms of construction.

But our product is a lot nicer to have. Anyway, deals are cash flowing for the most part and heads and beds. Occupancy is very stable. Rents are going up. Likes is pretty good, that’s why you live the simple passive cashflow life. Fortunately I can’t see all you guys. And I think a lot of you guys are, especially in the family office group or going around the country, meeting each other, having fun.

I feel definitely a little bit of FOMO. I feel like I’m missing out a lot, but I am planning the 2022 retreat. So this is going to take place January 14 to 17 and a walk. And one thing I did was I hired an event planner, cause I’m not going to be coordinating all the little excursions by myself anymore.

I didn’t go crazy doing it. I’m a pretty good wizard at the old Google document and like coordinating that type of stuff. But this year, if you guys haven’t been on the pre-survey, please go to simple, pass to casual.com/ 2022 retreat. And please fill that out because that’s going to help me plan it even better.

And that’s going to get you guys on the pre. You get, you’re gonna get access to buy your tickets a lot sooner than everybody else and probably at a cheaper price. That’s for sure. What I learned by doing that survey is a lot of you guys are pretty jazzed about coming to Hawaii, maybe because you guys are stuck at home for an entire year of 2020, and.

It’s going to be pretty big event. I’m thinking 80 to a hundred people at the very least. And I think we’re going to cap it at that number. It’s not going to be like a stupid conference with a bunch of speakers. I’m going to be teaching about, taking money out of your 401k investing in deals.

Other soft topics that I know a lot of you guys like in the family office group, but it’s going to be more predominantly put on building relationships with other peers. Accredited investors, because in my opinion, that’s the really, the only way to find your way in this world family office clients are going to get first access to it, but then it’s, at some point we’re going to be going up to the bigger, simple, passive cashflow community.

Obviously a credit investors are going to get force excess first. But hire an event planner. So that’s fun. And it got me really excited because apparently they know what they’re doing and a lot more, they know this and a lot more than I do go figure. And they do that for this, for a living. Some fun things I found were do dads.

I found Amazon deliver stuff from whole foods and I don’t have to pay a delivery fee. If you guys haven’t found this is the big tiny. I think the bad thing is you can’t get the sale items, but I don’t like the sales stuff to me that I don’t like the chicks in games about the sale items.

I don’t really care, but they see a huge convenience and off the pier convenient for your delivery fee. So if you haven’t checked it out, check that out and that’s it. Unless anybody has any questions.

We’ll see you guys next time. Bye.

 

Rent Increase in Real Estate

https://youtu.be/nqln54QS5Ss

This is a report from Zumper boarding that rent creases are on the rise. If you haven’t noticed. I think the last couple months we’ve been reporting on it, but it’s been consistent since about the turn of the new year, January. And some of these they’re even reporting three, four or 5% or higher just in this one report.

I’m reading more into the article, two bedrooms, apartments rose 4.8% year of year. With a 3% increase in one bedroom bay area rents have flattened with San Francisco open and San Jose one bedrooms are all gaining compared to April. National rents are accelerated, driven by growth in cities like New York.

And I think this is the bounce back of the big urban areas, which got actually got hugely flatten, independent gear because of the, people wanting to move away from the highly dense areas. Milwaukee grew a lot 8.9% year over year. Drop 5.2% month over month. And that’s just to be expected when you have those big fluctuations.

Think of it like the volatility of like alter altcoins pops up dives down, Glendale, Arizona, one of the top growing nutshell area with 15.7% year over year increase. And Phoenix within 9.1% jump question here on Austin is like Boise. I’m not a huge fan of them. I think Austin is really overheated it doesn’t cashflow there, so I’m not interested, but I’m sure rent increases are up there too.

I might be able to pick it out here. Oh yeah. Austin. Number four here, Austin in Baltimore made 5.1% month over month gains, but Austin remains down by 0.8% year over year. There’s your answer to your question?

July 2021 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/Q9Wb_WwAOG4

What’s up everybody. This is the July, 2021 monthly market update. You can check out past monthly updates by going to simple passive cashflow.com/investor letter. Let’s get to it.

The freebie this month is we’re giving away the remote rental e-course light for anybody who goes and emailsLane@civilpassivecashflow.com.

In the subject line and we’ll get you access to that about by remote rentals. Great for non-accredited investors and great starting education for accredited investors. You haven’t checked out our Facebook group, all the YouTube channel and the podcasts. Check it out, Google my name or simple passive cashflow show.

You’ll find it. And those you guys who are starting to jump on live, if you guys want. Any questions, please do so feel free to interrupt as I go along and I hear we get going. So a few teaching points for this month. We had a pass couple of podcasts about Bitcoin and crypto investing in general. And, I think.

Think about crypto, there’s three ways of investing the first and probably the most conservative is just the staking and just investing in something like block five, where you’re just getting a straight return by lending your money out or staking it on a platform, which is a little more risky too.

Second way is investing in, the blue-chip cryptos area, more block fi or not block five, but Bitcoin. And then of course the, one that I think a lot of people gets a lot of tension is the investing in alt coins, which are your asymmetric return type of deal where it’s a high risk, high return type of environment.

But, not really differentiating between any of those three particular strategies with very risk levels. We in this discussion, there was this table that came. With the guest and different levels of investment based on your net worth here. I think crypto is here to stay and I think it’s going to eventually replace or become just as big as gold right now.

It’s about a 10th of the gold market. I’m in like the one, the 5% range, one or two here, this kind of scenario, choice out of my net worth. I’m not in anywhere near that. At this point, I’m too busy, doing real estate, but where my head’s at, I’m down here, but I would be concerned if you guys were up here.

A lot of people in our group, we’re probably less than five. Some of them were crazy. Crypto folks are around the 10%. Or less a range and the debate here, right? You can also get cash flow and value add in one, you don’t need to get two cats here. If you go into deals that are stabilized with value you can do both, but it couldn’t be turnkey rentals and it’s not going to be those bird properties that all the kids are doing, which to me is not a very good risk adjusted return because you’re just investing with a bunch of lower wrong contractors who at some point is going to steal your money.

I implore everybody that listened to simple passive cashflow. A lot of us are more accredited investors to invest more like a credit investor as a passive. Marker and start investing and start to look at your taxes for a lot of you guys are making over a hundred, several hundred thousand dollars adjusted gross income taxes is your big thing.

If you’re some guy making 40, 50, $150,000 a year or less taxes, isn’t a big deal. But it really starts to come into play. When you’re single making over 150,000 or married fell jointly making over three $30,000 a year. All the big shots. They figure out how to pay less taxes legally. Here’s their kind of their tax rates.

Someone said in the Facebook group that for Ilan is to get a new accountant because he’s paying 3.2, 7%. It looks like we got our first question here. Other ways you can defer capital gains for real estate books besides 10 30, 1 exchange as an opportunity for you. I’m not a, I’m not a huge fan of either of these opportunity funds or this, you can Google all about it.

But the thing about the opportunity fund is you’re investing in crappy areas. Why the heck would you want to invest in crappy the hours that the government has deemed that opportunity fund, where they want to help funnel money in because the aerial sucks. That’s just not the way I want to invest. I want to invest in good solid stable areas.

Whether there might be a problem with the management of the property or the property or the management is distress, not any particular issue with the property and especially not an issue with the area, which is what the opportunity zone is all about. For some time it’s time, you can find an opportunity zone with a Starbucks in it.

That’s an outlier of the map, but not a big fan of the light. And then 10 31 exchanges again. I don’t know why anybody really does. 10 31 exchanges that 31 exchanges, you got this timeline, you got to have 45 days identify all your properties. If you’re buying like lukewarm crappy deals, then yeah.

You can go into whatever you want. But if not, you’re a distressed buyer. And when we’re selling our apartments, we love when we have a 10 31 buyer, because we know that they’re distressed and they’re typically unsophisticated, most 10 31 exchange. People just have a lot of money and they don’t really understand how taxes work.

How do you defer capital gains or how I do it? I go into a lot of syndication deals that do cost segregations. Not all of them will do it, but if you go into. Does it have, I’m like, oh, I do. You’re gonna kick up these, you’re gonna pick up several hundred thousand dollars, a passive activity losses, and you’re going to be able to hold them and Curt, and they’re going to be suspended, passive losses to a, you use them to offset ordinary income.

I probably should stop and say that I’m not a CPA, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But look, I don’t pay too much taxes. You can go to simple passive cashflow.com/. And I put up my tax returns there and you can check out how much taxes I’ve been paying these last several years and in 2019 and pay anything drove up my adjusted gross income down to 25 grand.

And part of that is by driving, by creating more passive income and simple ordinary income. So I could use my passive losses to offset that, if you have. The hard part is transitioning from the traditional way of investing, not only 401ks mutual funds, but traditional way of real estate investing and into the more passive tax advantage way that we like to teach our folks.

And so the transition is a hard part and that’s really where the family office, a Honda mastermind comes into play. That’s where we source the best practices to do this. But in a nutshell, What you’re trying to do is you’re trying to build up enough passive activity losses. So you, when you do sell your property and you can offset that, pull down your suspended, passive losses and offset those gains right in that lunch transaction.

Case in point, I did this back in 2017, when I sold off, I believe seven of my rentals and I had a $200,000 capital gain day. Which would have sucked, right? That’s a capital gain and also had to pay back the depreciation capture on that because I had owned those properties for several years, depreciating the properties over that time.

But I had been going into syndication deals prior, and I had built up $700,000 of passive activity losses, which are used to offset it one for one. So if you look at again, go back to that website, simple passive cash.com/. You can actually see where there’s a little emoji that says thumbs down at the 10 31 exchanges.

Exactly. Because of this, being able to use passive to be losses in this fashion. And the reason I don’t like 10 30, 1 exchanges, you’re a distress seller. Everybody knows you’re a sucker because it through one of these things and you’re going to get abused. And a lot of times you’re going to be abused on the buying end when you’re exchanging the property.

Everybody knows you need to buy. If not, you’re going to pay the government Volvo taxes. So you’re usually going to pay 10% over market price. If you don’t think you are, you’re probably the doesn’t, isn’t aware of this. And then, sophisticated investors, they don’t want to put all their eggs in one basket.

And this is what’s very typical. You see these people running around with large capital gains in, a hundred thousand dollars to a couple of million dollars of capital gain. Likely they have a huge chunk of their net worth. I’m a big advocate that you don’t want to have any more than five or 10% of your net worth of any one deal because things happen and it’s good to be diversify.

Another, you want to spread your eggs all over, all around and not be too leveraged. Thing right there. Thanks Bruce. So they can close up that. 10 31 exchange thing. not a huge fan of it at all. Why do I like real estate? If you cut the news recently, the Chinese ban Bitcoin mining.

All of these like Bitcoin mining machines, they get bricked and they’re not worth anything who knows. They’ll head off to it’ll go somewhere else. I am sure. But my rules of investing is invest in stuff where you have enough income to pay for all the expenses for a positive cashflow with leverage, right?

None of this, oh, I bought a property cash employer, California net cashflow. No, you’re not, but you are technically, but your net worth isn’t going up by anything because it’s not a good cash flowing investment. And then we like real estate because we’re able to leverage into favorable debt terms. And it’s a hard, real.

Oh gold. And technically crypto is a hard asset, but it doesn’t produce cashflow. Kemeny leverage it that well. And that’s why we keep coming back to real estate question here or up comment.

I thought passive activity losses can only offset passive income. I didn’t realize you can use that against capital. So again, I’m not a CPA guy here, if you’ve held on to that property for a while, it’s considered passive income. That’s the distinction. That’s where you need to have that educated conversation with your CPA license.

It’s doing things really conservatively and it doesn’t do real estate. And Mike puts you in a category of house, flipping a burry. And this is why another reason why you shouldn’t be doing this burning stuff, you’re doing this activity, right? You want to be going with the attention of being a passive investor, buying coal at that point.

Now you can create that capital gain and turn it, and it being a passive thing. Now some CPAs would probably argue. But it’s your job as an investor to steer the ship with this stuff and justify why it is a long-term capital gain. And that’s being able to use passive activity losses to offset it.

If you’re doing real estate professional status, so taxes, which a lot of us in our mastermind do. It’s all a mood point. It all turns, it doesn’t matter if it’s a cat if it’s an active, ordinary income, short term, passive or short-term capital gain, long-term, it doesn’t matter right now you’ve created the situation where you can use the passive losses to offset, whatever it becomes.

A free-for-all that’s a little bit more of an advanced strategy, but, I think this comment here was just talking about. If I have a capital gain in a real estate property, yes, you should be able to offset it with passive income, but Hey, I’m not a CP, a embassy engineer that I was able to quit my day job doing this stuff, and I’m able to use the right experts to do my taxes for me.

That’s really all their job is just to do the forms and paper work for you. It’s I think it’s the investor stopped to empower themselves with the information. To be able to guide the ship on this, or at least be the architect of your financial future and your taxes. Let’s get into the news here.

Shopping center, business reports at HSBC sells 90 other branches and is exiting the retail banking sector. Maybe not big news, but some you guys bank here looks like the citizens bank will be picking them. On the east coast and Catholic bank will be picking them up on the west coast. But just another example that banks, they market themselves as big institutions, but they come and go just like anything else.

This is a report from Zumper reporting that rent creases are on the rise. If you haven’t noticed. I think the last couple of months we’ve been reporting on it, but it’s been consistent since about the turn of the new year, January. And some of these they’re even reporting three, four or 5% or higher, just that this one report I’m reading more into the article, two bedrooms, apartments rose 4.8% year over year with a 3% increase in one bedroom.

Bay area rents have flattened with San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose. One bedrooms are all gaining compared to April. National rents are accelerating. Driven by growth in cities like New York. And I think this is the bounce back of the big urban areas which actually got hugely flatten, independent gear because of the people wanted to move away from the highly dense areas.

Milwaukee grew a lot 8.9% year over year, but cooled off a drop 5.2% month over month. And that’s just of. To be expected when you have those big fluctuation. Think of it. Like the volatility of like alter altcoins pops up and then it dives down Glendale, Arizona, and one of the top growing nutshell area with 15.7% year over year increase and Phoenix within 9.1% jump.

Question here. Austin is like Boise. I’m not a huge fan of them. I think Austin has really overheated it. Doesn’t cashflow there, so I’m not interested, but I’m sure rent increases are up there too. Maybe I might be able to pick it up here. Oh yeah. Austin. Number four here, Austin in Baltimore made 5.1% month over month gains, but Austin remains down by 0.8% year over year.

There’s your answer to your question, Giles. Thanks for sitting. But the top five, for those of you guys catching this up in the podcast form, which gets released once a month we’re not able to check out the the PowerPoint presentation on the YouTube channel. Number one, Irving, Texas rose 5.4% and like many DFW suburbs it’s up year over year, as well as 9.3%.

San Francisco. Madison was Constable rules, 5.3% in June, but our year over year trending in different directions. The Moines, Iowa and Reena that are rose by 5.2% in June making the second month in a row that Moines has finished in the top 10. I’m actually trying to sell one of my properties in the Iowa.

And the price that we’re getting is a lot higher than what we had for offers two or three months ago. Things are, everybody knows it right now. It’s not, it’s no secret that things are definitely turning around Plano, Texas to Troy, Michigan, and Chandler, Arizona rolls by 5% in June, which Chandler being a Walker eight point 18.4% year over year.

Okay.

What’s on the downward slide. So here’s the top five of the downward is Spokane Washington, one bedroom rent slipped by 5.2% compared to me, but are up 13.6% year over year. That’s a little misleading, right? It went down 55.2% in just in one month. But overall, I mean it’s up year over year.

You as an investor need to take everything with the greatest. Richmond, Virginia dropped 5.1% in June, but it’s essentially flat year to year Durham, North Carolina, New York, Newark, New Jersey rents tumbled by 5% in may. Milwaukee experienced a wrench up a 4.5% in June, despite the year over year gain of 5% and Boise, Idaho has been one of the highest.

Markets in this pandemic because people are, moving out of LA or whatever the thesis may be. It doesn’t really matter. It’s just, Boise’s on fire, but Ritzville 3.9% in June. And that’s just, I think is, if it went up a whole boatload that it has to resettle and settle out. But I think one thing I caution everybody with Boise.

It’s this very small market. It’s a small tertiary, right? One, a little impact there. We’ll make the numbers jump quite a bit. . I’m not quite sold on the market. It doesn’t cashflow too. So I’m not too interested in Boise. A leader’s for annual rent growth include Riverside, San Bernardino, Phoenix, Sacramento, and Las Vegas.

This from the same metric, but at different new source real page. But you were going to go through some of these , top rent increases charts, and you’re going to see the same leaders of some of the ways they measure. Data’s a little bit different. I would think, just take everything relative to ranking, but the top ones are Riverside center, Bernardino, 13.5%, Phoenix, Arizona, 11.4% Sacramento, 10.4%, Las Vegas, 10.3% Tampa.

Memphis Atlanta, Jacksonville Greensborough, salt lake city, rather than at the top 10

same data or same metric here. Top right increases for me 2021. This coming from realtor.com again, Riverside center being in Dino, Ontario, California, 19.2% Memphis at 17% Tampa at 16.9%. Phoenix Mesa SKUs, the Arizona 16.8% sacramental 15.8%. And then Richmond, Virginia, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and sending San Bernandino goats too.

San Diego Tara the top 10 according to realtor.com. Moving away from apartments, talking a little bit about office. Commercial property, executive reports that rising sublease rates boost office vacancy. What’s happening here are the bigger players are taking over space on the smaller folks.

Take like a JP Morgan or Experian, they’re eating up the available space, left over by people who just jumped ship, dropped their lease. But on the contrary, like wash street is a big Black rock , one of the big players that you may or may not want to follow as the smart money they’re agreeing to sell their office portfolio off and shifting more towards the multi-family sector.

And this is a , 760 $6 million office portfolio. And wall street says it plans to use the net proceeds from the sale to fund the expansion of its multifamily portfolio through acquisitions in the Southeast markets to reduce its leverage by repaying outstanding debt. With office to Southeast apartments, and this is what we’ve warned everybody is, do the whole bed, demic, multifamily apartments was a safe Haven.

It showed a lot of strength and, This is what the smart money is doing. They’re finding sanctuary and , I think it’s a good sign if you’re an apartment fester, but bad news is, people are not dummies or the big smart money or not. You’re going to have increasing more competition.

Similarly Blackstone, another big player, they’re betting $6 billion on shifting the path to suburban home. What they’re doing is they’re buying 17,000 homes and getting into single family home rental market. So they bought out home partners of America, a rental company that owns over 17,000 homes.

According. To this report by Blueboard this what, so basically here’s how I read it. Big hedge fund company, institutional money coming in, they’re wanting a piece of the single family rental market. Some people will say now let’s even harder for people to buy houses and they’re right, I don’t think everybody should be a homeowner.

At least by debt service coverage ratios. I don’t think they should, but this is institution bef it’s hard for an institution to get into this space because you got the whole issue with property management, which is a huge pain in the butt. If you guys own turn key around. As you guys know what that’s all about, , these large companies did this back in shortly, right after the recession.

And they struggled a lot because they weren’t able to work with some of the more hairy properties, but they’re up to it again. These big decisions are made by the guys in the suit, in the ivory tower and from their perspective, it looks like a good deal. But the problem is the implementation, right?

I’m sure there’ll be fine. It’s not like the guys with the suits are the ones doing the hard work anyway. Oh, Adam releases this this cool chart where it tracks the activity of loans, which kind of mimics what’s going on with like overall transactions and real estate. The main takeaway here is.

This breaks down the, he locks the refinances and purchases loans. The Healogics have remained about the same. The purchases are steadily increasing all the way back from 2010, but what’s been really hot is this green bar here, which is representing the refinances, which really started to take off in the end of 2020.

A lot of people, and this is obvious, right? And we’ll, if you think about it, it’s obvious because it’s not obvious to the average person who doesn’t listen to the podcast or this monthly market update that I do every single month, but as people are having their property values rise because of the overall everywhere is hot due to low supply, in my opinion, and not really due to more to match, just cause it’s due to little supply and all this fake money pumped into the system.

People have all this home equity. Then what they’re doing is they’re refinancing their home. They get at the money multi-housing news reports at Fannie Mac, Freddie Mac extends the multi-family for parents program. One last time. They’re looking like it’s going to be up in September 30th. This could always be extended, but I have a gut feeling that this is the final straw at this. Maybe one more. And then the Supreme court keeps the addiction ban in place.

I don’t know. This is just by understanding the whole thing. It doesn’t really matter what really happened. But the whole point is that the eviction moratorium is ending. And it looks like it’s probably going to be the summertime. The band was in place until July 31st, but they kept pushing it back.

And now, the question I read, all the regular people ask on the street is how the heck is the CDC mandating that people can’t get evicted? The heck? Does the freaking center for disease control have jurisdiction over it? We’re not a political show. We just tell you the facts and let’s spend our time and energy and stuff that actually matters, which all right, how’s this going to play out?

People aren’t going to have that protection of this law place. And one could say that there could be some foreclosures coming up. As you put yourself in the shoes of somebody who went in forbearance the middle of last year, as you lost your job, which you have to remember is your. Debt payments are still adding up.

Say your mortgage is a thousand dollars a month. It’s not like you just keep you pay your next month. A thousand dollars. This stuff has been accumulating on you to the point where you might have 6,000, $12,000 of mortgage payments built up. I don’t know what American family has that much money to flop down if they’re in forbearance.

No one could assume that, there’s going to be a glut of. Foreclosures coming through. And here’s where I differ. I think this is where people use it to sell attention and get people to click on like their Twitter feeds and their YouTube channels. Ken Makarov did this, he put all these YouTube videos that the world was ending and then the world did it and can not grow. I was investing in 2015 to 2019. Very much. He lost out on one huge bull run in that period. Now there’s a lot of foreclosures that could, they’re saying potentially could come in and crush the market, is what they say. I personally don’t think it’s going to impact things very much. I think that’s there are a lot of people that are going to go through foreclosure, but I just have a feeling that it’s not going to rock the boat for much, but that’s just my feeling. That’s and I don’t care because this is why I don’t do residential real estate.

. Where the prices are primarily dictated by , how your property performs in terms of net operating income

Arbor releases this breakdown of well who owns single-family home. 70% of the single-family of home stock out there and of two to four units are owned by unsophisticated mom and pop investors or the individuals. Whereas the multi-family apartments, only 10% are owned by mom and pop investors.

And this is why I keep telling people they need to swim upstream because you got to get away from the amateur investor, doing it on the wrong as they work their day job on the side. That’s cool. That’s how I started. And I think that’s what you still have to do when your net worth is under half a million or get out of credit investor.

But I think the point is try to get out of this space. Cause here , it just all kinds of stuff going on in this world where just you have amateurs buying properties. And especially in the last year where they see the stock market dropped due to the pandemic. And now it’s again, amateur hour, people coming into the space of Blackstone or BlackRock, as you mentioned, bought 17,000 homes with $6 billion worth of assets.

But still it’s a drop in the bucket. Only 10% is owned by the institutional managers, or I assume others what that’s captured by. Whereas the institutional managers still own 10%, but hell piece LLCs, I would call these more sophisticated operators and syndications are this lighter green where.

I was called that 60% of that multifamily apartment is owned in that structure. Or again, only 10% is by your amateur hour. Pop on upon fester high end homes sales out for this is a graph done by real red. I think this is obvious, right? Like in the pandemic. Unfortunately, if you are a white collar worker able to work all your life, didn’t really change. Your inconvenience because you aren’t able to go to the football games, basketball games, and travel on your qualifications.

Go to Disneyland. So you got some spending money. What do you do? You improve the house or you go buy a bigger house or you go buy a cool luxury vehicle. That’s why I think that’s why cars are expensive these days and there’s some limitation on the current parts and computer chips supposedly, but I think a lot of people on the upper end maybe call it the top 10% of the United States.

You did pretty well. You got a lot of money, you got all this stimulus money and you didn’t even need it. But probably more importantly, as we kind of work with clients, it’s not really how much you make. It’s how much you spent is the bigger KPI is what I see when I work with people. The fact that you’re stuck at home for a year, not able to go on vacations or blow your money and fun stuff.

You got a lot of money. This kind of makes sense. Unfortunately with the pandemic, like the poor got four and that’s what’s happening with this inflation. If you’re sitting on your cash, you’re going to be a loser with all the inflation. The mid price homes stayed the same, but the affordable homes went up in terms of demand here, little sad.

And then overall, this is just show up days on market, which is an indicator of demand. I’ll be very Frank with everybody. When your friend tells you that they’re buying a home in this market, it’s a freaking sellers market guys. These on market was less than 60 days back in 2013.

And now it’s down to 26 days on high-end properties and 20 days of more affordable housing. It’s a sellers market in any sense of the word. If your friend is buying a house to live in now, an angel loses their weeks and lane cries to sleep. After another person falls victim to the narrative of buy a house that you could make the lenders and real estate agents rich out there, and you tie up your cashflow so you can not invest it, and you’ll be a victim to working for it.

Of you can sense the sarcasm here, but if you want to turn the tide, join our family office, Ohana mastermind, where you get to meet up with other accredited investors. So it’s 45 people. We got about 30, 75 people on there. Now we do by date, these in conference calls, it is a geek squad of financial fanatics in this group where we work through learning syndication deals, what to look for, who to stay away from.

It’s a closed private. And we worked through the tax. Eagle, but I think the most important thing are the soft topics that we go over. As a group, as you start to build relationships with other pure passive accredited investors,

That wraps up the monthly I’m going to be going into what I’ve been up to personally. And if you guys have any live questions, you guys want to type it into the chat. We’ll we’ll try and answer at the end there, but something I’ve been up to the last few weeks, I’ve been a new father and there she is.

She wakes up every three hours. She wants to eat and I changed her diaper. Unfortunately I’m not able to run away and say that I have to go to the office tomorrow because I worked for him. I have to wake up. It really sucks for some of you fathers, mothers out there, and you can probably sympathize.

And half of our investors are older. The age of 40, the rest are the, the young bloods, making big salaries for my only advice from you guys, standing here in the middle, looking at both sides is enjoy your life. Your life doesn’t end until you have a kid. Or maybe starts, or we look at it, but your life severely changes good or bad or worse, depending on which side you’re at, but that’s it.

we got her some credit cards, I added her on a few cards to be an authorized user, she can start building her credit. Not that she really needs it in my opinion, but she can start trade lighting and making me some money.

I’ve found ways to give contribution back to the community and here the new content created this month. We had George Newbury, we went through a lot of investors also invested George and the HPE servicing fund which I still do they have audited financials because they have a reggae plus offerings.

And I sat down with George and he went through it because I’ve always wondered okay, you got this like huge document. What the heck is all this stuff? Let’s can you show me what are they? Things are actually important to be on the lookout for. We went through that that was released late June.

We have a couple of videos in the rich uncle channel, which is more geared towards the younger folks. I’ll try and make it shorter, a little more snappy. Because there’s a whole bunch of bad financial advice out there. And I think a lot of folks that come to our community, we’ve drunken that thing for a decade or two, at least.

And it just misled us a little bit. One podcast was syndication tips for LPs. There’s a whole boatload of those LP tips in the syndication eCourse. I highly suggest everybody go buy the thing. It’s a few hundred bucks. But I don’t think you’re going to find anything better out there for, being a good passive investor.

You should find something better. Let me know. I’ll refund you. I’m that confident? The thing that I can guarantee you can’t find anything better in a church of course, or book, hold on. We had the cryptocurrency issues and then. I did , this big video, I was looking for like timeshares, cause I was like, I have a daughter and she’ll probably like Disney.

I started to do the worm thing. I stayed up really late one night and I started to look at like, how are these timeshares work? And my conclusion is don’t buy a time. Share if you really want to, you can buy it aftermarket off some sucker who paid full price. There’s a lot of aftermarket websites that you can do that where it’s totally legit , friends, don’t let friends buy timeshares or buy houses in seller markets like today.

And for those of you guys who like all the soft topics building your legacy family trusts, I would suggest going back to the May 25th podcast. Or I talk about the credit status and what’s on beyond, after you have a few million dollars net worth. Yeah. Giles, they’re selling two trade lines every month now.

Amen. There’s nothing crude, like chain lines are like, you put your authorized users on your credit cards, through a broker and you can make a few hundred bucks easily to get that. It’s a lot easier than a turnkey rental. You don’t need any money. Now, when I need money down, you just need to have a credit card.

That’s a couple of years old. There’s a little risk there. They can cancel your cards. Like I’ll chase it, all my cards. But I think it’s worth the risks, especially if you are a lot of credit cards, like how I do some other significance thing here. So we close El Cortez apartments in Phoenix, Arizona.

That was cool. But the opposite of certainty in your life is uncertainties. So what are the things I’m worried about? The rent increases are going up, that’s a no brainer, and that’s, that’ll probably continue to happen, but at what point will it stop? And what will the demand look like in the next one to three years?

I think for the next several months, maybe even a year, I think there is nothing that I think this is really going to derail. In that short amount of time, but what’s going to happen a year or three years now. And I think this is where you’re needing to have a prudent strategy where you go into things that cashflow so that when things do get tough, you cashflow and you bought onto the asset.

Other things that have been uncertainty from like building or finally getting building on the chase Creek apartments that we started last year. We have we have a opening date, like 20, 21, the website’s up several of the buildings are up here. Some pictures of it. Here’s the area on the left side.

You’re starting to really see it come together. And lastly, a loving connection, some stuck here at home, going prays a little bit less. But I’m really looking forward to when all you guys get to come to Hawaii, Martin Luther king weekend, January, 2022, where we get to do the Hooli five to the fifth big event that we’ve done as a group, a full members are going to get are already to this.

We don’t know how many not full members will be allowed to come. I got to figure that all out, but I have five months. To get it all lined up, get it ready for you guys. But if you guys have been to pass a simple passive cash flow events in the past, I don’t like a lot of people. I think it’s stupid when you get the stage, backlighting all this nonsense.

I want to put the emphasis on the connections with you guys. you guys are. The draw and attraction, right? As opposed to some, another brew on the stage, sell you something that type of nonsense that we see a lot, something that I bought. If you notice the camera is super sharp. Because I bought this 4k camera.

That was kinda my doodad purchase of the month. We’ve got a lot of questions on the Facebook channel join up there. And this is like kind of chatter that happens at the mastermind level or at the family office group where we meet every couple of weeks, it’s not simply

what are the profits? These days? It’s more of a soft subject around Ooh, have you invested with in the past? And a lot of this is just going to come from building organic relationships with one. I have never seen anybody who willing to say, Hey, you and I just met up. You’re cool.

We shared a beer. Let me just give you my whole spreadsheet of boy. And that’s it for the last 10 years that just doesn’t happen. I think people hold it a little bit more closely to the chest. Of course they don’t want to talk bad to anybody if they don’t know you, especially it’s just not good for them, but any questions before we wrap up.

One question here about distributions. , we’re getting paid. I don’t think that there’s a apartment deal that’s not hitting distributions so that is close to the quarter, actually. It was a week ago. It’s July.

Usually takes us about a couple of weeks, at least. To get all the rents to come in and then wrap up the books and then decide. Yeah, I do want to send out this much that much. And that’s how the madness happens for distribution checks. . But if nobody has any other questions, . If you haven’t yet connected with me, please do so if you’re thinking about laying it simple, passive cash flow.com. Want everybody to knock out their onboarding call with join our community lately.

We’ll see you guys next time.

 

 

June 2021 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/Ej3gVGwhRj4

What’s up everybody. This is the June, 2021 monthly market update, where we go over all the important things that have been happening in the news that will impact your investing. But so let’s get into it. Easter egg for this month. Little bit of a joke here. It’s a little Mimi here. Taxation is theft.

Where person didn’t leave a tip, but they left it in a cash tip so that the federal government and state does it take their cut. And they’re exactly right. The middle class is the people that get 30 to 60% take in front of in taxes. If you guys want to learn more, go to simple passive cashflow.com/tax and join our private investor group@simplepassivecashflow.com slash club.

Like joining there. You’ll get the free light remote investor. E-course six or seven hours of videos to edge. Get educated. It gets started in investing again, go to simple passive cashflow.com/club. You guys haven’t heard me before. My name is lane Coca cellmate, professional engineering license. If you guys like this said more, check out simple passive cashflow podcast.

And for those you guys are already listing on the podcast form. Can also check us out on the YouTube channel, where we have all these great slides and graphics. Me, I like graphs stuff, check out all that on the YouTube channel.

So some teaching points as we start out, stuff, eating the chicken here, showing the KFC. Chicken poop and start eating the eggs first for cashflow, right? Create streams of income. Don’t eat the chicken, eat, the eggs that they hatch the golden eggs. Don’t kill the go to groups.

It’s the same. And again, act like an accredited investor. I had an investor today saying I don’t have enough money to invest. I’m like, but that’s not the point. The point is stopped doing all these things that are hurting you like buying a house to live in. Investing in the wrong stuff, like your 401k and doing things the wrong way in terms of tax, I’m gonna drop the link here.

Simple pass a castle.com/tax. Little gear here is looking at the back of another year. It’s like the IRS taking money from you.

And then, get that. Remote investor eCourse light for free, by going to simple passive cashflow.com/club or a shipping email land, simple passive And we’ll get you access to that. And then you’ll learn the secrets of investing. And a lot of it is just not in textbooks, such as this one.

No, I a meme here where the person said on social media, the bar, random people, jogging for no reason, the higher the rent is going up. Yup. That’s about it is we don’t invest in those areas where people will go jogging in the middle of the night. It’s no secret that we don’t invest in the nicest yuppy areas at the same time.

We’re not in dangerous areas. The class C or T Airbus worse. We stay in that sweet spot. And that is the kind of the secret sauce investigate, good areas to the lower middle-class wrong. Give them good housing and treat them with respect. In turn, they pay us a good return on our money.

A lot of other podcasts, if you guys missed out this month, we had a couple podcasts on cryptocurrency and you guys want to go back and check those out. My new rich uncle channel, which is geared more towards the younger folk. It was supposed to be a little bit quicker, for a lot of people, they don’t have too much money to start investing or start investing seriously as an accredited investor.

So where do you start? So check out my rich uncle channel or give it to the kids. Some Warren buffet highlights from his latest Berkshire Hathaway report where he’s talking about. Inflation coming. And the shorter, the story is by assets that produce cash flow. That will go up with the pace of inflation.

Those people not able to invest are going to be the losers here. Unfortunately. We also talked about preferred equity versus traditional equity to treat it different ways to invest and yeah. More stuff to come next month on the simple passive cashflow podcast.

We had talked about if you guys are missing out a lot of this discussion in our simple passive cashflow, we Facebook group, you guys need to find us on Facebook and join us as we’re always talking about new things, not always real estate. Talk about crypto, such as the latest happenings with tether here.

But yeah, let’s get into the report here. So the first thing wanted to talk about is inflation as Warren buffet outlined for everybody inflation is here and it’s probably here to stay price a lumber skyrocketed more than a few times what it used to be, but not to freak out, right? If you’re a home builder, you’re going to see the price come back at you when you actually sell the houses.

This past month, we had a big dip of Bitcoin or all cryptos for the most part. It is not a mature market. And the reason why I say that is, and if you look here, Elon Musk was the guy who supposedly. Tripped up the latest bull market as he tweeted that Tesla would stop accepting Bitcoin payments.

Sighting. I feel as a bogus thing saying that, he doesn’t like how it’s hurting the environment. It’s not like the people mining the stuff like they’re getting the energy. From pretty hydroelectric, solar. They’re not getting it off the grid for the most part.

And I think he’s not dumb enough to not know that. So it’s just another example. I think Elon is just trolling everybody and it just shows that cryptos are still a very immature market or what. No guy can move the market as he did. It gets people into storage clean so he can place swing trades.

Unfortunately, a lot of people like really buy into this stuff quite a bit. And it’s not the people that are very wealthy that cannot get hurt situations like this. A lot of people in my world, they like crypto, but I’ll keep it within reason, maybe with one, the 10% of your net worth, if that.

The less network you have, in my opinion, more conservative, you have to invest in investment cashflow as opposed to these ACE semester risk type of pull dates. I’m definitely not a big fan of alt coins, which I feel like are startup investments, very asymmetric risk type of investments.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are the blue chip type of cryptos, but these stills swing up and down quite a bit. And of course the more conservative way of playing this stuff is not the odd points, but the staple points, just getting a nice little yield farming from there.

So this survey put on by UCO on behalf of bank rate and April, 2021 showed that homeowners most common regrets about purchasing their current home. And it showed the difference between a home owners of all ages and then the millennials. So the top ones where they had no regrets, then maintenance and other costs of two.

I bought a too small of a house, bad location. Didn’t get the best mortgage rate. And then these are some of the lower row. Common regrets, butter, too big of a house mortgage payment, too high overpaid, too much, not a good investment. And lately I’ve been thinking, there’s no rules of thumb out there for this type of stuff, but I felt like, if your net worth is not one or two times the price of your primary residence, Ellie, you should buy it.

And it probably disqualifies most people out there. So if your net worth is, quarter million dollars, don’t think you should buy a house. That’s more than $150,000 in that case. You don’t buy a half a million dollar house until your net worth is a million dollars in my humble opinion.

And that probably upsets a lot of people. Cause they’re like, oh man, we’re going to buy a house. Like we’ll go invest and do something financially responsible and grows your money the right way. And then go buy a house. A house is a financial tray, but then again, my big cabinet is for most people out there are financially irresponsible.

They can’t seem to save, or then they make, and they can’t control their spending. Therefore, a house. Might be a good option for them because it is a force piggy bank for those people. But for most of you guys listening, you guys are pretty good with your money. You’re financially responsible. I know a lot of you guys backs out the 401ks, do things like that until you learn about real estate on alternative investing and for you folks, I wouldn’t buy the house quite yet.

So yeah, your net worth is at least two times your what’s the posture you’re looking to buy.

For sure.

All right. So I got a display of the back here of 2020 population, net migration by county. Now this is a big one. I think you’ve seen so many of these maps with states net migration, which is good, but. I think a lot of stuff gets mixed up in the shuffle, right? Because most people are clustered in a few cities in every state.

And it is a little misleading when, Texas is a big state for example, most of the growth has clustered in those top five cities in Texas. But here we have it broken down by county where the red places are, the growth in counties ended up blue is where the people have been moving out.

And I think this is a lot better way of figuring out are you in the best thing in the right place with the Tradewinds behind your back in emerging markets? I just got done watching a YouTube of Boise, Idaho. They said that the prices have gone up 30 something percent in the past year.

I’m not a fan of Boise by any means. I know it’s like people are moving out there, but. I think the reason why I’m not a big buyer of it is because when I, when I looked up the population, it’s barely anything, it’s a very small tertiary market at the end of the day.

I want to usually invest in a place that at least half a million population or greater. And a lot of people that move there or California, and so they can remote work. But what happens when. No, the bosses want everybody to come back to work, which I feel like will happen at some point. I think some people, they like to invest off headlines, but if you asked me I am not hugely bullish on a place like Boise long-term.

So next came from an article done by Harvard and they analyze are millennials so different than the generations before them. So there’s four major differences or things that have talked about. So first is marital status. They said millennials are less likely to get married than earlier generations.

I was reading, I forget where I heard it, but like they said, divorce rate through the pandemic is down, but then they said, it’s because people are getting married in the first place. So this article confirms that too, as far as home ownerships. Millennials have been less likely to be owners than previous generations of the same age.

The gaps between them of narrowing home-ownership at the age of 30, among the early nails was about 41% when it was 50.5% of budget X-ers at this point. So less people buying houses, and this is what we like. Hey, Rutgers for life guys. Keep doing it. Average personal income, despite the popular media patrol of struggling millennials, their average personal income has surpassed that of earlier generations as their age into the 30th.

Now, I don’t know if they took into account inflation cause you know how these articles are never really done by data, people that is more English majors that kind of just look at stuff and don’t really adjust for inflation and things like that. Maybe that had to do with also the poor early millennials were the ones that came into a 2008, 2010 type of job market post recession.

I don’t know. Multi-family residence shares. Millennial generation is about living in multifamily housing far more frequently than the boomers did. They’re falling their parents’ migration into single family homes and millennials are not forever young and it’s time for many to events that they might have to live and get a bigger space.

And that costs a lot with these types of single family homes. Tax changes now, Biden is asking Congress to enact legislation that would disallow 10 31 exchanges for gains greater than 500,000. Now this will change probably several times before it really gets solidified, but I think if they let people on their $500,000, 10 31 exchange go, I think

that’s a fair deal, not to get political or anything. Those people who have like left properties appreciate greater than half a million million dollars. They’re Asante. And, I’m all for wealthy people who are not smart and especially not motivated. That was just very indicative of second generation wealth.

So lose it and give it to those who Work harder and actually put focus into growing their wealth and wealth management. What’s the same 90 something percent of wealth leaves. So family Intuit to be generations. I dunno, I guess some people would argue with me that they deserved it.

I don’t know, but I just see a lot of. Trust fund kids and they just don’t deserve the wealth. They squandered it and sadly for them. They’re not motivated to do anything about it. One big thing that I saw in a year, this is probably not going to affect too many people, but it’s something to be aware of as the caring interest plays a role in every private equity investment, where the mutual fund leaders.

They get paid on carry interest. If you’ve ever heard of the term 220, that’s how the industry standard compensation where fund managers or mutual funds, they get like 2% asset management fee to keep the lights on, but they also get 20% of the upside for managing your money.

So that’s called carried interests. So right now, the carried interest is taxed differently. Where in the future, Biden’s looking to tax that at a higher rate, who knows how this will come out, I think it’s gonna spook out some of the rats in a way. The, each of fund folks, the big players are going to find another way for them to take compensation.

Cause for awhile, They were hiding a lot of their compensation, like at a lower tax rate under this carried interest benefit. So next time you want to sound cool in front of your friends. When you actually have a real lifeline party, you can discuss the benefits of the carry interests of wealthy fund managers.

Porter one completions. This is the construction from CPR E so RAC 2020. I think it’s obvious, like construction fell way off. Some people could say because of the commodities, lumber prices went way up, but it’s just a sign of the times. Uncertainty makes people stop building. It makes people stop taking risks.

And I think it’s a great time to build right now because prices are going up and again, the fundamental, so it’s the same, people need a place to live, but it’s just interesting to see the trends and like how there’s healthy building. Maybe some people would say over supply or over-building we definitely didn’t ever hit over supply.

We’re still at a housing deficit. But how things just slowed way down quarter one 20, 22 quarter one of 2021.

We said before a Warren buffet is very hyper aware of inflation. And so is his other older elderly friend, Sam Zell, who I like to watch. And Pete what he does from time to time, he says he’s buying gold with. Inflation reminiscent of the seventies says obviously one of the natural reactions is to buy gold.

He said, and it Bloomberg television interview. It was very funny because I spent my career talking about why would you want to own gold? It has no income. It has costs to store. And yet when you see the basement of the currency, you say, what am I going to hold on to? So this is where I’m going to I agree with inflation, but I disagree on though. What the beans, I think the way to do duet is with real estate. And I think at some point cryptocurrency will probably lead to wrong gold as the means, or mitigating against inflation. Right now I think cryptocurrency is a trillion dollars where gold is around 10 times that, so it’s nowhere near more than gold, but it’s the fastest passive asset to get up to that one.

Trillion mark, thus far as history. If I were to put a bet, I put it on crypto over overcoat, but I like real estate because it pays the income in the process. Commercial property, executive reports, the top five Sunbelt markets for industrial construction. Number one, Dallas, number two, Houston, number three, Phoenix.

Number four in an empire, which is out there in San Bernardino, California, Colton, California, and number five Fs Dallas Houston, Phoenix empire office.

Another article from Harvard university. If you guys looking for a good read, these guys don’t get too much notoriety, but these guys pump us good articles. Not really thought provoking once too. So they said here are millennials leaving cities. They say yes, but young adults are not. So I have a graph year of how the different age ranges are changing from the top 50 MSA, which are the bigger cities to smaller MSCs and how it’s transitioning over time.

I don’t know. Some of this stuff is I think people are moving out of the cities into the suburbs. Because when people would rather be in less crowded areas, there’s no point to commuting all this time. People don’t need to be in the same office as they once did back in the stone age before zoom and all these interim, even in February email, or when everybody had to get on a conference call, that was a big technological boost. But I feel like, young people. They still want to be where it’s boffin, right? Where the big cities are now, some of the smaller MSEs are having more uptown type of fun, leisure life areas. But I think regardless either in one camp or the city or the suburbs, I’m neither, I’m like populations going up, both are increasing both ways.

So new mark had a report here. This is from their multifamily capital for where they cited the lack of housing supply. The can line is the case. Should the us national home price index, which has been steadily increasing for a decade. No surprise. There. And the blue lines are the buck, the supply of hall, which went down in the past year.

And that is the reason why residential prices are higher. I wouldn’t say that there’s more demand. I don’t know if it’s more, I dunno if it’s less, but what I am searching and it can be measured is monthly supply of houses again, supply and demand. That’s what dictates the price. The supply is down.

Therefore, even if it’s more or a little less demand, the price goes up and that’s what you’re seeing. House prices go across the country. It makes absolutely no sense to me. That’s why I don’t do residential real estate because it’s based on emotion. You’re not really seeing this type of run up in the commercial world.

All right. So this next article from John Burns real estate consulting. So they forecasted how the affordability, which is defined as the. Medium parcel of income and the annual household costs, which includes mortgage plus taxes, insurance, and mortgage insurance for it equal to 80% of the median home price.

So in a nutshell, all affordable are houses based on what people can afford today. In 2005, 2006, you had a scale of 10. In 2009 to 2012, you had a scale of zero and it’s stead means the past decade it’s been going up and down, but steadily moving up to over the media where we are now we’re at baseline five and John Burns is forecasting that in the next few years, it will be keep going up and up to almost to where we were pre recession.

So I think people are scared to death that the recession is here moving. I don’t think based on this chart right here, we’re still another handful of years away. If you’re sitting on the sidelines, you’re probably going to miss out on one of the best bull markets in your lifetime postman, but Hey, we just want to see and watch the wave pass you by that’s your own life to deal with.

But I think the one risk that is looming is there’s a lot of people in forbearance. And for a lot of these people, they went in forbearance. The thing that sucks about forbearance is not like your payments stop big pile up. So people could be looking at, and you’re from like 10 to $20,000 of built up payments that they have to pay when the forbearance burns off, which you would think would be happening soon with.

The country, 50% vaccinated, everything opening up again. You got a hundred something. People at the Indy 500, you got real people at festival game. It’s things are opening up again. Therefore you would think the government would be like, all right, guys, y’all got to pay your rents again.

You got to pay your mortgages again. The freebie dance is over. And the theory is that it’s going to trigger a lot of foreclosures and on my last podcast with George Newbury, which you’ll see here in the next month of the latest update with HP, we’re going to be walking through the financials.

I asked George, Hey, what do you think about all the residential stuff? And he feels like there was definitely going to be a lot of foreclosures happening in disk and possibly a cool off the obscenely hot residential. Properties. And honestly, I don’t really care because I don’t own a primary residence.

And I invest in commercial real estate, which is a little bit insulated from all that madness and emotion in the residential world. But I’m not really interested in it, but if I was betting, I feel like in the next year or two, you’re going to see the prices start to cool off. And people get foreclosed.

And I think that’s why it’s smart to own commercial assets because they all get the rent.

If you guys haven’t checked out our mastermind group, the family office on a mastermind, check it out and apply it. Simple passive cashflow.com/journey. Prices are going to be going up here in the next month. So join now for it goes up just like a house. Price keeps going up. You’re going to what she did it six months ago.

And if you guys are still trying to buy your first rental property, check out the incubator and the rental e-course by going to simple passive cashflow.com/turnkey and simple passive cashflow.com/incubator. But again, if you guys are accredited investors already got in your portfolio, boy. Look to joining our group of accredited investors in the family office upon a mastermind, we are the only pure passive accredited investor.

Nope. And one of the question always happens is people are like, I don’t have the time for that. I’m like, dude, you don’t have the time not to do this. Like the time commitment is just like a few hours every single month. But the big thing is we put you in the ethos of 50, 60 other pure passive accredit investors, and you build a relationships with the right people, none of this, going out to the local trolling on some fee internet form with a bunch of broke guys wasting your time on the one time that your spouse lets you to go outside the house or the one weekend that you can go to some kind of conference the year.

Like trust me, I’ve been there. I’ve wasted so many weekends of my life. So many thousands of dollars going to fake real estate conferences, just to find other people that are rogue, trying to get unbroken, to have that get rich mentality. You’re not going to find another group like this who are already high net worth accredited.

You’re passive investors that have good paying jobs and understand that the highest and best use is at their job, but they want to understand the systems of analyzing syndication deals, the tax, the legal and the network. Of other pure passives like yourself. So check that out. That’s all I’m going to say about that.

A little bit, update on my life as we transition to what I’d been up to. Something I’ve been doing for growth this past month these are short the monthly definitely fly by. We’re already halfway through 2020. Yesterday or a couple of days ago, Memorial day, I did the birth challenge once again.

And this year I didn’t deal with the weight fast. My fitness has been sucking as a plate as I have not been going to the gym. I just do the zoo workouts, which had been very convenient and it really good for productivity on my business side, because I don’t go to the gym for an hour a day.

But I don’t have that peer group around me to peer pressure, me to putting more weight on the bar or shaming me that at the last person. So I probably got to get back into gym, but for the Murph challenge, which is a mile run, a hundred pull-ups, 200 push-ups and 300 air squats. And there’s me, the arrows pointing to me.

That’s me in the middle of one of my 300 air squats there, as you can see, I am pretty much at parallel, so nobody can give me any crap for that. So that was my thing for growth this week. How did I contribute back? I’m seeing my mission these days that help people get more educated about this stuff and.

There’s so many people out there that are accredited that kind of wastes their time buying rental properties. Again, if you guys are younger and like when I was in my twenties and your network is under half a million dollars, it’s like adolescents. You have to go through the stage of wanting rental properties, but there’s a message on our Facebook group that somebody left on one of their tenants, as they’re doing the move out, their last tenant accidentally left their handgun on the kitchen.

Countertop and the property manager freaked out and this is not something like an accredited investors should deal with, this type of stuff. Move off to bigger and better things that are more passive or liability, debt and guarantee.

Another thing I like helping people out is, I think it upsets me when I see a lot of young people under a quarter million, half a million dollars network buying houses. Cause that’s not what they should be doing. It’s not a good use of money. And here’s a little meme of making fun of the Japanese people I’m Japanese.

So I think fun in Japan because they’re all happy when they want the 20, 20 Olympics, and that’s how a whole leadership is. Everyone’s yay. Congratulations. How’s your home. As it’s nice to be a whole honor. And then you move in and you realize the damn thing costs all this much.

You gave away this big chunk of money that you could have bought a handful of rentals with. You got this big mortgage payment, you have no cash flow, which is your oxygen, which is your ability to buy more rental properties or do syndication deals. And you’re house rich, but cash poor and you’re stuck.

And this is what society wants you to do. Your boss probably wants you to buy a house because once you buy a house you’re stuck, you’re slave to him. You have to do everything. He says as opposed to what I was, I didn’t listen to my boss. Cause I had rental properties. I could choose what I wanted to do.

Yeah. About this controversial subject. Go to simple, passive castro.com/home, but it’s one of my missions and contribution back, especially the young people being misled, some things that I’ve been proud of and derive significant off of, we closed the rig properties this past month.

First one was a small 96 unit in concert, Alabama, which was pretty screaming deal under market events by at least a few hundred dollars. And not just saying a few hundred dollars because most times when you hear that it’s never a few hundred dollars. It’s really like $125 really. But Donna is legit like $300 on market.

I think the average rents, or like in the high four hundreds per month, this for a classy property. Oh, he closed 126 units in Houston and then another 300 unit in Houston also, which has been our biggest property to date. Definitely moving up the the better assets scale and on one of our properties, we refinance.

To a lower rate, we paid a little bit paid like 13 grand, but we were able to lock up a $32,000 per year savings. I call that a pretty good cost benefit analysis. So we raked locked at 3.18 and we use the FHA model for those of you guys aren’t familiar with these. Normally we do Fannie and Freddie Mac.

FHA loans are longer. Amateurization 35 year app and lower rate would be a quarter point half a point less than their Fannie Mae Freddie Mac counterpart. The only problem with the FHA loans is that they take forever and a day to originally difficult in terms of uncertainty. This is.

Kind of what we deal with, right? Like I think all signs point to a good few years ahead of us. I’m very bullish on what you were going to see for GDP growth. The next sport into Porter after talking probably four to 7%, but what’s going to happen with the foreclosures and the residency. If I was ordering rental property right now, that is impacted by residential home prices.

I’d be a little uncertain right now. I don’t care because I own commercial assets. So the insulated from that, and actually benefits a little bit as people get foreclose, they got to come back to a class B or C apartment, but you’re always going to have times of uncertainty, but how can you move forward in a strategy where you’re hedged to the downside, but you can still partake in this case, the potential bull market.

Another uncertain thing we’re dealing with is the lumber prices, right? We’re trying to build 230 units apartments. And this is a one of the security cameras of we’ve got the structure up and we just bought the last trunch of lumber. So we’re good, we locked in that lumber price.

We paid the higher price because the team felt you know what? We don’t feel like the price of lumber is going down because when inflation is here, how else are we going to pay for all this government stimulus money? There’s several trillion dollars pumped into the system. And it’s been unprecedented, nothing like in 2008 was books, anything how it was in the last year, on the last thing in terms of love and connection.

I I’ll be honest. I haven’t left the house very often cause they’re having a kid here soon and I don’t want to be the person to mess it up for everybody. I got my COVID shot. I got really sick for a day. But I really would like to be able to meet everybody again. I don’t know if I’m going to be able to see everybody this year, but for sure.

You guys out there. But the 20, 22 retreat on the calendar or Martin Luther king weekend here at Honolulu, Hawaii for all indications, I believe it’s a goal. So put it on the calendar and we will look forward to meeting all of you guys. I think I’ll be on a lot of good feedback from the virtual mastermind this year.

And a lot of people realized, wow, I didn’t realize this was such a big thing and more importantly, So it’s a hydraulic people, high net worth professionals, people first-generation wealth that, are frugal, good values. I want to pass it down the right way to their families legacies.

And that’s what we’re all about. I don’t think you’ll find a higher quality caliber of folks that are cool and no better place than coming up to on a little for white and hanging out for a weekend in january 20, 22, if not, hopefully I see you guys before that, but I think that is something circled on my calendar that is going to happen.

As you guys always like to see the things I’ve been buying and life and Sam or buy much stuff, because everything is for that kid. That was baby stuff coming in the mail. I stopped even checking the mail personally, because I know it’s not for me, but I did buy these Feasible your glasses.

Cause it’s been getting hot here and I don’t like my drinks to get water dumped by the ice. So I bought these twenty-five bucks, not a bad do dad’s spent for myself. Do you guys have any questions here? Type it into chat, but we get some of it here. So Justin has. What about the 1% physician loans?

These things they’re just marketing tools. The lenders just tell you, they’re like physician notes. I’ve been, then the next guy comes. They’re like, oh, these are the teacher lawns. Yeah. And then they say, oh, these are for the engineers. It’s like when you go to the car dealership, they ask oh, do you work for we have a government, it’s just marketing to make you feel significant.

But. No, they’re not really that great the best molds are the governments Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and that’s the baseline. All these other loans are just not as good as that they’re priced up in a way. But that’s just my take on it. And this depends what circles we hang out in, right?

If you’re in single family, home Bora with bunch of non-accredited investors. They’ll call these Fannie Mae Freddie Mac loans, the golden tickets. They’re so good, but they’re not that great. Fannie Mae Freddie Mac loans. Aren’t that great? Yeah, it’s good that it’s 30 year debt and it’s semi low rate, but it’s the fact that the government is backing the loan.

Should it fall through? It doesn’t discount the loan that much. The biggest thing, it’s an investor’s buying the right deal. That’s what’s really going to move the needle, then finding them all the bones are okay for the most part.

And then, so wrapping up here, make sure you guys check out the tax guides that we’ll pass a castro.com/tax and get the free light remote investor. E-course by going to simple pass the castle.com/club. And we’ll see you guys that stuff and everybody. Bye.

May 2021 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/0JKNzum9mr8

What’s up everybody. We are going to be doing the monthly market update for May, where we go over the. Latest happenings across the headlines of what’s impacting our bottom line as investors and what to be on the lookout for in the future. My name is Lanco Oka. I read simple passive cashflow.com, currently owner of 4,500 rental units and the creator of the content@simplepassivecashflow.com and civil past cashflow podcasts.

Before we get started, make sure you guys go to the new YouTube channel. The creative is what a fun channel not so quite made for accredited investors, but for the younger kids out there, just getting started under a quarter million, half a million dollars net worth currently 90,000 views so far check that out.

It is called enriched uncle. On YouTube channel at 1,900 subscribers. And that is me, the girl version of me. So let’s get started. Oh yeah. If you want to check out the podcast, it’s on YouTube, iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify, Google play. So if you teach it once before you get started into the news, first one here teaching point passive losses.

So a lot of the K ones are coming back to vestors. Now K ones are the simplified form of some of you guys have rental properties. They are the super cumbersome, confusing schedule. Ease. K ones are so much more simpler. Here, an example investor put in, actually, this is mine. I put in $60,000 into this one investment and got a $47,000 deduction in the first year or 70% of what I put in as a first year.

Some of you run a property owners know you can deduct the pace of the property over 27 years. They get that paper loss, but with syndications, private placements, You can do a big cost say and get a huge amount, more of passive losses. And we are very giddy over all the cool things we can do with these passive losses, which you can check out more@simplepassivecashflow.com slash tax.

You guys are tired of flipping houses. I know I would be is a pain in the butt to do that stuff. You guys need to act for credit. If you guys are getting on the path to accredited investor status your boat to this website, simple passive cashflow.com/burr, B R, which stands for buy rent, rehab refinance for Pete.

I’m not a big fan of this and you read this article to find out why. Now there are a lot of different potential changes coming through Congress. One of those things is called these exclusionary zoning processes. So what this is to say it in a semi PC way is basically what we used to have.

This country needs more workforce housing, right? BC, and even call it D class housing because we have a growing population in America and a growing lower middle-class. The wealth gap is getting bigger and bigger every day. Now in the past, there’s this kind of this saying not in my backyard, right?

The rich people are like, yeah, we don’t want these like low income or semi low income apartment complexes or these basically the projects. And we want to keep them separate. Now this none of my backyard concept is trying to be going away. And I think this is good, right? This is exactly what I invest in, good, lower income properties scattered throughout decent areas.

When you have the, not in my backyard concept going on you, that’s how you have Guedel’s that’s so you have the projects, right? There’s huge segregation between the rich area and the super poor area. This is all stuffed into the big stimulus plans to help produce or affordable units, which this country needs much more of it.

Guess what folks rents are going back up? National rents are beginning to upward trend after being flat-lined in 2020 with the pandemic. So hashtag rents do, if you’re a landlord, rejoice,

we’re going to get into some of the headlines here. And these are some of the macro economics. I think all of the investors like when we dive in, highlight this for them, but I think it’s no secret that people are getting the heck out of the high price areas, such as the Bay area sample say San Francisco.

Los Angeles, Southern California, moving to these more pro economic areas for growth areas where the cost of living is just a lot less. And there is just as good job prospects there. So these are six of the places. A lot of people are moving towards air Phoenix, Arizona, Austin, Texas, Las Vegas, Dallas, Texas, Miami, and Atlanta, Georgia.

And where are they coming from? I think. California San Jose and Los Angeles are more of the likely candidates, especially for the Texas and West coast markets, such as Phoenix and for Atlanta and Miami. A lot of people are moving away from your Chicago, DC from those areas. And if you guys are checking this out on the podcast form, which this also gets released once a month we have this we have nice slides and cool pictures for you guys to check out on the YouTube channel.

Also, if you haven’t yet joined our Facebook group the GUI, which we have, we engage in conversation on these topics there moving onto the Bloomberg article where San Francisco residents cause there’s a big Exodus leaving the Bay area. A lot of them are moving to Sachar Bentall, which is adjacent which is an obvious fit for people who don’t want to totally relocate out of the area.

But a lot of them are moving to Dallas, Austin, Houston, Texas, and Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona. In addition to Las Vegas. Yes. So more demographic trends. Now, what we’ve got displayed here on the screen are the red States of the top States for outbound migration. Red is bad and green is good in this case. So that’s where the inbound migration is coming in.

I think a lot of investors have been clamoring about Boise, Idaho, but you got to remember about Boise. It’s still under a quarter million population, which is absolutely nothing. In my opinion, it’s smaller than a tertiary market. I won’t really invest in places unless it’s maybe half a billion or greater population, unless it’s a really good deal, of course, but I still want to stay with solid tertiary markets.

A little bit of humor for you guys. Not endorsing any drugs, but come the simple passive casel.com. You want to be happy?

So Yahoo finance reports that the fed holds rates near zero notes, rising inflation as U S economy strengthened. So I think this is no secret interest rates are still on a historic low. They are creeping up a little bit, but still all time lows for the most part. But inflation is here. Inflation is here.

Folks, if you don’t believe it, this is the game that governments play, where they go into all this debt. The United States has the best military. So we have the Liberty of creating all the free money we can create so that all we’re trying to do is basically inflate our debts away. When your parents bought that 30 year mortgage way back when, that debt is nothing compared to debt.

That’s essentially what the government is doing today, which I think is pretty smart. A lot of people get all wrapped up in what’s the debt number today. It really doesn’t matter my opinion. But how I’m playing it and where I’m putting my money. It was my mouth is I’m buying assets that go up with the pace of inflation.

I think one thing is certain those people who. Keep money in assets that don’t rise with inflation are going to be the losers. People with cash in the bank will be the losers of some more population growth statistics from the Yardi matrix. Where are, where is the rent growth went up and up? I think a lot of the investors, they key in all types of different data sources like.

Job growth, they key in on certain employers. But to me, I think the biggest thing that I look in just terms of a numbers perspective is what are the rents doing on a quarterly and annual basis? And this kind of sums it up right here. The rent’s still going up five, 6% in the inland empire Sacramento, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tampa are the top five.

The places where they’re decreasing New York, San Jose, San Francisco, Seattle DC are the users.

This is just another same data, but broken up based on the left side, you have all asset classes. And then in the middle, you have this lifestyle asset class, which is more your luxury, your higher end stuff. And then what we like to invest in is this asset class club renter by necessity. In other words, people got it right here because they don’t have too much money.

They’re stuck paying $500 a month for a one bedroom to $1,500 a month, a lot better at that facility or work first housing. Whereas some of our clients, they decided that they don’t want to have this house. It’s too much time it’s old, right? So they’d rather move into a luxury, wanted three bedroom apartment, get all these luxuries, get a pool that they don’t have to clean, even get trash valet.

That’s a non-traditional approach to spending on money on where good accounts and getting money out of that down payment that, that equity and getting it working to build a stable, financial future for their families. As opposed to doing it, the traditional way of buying a primary residence to live and seeking that big down payment.

And there’s dead, lazy equity, not doing Jack and also for going on. Now, they have that big monthly payment and then other stuff to hear some rent, growth trends from some of the top markets. I think, a lot of these top five markets I don’t invest in Sacramento in an empire.

I don’t think I ever invest there. It’s just too expensive for the rent that I get there. Again, I follow this threshold of 1% men to value ratio greater. So you take the monthly rent divided by the purchase price, and I need to get something that’s 1%. So I’m able to cashflow on a monthly basis. Because I don’t really invest off of the appreciation potential of it.

Great. If it happens, but I consider that gambling. So folks who’ve have rental properties in Seattle, California say they have a lot of appreciation. Good for you guys. Easy come easy, go. I want to invest for cash. Okay. Those people investing in that nature are like I said, gambling, and these are the, what I call them. On sophisticated or dumb money or in this graphic, John Burns calls these, the investor mania 2.0 categories. There’s four of them. So the first one is the single family home landlords. Now, the reason why these are the dumb money is because it’s easy to get a rental property, anybody can just get into it. And there’s a high competition value, and this is why we try and buy apartments that are higher than five to $10 million. So we can arise above these types of mom and pop investors. The next one that I think everybody thinks about when they think of investor mania is the house flippers, right?

The HGTV stuff it makes for great TV I’ve met, but you’re a hundred percent reliant on the fact that the prices are going to keep going up. Sometimes if you’re flipping in the right location, like a secondary market, like Birmingham, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Kansas city, little rock. You have the exit strategy to be able to cashflow on the property with it 20% down payment.

But other than that, you’re bleeding money. If things go wrong, you have to switch to a forward strategy. This is why in our group, we do not flip or do Andy’s first strategies. Another one is foreign investors buying secondary. All right, this is the international dub money. And they’ve got a lot of money.

They can do what they want. And then home ownership, helpers. So these are the people that have both rental home groups or shared home equity platform.

Another Yardi report here. This is showing the average units absorb per property. So this is where do we call it? Absorption. So basically how much stuff you have there? How quick is it going to get the stuff. And as you can see, the blue was 2019 and the absorption, it was a lot more than what it was, and it was a lot higher than in 20.

Watch it.

Red cafe came up this full table of the top 30 hottest rental markets. And what’s a hot rental market. They defined it as the same thing as absorption is another way of describing it, but the inverse of it is vacancy days. If there was a vacant unit, how long did it go before getting filled?

Some of the hottest and the countries are in the low twenties. So it takes just under a month to lease up that property.

Some of the occupancies on some of these markets are in the 96 to 98% range. We like to run our properties in the mid to low nineties. Anything higher than that. It’s just a sign that you’re a restaurant high enough. You’re not charging for your properties. You want to attract the best tenants.

And you want to always be pushing rents,

Yahoo finance also reports Warren buffet is right. Relation is running Rapids. And I quote, here we are seeing substantial inflation says Warren buffet said this at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting. We are raising prices. People are. Raising prices to us and it is being accepted.

And another quote here, people have money in their pocket and they pay higher prices. It’s almost a buying frenzy. Buffett said noting that the economy is red hot. So there you heard it there from Oracle of Omaha but a buffet knows what he’s talking about. And unfortunately, this whole pandemic it’s hurt a lot of people and yes, we want to be sensitive to that, but we also want to call it the fact that a lot of folks, especially on the higher end, the white collar workforce out there maybe some of us the same to this reporting.

We’re doing pretty well, right? If you’re able to keep your job and work from home, Yes, you weren’t able to both traveling and going on a nice vacation this year and pay for those sports tickets, the football tickets that you wanted to. That’s a little annoying, but overall, people are putting money in their pockets.

These stimulus checks are going out. It’s just going to calf savings. I think it’s unfortunate that it’s again, it’s the rich getting richer and the poor getting forwarder and divergence of wealth between classes. And here the government is trying to do a good thing, but Oh my goodness.

I fear that this is becoming a 401k 2.0. So the headline read here is secure 2.0, which stance or some kind of governments trying to help people save for their retirement on the secure two on our retirement bill clears committee and move closer to passage. By no means is this finalize and it’s going to be different ways to get it to change, but you can go to our Facebook page and download the actual transcription of

what that document is at this point. Like I said, it’ll probably change many times over, but. My attitude on this is I’m a little worried because this is just like the damn 401k again. And to me, the 401k wasn’t really that great of a deal. I see it more as a way of the government getting what’s with all of these brokerages.

And now these brokerage, which are able to sell all their products of mutual fund projects, which are fee Laden. And have carried interest on their side, where they get compensated, whether or not the price goes up. And ultimately, this is what robs a lot of hardworking Americans of their retirement. Why else can you just buy a rental property?

You make 20, 30% on your money. If you don’t believe me, go to simple passive castro.com/returns. Take a look at that video. Or I’d break down all the numbers how you’re making money, my cashflow, which is the monthly revenue, the tax benefits, the mortgage paid down and the property appreciation are you making money four ways again, you want to take my word for it?

20 to 30% a year, if you don’t trust me, go look@mymathandofthepassivecashflow.com slash returns. But this is very early on. When I bought my first rental, I was like, what the heck? How’d you make it like eight to 10% in all my stock stuff, the stuff that I’m supposed to do, but I’m doing so much better in these like a simple rental property, a turnkey rental of all things that aren’t that great.

And then I discovered the church, right? If everybody just did what I did and bought a handful of rental properties, they’d be financially free, very quickly. I would society function. But, and how would all the wall street executives get all their salaries and build these big buildings in the middle of New York or all these city centers in the financial districts.

We can’t have that happen. We need all the American students that put their money in mutual funds so we can just feed on the debt in their state. But anyway, I digress. If you guys want to join our community, we have the founding office Ohana mastermind to learn more, go to simple, passive cashflow.com.

Slash journey. This group is pretty much a accredited investor only. So million-dollar network and above, or you make over $250,000 a year. You get access to all the products that I’ve created and doing the remote investor. I-Corps syndication LP guide 12 month investor plan, shade line hacking guy. But the power of this group is that network, right?

So we do biweekly zoom conference calls. You get access to the entire library and we have more than eight deal vetting group, but we are here to share best practices for tax legal, infinite bank and legacy creation. And the big thing is the network, right? Magical things happen. You get other like-minded working professionals around you that are pure passive investors.

If you guys are new, check out the incubator@simplepassivecashflow.com slash incubators here, you’ll learn how to buy your first rental property. If you’re just starting out. Now a little bit of background of what I’m doing, firstly, in my own life, every month I try to do a recap on what I’ve been working on in terms of these six categories versus growth.

So I’ve been trying to whoop thing. So it’s like this bracelet I wear, but it’s not like some like the Fitbit, I think it’s lame, but this thing is pretty cool. Like I’m a big techie and into fitness. And I haven’t seen anything like that. This it does her HRV. And it also tells you if you can hit an art at your workout today, that’s what this recovery thing is.

It tells you what your HRV is. Ideally, you want to have a lower HRV, tells you how much you’ve worked out that day. So this is great for me, cause I’m always in self-preservation mode. I don’t want to work out too hard and it tells me, Hey, you should hit a seven or a 14 today because your recovery is good.

And it also is a sleep coach. It also tells you how much sleep you should be getting. And the cool thing about this is we can create teams. So I joined my CrossFit gym. I have a household that I’m a part of. So we compete. It’s fun, it’s growth, it’s something different. I’m always moved to get better of how do I get contribution in my life while I started the rich uncle YouTube channel.

And this has been an idea for quite some time. Simple passive cashflow caters towards a credited investors today. We help people buy their first rental properties as turnkey rental rentals. And then eventually it’s become a credit investor at beyond that’s where the private placements and syndications and all these high net worth wealthy people, tactics come in.

But what do you do if you’re just starting out, right? You just graduated college, like how I did back in 2007 and I had a good paying job. But what do you do? Where do you start off? Cause everybody’s telling you all this nonsense about the 401k, each of fun diversifying and 25% international stocks, 25% midcap, all this type of stuff.

I am tired of listening to people who don’t know what they’re talking about and still working their job. The idea is don’t take financial advice from people who are not financially free. So I quit my job. So you know what? I’m just going to make this rich uncle channel and try and help people the way I think I can.

And if you guys are interested, check it out. Maybe if you guys have younger folks in your life pass it on. It’s supposed to be a little bit more fun and a little bit less dry than the content we’ve covered here. We’ll pass passive capsule land. There, I am trying to help. Get them away from their other coworkers at work, telling them to, Hey, if you wait till you’re 67 years old, you can get a lot more money from your pension fund.

That on drives me crazy. Another category that I was trying to do this month was significance. We passed 90,000 views on the rich people channel and why do I do this? I was super upset that everybody’s putting all their eggs in like this pensions, which. If you’re on Hawaii, 55% of it is funded.

If you’re in California, 69% of it’s funded my friends in Washington, here’s this actually pretty good. But for the most part, these States are hoping that you don’t make it to your average life expectancy. So they’ll have enough money and that’s messed up. My most, you guys are pretty prudent. So you guys have your own 401ks and stuff like that, but yeah.

What I realized is all that 401k stuff is a bunch of nonsense. It’s like a cafeteria of garbage investments. And in a way these brokerages are in boots with the government, right? Put your money in this 401k stuff. So you’re captive to all these garbage mutual funds where there’s high fees where you don’t see them and are frankly like you don’t get that much return.

You could get, do so much better. So here I am, I’m giving you that red pill to help you as you get educated. So you can make these better decisions and learn how the wealthy do things, because it’s not much different than how we do it. How you’re taught. We’re actually it is they’re different, but it’s not something that the average guy can implement themselves.

How did I get a low uncertainty in my life? I’ve committed to. Investing a lot of money into Bitcoin crypto. When, a little, certainly anywhere from one to 5% of my network here is a little table of the number of, I guess the way they read this is like your investment level based on your net worth.

And potentially it goes all the way up to maybe a quarter to a big chunk of your network as a very huge Part of your portfolio. Me Amy I’m in this one category, right? Because for me, I operate real estate and that’s what I know when I try and stay in my lane. I have a couple upcoming podcasts on Bitcoin and crypto.

I am a libertarian and I believe in the currency as a way of taking back control from countries and putting it back into people. So I do see it as something like that. And I do see it as a sustainable thing. And right now I see it as a land grab, but yeah, definitely not going to go crazy with this stuff, but like anything, educate yourself as opposed to just opening up an app and asking your buddy what they’re investing in.

How I balance that uncertainty is with certainty. And if you’ve taken a look at some of my past tax returns, you’ve noticed I don’t pay very much taxes. Because I use passive losses from my investing to offset my passive income and I try and lower my ordinary income as much as possible. You can learn more about this.

It’s simple, passive cashflow.com/ . You can also see my tax returns on there, but here’s a good one. On J 80,000 investment got $176,000 of first year passive losses. That’s almost like a hundred percent return of losses right there. Some people think it’s kinda messed up that the wealthy don’t pay taxes, but then again, not everybody’s pulling out their wallet, I’m putting money into each of these K ones represent a business venture that helps low income middle-class families with housing making, improving their community.

And that’s where the tax code is written. It is what it is. Those are the rules that government wants you to invest, especially in things like real estate and the way the IRS says it. If you do not invest well then bro, you got to pay some taxes, right? If you’re a doctor making 600 grand a year and you don’t invest to get losses and you don’t implement real estate professional status, do all these other things.

You got to pay taxes. That’s the rule? Lastly here how did I get a little loving connection in a world where I can’t see and yeah, you folks we’re having a baby. We did a book drive by shower, which I’m not super thrilled about the drive-by thing, but it is what it is. But there was I make all my social media stuff.

I know a lot of people that drives me crazy. Like it’s so lame. Like people have these quotes of like cash flow or passive income, like man’s boring. I make all my social media stuff and I try and keep it light. So fencing the perfect COVID sports masks, gloves stab anyone that gets closer than six feet.

And we try and network virtually, right? We’ve done this as a group within the foam and the incubator groups. Yeah, but, hopefully we can start the in-person events here soon. And if you guys want to learn more about that, join the mailing list and join the clubs that will pass a castle.com/club.

I normally tell people what I bought is that usually I like to go shopping Amazon, but I’ll be honest. I haven’t bought anything because I’ve been buying all this baby crap and I don’t even check the mail anymore because they know it’s not even for me anymore. But yeah, none of this was should have been construed as legal tax financial advice because I am power all your folks to think for yourself.

And now’s the time. If you guys have any questions, type it in, and this thing will feed it right to me. But Hey Craig, yes. Said I agree. The 401k is garbage. I think it was Craig that said, that the 401k is like signing a deal with the government that you don’t want to sign where the government ultimately has a lead over everything you’ve got.

So you know, the government’s got this big debt, right? All they have to do is say, Oh, now we’re going to tax this stuff at this rate. As all the baby boomers taking money out of their return. I thought that was a great way of explaining it. Craig, so thanks for that. Yeah, you mentioned the cares act was a golden opportunity to jailbreak money from the 401k.

I don’t know if you can still do it. You can backdate it for 2020, but if you guys can read the article to get ideas and talk to your tax professional, if you need a referral, let me know. But. You can go to simple passive cashflow.com/covid to learn more about that cares act, Joe breaking a hundred grand from your retirement account.

Oh, somebody wrote a question. Are you noticing tenants wanting an extra or meeting that other rooms so they can have their home office separate from their bedroom? Do you think that an ongoing trend is this a B. Class and above class thing. So generally, like I think people are putting more money into their living conditions is evident by like the substantial loss of home renovations going in.

And I think this is partly to do with residential real estate prices going up. There is a trend people, they’re building larger. Bedroom unit mixes. So two bedrooms and three bedrooms, not a huge amount, more, but like very small, right. As these trends develop.

I don’t know what the mix is. We get the engineers and we figured out what we just copied, what the big developers are doing in terms of 27%, one bedroom, 30%, two bedrooms, or whatever that mix may be. But definitely I think this is more of a B plus class or Hey, minus class thing, a lot of our tenants are hanging anywhere from $700 to $1,400 a month.

The class B minus class tenants. And a lot of these guys don’t really work from home. And we have a few properties where we did have a lot of more white collar blue collar mix. But for the most part, a lot of our tenants are working those jobs where they need to get out of the house or they’re essential workers they’re the backbone of America having an extra room that’s, that’s first world problems.

I think that’s more of a, your E-Class kind of vicinity. And if you guys like this, let me know. And hopefully we can do this again. And if you guys want to join us next time, you can check us out on the YouTube channel.

And the Facebook group is where we will live stream this. So another question here in one of your podcasts or investors calls, you had recommended not to deploy more than $250,000 in a year. Is there any checks reason for this? I don’t remember the context of this. I think what I was getting at, lot of investors low need that rich dad, poor dad book, that purple book that is the red pill of finance for a lot of people.

And they’re like, Oh my God. I got to get out of this, like crap, been investing in, for all my life and they go bonkers, they’re going into all these alternative investment, private placements and syndication deals. And I’ve had people that invested half a million, million dollars at nine months.

I personally am Whoa that’s a lot of them investing, cause the thing is what’s hard about syndications. Anybody can put one together, right? Anybody can invest in it, but like in terms of putting them together, Anybody can do it, you just pay a through $30,000 and supposedly you can magically do it.

So I say that jokingly, because not everybody should do it. And I sure as heck am going to invest in those deals, but those sponsors how do you determine who’s legit? It’s really hard to determine who’s legit and if it were me, I would take the approach of putting my money in. Going with the minimum and seeing how it works.

Call me crazy, but I think that’s a prudent strategy, especially when, lot of people that come into our group, they’ve been investing in the regular 401k stuff that traditional investing model for 10, maybe even 40 years, we have a lot of old people in our group. Maybe I shouldn’t say that, we have a huge range of ages in our group.

Don’t throw it away on some bozo who you just met. I just, today someone just mentioned that, yeah, they lost a hundred thousand dollars investing with this other sponsor and they’re happy that they found this, but that takes some luck. And I think to really feel confident to knowing that you’re putting your money with good stewards is to build your network with other passive investors.

So that you feel comfortable knowing that, other people have had good success in the past, but likely a lot of us and myself included, we don’t have any people who were investing in these types of alternative investments. Most of the people that we associate with or go to work with, or our families or parents just invest in the traditional mainstream retail stuff.

So we don’t have that network. But what I’m saying is that’s why we created simple passive cashflow. So that, that there is an opportunity to find like-minded individuals. And when you do, that’s when magical things happen. And if you want to stop screwing around, that’s where you join the family office on a mastermind, the fault I’m just saying, but, I think that’s the way into it.

And maybe I said the $250,000 in one year thing, I think maybe where that came from was. Like maybe you can go on. So a handful of deals in that first year, within a minimum investments being anywhere from 50 to a hundred thousand dollars. So you could go onto a few deals and you can sit and wait and watch, see how the sponsor performs.

Did they run off with your money to Mexico? They say that they were going to do it quarterly distributions. That start when they started, when they said it was going to So that would be the way I would do it. When I started to buy rental properties, I bought my first three in Seattle.

And my big first pivot point as an investor was investing sight and scene in Birmingham, Atlanta, Indianapolis in 2012, 13 what did I do? I bought one property in Birmingham. I see how it worked. I pause for six months to a year, and then, you know what the damn thing works. So I’m loaded. I loaded all those Seattle properties that have poor cash cashflow.

And I went into and parlayed my money into those other investments. So to me, I’m not saying that you’re going to do this, but I liked the approach of getting proof of concept and then going all of them. And they’ll bark. You’re not old. You were actually very youthful at heart.

Any last questions here? But once going twice, you guys like it does content. Please join the clubs will pass the cashflow.com/club. You get access to the free e-course to start learning more about this stuff and check out the podcast. Again, all of these monthly webinars are held@simplepassivecashflow.com slash investor letter is where I house all these monthly webinars.

And thanks everybody. And we’ll see you next month. Right?

April 2021 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/boas1zxLgPo

All right. Welcome everybody. This is the April, 2021 monthly market update, or I go over all the latest happenings that impact real estate and by investment portfolio and our, I don’t know about yours. You guys want to check this out on the YouTube channel, go to school, pass a cashflow, search that and.

This, all the videos of all these past months are found @simplepassivecashflow.com/investorletter. So let’s get going the Easter egg this month. If you guys want to grab the free giveaway, but a simple passive cashflow.com/qrp  QRP quail. Ralph Paul. To get the free book to learn how to avoid UDFI and UBIT tax, you get kit.

When you start to invest with that type of accounts, your qualified retirement money in leverage investments, and you do want to use leverage, right? We all want up to a certain point, right? When you get the best returns, the cashflow But, yeah, I think if you were listening to our last office deal webinar, that was funny talking with the bank office folks.

A lot of don’t know what this QRP solo, 401ks and Roth IRAs. And we were laughing because the ultra high net worth don’t do that stuff makes, so it made me laugh quite a bit, but for a lot of you guys under $4 million network, A lot of your equity might be in your retirement accounts and this may be one way to get it out.

But I kinda think for most people, it just makes sense to take it out, but of course, therein lies the strategy and that’s why you listen to this full passive casual podcast and check us out and join the investor clubs. simplepassivecashflow.com/club and get all the insider secrets such as do I need to be using QLP or spokes.

All right. So first thing here, this is a sort of an indicator on TSA checkpoint screenings. So yeah, TSA, the security folks at the airport, this measure is a seven day moving average. And it is definitely coming back up as if March, April from the bowl, April 20, 20, over halfway there from the peak of where we used to be prior to 2020 in 2029.

So things are coming back slowly. We’re not, we’re like halfway there in terms of TSA stats. And if you guys are listening to this podcast form, , if you go to simple, positive cashflow podcasts, you want to get a glimpse of all the poor charts that I’ve put together here. And the flood graphics.

You could also check this out on our YouTube channel or it’s simple, passive cashflow.com/investor letter. Of course. Stimulus plan came out again under the $1.9 trillion one. My wife says, I asked her how many stimulus funds do you think there were? She was like three, cause I got three checks.

Really? I think there’s four or five by now. And there’s probably going to be, I’m guessing two, maybe three more to come later this year. Who knows? Maybe even next year. But yeah, I think seamless helps investors, right? That’s essentially just running up debt and the people who are going into deals with good debt, are they going to be the benefactors in the future, but here’s a little chart just checking yourself where you fall based on how many dependents you had come to you, but you guys are all smart.

You guys got your checks. You guys are cool. You guys do the direct deposit. Now, this is something interesting. Moving forward, not to say anything politically, actually I don’t see anything like that. I don’t really care one way or the other, but I do know Democrats typically spend more money in terms of stimulus dollars and which ultimately helped me, so I guess that’s a cool thing in the end, but. Senator Ben Cardin let a little things slip there on the hot mic. You said that Democrats will most likely, and I quote most likely use reconciliation on an infrastructure package. And basically what that is not that the Senate and the house is majority power going to the Democrats.

They can use this to bully their bills and stimulus packages through. So it is what it is. They have the edge actually in all the presidents, Democrat too. So all three branches of government going to the Democrats and you asked me, I don’t care. Look, guys, spend your time on making money at your job or investing your money.

And. Spend less time on worrying on things you can control, figure out where the puck is going go there. All right. Now I’ll probably get some hate mail or some trolls of the YouTube channel for that. But it is what it is anyway. A lot of folks are thinking that the us GDP is going to go gangbusters.

I think we’ve shown Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac stats here as one from the conference board where they are showing some upside projections, downside projections and the base projections actually. But I like to see the optimistic pessimistic, and then the baseline deals just to compare them.

But yeah, they’re expecting growth expectations to reach five to 6% for 2021. Due to COVID 19 release spending and the overall, things getting back and forth, both ends.

There’s some demographic trends mean this is no surprise to everybody that the green dots are where the top 10 population rank growth is. These are in no particular order going from the right to the left or East to West. Raleigh Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Fort worth Austin, San Antonio, Phoenix, Arizona, salt Lake city, and Las Vegas.

Those are the top 10. The bottom 10 are Los Angeles, orange County, Milwaukee, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Baltimore, New York city. Believe that’s new Haven and Philadelphia.

bigger pockets. I don’t know where these guys get their data from. But they said top cities for red growth in 2020. Number one, Houston, Texas Portland, Oregon, Dallas, Texas, Chicago, Illinois, St. Petersburg, Florida, Phoenix, Arizona, round rock, Texas, Oklahoma city, Scottsdale, Arizona and Helene, Texas. If you’re reading this chart, they’re saying Houston rent growth is going to go up 19%.

I don’t know where they’re getting their numbers from, but I’m just throwing out these percentages personally, but I’m just looking at the top 10 and Hey, these are good markets is the message that I’m pulling away. As an investor, John Burns put up the school article with five new home designs, thoughts and starts.

So things that are coming in terms of trends, things are going on. First one, healthy living. So less focusing on the materials you use to build the home and start focusing on creating a healthy lifestyle in the new home, such as low VOC materials. Yeah. Marketing should emphasize things such as better sleep and easy to clean surfaces throughout the design.

Rather than those certifications or low VOC materials. I guess what they’re saying is those lead platinum silver. I always thought that stuff is garbage in the first place. It was just like a contest of who could pay the most to these guys to give them the best score.

Actually, I shouldn’t say that, but. I guess what they’re saying is those certifications are being less and less important and getting back to the basics of music services and better sleep. Next thing rethinking five CS. So are they replacing the windows in the right location and homeowners have a strong preference about their entry design and most don’t want a front porch for planned conversations with their neighbor.

I guess that’s what a garage is for. You just opened the garage, driving close the garage. You don’t have to talk to anybody. You never have to get out, just go to your, or your cubicle at home. Go get, keep it go at work, go to your cubicle. That drives you around.

Number three, functional tech smart tech should make the home run smoothly from behind the scenes going away or the touchless tech and the voice says this that’s. Still have some runway for growth. I don’t know about you, but I still don’t trust. Mrs. S she always gets it wrong. This is a I’m learning how to control that one.

I’m not going to say it because things will start to go the largest opportunity for smart homes is tech that identifies me to issues before disaster strikes. I think maybe they’re talking about those fancy refrigerators that I don’t have that tells you when something is going bad or something like that.

I know none of the subs, I don’t have a full house like that because I rent and I’m happy. Sound insightful offices are historically been in the front of the house, which is exactly where consumers don’t want them. They want to put them in the back of the house upstairs with a window in front of the desk and wall behind the desk for effective video conferencing.

Interesting. Yeah, but this makes sense, right? They want to have their office in the back. Hidden, I guess young families will invest in homes. Despite the theoretically having less disposable income, young families want the private spaces, the healthier home, and won’t they functional kitchen and the sanctioning bathrooms that most are also more likely to replace a perfectly functional appliance or fixture.

If it is job style, start focusing on more, helping them with their busy lives. Yeah, this might be the trend here, right? For the 5% that can actually enforce their own damn house. But 95% of all, or the vast majority can’t afford it and will live in rentals and apartments. So what they can afford is what, nice to have my opinion, but not starting to old sound like an old grumpy man.

Moving on to some commercial stuff here, Disney to close 60 stores in North America. So if you guys like to dive in that massive pile of Disney plush toys, I guess you probably can’t do that anymore because they don’t allow you to touch the merchandise, but they might even be closing your nearby Disney store.

So you’re going to have to go to Disneyland to get your stuff or go to evening. Refinance loans. Propelio another increase in whole mortgage lending activity during the fourth quarter of 2020. This is Adam data solutions. So what they’re saying here is purchases refinance, and he logs are on the uptick as of the last three quarters.

Now this makes sense, right? People are getting back into the market or more lending action. Another top 10 market from ALN data that call no, this is more apartments. 10 markets, Phoenix, Arizona, Tampa, Florida, Dallas Fort worth Houston. Those are your top five, top four by long shot. Now you start to get into Atlanta Seattle, North Carolina fall.

Let the bill. Raleigh North Carolina, Denver, Colorado, Orlando, Florida rounds up top 10. It Phoenix, Tampa, Dallas, Houston plant a top five

joint center for housing studies of Harvard university came up with this cool article and I sticking this one figure that I saw useful work. The rise in young adults, living with parents early in the pandemic was mostly rare first after the summer. So what they’re saying is the young adults, they obviously moved in with mom and dad starting last year, but then now they’re regressing back and take back out and it has it broken down between 18 to 24 years old.

Which, yeah, a lot more than my running back to come up, dad, as opposed to the 25 to 29 year old is a great resource. This joint center for housing studies at Harvard university. I don’t think this is very biased industry data, like some of the multifamily housing needs, but these are very rich articles.

If you guys are bored and you want a good resource. Another resource of all data that called does a lot of apartments, top 10 worst markets. And the naughty 10 is New York city, Los Angeles, Chicago grand Rapids, Michigan Birmingham, Alabama Shreveport, Louisiana, Illinois, Springfield, Northwest Arkansas Buffalo, New York, Richmond, Virginia.

But I think out of this list, New York city is by far the biggest loser New York city, the rest of the list, they’re losing some population, but not too much

huge news coming out of Phoenix, Arizona, as we mentioned them earlier, Phoenix mixed use project takes a giant leap report by commercial property executive as this. Development would comprise a 2.1 million square feet on light industrial as well. The office retail and entertainment space. And this is a Keystone equity’s recent acquisition of 129 39 acres in Goodyear, Arizona situated at the interstate 10 and three Oh three.

More things from Phoenix pin investment Suncrest, real estate to develop 109 unit build to rent community in Phoenix. Now, this is something I’ve been hearing a lot about a podcast land. Some of you guys have sent us emails on this, and I just think it’s people are just like building turnkey rentals are still too unsophisticated investors.

But it makes sense, right? People want newer stuff these days. They don’t need to be in the best areas. They just want it to be new. And I see the appeal to this. This is why people would rather be in smaller living conditions, like a condo, one bedroom, high rise apartment, whether it’s new, they have all the cool amenities and it’s cheaper as opposed to being in a larger house or traditional housing environment. But. So people have, there’s like this thesis that people want news. So when you get the people to what they want, that can’t afford it, you have to buy to rent. So the investor buys it and then rents it out.

I’m not a big fan of this, but Hey, prove me wrong, right guys. But they’re building that in Phoenix because the population growth another chart here. Market five-year rent growth projections over the national average. So this is a five-year horizon in Phoenix, Arizona. Number one on the list at 37% rent growth in this five-year period.

Second place in them. Empire, California, San Bernardino area, 32% Dallas Fort worth 32% in this five-year period, Atlanta, Georgia 31%. And then you go down to Baltimore, Seattle, New York city, Northern New Jersey, central Valley, California, orange County, Oakland, San Francisco. Why can’t I say it? And insula now these are all the big red growth jumps over a long period, right?

Not just six months or a year, but a five-year period. These are your longterm trends and out of this list, a lot of your primary markets, right? Which you’ve come to expect, but out of these, the top 20 of 24 markets that actually will catch it all. Let me go through here. The only ones who will do it will be Phoenix.

I don’t think inland empire will cashflow too much close to Los Angeles and it’s in the state of California, but Watson one real estate there. Where the tenant, it’s all the power. Dallas Fort worth Atlanta. Yeah, I like those markets, but all these other ones, they’re all blue States.

You’re not going to have the rent evaluation. You’re not going to be in the cash flow with a class B or C asset. Indianapolis number 15 on the list is on here that cash flows, salt Lake. Not really. You can’t really cashflow there anymore. Tampa Bay Detroit can sorta, but that’s getting lower on the list.

More news from Tempe, which essentially Phoenix the house enters Arizona market with $177 million multi-family development in Tempe, which will feature a 310 studio, one, two and three bedroom. So yeah more development. And also here’s another one. Intel expanse. What’s making all this Phoenix news, Intel expanse, Arizona footprint with $20 billion investment to new factories will be developed at the company’s campus Chandler Arizona, which is pretty much Phoenix.

Now, John Burns with their March madness theme came up with these fun themes. Bracketology for their next at merchant markets. So in the Southeast conference, rebuild South Carolina, Knoxville, Tennessee South is boys. To welcome 82% of the national household growth over the next decade. Just why we like to invest in Alabama and Texas looking at, I don’t know as much, not still, but yeah, Knoxville, not Memphis, but Knoxville.

And some of those smaller markets that tendency even look good. I don’t really look at South Carolina to me. It’s just too far, but I hear it’s a great market. Western conference, the Tucson, Arizona, Fort Collins, Colorado are benefiting for the rapid growth and rising prices of Phoenix of Denver. I don’t know if you can cash flow a Denver or Fort Collins.

That’s the problem with that? You’re not saying that they’re bad places, but you just can’t cashflow there. Bracket busters, Myrtle beach, South Carolina and Spokane Washington are booming for their relative affordability house prices and house prices that are rapidly rising. And then the parental powerhouses, I guess these are your North Carolina’s and your Dukes.

Austin, Texas and Phoenix, Arizona, both markets are mentioned as university cities as a clear destination for full buyers, particularly out of California. Do you guys go on YouTube and inundate with these videos that people St while they’re getting the heck out of California, it’s hot stuff. These days, hot topics, very tweetable topics or YouTube algorithm, friendly topics, even California to go to Texas, Arizona Vegas.

And here’s a screenshot of the Yardi matrix, another multifamily apartment rent tracker that I follow year over year, rent growth of all classic classes.

Take a little breather here. Do you guys have not yet? Join our community, get educated, go through our pipeline. Free e-course that is up this month. Go to simple, passive for that. And if you’ve been following with us and getting a sense of our community and our unique tribe of high net worth working professionals, to try to get our network from one, the $10 million.

Check out our family office, a Honda mastermind, which is to grow your network and also get in a group of other like-minded. I paid professionals to learn more, go to simple, passive casel.com/journey. And for those of you guys just getting started, maybe your net worth is under a quarter million dollars trying to pick up your first rental property or about turnkey rental.

Check out the simple classic Castro investor incubator, check out the e-course if you just want to dip your toe in that, but you can learn more about that. It’s simple, passive castle.com/incubator for information about the e-course and incubator there. But we’re going to transition more on to what I’ve been doing a little lately.

We see, we have some live attendees there. If you guys want to drop some questions or comments into the question, answer box, we’ll get to it at the end. But I was trying to find ways keep growing, keep improving So I’ve been getting some business coaching lately trying to improve my skills in terms of leadership, which means hiring people.

I’m learning that I am going to be a father soon. So I cannot do this simple passive cashflow dance for 12 hours every single day. And I need to bring the team around me. So I am trying to grow myself that way, which is very difficult. How did we treat a little contribution this last month?

Well, a bunch of our deals just close one full cycle Atlanta, Georgia, that one you guys remember if you guys were with us back in 2018? We just more than doubled best buy in two and a half years. Huntsville investors doubled investor’s money in three years.

Another one we 26% return people’s two years and get under the Chattanooga. And we also got this other deal in Texas. I can’t say where it is yet, because it’s not final yet, but we are looking like it’s going to be 130 something percent return in five years We’re in the talks with buyers for that right now, to submit that total return.

But on that deal, it was Rocky up, started out the Gates occupancy actually went down to the 60%, which is very rare. I’ll be that happens. Things pretty goes pretty smoothly, 90% of the time, but this is like the 10% of the exceptions. We crawled all the way back and, continue to doing the business plan, rehabbing units and.

Yeah. It’s great when we can make great investors at ease and get right the ship. The truth is these assets are pretty resilient and yeah. Maybe we don’t pay out distributions for a little bit, the business plan is going along the business plans through increased rents and event, she cashed in with a big return, like how we are looking like it’s going to be here shortly.

Woo, ooh, on that. But also booboo on our recent closing last week, a 303 unit class B in Houston, Texas Cambridge village apartments. For those of you who have joined us if you guys like red wine, white wine champagne, or you’re just crazy enough, like this guy doesn’t even need a drink.

Congratulations. And thanks for jumping on this one with us a little bit on certainty here from myself, and this is the crazy thing, right? Like where does my headaches come fall? Not from these big, robust deals, but on this pain, the butt single family home that I still own two of these things.

And we’ve been trying to get this one sold for like a whole year and. I’m not complaining or anything like that, as a remote landlord, I have very little recourse control of how things go. You’re just getting fixed up. I dunno, what this thing is, XL like given up hope. I just written it off.

Luckily I think I’ll make a profit on this summer, but man, what a headache, it’s definitely not worth the trouble. I don’t know why anybody does those burst a pain. It’s cool. You can make 20, 30% for time and money like that. But for the risk of working with a bunch of lower level contractors, wiring money remotely, to me, it’s not the way for more accredited investors or guys over half a million dollars worth.

But Hey, that’s just me call me ladies, if you want. But how do I get certainty? That’s one of the big, important things for folks and, going back to that El Paso deal, occupancy job pretty much the 50%. And we crawled back in two years to get that thing back to 90% stabilizing and very confident that we’re going to get your 20% people’s money in three years on that it’s phenomenal little Rocky start, but.

That’s how things go. And the full family office on a mastermind, the group with the bank and the collective genius more information go to simple, passive cashflow.com/journey because it’s the largest it’s ever been. We got a lot of people in the beginning. Try us out. They paid the in-store price, something at renew, some weren’t the right fit.

But overall the last couple of years, people have been joining and we’re at the highest level of membership as possible. And now I’ve created more of an elder program or people stick around, they’d be up for another year and they try and help out the community more for now new members coming in, we give them a couple of mentors, people who have been in the group for more than a year to help jumpstart their networking and also have another person.

That’s another viewpoint other than myself and the other staff to help them out. So we’re trying to make this program better every single day. You guys are always interested in the crop I’m buying. So what did I buy this month? Do dads. So I bought these these felt planters. They’re still on my couch.

I haven’t put dirt in them, but. I bought them because I was going to grow like sweet potatoes and potatoes. And I guess there’s like a little Velcro flap that you can see when it’s ready. They’re like 20 bucks. I think it gets me outside. And then I actually am really into like worms and stuff like that.

So I bought this compost container, or you put like all the. Composting stuff in there. And then every few days I run it out to the worms, throw it in the compost pile that I’m getting back into the Sufi thing, sibling, fish, and steaks. But yeah, again, if you guys want to grab the QRP book, go to simple passive castle.com/qrp.

Nothing here should be taken as legal tax, financial investment advice. Think for yourself folks, we’re here just to educate you guys and connect you with the right people. But we will see you guys next month. All right. Aloha. Everybody it’s may day coming up, but.

March 2021 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/Tg_DiV-67QE

All right. Welcome everybody. This is going to be the March, 2021, a monthly market update. But before we get going through the content here, I have a lot of questions on some of the current events that are taking place, especially in Texas, out there where the temperatures got into the single digits there for a little bit.

Yeah, we’ve got a lot of assets own, maybe half a dozen apartments out there. And we just finally got chucked through most of the aftermath. And yet there are a lot of burst pipes and a lot of leaks but Everyone was freaking out. Yeah, we had some issues called the plumber and they got fixed and damages on, most of our apartments are a hundred to 250 units, but the damages came back or maybe five grand to 20 grand per property, which seems like a heck of a lot of money, hurt the monthly profits, but really not touching cash reserves and yeah, it’s a bummer.

It happened, but it just got to think here, for, five to $20,000 on a lot of these properties where the monthly revenue is a hundred to $200,000. If you just take a thousand bucks times a hundred, 200 units, 250 units, that’s how we get a hundred, 200 grand brought in. Five to 20 grand is not that much money.

It’s probably about 10 to maybe 20% of that. And, normally the net operating income, the profit that we bring in is usually in the 50 to a hundred thousand dollar range. We still made money. But I think those of you guys who are into the turnkey rentals, you guys probably understand, with your turnkey rental, you maybe you’re bringing in a hundred dollars a month.

That’s a hundred dollars to $200 repair bill on the same bank. That two that we have. And I think that’s why we like the bigger assets, because on a lot of these, we did have one where the chiller Got a little damage, no big deal. They are. But for the most part, it’s just a bunch of plumbing issues, which a lot of it got taken care of with in-house staff.

And that’s the nice thing about what these bigger properties, where we have a lot of the staff on call. I’ve been pay on salary as opposed to paying those huge third party, the pair bills. And that’s what I never really liked about being an out-of-state remote landlord. I’ve paid like 900 bucks to the carer stinking toilet.

I don’t know. At a hundred to $200 hourly billable rate. That’s a lot of hours to fix a toilet. I don’t think, but that’s how it is as an out of state landlord. But yeah, you guys who are lower net worth, I’d say still got to start there. That’s where I started. But make sure you guys run your numbers, right?

If you guys haven’t yet grabbed a hold of my buy and hold analyzer, it’s in an Excel or Google sheet format, full explanation of all the expenses on. To make your own performance. So in case the Texas freeze happens again, you’ll be able to observe it on your monthly cashflow and it, and like for us, it didn’t really dip into cash reserves.

And this is what allows you to perform your sensitivity analysis on your own. So to grab that and go to simple passive cashflow.com/analyzer, or we also put it on the simple passive cashflow.com/turn key page for folks to grab for free. But we’ll get right into this month’s report. If you haven’t yet, please join our Facebook group and check us out.

This is also recorded in podcast form on the podcast. And I also put the slides up on YouTube. So if you guys are listening on podcasts and you want to, you’re feeling some FOMO for missing out on some of the slides, you can check it out there. For those who are joining live feel free to put in a question into the box.

If there’s a question that comes out, but we’ll start off with a few teaching points here. Just grab this out of a new Mark or recently in this models, the interest rates, which all time lows once again, maybe it’s been creeping up this first quarter, but still pretty much as low as it’s ever been.

And the cap rates on multi-family and that’s, this is just a general cap rate for, all markets, all asset classes. So the important thing, what I want to show here is everybody asks when does it attempt to buy? It’s always a good time to buy when you’re trashed.

But as investors, what we do is we’re basically making money on the spread between the cap rate and the interest rate. So right now cap rates are at 5.8% on average, and that the ten-year treasury as is that a 0.93 investors make money on that spread. And then of course we apply leverage good, healthy leverage on top of that to magnify those returns.

You look, what’s been happening these last few months that spread between the cap rate and the interest rates is a lot bigger than normal. Some of the squeeze points of times where it wasn’t a great place to be investing was mid 2018. As you can see by the charter, there was a bit of a squeeze there.

Or maybe in the, between 2006 and 2007, there was this, there was also squeezed there, but the times were the spread of widens. Now that’s the time to invest like mid 2012 here and right now, but that’s the, your academic look of, how investing works essentially. And this is what a bank does, they go in and invest in arbitrage, the money somewhere else. And they take on debt, but good debt to be able to afford onto the asset that cash flows. A lot of good news that have been happening and saw the last market update gen records. John Burns, a lot of these guys are putting, given the green light, but I want it to report on, as I mentioned in the previous slide long-term interest rates had been creeping up just a tad this first quarter of the year.

A 10 and 30 year treasury yields have been running up the start of 2021. That’s where we were conservative using like a 3.5% as a placeholder for our commercial deals these days. I don’t really know what people are getting for residential, maybe around 3%, but it’s been creeping up lately. Now just a little bit of the guys have been following the news on January 4th.

The yield on ten-year treasury note was a 0.93 and the 30 year treasury yield was one. Point six, six a month later, the 10 year treasury came up to 1.19 and the 30 year treasury came up to 1.96. Now that’s a big move for just a five week, one month period. Bonds have been getting killed in that interim what’s driving these changes.

The Democrats novel, the house of representatives, the state and the white house. And if you look back and how the stuff was moving, when the Georgia Senate runoff was happening and tip the scale to the Senate going to the Democrats, the markets reacted by expecting massive dismissiveness because typically the Democrats do spend more money.

And the us treasury expected to bring massive amount of bonds to the market for a fairly short period of time. Now, what does this mean? I look at it, this is all good for investors like us because ultimately more government spending means that it trickles to us landlords and investors. This is what is essentially driving up yields or the cap rates on the short term.

Because as I said in the previous side upgrades typically go up when interest rates go up, they float together to investors make money on the difference between the cap rate and interest rate. Plus the leverage has magnifies difference. So in other words, sophisticated investors know that cap rates typically go up and down with interest rates.

They don’t really freak out when type these types of movements happen. Now the economy is continuing to reopen more and more, and I think Biden just released another stimulus plan to hopefully get a lot more people vaccinated by the end of April. So all good news pointing to. A big recovery.

And I’ve been seeing a lot of Fannie Mae Freddie Mac before it, so we’ll get into this later on in the report. But a lot of these guys are saying that, Q3, Q4 GDP growth should be over four to 5%. Here’s one of those reports right here from Fannie Mae. You look at 2021, they’re predicting a 4.8% GDP growth in Q2.

Two three 7.5 and Q4 6.1. So that’s big stuff. Probably what that’s accounting for is personal consumption. Expenditure is big in Q3 of 20, 20. A lot of people think inflation is coming. I don’t necessarily read that even though logically. That makes sense. I think they can just keep printing money.

But even if inflation does then, right? Like by buying fixed commodities, hard assets, like real estate you’re hedging. That way.

Facebook plans expansion to the console data center, project price, the top $1 billion of development. Ongoing construction. This is their construction in February, 2021. And they announced this back country in 2018. So you can see how long these projects take to get in there. But Facebook is definitely committed.

It seems to be by this picture that they’re going to put that big data center in Huntsville, Alabama. Here’s another chart that I’ve found from via the global research and it shows the different models of. COVID cases coming down and basically the nuisance they’re getting better and better.

The fan line report has been released. And this is very similar to the UAR report. You have report models. There’s a great indicator for the blue collar workers, the budget folks who have to move themselves. Where the van lines is more they’re white collar workers, where if you’re a corporate worker, you have to get moved, relocated that the van line is typically who’s going to move you.

So the top 10 on the moving out list in this order was New Jersey, New York and Noyes, Connecticut, California, Kansas, North Dakota, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Maryland. Obviously in New Jersey, New York, California, people are everybody, everything. Everybody knows that at this point, that everyone’s getting the heck out of town, Illinois, if you haven’t heard that everybody’s getting the heck out of the noise that States go down really fast.

What are the States moving in? It is Idaho, South Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida, Arkansas. And again, this is the more white collar worker folks, Freddie Mac flags, robust growth in the South and West. So they cited three Texas cities grew by a total of 2.8 million people from 2010 to 2019.

And I think we all know what they are. The Dallas, Houston and Austin grew by 2.8 billion people. Why lower cost of living attractive, whether influx of domestic and international migrants, I would have Hughes. One of the biggest masterplan community developers is adding 2 million square feet of new development across the four master plan communities in Las Vegas, Cypress Texas, Columbia, Maryland, and Honolulu, Hawaii.

It’s always interesting to see what the big institutional money and these guys put a lot of money into research. And because they’re making big bets on whether they’re building.

Of course, we as more mom and pop investors, be a little bit more nimble, but it’s good to whale watch what these guys are up to. Another guy you want to definitely will watch on a more macro sense is Sam Zell. If you don’t know who that is, you better know who it is because right below Warren buffet, this guy is the guy who kind of kicks certain sectors not necessarily good management companies or, like how Warren buffet does, but Sam Zell definitely picked is a better picker of sectors in my opinion.

So in his commentaries, he’s expects a rebound for office hospitality, and big city multifamily. Chicago, he, he’s a native of Chicago, I guess he’s not moving on. He doesn’t, he has a lot of money. He doesn’t care, but he, doesn’t not so much like predominant shifts stemming from COVID 19 pandemic office use hospitality and central city apartments will all rebound while the industry icon sees potential for over supply in couple of search and currently hot sectors.

Says, I think we’re going to go back to conventions back to people creating relationships. I don’t see that changing. Although we’ll restart slowly. There’s also a huge, build-up a tourism demand. People have been locked up for almost a year, which I would agree personally. And I think you don’t see it very much, but a lot of folks in this pandemic were hurt by the things being shut down.

But a lot of white collar folks. Or just totally unimpacted and, there’s, it got a few stimulus checks too. On top of that.

So Arbor put up a few of these great charts that I put up on the screen. Just model, how did the COVID 19 recession relate to the great recession? So if you look here the green line. Basically, if I’m going to describe this for the folks listening on the podcast, aren’t able to take a look at these charts, which by the way, you guys can all look@thesereplaysonatsimplepassivecashflow.com slash investor letter is where all of these past monthly updates are held.

Casey ever want to go back and spot check than something you saw. But, the way that it’s illustrate. And I think this makes a lot of logical sense is the beginning of the pandemic was a big spike, big impact where the other recessions, it took a lot, a long time, 12 months to develop where this COVID-19 recession.

In one month, unemployment just shut up. But then very quickly, I would say it’s reading by this chart six months later. Things came down and has been steady on the decline. On this chart right here, we’re already under 5% unemployment where all the.com the great recession, the 1990 recession, it took them five years to get to this five years plus to get to this point where we’re at now in terms of unemployment.

So some would say the recession is over I personally don’t even call this a recession. It was just a health crisis.

Consulting releases, apartment rent forecast four big trends that they’re seeing first, the Bloomberg’s suburban apartments where the biggest beneficiaries of 2020 condemning with renters. Like for more space, examples would be Austin, Tampa, Phoenix. Next is brain towns. These are the demanded college towns to improve in

fall as students return to campus more Trisha and markets like Ann Arbor, border, Colorado Madison other beneficiaries are downtowns, which should come back to the play. He’s saying by 2022 we’ll work from home may have suffered demand in urban markets for now the watch for a back bounce back in COVID.

So they’re citing Boston, DC, New York, Miami. And the Dependables, the dependable markets are historically stable and steady. They be forecast some bumps in the near term, but big opportunities. Long-term such as places like Minneapolis, Kansas city and Reno.

And, from a real high level where we look at a lot is just strictly population change from a high level. And here’s a chart from new Mark. Illustrating where the population growth is. You’ve look at the 10 areas. Those are the areas where people are moving out. The blue, the darker blue areas are people moving in.

Now this I stole from a 2021 rocker for family office report. Okay. A lot of things are going on in this chart, but I just put this in here to show folks that, how the wealthy invest, right? They’re not just in retail mutual funds and that type of stuff. But a lot of these guys are in that private equity space, which we really focus on in our pool.

That’s what we thought to call ourselves private equity.

They are the Rockefeller guys. They’re probably going to decrease their longterm, us treasuries, and also decrease their eye corporate. They’re also going to go to more, a bunch of markets and also decrease their us large cap equities. Okay,

but a big chunk of it is private equity. I think that’s my other takeaway from that. And what do they mean by private, real estate? Mobile home parks, apartments, office space things like that.

And. Just to take a little break there in case you guys haven’t noticed we do have a mastermind group. If you are accredited investor, please check this out. Simple, passive cashflow.com/journey. And for those of you guys, I would say under a quarter million, half a million dollars net worth and looking to buy your first remote investor incubator, you guys know that you guys have to get off the active train.

If you’re flipping houses, wholesaling, and you got to get started, but how. If you may not have enough money to do syndications quite yet, you may not be a sophisticated investor. So check out simple, passive castle.com/turnkey. Great way to get started. That’s the free guide, but we are starting to incubate a group, which is a five month boot camp where we walk you through buying your first rental property.

Now we’re going to transfer We’re going to go and to my personal report I always like to split this off into different categories based on the 20 ramen six human needs. More information about that. Go to simple, passive cashflow.com/happy, because if not, what’s it all for. If you’ve got all the money Overwatch, you’re not happy.

So the first one here is growth. No, I here’s, my I’m working on my last Burr. I don’t like burrs at all. I think it’s too much risk. I think it is a real pain to do. I don’t think it’s a great return on time, but I think if you’re lower net worth, I think that’s where it come in. It comes into play. Or in my case, I want to just on a reload, these last two rental properties that I have.

So I am actually. I think I put in maybe like 20 or 30 grand into this property and yeah, we hope to sell it quick, unload it to some retail and buyers and wipe my hands with this direct ownership stuff on loading the rentals, boom contribution for all the founding office Ohana massive. And it has been having a lot more on new recruits into our group.

I really enjoy helping out the people there. I don’t have the time to individually help out folks just in the general we pipeline club anymore. Now that we’re over 400 on getting old, maybe 500 investors. Now who’ve invested at least 50 grand into a past deal. If you guys want family office consulting you probably can’t afford that.

And unless you’re your a hundred million dollar net worth and above. So that’s where our family office Ohana mastermind, it’s a group coaching experience significance how to get significance. I couldn’t think of anything. So I was just told myself the old stoic line, no one cares work harder.

But number four here, uncertainty the Texas freeze was a bit of. Uncertainty and to my life this week, who woulda thought, right? Thank goodness. Some of these places had natural gas, but yeah, I don’t know. I, maybe I wasn’t reading the headlines too much, but some people seem to be really freaked out.

And I thought there was some kinds of like with the whole energy crisis in Texas. A lot of our properties is business as usual. A couple of days later, But yeah, there’s always gonna be something that makes people scared and stick to the status quo, if you stay with the status quo, we all know what we’re going to get.

How did I establish some certainty in my life? That was the report from Hawaii at the same time, like forecasts of light wins some more showers as the cold front new year’s we all got and actually got into the high seventies at the grab a jacket. But, and all Sarah NES, Charlie Munger, he was Warren Buffett’s buddy at Berkshire Hathaway.

He always has this famous rule and he wasn’t recently on the news the other day. People, they asked them well what’s the rule for a happy life. And he says low expectations. And as I look at my investor group, a lot of you guys are very value driven folks. First, a lot of first-generation or actually most first-generation people that value things and experiences.

And what the value of the dollar is and you guys keep it simple sometimes too simple. I think a lot of you guys can be a little bit too frugal at some times. Some loving connection will were expecting. I am no longer going to be working 12 hours every single day.

Hopefully, if everything pans out, I’ll be a dad in January. But thank you for all the words of encouragement on my Facebook and LinkedIn, I’m actually going to compile can I have my assistant get all the best practices that you guys put on there? A lot of you guys put good tips on my feed.

So I’m going to compile that, put all on the spreadsheet, categorize it. And those of you guys who. Commented. I’m going to give you guys access to that spreadsheet so that you guys can share with any friends or family that you guys have. I think that’s something I’ve learned from this investing thing, everything is out there and we just have to tap it all.

And there has to be at least somebody. And I guess that’s the role I like to play that facilitates the conversations or captures everything in a digestible form. If not, there’s just a lot of noise out there. There’s just a lot of like big pockets and stuff like that of just endless data and knowledge out there.

Some fun things. I bought some, these are do dads. I bought this fried garlic chips from Amazon. It’s like pretty cheap. It’s 15 bucks for a pack. And what’s cool about this is I set this up on subscription. So every like four to six months, it sends me a new one, but I was trying to find a way I liked those garlic chips to fry, but.

Unless you fry it perfectly. It doesn’t get burned or it gets moldy after a while. So if you guys like, thinking the same way and you guys like the cook, try that out. And I thought I’d splurged from the old Heinz ketchup and get me some Portland catch up here. Reminds me of my days in the Northwest, where we would spend way too much money for GMO free and gluten free vegan free and organic.

By the way, but yeah, nothing in this presentation was considered legal or think for yourself, guys, just think for yourselves. Thank you everybody. And if you guys haven’t. Make sure you sign up for the Udo pipeline club to get sent the same deals I come across that we have, the pipeline club is a free investor club where I filter investments and underwrite, the deals and partners.

And a lot of times operate it myself. Unlike an other investor looks in groups, my investors know I kind of personal skin in the game. If you would like to join go to simple passive cashflow.com/club. And we’ll see you guys next time.

February 2021 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/T-la1Hyc5Gk

This is the February, 2021 monthly market update where I go over the news and what’s been impacting the economy and our real estate investing Easter egg just to start out. So I put together all the recordings for the turnkey rentals. In a little turnkey download tab for we guys that’s all past the cashflow.com/turn key slash download.

The reason why I did this because a lot of the stuff I’ve forgotten yeah, we have the incubator group and we have the remote investor eCourse for new investors, but now I’m moving off to syndication deals and more accredited investing type stuff. So I thought I would try and archive this all in one place before I forget it all.

So if you guys are starting out low on the net worth side, check this out, but let’s get into it. If you guys don’t know who I am. My name is lane I still have my PT license. I don’t find it. Go back to the day job. So habit, because it took so long to get , if you guys want to check out my podcast, find it on iTunes, Google play, and also the YouTube channel.

All right. First thing here, we’ll start with a few teaching points for folks. First thing first, Biden’s in charge now and some of these tax changes might be coming down the pipeline. Currently corporate rates are at 21%. Biden’s looking to push set up with about 28%. They always talk about removing the 10 31 exchanges.

Frankly, I don’t really care, 10 31 exchanges. Doesn’t really impact us sophisticated investors who invest as private places in syndications and diversify. It only hurts the sucker buyers who are distressed buyers. I love 10 31 buyers because they’re distressed and they pay a hundred, five, 110% of asking price because they’re distressed.

They have to move. So you don’t want to be that person don’t say no to 10 31. And so two might be taken away. Which is fine. So other things that’s going on is, the other than the corporate tax rate possibly going up is he’s he looks looking like he’s going to whack those people over $400,000 AGI.

But for a lot of us, we’re able to use these passive losses and manipulate her AGI to fly under the radar with that type of stuff. You don’t know how to do that. Check on my tax guide. It’s simple. Pastor cashflow.com/tax. Okay. But yeah, a lot of cool charts here. I got this Ernst and young report that they put out.

You guys want to see some of the visuals here, check this out on the YouTube channel or I have all the investor letter, all the monthly reports on my website@simplepassivecashflow.com slash investor letter. And you guys, can I catch up on plus individual form? So other things he’s going to be looking to do is it’s going to create like a maiden America credit, 10% towards revitalizing and between manufacturing facilities and bringing production back to the U S I’ve definitely looking at some industrial vestments.

Dean stays, did diversify myself. I still like what they found. They still like mobile parks. And office space, but yeah, I’m always looking to diversify my personal portfolio. Nope,

of course. Biden is a big greeny guys. So you’re going to possibly see a lot of the solar credits maybe restore the full electronic vehicle tax credits for, in terms of housing, looking like that they might bring back the $50,000. First time home buyer credits. Everybody freaks out every time, something like that comes out saying that it’s actually going to impact a lot of things to me.

Like I stopped caring about all of that stuff. Cause it’s a drop in the bucket really. Yeah, some people might be buying a house and it might make things go up for a month or two, but even big $15,000 tax credits for first time home buyers. I just seen it, not really move the needle, the longterm.

But if you are like me and you rent, Hey, it might be a cool way to pick up $50,000. But if you’re buying a one to $3 million house, what’s 15 grand. That’s not much as far as childcare 8,000 tax credit for childcare, 5,000 tax credit for informal care givers aimed at elder care. Most of the stuff is still in the works and I’m sure it will change, but when we figure out what’s going on, I won’t let you guys know.

Of course we strategize best practices behind closed doors in the family office for Honda mastermind. If you don’t know what you’re missing, like you guys don’t want you to miss them, but it’s good stuff in there. All accredited investors and it is what exactly what it is. Mastermind of multiple family offices coming together that are under our umbrella.

So learn more, go@simplepasscashflow.com slash journey, but enough for the commercial. So more teaching points here. I was working through the development deal that we have going on in Huntsville, and we just signed our guaranteed maximum price contract on that. And for those of you guys still doing the birth strategy and flipping houses.

The way we did it. This is a $20 million project we’re working on. We’re trying to build 200 multi-family class a units. So workforce housing, class A’s kind of synonymous with new builds. We are put in place a guaranteed maximum price contract to shelter. The movement on the price where.

We’re also incentivizing the contractor to find us cost savings. So I pulled this out of the wash dot standards when I used to be an engineer up in the Washington state. So back then, or if you followed the wash dot standards, there’s a former like year. Saying that if the contractor finds a cheaper way to do it you could split the cost savings with them.

So it’s a way of incentivizing them to be a good steward of your money and find cheaper ways to do it in the private sector. We use a 25% profits split, but yeah, just a few ideas for you guys doing the birds. Take some tips from us. We want to be aligned with our contractors as much as possible, even though it’s very hard, if I’m going to do a construction project, it’s going to be on the bigger scale with these bigger, more professional construction firms.

If you guys hadn’t heard, the whole game stop thing, I’m not gonna beat this to death and show you’ve read about it in every single publication out there, but. If you haven’t, basically a bunch of folks on Reddit banded together and manipulate the price of gain stuff. And look, this is what I personally don’t have any paper assets.

This is what happens when a bunch of kids have access to an asset. And this is why I’m out of something that everybody has access to. There’s a reason why we’re like real estate. Not everybody can save up 20 grand to go buy a hundred thousand dollar house. Certainly not many people can go and buy a 10, $20 million apart.

There is limited access. There is a barrier to entry. That is why I like it. And I try not to do anything where I don’t have that unfair advantage. But if you guys are on the rollercoaster of stocks, mutual funds, that type of stuff. It took me a long time to get off of that bandwagon, but I’m so glad I did getting into real assets, especially that cash flow,

On this chart is 30 or 40 things that can go wrong. Ranging from weapons of mass destruction, price, instability, digital inequality. Some of these, I don’t even know what they are likely of a crisis, infectious diseases, climate action, failure, human, environmental damage, extreme weather in it.

Ranks everything on a chart, which if you guys go to the YouTube channel, you guys can take a look at what I’m looking at, but. Frank it on the chart between how much impactful it is to the global outlook and how likely it is. I’m sure we have about half of these on the private placement memorandum of in capital letters, but in this life, there’s risks, right?

You’re always going to have risks. But I think if you figure out ways to mitigate that risk is the important thing. And I think diversification is that will personally the way I do it. And going into things that perform well in recessions. Not hospitality, not restaurants, not those things like travel and leisure.

We touched upon this earlier, potentially impact the Biden’s 15,000 home buyer tax credit out of the list. This is the, probably the one that’s likely to go through is what I’m reading. It’d be cool. The residential real estate market is very hot right now because of the whole supply.

Not necessarily, I think there’s super high demand, but it’s more because of low supply, but maybe when this gets put into the money supplier or out there, people start to get, see this. Maybe it might take the real estate market even further.

John Burns we just had him on the podcast a month and a half ago, but he points out some cool things, developments that are happening migration from urban to suburban locations, people are seeking less density, larger floor plans or outdoor space. The low mortgage rates, relative affordability and shifting from working and schooling from home supports the suburban migration.

So examples of that are Bay area. Worker’s going to Stockton or Sacramento Seattle folks moving out to Tacoma or, like to the East sides. If you’re familiar with that site, Bellevue. Migration from gateway cities to secondary markets continues to be on the rise, such as Boise Spokane, Charleston, I don’t necessarily like those specific markets, but this is just what John Burns is saying as a general training.

And they advise to a lot of institutional investors. Another development is luxury and second home sales sword. In locations drivable from nature, coastal markets. So those people run away from those high price areas, such as Seattle and San Francisco, Los Angeles. You’re seeing new home sales peaking in places where people are trying to pick up that second home or that nice luxury home

just outside where the populated areas. So places like Naples Lake Nolan, I in Orlando salt Lake city and Las Vegas, or people in salt Lake city and Las Vegas are benefiting in daybreak. In Summerland. For example, you have home sales in the top 50 master plan communities. Now these are like the big suburban development.

So track homes. Largest year of your growth. You’ve seen in nearly a decade, we expect lower mortgage rates and buyers since urgency improved living situations. And John Burns will advise for a lot of those types of clients, the big home builders out there. They’ll use their data to make the right picks of where to go.

I’d be telling you this guys, because these are the smartest minds of the business and we are lucky we get insight in what their information is, so we can make decisions as a mama thought investor or a syndication, private placement investor, and follow where the smart money is going.

Not where the dumb money, which is typically in these primary markets, just the flipping houses locally, because they need to feel it, touch it and see it. New home prices Rose 8% year of year, according to the proprietor builder survey, I will bust the man in limited supply at driving prices up and up.

And they say that they do not see this forecast really changing any taxing, but are some of the barriers to be on the lookout for. Should they come to fruition? Finished inventory per community remains low are restricting sales at 28% other communities, nationally three align with production capacity and lots of supplies.

So they’re still moving forward, but it’s going a little bit slower. Finished lot supply runs, low builders are scrambling to find new land deals and develop additional lots after selling far ahead of expectations. Some of the new lots of pipe, won’t be ready until the second half of 2021, especially in markets with difficult approving processes, building product delays, and shortages, continue to play the builders such as appliances, or, we’ve been facing a little higher than normal lumber.

So we’ve been forced to buy lumber as we need it. Resale home supply remains though in most metros. So this is encouraging even more consumers to consider the homes.

Yeah. Joint center for housing studies of Harvard university. Real next findings. That’s definitely not an article that you would scroll through on social media feed here. So I didn’t put it on the Instagram channel. There’s no one who would read this, but I started reading this article and I was actually.

It’s actually pretty good. So they’re saying, during the downturns, the expectation is that the housing prices with the client not increase and certainly not increase as such extraordinary high rates as it has. Some of the causes is the tight labor markets. The unemployment rate after peaking at 4.7% in April, we came down to a still weak level and 6.7% in November.

So some room to improve, but. You got to remember before this whole thing was not an economic issue was a health crisis before the health crisis that threw everything out of whack. We were at a super low level, 3.5% unemployment high inflation that consumer price index has been running for years, but only up 1.1% in 12 months ending November, 2020.

Therefore strong housing prices increases are not simply reflection of inflation. They’re extraordinary high on real inflation adjusted basis. So what is it like four to $6 trillion when I dunno if that’s true, but it’s somewhere on that magnitude. At least two to $3 trillion got pumped into the money supply, which is likely causing the stocks to stay at these all time highs despite.

Going to 14.7% and not 6.7% unemployment. People will say likely what’s happening next is inflation. But if some of the readings that I’ve been doing through Richard Duncan and other economists out there, what they’re saying is a lot of the inflation is not tied to the money supply these days.

Essentially America can print whatever money they wanted and nip delay the interest rates and. Can do this all by not precinct inflation. Not yet. That is there was still a loose lending mortgage bubble. The average national lending of a single family of whole mortgage debt divided by the market value of the whole is still an extremely low at 34%.

There’s no mobile skies. People are paying down debt, especially in this 12 months. If you have a job consumer debt is on the decline. So it’s not a repeat of 2008, that’s for sure. It’s a couple with ultra low interest rates. The fed pushed down interest rates to very low levels in early 20, 20, and promises to keep it they’re ultra low for years to come.

As a result, Walter’s rates have dropped to a record low level of 2.7% 400 points bait lower than it was a year ago. Housing production shortfall prior to 2008, housing production was cyclical with volumes that went significantly above long-term growth, but that’s not happening today. And bill we’re building as we need it. It’s what’s going on. Fewer houses for sale. The pandemic has been noted for the bowl level of houses for sale. Like I said, Low supply potential sellers do not want to risk inflection with buyers, wandering through their houses for showing and open houses.

That’s what these guys say. I don’t know if I wiped by it. If, to me, , if you need a house, so you don’t care, if you were walking through it, you need it soul. But in recent years, as an evidence that the baby boomer generation supporting onto their homes longer than their predecessors, it’s creating that log jam.

There is no more fundamental economic rationale for prices to go up. Shift and family spending moving towards housing, everyone’s stuck in their house. And this is all the, see why people are rehabbing their houses, de Paul renovations. People are nesting. They’re less traveling.

They’re stuck in their house, putting more money and more percentage of their net worth into their house.

Maybe because people can’t have house guests now, maybe the whole keeping up with the Joneses isn’t around anymore, but there’s certainly data is showing that they’re certainly putting more money into their houses. A pandemic induce acceleration in the purchase of second homes. So this is a lot of the wealthier guys, they’re trying to. Buy other properties in other areas like we mentioned from the John Burns study this is a list of the top 50 master plan communities of John Burns. The takeaway here guys is you look at the list, , what are the States that keep coming off Florida? There’s one big one.

The Howard Hughes in Summerland, Las Vegas, Utah, South Carolina, Florida, Texas, Florida, Texas, Florida, Texas. I mean it’s and then Phoenix. There’s a couple in California. There’s one Houston, Texas, but it’s always the big three, right? Florida, Texas, South Carolina, that these are the places where people are moving.

Do you have notes? Top 10 emerging markets. If you are a multi-family general partner apartment buyer, please cover your ears because the top three are Huntsville, Alabama, Pensacola, Colorado Springs. These are the top emerging markets and these are the smaller markets. So these are not secondary markets like a Dallas or a Phoenix, Arizona.

Those are that. I thought the mid tier in terms of population we’re talking about is emerging markets. So a lot of these are considered tertiary markets. So again, in order it’s funds for Alabama, Pensacola, Florida, Colorado Springs, Omaha, Rena, Savannah, the points you Orleans, Birmingham and Knoxville, Tennessee.

Maybe that whole Huntsville, Alabama growth is spurred on, or actually this got released pretty recently in the last month that the secretary of the air force has selected Huntsville, Alabama as the preferred location to post the us based con. No, I don’t know what the heck this is. Back in the day, these guys would launch the V2 rockets.

I don’t know what they’re doing all in space, but whatever they’re doing, it probably costs a heck of a lot of money and it was all the smart people and everybody else and a lot of tech stuff. So that’s going on in Redstone arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama. Why I liked Huntsville a lot. Patty may release a press release economic growth, expected to accelerate as vaccine deployment quickens, and one brother approaches like a dog here, but they’re saying the U S economy is expected to grow 5.3% in 2021 is substantial improvement from the currently projected 2.7% contradiction in 2020.

So they’re saying it’s a green light. Commercial property executive also echoes that to their headline on January 11th was vaccine to trigger order three CRE recovery with an economic turnaround expected to begin around mid 20, 21. I gotta say, guys is what were you doing when that Bicheno was about to burst here’s fatty maids right out of the report.

That’s their GDP estimation. So exactly what they’re saying to hit 4.8% in Q2, 2021, 7.5% in Q3 and 6.1 in Q4, and then the kind of re level off in 2022. Yeah, a lot of action. Prices are still low for large commercial assets. And , I don’t think that . The prices are better RV.

No, that long a Freddie Mac C’s improving multi-family sector for 20 and 21. So this is Fannie Mae’s brother or sister or whatever you want to call it. The other pseudo government agency predicts rents to increase in most markets and originations to rebound after a very slow year, 2020 for obvious reasons.

So the U-Haul report has come out guys so that you have all report is something I really liked to follow, which you guys haven’t used. The U-Haul in awhile. You’re probably too rich to use it, right? The you haul is what all the blue collar folks or the broke college kids use to move themselves.

So this is a great indicator where the blue collar workforce are moving and the top. 12 migration growth is in this order, Tennessee, Texas, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, like in saws in Indiana. That border Texas is always on the top here. It’s always a dog.

Like a Texas has been like the top, like the last half a decade at least, but a surprise or one is Tennessee. And I think a lot, a few slides ago we had Knoxville. If you’ve been up there, so there’s something going on, but yeah, Tennessee used to be 12th on the list. Now it is shown to be number one of Florida was number one, but it’s down to number three in Texas is number two.

Like I said, I, Joe Biden just passed his $1.9 trillion relief bill. It’s like stimulus three or stimulus four. I don’t know which one we’re on now. But this one went into effect in right as he took office January 15. What is it? How does it impact multifamily investors will of that big bill? What it did was it extended the eviction and foreclosure memorandum student end of September 30 billion in emergency rental and utility assistance, $1,400 similar checks for qualifying adults.

Increasing federal weekly unemployment balance. And it’s two, $400 through the end of September at 5 billion in emergency assistance for people experiencing homelessness. And it’s, people are like, before this happened, they’re like, Oh my God what’s going to happen.

We’re going to fall off the cliff. People’s welfare checks are going to be running out. And this happens all the time. Guys. Like the government has shown us time and time again that they are just going to print money. that’s just what they do.

Some of the biggest surprises of 2020, where the rapid innovation safe in the housing industry via virtual tours, exploded private appointments, drove conversion rates to levels of federal stimulus. They’re saying that’s a big surprise to me. It was no surprise. People were repairing and remodeling their houses.

Single family home rental operators competing for land. A lot of these guys are building with the build to rent model which included amazing 8% in the South East surprise of rocks. And.

The midway point here, guys, just take a little break here. If you guys haven’t checked out our offerings of what we have in our ecosystem and simple passive castle.com. Check out the website and our two groups of masterminds are the family office. Ohana mastermind the phone for short, simple, passive casel.com/journey.

If you want to learn more. Probably in the next couple of months, we’ll kick off another key beta group. Now this is the group for newer investors under Porter, mainline under half a million dollar net worth. You’re trying to pick up that first single family home rental. And that’s what I did back was 10 years ago, myself.

And that’s what started this whole journey. If you want to learn more about the equity simple passive cashflow.com/incubator, check out the revolt investor. E-course. If you want to buy that, and when you sign up for the incubator, we can be funding for their purchase there. That way you can get a headstart on the e-course, the academic learning.

And then when the group starts up, you can jump right in everybody, but a little bit of a personal updates on my side, as I always try and break things up in the six eats. But Tony Robbins first growth. Like we had our virtual bubble. I thought it was awesome event. I was pooped after two full days of this.

We had about a hundred attendees virtually. It was a paid event, so it was awesome. People who were there were serious about connecting with others. It was not a death by group PowerPoint. It was, I would say 60 to 70% was breakout room times. Building organic relationships with other passive investors.

So I’m saying it was great for me because I’d never done one or I never hosted one. So it took me a few hours, but I really got the hang of the virtual breakout rooms. And I think a lot of people were able to navigate on their own. So that was cool contribution, new members that came to the bubble.

I didn’t realize how many people I guess they don’t listen to every single podcast or they read every single article I have@simpleclassiccastle.com, people say, Oh yeah, I’ve seen that infinite banking thing. I didn’t realize it was such a thing everybody’s doing it here. Or, yeah, let me see it was really cool to see people seeing the light on some of these wealth building strategies of the wealthy and how supple they are, but how counterintuitive they are to what you normally see out there.

Again, it seems like we’re heading off in life is to create a contribution to the world to create more of a cheek. I was watching a YouTube video today of what’s the difference between McDonald’s in and out burger. And McDonald’s when they conquered the world to do this big business.

Whereas in and out burger, they’ve kept things small and a boutique, and that’s my vision for simple passive cashflow. Hopefully you guys will stay a part of it. I do I get a little significance in my knife? We close this sucker. The Jacksonville’s tallest building in the bank of America tower.

I was built in 1990 and we just bought it as a group. It was a $75 million deal on an appraise the next week for like low eights. So we just made a few million, at least right there. And it’s a biggest and skylight, who doesn’t like to be the biggest. How do I get a little uncertainty in my life?

This has been the theme for the last six months, right? What is the world going to open up again? Then we just showed you like three articles of how everybody’s saying what are two quarter three, 20, 21 is going to go like gangbusters, but it hasn’t happened yet. We’re still waiting.

I’m seeing a lot of listings go up by brokers. A lot of these brokers are finally getting the sellers to say, yep, now’s the time let’s put it on the market. Let’s move it. We held back in 2020, but let’s get it moving. We know that the world’s not okay,

but we don’t know if we have another six months at prices at this level. Which is why we’re pretty active and which is why it was great that we were still active last year, because all these other guys who just sat with their bare hands under the butts, they don’t have the broker relationships at this point.

How do I get a little bit certainty into my life? We sold three deals in the past month. One in Atlanta that one we a hundred percent return investors’ money in two and a half years. Sorry guys. The first checks in that are going on, I think in a week two on that. And then we’ve got to wait for some, the final bills that come in, but we should get that out shortly.

Another class C in Huntsville. So 60% return for investors in three years, that’s like a 33% time. And then another one, a hundred percent return in three years on another Huntsville property. But yeah. It’s done certain how do we build a little loving connection in my life? In the bubble, it was a cool thing.

On Saturday night . Some people were invited their spouses and we have those spouses panel. My wife was there. A few other of the investor wives were there and we demo dive into, how do we work as a couple to make financial decisions. So I want the testaments to go.

And how do you run your family household? And the finding was everybody’s lives a little bit differently, you’re not going to have the ideal, we make decisions and tent and maybe that’s how it happens, but that doesn’t happen in my family. So it was great to get people together and it was really appreciate the spouses for coming out to that.

The spouses and somehow, or listing. Such good sports, listening to this book, passive cashflow podcasts, as they are driving around, or maybe reluctant Nicholas thing. Cause their spouse is making you listen to it. But let me know. I don’t like that’s shortage.

If you guys came to the Saturday night thing, I got shirts for you guys as a prize and thank you for coming. Cause not many spouses come most don’t so if you guys truthfully came, let me know. We’ll get you a shirt. Some fun things I bought because what’s money for it and to buy some cool stuff.

So I bought a workout bench and I bought this cool punching Bay, but not like the punching bag you fill with towels or sand that like ribs for hands up. This one’s like you put water in and, punching water is still can break your hand. But so there’s a column of air. And so it’s like just soft enough, you get that snap, but it’s just soft enough.

But, that can be found on Amazon. A couple of cool things I bought this month. Yeah, the, again, the Easter egg guys, if you guys want to download all the audio trainings for surrounding single-family home, remote rentals, turnkey rentals, hopefully you can use this to get ready for the incubator.

If you want to join us on that and get Rolodex access to the people that we work with, go to simple passive cashflow.com/turnkey dash. Download. Or share this with your friend, right? I think that’s the common theme I hear all the time is that my friend does it. I tell him about this all the time and I just waste my time.

In fact, that’s how I created this podcast. So my friends would ask me how I buy all these rental properties and they never do anything. Some of these guys still never done it. But, you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t force them to drink something like that.

But for those of you who jumped on live, thank you. If you guys have any questions on typing in the question, answer box, we’ll try and get to it, but I here’s the legal disclaimer and not, we will see you guys next month.

January 2021 Monthly Market Update

https://youtu.be/adRXM-HItHE

All right. Hello everybody. This is January, 2021. We made it yay. 35 monthly market update. We’ll be talking about the 2020 statistics, how it was for 2020 real estate versus the stock market and that rehab trends. Introducing Dean here. There’s this contact information you went to buy or sell your house.

Great time to sell. Does that sound happy? New year, buddy? Glad everyone made it through. Pretty exciting new years. I don’t know how the festivities were for you lean, but we saw quite a few areas as usual. Thankfully you weren’t in a beach or Waipahu, right? I think they, Oh yeah. So was like, It’s always a great shortage.

If you see those videos of people driving through, like on the freeway passing, when is the next Paki off like, Oh, I don’t keep up. Take your kids? Go on there for the next firework workshop. Why the ones here blew it away. Eight away starting off 2021. , as we always do talking about, August statistics for December, 2020, it was the same trend as we’ve had for the last, maybe nine months since the April, March of 2020, where we’ve seen Prices go up.

We’ve seen volume go up and we’ve seen days on market go down or signs of a strong, healthy market favorable for the sellers for the most part. So on the single family on the left, median single family prices at 870,000 increase of 6.1% from prior year. Or Same time in December, 2019 closed sales at 420.

It’s like almost a 36% increase from same time last year. And these are market in staying at 10 days for single family, which is as discussed before very low. And that’s from the point that the property is listed from the point it gets into contract. So on the condo townhouse side, we have 455,000 as a meeting conduct price increase of 7%, close sales 20% increase at 514 closed sales.

And these are markets still really low 19 days. That number is a little bit deceiving though, because I think overall yes, it is still a strong seller’s market, but it seems to be a way stronger on the single-family side. And part of it due to COVID. So now we look at closed sales, we see.

, I want to talk about just taking a look at the trends, right? So we talked about the five 14 and the four 24 single family. But if you see that trend going upwards, so we’re seeing, volume tending to go up and on the next slide side, we’ll see that the new listings are going down.

What’s that a S R E S next year name. What does that stand? Oh, yeah, that sounds for senior real estate specialist. Thank you for noticing that lane. Wow. You’re pretty. I so that’s why I don’t like that. Instead on the next slide The numbers we’ve talked about before is again, when you’re looking at the median sales price for single family, we’re looking at, it’s 70 years, the end of this year versus eight 20, was it in the last year? So that’s a 6% increase.

And for, condos, we see about a 7% increase, which is, really healthy considering all this current situation. So , when we look at that lane, What made me think, we talked about all the year and things and comparison. So , we talk about. Real estate versus other investment opportunities.

So I wanted to see how the stock markets did and how stocks did. So I pulled this off of a site and if you can see for the year 2020, SMP was up 16% and that’s pretty darn awesome. And it makes me think, Then, we’ve been proponents for real estate for a while.

And, we have our opinions about investing in real estate versus the stock. So I made me. Look into things a little more and just do a quick, not a really a case study, but I just wanted to put something up. So last night I pulled this stock market information and then the next slide you can see, I did it really quick just for SNG.

Just to take a look at, try to compare that to you. So I went onto the MLS and I looked at single family homes that closed on December 30, first, 2020. Just for fun. Again, just bear with me. So that’s 38 homes. I found right. So then what I did was I scrolled through the transactions and I tried to find one that was few years ago, not a flip.

So I came on as I was going through the details. I came up with this home. So on the next slide, and you’ll see this home hopefully none of our viewers homes, but this is public information. So anyway, at number 15 of 38, I stopped. So this is a single family home, a little more than 1500 square feet, three bedroom, two and a half bath sold for $800,000.

And was it days on market. Okay. Then I looked at its history. So if you’re going to next slide, we see. So yeah, again sold for 808 days on market listed for $50,000 less. So it was closed at $50,000 over asking price. That same property sold in about four years prior on February, 2017 for $690,000 even almost two months on market.

And it was listed, at a higher per click. It closed at a less than the listed price. Yeah. Slightly. So definitely a different market if three, four years ago. And simple math, you say, okay, that’s a 16% appreciation over four years. I’m like, Holy that’s. Still sound too good. We’re trying to pitch this and again, not as a replacement, as a way to, compliment your portfolio and then, but we’re saying, okay, on the slide few slides ago, I said, okay, but this P had a 16%, return right in 2020.

So they ha but then, I was thinking, Hey, , we forgot to consider leverage. So I then looked further to get more information on this property and as okay, let’s see if it was a leverage. So come to find out, this property was bought in 2017, it was purchased a hundred percent finance VA loan so that the buyer didn’t even pay any closing costs, anything, and all got rolled up, as you can see in that amount.

And that $110,000 of appreciation. , in theory that. Owner purchased with no money down $110,000 in appreciation, but no initial investments or nothing down. And he made a hundred, $10,000 in theory. So that to me, then validates. In my mind, why I’m also investing in real estate.

As well as in the stock market, because, when you take into the con the other benefits of real estate investing it does have its positives that you can’t just look at the 16% for S and P for one year versus the 16% in this appreciation for this home for four years.

So there’s a lot of things to take into account and also keep in mind that on the other end is, whenever you take into account, leverage it. Could be the dangerous you need to be leveraging. Smart. Yeah, because I think literally the first, I think this property might’ve actually went through a foreclosure process, but anyway, that’s beside the point, but, yeah, it’s a classic case of people just comparing rates or return.

But you got to leverage, so yeah. We didn’t even lever that appreciation of three, four X. We didn’t take into account the tax potential tax benefits. All that kind of stuff. Because when they sold that 110 K was P could potentially have been tax free for them as well difference.

Like the stocks is ordinary income and for people making over three, $400,000, you don’t want any of that. You want passive income. So again, yeah, I just did that for us in G last night as I was going to this. And yeah, one thing I wanted to talk through to end my section was my other day, I put the house bathroom trend studies for 2020.

And so how was, is a resource for homeowners to, that they provide information to . Help us know what the current trends are in terms of the home improvement activities going on throughout the States. So I pulled that and in doing so put some interesting data, if you want the report, just shoot me an email and I can send it to you.

But some interesting information we found for 2020, so average remodels Then on the next slide, you’ll see that the average remodels are in the realm of 8,000. So for the major remodels and upwards of, close to 20,000 and for the minor remodels where, below 5,000, but some interesting information, again, this is just trends.

So everyone has their. See, this is a way to see how you add up. But one thing was , 23% of renovations included bathtub removals. So I thought that was kinda interesting. And another, yeah that’s what we noticed on the apartments. People are optic for the really nice showers.

Getting rid of the Tufts or the other thing I was thinking of is , aging populations needing to age in place, or so they’re getting walk-in showers with, less chance of slipping as they step over the threshold. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Both. All right. And then, yeah, so I thought that was interesting.

And then another statistic per this study was that of everyone doing their innovations. They said that 41% use the bathroom to relax and rests or, ticket what it is. I don’t know if you count, like sitting on the throne and going number two or Sandy crutch. But I was thinking more along the lines of they’re having their tubs with their.

Either a jacuzzi tub or a soaking tub, which what’s the best time for that anymore. You got to get your shower, get the heck out this morning. Yeah. So the funny thing that you mentioned that too is because I’m working with buyers and sellers. And so , when I’m talking to every different buyer has their opinion.

So the I’m working with the , families , with young children and I’m like, Oh yeah, we need a tub because the child is going to love to play in it. Or the way they beat them. So the younger families need them. And then as we mentioned earlier the order.

Generations tend to not want one as much. Yeah. And it’s not as much of a necessary cause what else are you going to do besides that? Because it’s hard to soak in for, adults. Yeah. And then the other thing that came up was. This is on another deal in Texas. Like my partners are now in our Indian, so I was asking it’s a cultural thing.

Cause a lot of tenants are Indian. Okay. And they’re like, what do you guys do with your kids? Do you guys, do you bathe their kids and the sink or I don’t want me, yeah. What do you guys use? When my kids are young, Yeah. Yeah. When you’re a super small we bought like a little plastic support thing.

I was actually the designated beta. So we bought this plastic tub that they would sit in nicely with a nice padding and it would sit within the tub and it would hold them up. But I’ve seen people beat them in the sink too. Yeah. Yeah. My partner said, yeah, we just bathed them at the sink.

We don’t care. I guess no need for a tub, that’s true. Once they can stand up and say, okay, just take the shower head that comes off and you just. Should we shut them down time efficiencies. So a few other statistics guests I thought were very interesting vinyl flooring, although not very big had an increase.

So as you can see, on the left side, ceramic and porcelain still. Took the cake with 59% for, the flooring outside the showers, but the vinyl jumped up apparently 4% to 11, which is still relatively low for the flooring. With the luxury playing vinyl coming out with, so it’s waterproof.

It has, they have so much new styles coming out and so strong and reasonable. I thought that would have been up higher over the ceramic important, especially for the floor, and then little self selecting, people that are getting bathroom remodels or your affluent people. So that they’re getting that stuff.

LVT is more for like rental grade. That’s true. That’s a very good point. That’s a very good point. And then on the right side, we see four sinks. Whenever they’re upgrading sinks. Of course, the undermount sinks took the cake at 65% and then, the drop-in sinks were second and I was surprised vessel sinks.

We even made third place. Cause I thought those are a dated, but I think again, I’m not keeping up with the trends. So I know, what do you think about those vessels sinks that you see in the fancy bathrooms? So like the one where it’s like a bonsai pick a ball, it looks like a giant salad bowl.

Yeah. I’ll be honest, man. I don’t know what the weather undermount Drophead vessel. I don’t know until you said vessel and that I didn’t have call it. Who wants to get there for that one? Yeah. I just don’t care about that stuff. No you’re the pragmatic guy though.

So if we asked your wife, it might be different, right? Yeah. Yeah. She doesn’t know. But the last, just a slide I was going to talk to is I’m talking about premium features for toilets, showers and tub. So one thing I agreed with in this was the one-piece toilets. You can see, , 20%. Of renovations had one piece Torres.

I really liked those one piece toilets. It’s the one that the tank on top is, it’s one piece with the base so that it’s not screwed in. You don’t have to worry about any leaks in between. Sometimes if you lean back on the tank or you push it, that’s it creates a crack or the seal breaks and it starts leaking so simple easier to clean.

There’s no. Crevices and let at times the base of the one-piece toilets drop straight down. So there’s less dust to collect around the the edges. Something I didn’t care for so much that I not to say I disagreed, but the premium features for the shower, they talked about those rainfall shower heads, where it feels like it’s, it’s a big square and it’s like raining on you.

That was a 58%. Of installs had those as well as the dual showers, which are, I believe where the jets are right in front of you. And they’re shooting horizontally for me. I’ve used those at the hotels and I don’t really care for it. I’m old school. I like the high pressure to shoot the soap off of my hair and kind of feels weird when.

Something’s coming at me horizontally, but that’s just me. So give me one of those high efficiency things that you need to stay in the shower for 20 minutes you do something like, Oh yeah, those are super bad. Yeah. Then those, yeah. It’s like really mini sprees. We install them and all the apartments.

Oh yeah. Talk about money savers. That’s a great money saver from that standpoint. Yeah. It’d be being green, then that’s a different story though. Yeah. So , if you want a copy of the 20, 20 years how’s bathroom trends study, just shoot me an email and I can send it your way. So about 33 pages and I just tried to pull out what I thought was interesting.

So yeah, if you guys haven’t checked out my podcasts, we’ll pass the cashflow all about investing on the mainland for cashflow. But the free giveaway this month is a free buy and hold analyzer. And this thing called the bird calculator. I’m not a big fan of this burst stuff, which stands for buy rent, rehab, you finance.

But if you want to do it, I used to go in knowing your numbers. You can go download it simple past the castle.com/returns and download it there. But yeah, little teaching point. Paying off debt. I pulled up this check from 2011. We didn’t know each other back then. Did we? I don’t think so. Yeah, that was before BiggerPockets was around, right?

Yeah. So this is one of the checks where I would pay down my mortgage and then I realized what a mistake that was, and she saw. And I knew it didn’t make sense, but everything gets you taught right. Pay down debt, pay down that. But I will be one to tell you, that’s a tool use tools for the right job.

This might be the reason why I’ll ever be stocks is of 16% this year. If you look on the right side, that’s the amount of money that got pumped into the system the last five months. And. This is what’s surprising. Like you look at 2008, 2009, there was a lot of stimulus, but nothing compared to what it is in the last five months.

Yeah. That’s true. It’s being supported. Yep. So John Burns puts together these reports, different markets that he likes. And I think the real story is, yeah, I heard about it is the max Exodus out of San Francisco, New York. Expensive parts of California and going to more than the Midwest, South, Texas, and uncle bill Gates had a little predictor.

Some people don’t like them, but he had a phase, one health crisis. He got that one, we had 10 weeks of lockdown. He thought it was going to take 18 months to get a vaccine, took us what nine, nine or 10. Rented as it is it’s a fake vaccine, right? It’s an NRA or whatever they call it.

Wasn’t like the normal vaccines that we get. That’s cool. That’s pretty quick, right? It’s like super fast. Yeah. And then he also, I don’t know why the heck they’re asking bill Gates this stuff, but he also predicted that home buying. The market would take a very long time to recovery.

So he was completely wrong on that. We had just a nice bull run with prices going up and pretty much every single market due to low supply, billionaires got rich through COVID because they pivoted their business. Yeah, there’s always opportunity out there, people to capitalize on it. Jim Rickards.

Have you heard of that guy, but he’s a per repair. So I interviewed him last week or it might’ve been Monday. They just go by, but he’s right. He’s got this new book out, the new great depression. And I was expecting him again to let off a scuffle with him. Cause he’s like economists, I’m not to each big fan of economists because.

They’re like the weather man. They just make a bunch of predictions and change it when it doesn’t happen. And they’re never in the game, they never have money. They never have any investments. So they’re out of touch with reality, in my opinion, their academics. Yeah. Other academics that Howard Drake gets guys, right?

Like he’s the Hawaii guy, right? I’m like, I want to know what’s in his portfolio. I don’t want to hear his predictions. I want to know what he’s doing. Maybe he’s not doing it. I want to know his network. I want to know what’s under the hood, but yeah, Mr. Rickards said here that basically do not expect two, three, 5% GDP growth every year.

Like how we’ve been saying the last generations instead to expect maybe a zero to 2% increase every year. And I was like I’m cool with that. That’s fine with me. My expectations aren’t that high, and that he says, that’s the new great depression like a Japan in a way

pulled this one out. And if you heard about this project, a cool renovation of an older apartment, hi at the address and it’s somewhere downtown. But yeah, it’s cool to see these types of properties get rehabilitated,

but going back to the mainland stuff, if you are checking this out on the YouTube channel, we have a map of the United States. You see where a lot of the red is getting out of Seattle port plan Bay area, Los Angeles. And moving forward to places that are a lot less budget friendly and less crowded.

And one of the big headlines is of course, everybody is getting the heck out of California. If you watch any bit of YouTube, every single influencers, making a YouTube video on getting out of California, it’s such a big trend that just by having that in your video, it pulls a lot of things. Readers and viewers, because it is so popular.

Good to know. So if HP, they were the startups in the Bay area, and now they’re fleeing to Texas just like Tesla, just like many other companies out there because of put taxes out there. Effective rate for growth for multi-family. It was flat line this year, but that’s to be expected, right?

It’s a pandemic, have new single-family rental tenants coming from urban areas. And so 59% removing from urban locations, 41% moving from suburban locations. So this is a general trend of people getting out of the business court district. Going to a little bit more suburb type areas. Yeah. This is why ever beach in maca.

Kilo is single families are off the hook when you know that wasn’t the case before. Yeah. I don’t know. Th I think Hawaii is weird though. Like it’s, Hawaii is like the Island on that night. It’s just a long piece on the cause he gobbled up mountains, but like in a normal. It States ever say it grows outward like a web.

But I guess, yeah. People want to get away from the Seattle or maybe it’s just, they can’t afford it too. Yeah it’s the way they develop too. Because like you said, typically they talk about the urban sprawl where if it starts in Honolulu and starts to go out. But I think when they tried to do, a couple, a, the second city and Colina was that 20 years ago, it, they just said, okay, we’ll go all the way out there and just build, so that kind of.

Threw everything off and not in hindsight being 2020 the urban planners look at it and say, that may not have been the way to go, it is what it is, right? Yeah. People want to work, not really in the city unless they have to for connection, or, but I think people would rather just take a little shorter drive to the, the middle market.

Five story, high rise, like Milani has some of those, I think a small office building. I think so. Hopefully it has that. Yeah. So three big trends for multi-family and you could probably make the case for single families in 2021, a banner year for the transactions, because things are going to somewhat normalcy by mid to late 20, 21.

And just a lot of heads up transactional demand. People were frozen with the whole COVID-19 and also the election too, which came and went. The second thing was the crowding of the South East capital markets. So the, like it’s at the general trend to get out of those high price areas to more places that make more sense financially, economically.

And. A temporary boost for the suburbs that you just talking about on the last page with the remote worker cultural sort of sticking around and coupled with the desire to live in less than populated areas. Yeah. Should be interesting. And like you said, temporary, it should be interesting when people are starting to have to go back to work and now have to start fighting that traffic again.

And I call how We used to see, then that side we might, out in the suburbs might not be as appealing as it was earlier this year. Yeah. Yeah. But COVID accelerated a lot of trends, right? A lot of employers got confident. That’s true. Yeah. That is a very good point. My ordering from California pizza kitchen and some other restaurants.

It’s pretty sleek using those apps or stuff now. Oh yeah. Yeah. So $900 billion relief package. Got signed very recently. This is the latest round of stimulus. Everybody should have got their checks. You didn’t make too much, you got your checks. And a lot of this is somehow probably flows down to investors and the general public.

But I think that generally a lot of people are boarding this cash. They’re just paying down debt, keeping into savings accounts, very logical, but that’s not what the government wants. The government kind of needs it to get into the system spent yeah. Need to spend it. Yeah. Yeah. So we talked about stocks.

This is something I’m interested in investing in, like investing in websites and stuff like that because no. So like Blackstone, the big hedge fund, they’re buying ancestry.com, buying a website that has existing cashflow that they could do value add, or can improve the business. It’s like a digital asset that you can buy.

But I think , what I don’t like about stocks is like, you can appreciate the value that you can’t increase value just in Bibles. So high. I don’t think that builds like a C well, you can get lucky here and there and you can buy an option, but , real wealth comes to those who create value.

And you can do a plug for the mastermind this year. We’re not going to be able to do it in Hawaii. But we’re going to do it for Chile. We’re going to have almost a hundred people come into this. Wow. It might, you might help out. Yeah. Yeah. I had fun last year. That was the one we did last year.

They have to do it. Hi, I’m super bummed that we’re not having additional. Nope, no pick-up ball, no pickle. No. Knockout room. What does that room? Yeah. Yeah. They escape from escape rooms. They’re out of business now. I think that was a bummer, but that’s okay. How many days are this one for two days.

And I think it’s cool because look at then like already a, how many people registered, like so many other people are going to see the kind of people that we have in this school. So people want to register. You got another week simple, passive cashflow.com/bubble. And but yeah, if nobody has anything else to get any parting words, 13, what are you up to this month? This month? I am doing some refinances. I. Didn’t realize call me foolish, but I’m only doing my refinances now and that, in terms of some of my investment properties on the mainland, so China hit up a bunch of them all at one time.

And hopefully, bring down my debt servicing by a lot. I got a letter from my lender. It was a portfolio loan and they were calling my note due here in the next few months. And I was like, what did I do? But then it was a five-year note and they get you to five years already is a commercial.

And then, yeah. So you just got to refund it. It’s a little single family home, but Oh, that thing. So I don’t have to go through the trouble of refinancing then one of the last few ones you have. Yeah. Yeah. I should just fire. So bad thing. If somebody wants to buy up turnkey rental in Birmingham, No, but yeah, it’s been five years since I got that.

That one there. Oh yeah. I’ll hit you on. Maybe I’ll throw it into my solo 401k or something. I dunno. Cheap.

Yeah. I have something here, but all right guys, we’ll turn the recording off here and we’ll see you guys next week. Bye. See ya, Mike.